Posts Tagged ‘FRX’

Testy Tuesday – How Many Times Will You Fall for the Same Thing?

Isn't this exciting!

The pre-markets are up 1% after a long weekend.  That hasn't happened since – two weeks ago!  Of course last Tuesday, we were jammed up as well and the Tuesday after Christmas, we were jammed up as well but THIS TIME – we're REALLY feeling it, right?  

The funniest thing is the way they have dozens of idiots saying all sorts of ridiculous things on CNBC and not one of them mentions even the vaguest hint of deja vu in what has been the most consistent pattern of late 2011, early 2012.

On this Dollar chart from Scott Pluschau, you can see the dives that are occasionally taken to goose the markets and we have another one this morning with the Dollar down 1%, making the 1% pop in the futures slightly less impressive when taken in context.  

This time may be different because, according to Friday's Legacy Commitments of Traders Report released by the CTFC, Commercial Traders are now net short on the Dollar to the tune of 59,023 to just 6,061 longs – about a 10:1 ratio that is EXTREME to say the least.  Non-Reportable, Non-Commercial Traders (ie. Speculators), on the other hand, are almost 10:1 the other way with 9,765 long contracts and just 1,390 shorts.  Reportable Non-Commercial Traders (Hedge Funds) fill out the rest of the longs with 52,644 long contracts against just 8,057 shorts.  

To some extent, hedge funds are also speculators and usually you would assume their bets are covered but that's kind of hard to see with a 7:1 long/short ratio.  Keep in mind that Commercial Traders are institutions with business reasons to hedge – they are not going to be flip-flopping their positions so they will NOT be buying Dollars just because they get cheaper.  So, if it all hits the fan and the Funds shift to short – we could get quite a tidal-wave of Dollar selling.

That's an odd sort of positions for the speculating class to be taking (super-long on the Dollar) considering the possibility of a highly dilutive quantitative event (QE3) in the very near future.   This is why we can't be gung-ho bearish – tempting though it may be and this is why every little rumor of Europe being "fixed" sends the Dollar flying down – there are no buyers – only nervous long Dollar holders.  

As you…
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Bulls Snap Up Forest Labs Calls, While Bears Take A Shot At Beam

Today’s tickers: BEAM, FRX, HES & SMG

BEAM - Beam, Inc. – The bourbon maker’s shares slipped 0.40% to $49.85 in early-afternoon trade, but may not rally much ahead of December expiration, by the looks of call selling in the front month. Though the holiday season, and perhaps market turmoil, may spur some to reach for the Jim Beam bottle or pass the Courvoisier, at least one investor is taking a bearish stance on the liquor producer. It looks like the investor sold more than 660 calls at the Dec. $50 strike to pocket premium of $1.10 apiece. The trader keeps the full amount of premium received as long as shares in Beam, Inc. fail to rally above $50.00 at expiration day next month. If the investor holds no position in the stock, the naked-short stance in calls could result in losses to the upside in the event that BEAM’s shares rally 2.5% over the current price to surpass the upper breakeven point at $51.10 by December expiration. Shares in Beam, Inc. topped $51.10 as recently as November 15, the same day the stock peaked at $51.35, its highest point since the company started trading as BEAM, formerly Fortune Brands (FO), on the New York Stock Exchange.

FRX - Forest Laboratories, Inc. – Shares in the drug maker are up 1.4% at $29.41 this afternoon, and it looks like a number of options traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the next few months. Investors gearing up for a Forest Labs rally exchanged more than 4,400 calls at the Dec. $30 strike against open interest of just 99 contracts. It appears most of the contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.60 each, by bullish players who may profit at expiration next month should shares in FRX increase another 4.0% to trade above the average breakeven point at $30.60. Call options accumulation spread to the Dec. $31 and $32 strikes, where another 230 and 200 contracts were snapped up at premiums of $0.31 and $0.15 each, respectively. Bullish sentiment on the pharmaceuticals firm spread to the Jan. 2012 $31 strike, where traders picked up 2,100 calls for an average premium of $0.93 a-pop. Investors long the calls make money if shares in Forest Labs surge 8.6% to surpass the average breakeven price of $31.93 at expiration next year. January 2012 contract call options expire several days after…
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Which Way Wednesday: Through the Roof or Smashed into a Thousand Pieces?

 

GRANDPA JOE: But this roof is made of glass. It’ll shatter into a thousand pieces. We’ll be cut to ribbons!

