Posts Tagged ‘free ebook’

DJIA’s 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?

DJIA’s 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line? 

By Elliott Wave International

Moving averages are one of the most widely followed indicator in technical analysis.  Simply put, when the price of an index or stock stays above a particular price moving average line on a chart, that price level serves as support -- a level where buyers reside. If the price falls below a moving average line and "can’t" break through from the underside, this price level is a line of resistance -- a price level where sellers hover.  That’s an easy explanation of moving averages for you.

A commonly watched line is the 200-day moving average.

After the DJIA fell below its 200-day moving average in May, prices remained mainly below the line until June 15, when the market rose 213 points. But, as this chart from Elliott Wave International’s June 16 Short Term Update shows, the NYSE volume has remained muted:

DJIA's 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?

"There was no follow-through today. More stocks closed down than up on the day on the NYSE, within the S&P 500 and also for the DJ Composite. Today’s Big Board volume was similarly slow relative to yesterday. …" -- Steven Hochberg, Short Term Update, June 16, 2010

With a lack of buying conviction, how long will the stock indexes remain above the 200-day moving average?

For the answer, you need to look at the DJIA’s Elliott wave structure. It strongly suggests the market will move in a definite direction in a matter of days or weeks.

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Learn to integrate Elliott wave analysis with other technical disciplines. Read the FREE Ultimate Technical Analysis eBook to discover some of the favorite technical analysis methods used by the analysts at Elliott Wave International.  Learn more and download your free, 50-page technical analysis ebook here.

 


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Market Myths Exposed: Inflation Is Not A Threat, Deflation Is

Market Myths Exposed: Inflation Is Not A Threat, Deflation Is 
Our free eBook reveals the 10 most common financial misconceptions 

Dragon breathing fire

By Nico Isaac, at Elliott Wave International 

Most people are confident they can recognize a myth when they hear one: Wearing a hat causes baldness; eating a bunch of carrots gives you perfect vision; ‘light’ cigarettes are better for your health than the regular kind.

But what about this sentence: Inflation is the number one threat to the US economy? Ask the mainstream experts, and this statement is in no way a fabrication of the truth; it is truth itself. Case in point, this recent insight from a reputable news source:

"Given the extraordinary amounts of government spending, we believe inflation is likely to rear its ugly head." (CNBC)

It looks reliable. It sounds reliable. But the reality is different. That fact is the subject of Chapter Three in Club EWI’s free educational eBook Market Myths Exposed, aptly titled "Myth No. 3: Worry About Inflation Rather Than Deflation."

With groundbreaking insight from EWI’s president Bob Prechter, this chapter reveals how the most vital financial players have been led right up to the water of easy money. Yet, like the saying goes, no amount of incentive — be it record low interest rates or trillions of dollars in federal bailouts — has gotten them to "drink." Here, the "Market Myths" chapter sheds light on this global leverage fast:

  • Banks: The premier dispensers of credit are about "95% invested in mortgages," which can fall in dollar value at the start of a crisis. Also, a chart of Credit Standards At All Banks since 1997 reveals a new trend of tighter lending criterion. Both are deflationary.
  • Consumers: The premier devourers of credit are paying off their balances. See: chart of Total Consumer Credit (Annual Rate of Change) since 2000. This is deflationary.
  • Private Equity: "Of the ten largest leveraged buyout deals since 2007, four have defaulted and two are in distress. Just in this small group, there is nearly one-half a trillion dollars worth of loans headed for the dump."
  • Small Businesses are self-liquidating; meaning, they create profits to pay back loans versus consumers. YET, "Market Myths" Chart of Bank Loan Availability to these small Enterprises contains a big, black arrow


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Individual Investors Have Jumped Into Another Fire

Individual Investors Have Jumped Into Another Fire

By Robert Prechter

[The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.]

