Posts Tagged ‘FRX’

Testy Tuesday – How Many Times Will You Fall for the Same Thing?

Isn't this exciting!

The pre-markets are up 1% after a long weekend.  That hasn't happened since – two weeks ago!  Of course last Tuesday, we were jammed up as well and the Tuesday after Christmas, we were jammed up as well but THIS TIME – we're REALLY feeling it, right?  

The funniest thing is the way they have dozens of idiots saying all sorts of ridiculous things on CNBC and not one of them mentions even the vaguest hint of deja vu in what has been the most consistent pattern of late 2011, early 2012.

On this Dollar chart from Scott Pluschau, you can see the dives that are occasionally taken to goose the markets and we have another one this morning with the Dollar down 1%, making the 1% pop in the futures slightly less impressive when taken in context.  

This time may be different because, according to Friday's Legacy Commitments of Traders Report released by the CTFC, Commercial Traders are now net short on the Dollar to the tune of 59,023 to just 6,061 longs – about a 10:1 ratio that is EXTREME to say the least.  Non-Reportable, Non-Commercial Traders (ie. Speculators), on the other hand, are almost 10:1 the other way with 9,765 long contracts and just 1,390 shorts.  Reportable Non-Commercial Traders (Hedge Funds) fill out the rest of the longs with 52,644 long contracts against just 8,057 shorts.  

To some extent, hedge funds are also speculators and usually you would assume their bets are covered but that's kind of hard to see with a 7:1 long/short ratio.  Keep in mind that Commercial Traders are institutions with business reasons to hedge – they are not going to be flip-flopping their positions so they will NOT be buying Dollars just because they get cheaper.  So, if it all hits the fan and the Funds shift to short – we could get quite a tidal-wave of Dollar selling.

That's an odd sort of positions for the speculating class to be taking (super-long on the Dollar) considering the possibility of a highly dilutive quantitative event (QE3) in the very near future.   This is why we can't be gung-ho bearish – tempting though it may be and this is why every little rumor of Europe being "fixed" sends the Dollar flying down – there are no buyers – only nervous long Dollar holders.  

As you…
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Bulls Snap Up Forest Labs Calls, While Bears Take A Shot At Beam

Today’s tickers: BEAM, FRX, HES & SMG

BEAM - Beam, Inc. – The bourbon maker’s shares slipped 0.40% to $49.85 in early-afternoon trade, but may not rally much ahead of December expiration, by the looks of call selling in the front month. Though the holiday season, and perhaps market turmoil, may spur some to reach for the Jim Beam bottle or pass the Courvoisier, at least one investor is taking a bearish stance on the liquor producer. It looks like the investor sold more than 660 calls at the Dec. $50 strike to pocket premium of $1.10 apiece. The trader keeps the full amount of premium received as long as shares in Beam, Inc. fail to rally above $50.00 at expiration day next month. If the investor holds no position in the stock, the naked-short stance in calls could result in losses to the upside in the event that BEAM’s shares rally 2.5% over the current price to surpass the upper breakeven point at $51.10 by December expiration. Shares in Beam, Inc. topped $51.10 as recently as November 15, the same day the stock peaked at $51.35, its highest point since the company started trading as BEAM, formerly Fortune Brands (FO), on the New York Stock Exchange.

FRX - Forest Laboratories, Inc. – Shares in the drug maker are up 1.4% at $29.41 this afternoon, and it looks like a number of options traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the next few months. Investors gearing up for a Forest Labs rally exchanged more than 4,400 calls at the Dec. $30 strike against open interest of just 99 contracts. It appears most of the contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.60 each, by bullish players who may profit at expiration next month should shares in FRX increase another 4.0% to trade above the average breakeven point at $30.60. Call options accumulation spread to the Dec. $31 and $32 strikes, where another 230 and 200 contracts were snapped up at premiums of $0.31 and $0.15 each, respectively. Bullish sentiment on the pharmaceuticals firm spread to the Jan. 2012 $31 strike, where traders picked up 2,100 calls for an average premium of $0.93 a-pop. Investors long the calls make money if shares in Forest Labs surge 8.6% to surpass the average breakeven price of $31.93 at expiration next year. January 2012 contract call options expire several days after…
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Which Way Wednesday: Through the Roof or Smashed into a Thousand Pieces?