WILLY WONKA: Probably

Is today going to be the day?  After pressing against our breakout levels for a week, today do we should finally have the gas to get over the top or will our Must Hold levels keep acting like a solid barrier?  Oddly enough, I was asking the same question on August 30th, when I asked if we were "Breaking Higher or Dressing Windows?"   My comment from that morning works for today as well:  

No way to slow down.  That line from Tull’s "Locamotive Breath" keeps playing in my head as I look at these rumor-driven markets and contemplate that we MUST keep going higher – or we will fall.  On the whole, that’s not generally a winning long-term investing premise BUT – it does so happen to be the entire principal on which space travel is based so let’s not discount it entirely.   

Willy Wonka understood stock market physics, there had to be enough power to get through that overhead resistance or it was going to be a very painful test of the top (like the one we had in August).  Since our July dip, we’ve come back for another try at our Must Hold lines 4 times but the volume has been substantially lower than it was in July, leading us to believe it is only TradeBots, and not Oompa Loompas, who are buying this market. 

Can TradeBots alone give
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News Corp. Options Predict Pie In The Face For Bears

Today’s tickers: NWSA, OIH, FRX & NVLS

NWSA - News Corp. – The phone hacking scandal that dragged Rupert Murdoch’s media empire through the mud won’t stifle shares in News Corp. forever, by the looks of one massive transaction in long-dated call options this morning. Shares in NWSA dropped more than 25.0% to as low as $13.38 in the weeks following well-publicized allegations that News of the World hacked murder victim Milly Dowler’s mobile phone. Efforts by Murdoch & Murdoch to apologize for actions they said occurred without their knowledge at the company’s tabloid, as well as other steps taken recently to soothe investor concerns, helped shares in NWSA recover in August. The stock still stands roughly 14.0% off its highest point in July, after slipping 1.3% during today’s session to $15.98 as of 12:00 pm in New York.

Huge prints in January 2013 contract call options on the media company within 30 minutes of the opening bell today suggests one big player sees shares in News Corp. not only recovering over the next year and a half, but also possibly rising to their highest since 2000. Just before 10:00 am ET, a QCC order to buy a 50,000-lot Jan. 2013 $20/$25 call spread at a net premium of $0.90 per contract was entered at the PHLX. The QCC order, which allows valid and executable orders to immediately cross upon arrival with no auction, protects the anonymity of the trader and involves a stock component executed away from the Exchange on which the options were crossed. It is unclear what the stock component is at this time, but it’s worth noting that such knowledge could alter one’s interpretation of the transaction. Keeping that disclaimer in mind, it appears the call spread is looking for shares in News Corp. to…
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Options on Las Vegas Sands Active Ahead of Earnings

Today’s tickers: LVS, FRX, FCX & SD

LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp. – A number of options players hit the like button on Las Vegas Sands call options today ahead of the casino operator’s first-quarter earnings report after the final bell on Tuesday. Shares in the LVS increased as much as 2.6% this morning to secure an intraday high of $48.25, but currently stand just 0.60% higher on the session at $47.29 as of 12:50pm in New York. A number of pre-earnings speculators targeted the weeklies to position for the price of the underlying to extend gains ahead of expiration on Friday. Investors purchased around 2,250 calls at the May ’06 $48 strike for an average premium of $1.45 a-pop. Call buyers at this strike profit in the event that the stock rallies 4.6% over the current price to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $49.45 by expiration. Bulls paid an average premium of $0.77 per contract to pick up roughly 1,600 calls at the higher May ‘06 $50 strike price. Meanwhile, investors populating the May ’06 $52.5 strike sold 1,300 calls to receive an average premium of $0.28 each. Call selling at this strike may represent a near-term ceiling on shares in LVS for some investors. Traders keep the premium pocketed on the transaction as long as the price of the underlying stock fails to exceed $52.50 at expiration. Low-delta call buying occurred up at the May ’06 $55 strike where some 250 calls were picked up for an average premium of $0.09 per contract. More than 61,900 option contracts have changed hands on Las Vegas Sands as of 1:00pm. Options implied volatility on the stock is up 6.2% to arrive at 46.57% in early afternoon trade, one day ahead of earnings.

FRX - Forest
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Blackboard Options Active

Today’s tickers: BBBB, CREE, HBI & FRX

BBBB - Blackboard, Inc. – Shares in the provider of enterprise software applications and services to the education industry jumped 34.8% to an intraday and new all-time high of $50.10 on news the company received unsolicited buyout offers. Blackboard has reportedly hired Barclays Capital as its financial advisor as it evaluates takeover bids. Buyers of May $40 strike call options on Monday saw premium on the then out-of-the-money contracts explode during the current session. It looks like investors paid an average premium of $0.40 apiece for roughly 1,200 calls at the May $40 strike yesterday afternoon. The huge run up in the price of the underlying shares, which were halted for a brief period earlier today, lifted the asking price on the calls up to $10.50 per contract as of 2:50pm in New York. Traders populating Blackboard options during the current session focused in on the May $50 strike calls. Approximately 2,500 calls changed hands at that strike today. Two-way trading traffic in the calls suggests that slightly more of the options were sold than purchased, for an average premium of $1.73 each. Blackboard is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the market closes on May 4, 2011.