Moscow’s apartment building fire under control

First they bought into the “stocks for the long run” case and got killed. Then they jumped on the commodity bandwagon and got killed. Many investors are buying back into these very same markets, but others are running to what they perceive as safe “yields” in the municipal bond market. So far this year, individual investors have “poured a record $55 billion” (Bloomberg, 11/12) into muni bond funds, with the pace running $2b. per week in August and September; many other investors are buying munis outright. These must be the people who tell us that they can’t live without “yield” and also cannot imagine their city, county or state government going bust. But as Conquer the Crash warned and as The Elliott Wave Theorist has reiterated, the muni bond market is heading for disaster.

Municipalities have borrowed more than they can repay, they have pension liabilities that they cannot meet (up to a trillion dollars’ worth, according to Moody’s), and tax receipts are falling. The only reason that states haven’t failed yet is the so-called “stimulus package,” which took money from savers, investors and taxpayers—thereby impoverishing the people who live in the various states—and gave it to state governments to spend so they would not have to cease their profligate spending. But political pressures will eventually cut off this gravy train. In the 2010-2017 period, the muni bond market will become awash in defaults. The leap in optimism since March, which has shown up in every financial market, has fueled a retreat in muni bond yields to their lowest level since 1967 and narrowed the spread between muni bond yields and Treasuries.

This rush to buy municipal bonds is occurring right on the cusp of a dramatic decline in their values. While many individuals are loading up right at the peak so they can participate in the next major market disaster, smarter investors, such as insurance companies Allstate and Guardian Life, are getting out. Our recommendation for investors is 100 percent safety, and such a program does not include muni bonds.

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This is a message and free e-book offer from Elliott Wave International:

You’ve no doubt heard the old mantras "stocks for the long haul," "diversify," "buy and hold."…
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If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This

If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This
The major stock indexes are the wrong place to look

By Robert Folsom, courtesy of Elliott Wave International

A well-known business magazine recently published a story with this headline:

Stocks: The "Loss" Decade
A disastrous ten years for the stock market ends in just a month. Will the turning of a new decade change investors’ luck?

One sentence from the story itself tells you most of what you need to know: "The ten years since Y2K are on track to produce the worst total returns for investors since the 1930s."

Of course, no one should really be surprised by a story that says the stock indexes did poorly over the past decade. That’s not news. The facts in the article more or less repeat what our own Elliott Wave Financial Forecast reported last March, complete with this chart:

It’s safe to say that this business magazine article is the first of many the media will run before the year’s end, as part of their "decade wrap-up" stories. And like this story, most or all those like will share the same basic assumption: stock investors did poorly because the stock indexes did poorly.

And that assumption, dear reader, is erroneous. The truth is far uglier.

Here’s what I mean. If you want to know how real stock investors really behave, the major stock indexes are the wrong place to look. Published results from firms like Dalbar and Vanguard consistently show that, over the past 25 years, individual investors and mutual fund shareholders have had average returns that are half (at best) of the annual returns of the broader stock market.

So, for example, in 20 years from Jan. 1, 1989 through Dec. 31, 2008, the S&P 500 showed a 8.35% gain (Dalbar). Over that same period, equity investors showed a 1.87% gain. And if you include the 2.89% inflation rate in those years, investors show a 1.02% loss.

You can shift to a timeframe which excludes the bear market that started in 2007, but it doesn’t change the basic story. From January 1984 though December 2002, the Dalbar data shows that equity investors earned an annual average of 2.6% vs. the S&P 500′s 12.2% annual average. The annual inflation rate for period was 3.14%.

What’s more, similar studies and surveys also…
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Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

At EWI’s Q&A Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions daily. Here’s an interesting one that several subscribers have recently asked:

In Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, Short Term Update and elsewhere, you say that market sentiment is very bullish right now, which historically has indicated a market top. Is the sentiment really that bullish? I get a different feeling when I look around."