CREE - Cree, Inc. – Bull call spreads were purchased on the maker of light emitting diode (LED) products straight out of the gate this morning ahead of Cree’s third-quarter earnings report after the final bell. Shares in the Durham, NC-based company are currently down 1.5% to stand at $40.46 as of 11:25am in New York. The stock is hovering just above its 52-week low of $40.25 set on Monday, which is less than half of Cree’s 52-week high of $82.85 recorded nearly one year ago on April 20, 2010. Traders initiating debit call spreads may…
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Bullish Players Pick Up Calls at Staples Ahead of Earnings

Today’s tickers: SPLS, MRVL, FRX & ERIC

SPLS - Staples, Inc. – Call options on the office supplies retailer are flying off the shelves ahead of the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which is slated for release before the opening bell tolls on Wednesday. Shares in the name are up 1.35% to stand at $21.22 as of 12:00pm in New York. Bullish players are out in numbers, buying up call options in the March and April contracts, to position for shares to extend gains in the near term. Meanwhile, there is a bit of put buying in the front month this morning, with some 1,200 March $21 puts picked up by pessimistic traders for an average premium of $0.55 each. The largest bullish bet on Staples was the purchase of 9,000 calls at the March $22 strike at a premium of $0.40 each. The transaction appears to be tied to the sale of 270,000 shares of the underlying at $21.11 each. The strategy is likely a delta neutral play, with a delta of 0.30 indicated by the size of the stock and option combination employed. The trader could make out on the short stock leg of the trade if shares in SPLS drop post-earnings, however, the parameters of the transaction indicate substantially higher potential gains if shares fly higher in the time remaining to March expiration. A total of 11,395 calls changed hands at the March $22 strike in early-afternoon trade versus previously existing open interest of just 1,520 contracts. Like-minded optimists looked to the April $22 strike to buy roughly 2,000 calls for an average premium of $0.55 per contract. Call buyers at the April $22 strike start making money in the event that Staples’ shares surge 6.3% to surpass the average breakeven price of $22.55 by April expiration. Options implied volatility on the office supplies firm is up 4.8% at 30.82% as of 12:15pm.…
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Demand for FedEx Corp. Calls Jumps

Today’s tickers: FDX, XRT, FRX & HANS

FDX - FedEx Corp. – Shares of the delivery services firm increased as much as 3.4% in the first half of the trading session to secure an intraday high of $90.49 after it was upgraded to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’ with a target share price of $111.00 at Credit Suisse. The positive ratings change and subsequent rally in the price of the underlying shares spurred demand for near-term call options. Bullish players expecting FedEx to extend gains purchased at least 2,800 now in-the-money calls at the December $90 strike for an average premium of $2.13 a-pop. Call buyers are poised to profit should FedEx Corp.’s shares increase another 1.80% over today’s high of $90.49 to exceed the average breakeven price of $92.13 ahead of December expiration. More than 5,800 calls changed hands at the December $90 strike versus previously existing open interest of 4,243 lots at that strike. Options strategists also exchanged 1,400 calls at the higher December $95 strike by 1:15 pm in New York trading. The surge in demand for near-term call options on FDX lifted the stock’s overall reading of options implied volatility 5.9% to 29.91% this afternoon.

XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Put players flocked to the retail SPDR to initiate bearish positions on the fund right out of the gate this morning. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, fell as much as 2.04% to touch down at an intraday low of $46.48. A sizeable ratio put spread drew our attention to the front month where one investor purchased 5,300 in-the-money puts at the December $47 strike for a premium of $1.45 each, and sold 10,600 puts at the lower December $45 strike at a premium…
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Bull Eyes New Highs in United Continental Shares by Year’s End

Today’s tickers: UAL, KSS, ANN, KO, SINA, XLF, FRX & OI

UAL - United Continental Holdings, Inc. – The world’s largest carrier jumped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner earlier today after one bullish options player purchased a large call spread in the December contract. Shares in United Continental rose 0.90% this afternoon to trade at $27.42 as of 3:00 pm. The investor purchased approximately 11,200 calls at the December $29 strike for a premium of $0.72 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher December $31 strike at a premium of $0.32 each. Paying a net $0.40 per contract for the spread, the investor is prepared to profit should shares in UAL surge 7.2% over the current price of $27.42 to surpass the effective breakeven point to the upside at $29.40 by expiration day. The trader is poised to accumulate maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract, roughly $1.792 million, if the airline operator’s shares jump 13.05% and trade above $31.00 by expiration in December.