Elliott wave analysis is very visual; we’re all about charts. And often, a single look at a well-made chart can instantly show you what’s really been going on. Take a look at this chart from the December 2 issue of our Mon.-Wed.-Fri. Short Term Update:

stock market bears in hibernation

In the words of Steve Hochberg, the Update’s editor:

We see the bears’ retreat in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has dropped sharply the past three days to where it is nearly as low as it’s recent November 25 extreme of 20.05. We see it in the 10-day average of NYSE daily volume, which is at its lowest point since the bear-market rally started in March. And we see it in today’s release of the most recent Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey. The above chart shows the percentage of stock market bears, which has contracted to 16.7 percent… There are fewer bears now than at the October 2007 stock market peak and still fewer than at the June-July 2007 top in the NYSE a/d line.

By itself, a sentiment extreme — whether pessimistic or optimistic — is not a guarantee of a market reversal. (Nothing is, really: Financial markets exist in the world of probabilities, not certainties.) But couple sentiment measures with a longer-term Elliott wave pattern, and now you have a leg to stand on. 

*****

Elliott Wave International has extended their "downloading deadline" for their free 42-Page eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci. The eBook, created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, is now available free until December 7, 2009. Go here to download your free eBook.

 


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Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

At EWI’s Q&A Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions daily. Here’s an interesting one that several subscribers have recently asked:

In Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, Short Term Update and elsewhere, you say that market sentiment is very bullish right now, which historically has indicated a market top. Is the sentiment really that bullish? I get a different feeling when I look around."

Elliott wave analysis is very visual; we’re all about charts. And often, a single look at a well-made chart can instantly show you what’s really been going on. Take a look at this chart from the December 2 issue of our Mon.-Wed.-Fri. Short Term Update:

stock market bears in hibernation

In the words of Steve Hochberg, the Update’s editor:

We see the bears’ retreat in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has dropped sharply the past three days to where it is nearly as low as it’s recent November 25 extreme of 20.05. We see it in the 10-day average of NYSE daily volume, which is at its lowest point since the bear-market rally started in March. And we see it in today’s release of the most recent Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey. The above chart shows the percentage of stock market bears, which has contracted to 16.7 percent… There are fewer bears now than at the October 2007 stock market peak and still fewer than at the June-July 2007 top in the NYSE a/d line.

By itself, a sentiment extreme — whether pessimistic or optimistic — is not a guarantee of a market reversal. (Nothing is, really: Financial markets exist in the world of probabilities, not certainties.) But couple sentiment measures with a longer-term Elliott wave pattern, and now you have a leg to stand on. 

*****

Elliott Wave International has extended their "downloading deadline" for their free 42-Page eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci. The eBook, created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, is now available free until December 7, 2009. Go here to download your free eBook.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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Zero Hedge

"They've Left Me High And Dry": Here Is The Real Reason Companies Have Drawn Down A Record $293 Billion In Revolvers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One week ago, we reported that starting exactly one month ago on March 5, an unprecedented wave of corporate revolver draws was unleashed, resulting in what JPMorgan calculated was a record $208BN in revolving credit facilities being fully drawn (for the full list of companies see ...



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ValueWalk

AZO and ORLY: Which one is a better buy?

By Marek Mscichowski. Originally published at ValueWalk.

AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) and O’Reilly Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:ORLY): Both auto parts retailers are uncorrelated to S&P 500, but which one is a better buy?

By Price Earnings Ratio Tracker Team

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Over recent months I have created valuation models for the two main competitors in the auto parts retail business – AutoZone, the leader on the coasts with a $26 billion market ca...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Repeating 2000 & 2007 Patterns Almost Exactly?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Does History Repeat? Is does rhyme sometimes!!!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past 20-years.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2000-2003 bear market. On the week of 3/23/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear market resumed.

The S&P declined by 50% during the 2007-2009 bear market. On the week of 3/21/2001, it experienced its first counter-trend rally, which lasted 8-weeks, before the bear ...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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