KSS - Kohl’s Corp. – Massive prints in Kohl’s Corp. call and put options caught our eye this afternoon. Shares of the department store operator that sells nationally recognized as well as privately branded goods increased as much as 4.165% in the second half of the session to touch an intraday high of $52.76. It looks like the investor responsible for the mammoth transaction sold 50,000 puts at the December $50 strike for a premium of $0.85 each, and purchased the same number of calls up at the December $57.5 strike at a premium of $0.30 apiece. The risk reversal was tied to the sale of 2.15 million shares of the underlying stock at a price of $52.12 on a 0.43 delta. The investor receives a net credit…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any way the wind blows, doesn’t really matter

Housing-keeping note: Thanks to WordPress’s destruction of Phil’s Favorites site (and replacement with an invite to sign up for its service!), I’ve been relocating my blog to TypePad.  Benefits: it looks better, is very user friendly and offers an easy way to search archives for any topic. One unique feature is that while exploring the internet, I can simply click on a button to post an excerpt of an interesting article with a link to the full article. That ability allows me to post links to articles that are worth reading when I do not have reprinting permission, such as articles from major news sources. 

The new Favorites site is here.  I’ve also created a website for Dark Horse Hedge, here.  - Ilene 

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any Way the Wind Blows, Doesn’t Really Matter

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Is this the real life? 
Is this just fantasy? 
Caught in a landslide 
No escape from reality 
Open your eyes 
Look up to the skies and see 
I’m just a poor boy (Poor boy) 
I need no sympathy 
Because I’m easy come, easy go 
Little high, little low 
Any way the wind blows 
Doesn’t really matter to me, to me

Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody

 *****

Ilene and I started the Dark Horse Hedge on July 1, 2010 with the goal of helping self-directed investors weather any storm, no matter which way the wind was blowing.  Today completes the second month of publishing the Dark Horse Hedge and we thought it would be a good time to review.  

 

September 1976:  British rock group Queen at Les Ambassadeurs, where they were presented with silver, gold and platinum discs for sales in excess of one million of their hit single 'Bohemian Rhapsody'. The band are, from left to right, John Deacon, Freddie Mercury (Frederick Bulsara, 1946 - 1991), Roger Taylor and Brian May.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

The
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Phil's Favorites

Growth in data breaches shows need for government regulations

 

Growth in data breaches shows need for government regulations

Who is responsible for protecting consumer data? Data breaches are now a regular occurrence, and governments are stepping in. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Michael Parent, Simon Fraser University

Do you remember when 40 million was a large number? Forty million dollars in sales, 40 million customers, 40 million Twitter followers, 40 million protesters — all once conveyed something substantial.

Were it only so for data breaches.

As an academic who has studied data governance for the past 20 years and worked with hundreds of boar...



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Zero Hedge

Anti-Impeachment Democrat Jeff Van Drew Defects To GOP

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Anti-impeachment Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New York has confirmed that he will switch parties and become a Republican, following a lengthy meeting with President Trump, according to Politico.

Van Drew is one of two Democrats who voted 'no' on opening the impeachment inquiry in the first place, and has been a vocal opponent of the effort, according to the repor...



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Chart School

Funds are getting ready to move out of USA

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Just before the hang over in the US equity markets, money will move and take their well earned gains else where. Here is why.

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Charts in video.

US is in the late cycle boom.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




US stock market with the US dollar, they have risen together from 2012. A change of this will force money to move.


Cli...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Euro Breakout In Play? Gold Bulls Sure Hope So!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Euro has spent much of the past 2 years trading in a down-trend.

Though precious metals like Gold have fared well, this has been a bit of a headwind because it means that the US Dollar has remained firm.

Big Test In Play for the Euro

The Euro is testing a confluence of important support just as the downtrend is narrowing and ready for a “break”. That support includes lower falling wedge support and the Euro’s long term up-trend support line (see points 1 and 2).

If the Euro can succeed in breaking out at (3), it would be bullis...



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Insider Scoop

8 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) stock surged 36.4% to $137.00 during Friday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $6.1 billion. The most recent rating by Janney Capital, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $175.00.
  • GlaxoSmithKline, Inc. (NYSE: GSK) shares surged 1.1% to $46.44. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $112.9 billion. According to the most recent rating by UBS, on November 21, the current rating is at Buy.
  • AstraZeneca, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

For decades, Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? How did it gain so much influence? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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