 

GRANDPA JOE: But this roof is made of glass. It’ll shatter into a thousand pieces. We’ll be cut to ribbons!

WILLY WONKA: Probably

Is today going to be the day?  After pressing against our breakout levels for a week, today do we should finally have the gas to get over the top or will our Must Hold levels keep acting like a solid barrier?  Oddly enough, I was asking the same question on August 30th, when I asked if we were "Breaking Higher or Dressing Windows?"   My comment from that morning works for today as well:  

No way to slow down.  That line from Tull’s "Locamotive Breath" keeps playing in my head as I look at these rumor-driven markets and contemplate that we MUST keep going higher – or we will fall.  On the whole, that’s not generally a winning long-term investing premise BUT – it does so happen to be the entire principal on which space travel is based so let’s not discount it entirely.   

Willy Wonka understood stock market physics, there had to be enough power to get through that overhead resistance or it was going to be a very painful test of the top (like the one we had in August).  Since our July dip, we’ve come back for another try at our Must Hold lines 4 times but the volume has been substantially lower than it was in July, leading us to believe it is only TradeBots, and not Oompa Loompas, who are buying this market. 

Can TradeBots alone give
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News Corp. Options Predict Pie In The Face For Bears

Today’s tickers: NWSA, OIH, FRX & NVLS

NWSA - News Corp. – The phone hacking scandal that dragged Rupert Murdoch’s media empire through the mud won’t stifle shares in News Corp. forever, by the looks of one massive transaction in long-dated call options this morning. Shares in NWSA dropped more than 25.0% to as low as $13.38 in the weeks following well-publicized allegations that News of the World hacked murder victim Milly Dowler’s mobile phone. Efforts by Murdoch & Murdoch to apologize for actions they said occurred without their knowledge at the company’s tabloid, as well as other steps taken recently to soothe investor concerns, helped shares in NWSA recover in August. The stock still stands roughly 14.0% off its highest point in July, after slipping 1.3% during today’s session to $15.98 as of 12:00 pm in New York.

Huge prints in January 2013 contract call options on the media company within 30 minutes of the opening bell today suggests one big player sees shares in News Corp. not only recovering over the next year and a half, but also possibly rising to their highest since 2000. Just before 10:00 am ET, a QCC order to buy a 50,000-lot Jan. 2013 $20/$25 call spread at a net premium of $0.90 per contract was entered at the PHLX. The QCC order, which allows valid and executable orders to immediately cross upon arrival with no auction, protects the anonymity of the trader and involves a stock component executed away from the Exchange on which the options were crossed. It is unclear what the stock component is at this time, but it’s worth noting that such knowledge could alter one’s interpretation of the transaction. Keeping that disclaimer in mind, it appears the call spread is looking for shares in News Corp. to…
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Options on Las Vegas Sands Active Ahead of Earnings

Today’s tickers: LVS, FRX, FCX & SD

LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp. – A number of options players hit the like button on Las Vegas Sands call options today ahead of the casino operator’s first-quarter earnings report after the final bell on Tuesday. Shares in the LVS increased as much as 2.6% this morning to secure an intraday high of $48.25, but currently stand just 0.60% higher on the session at $47.29 as of 12:50pm in New York. A number of pre-earnings speculators targeted the weeklies to position for the price of the underlying to extend gains ahead of expiration on Friday. Investors purchased around 2,250 calls at the May ’06 $48 strike for an average premium of $1.45 a-pop. Call buyers at this strike profit in the event that the stock rallies 4.6% over the current price to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $49.45 by expiration. Bulls paid an average premium of $0.77 per contract to pick up roughly 1,600 calls at the higher May ‘06 $50 strike price. Meanwhile, investors populating the May ’06 $52.5 strike sold 1,300 calls to receive an average premium of $0.28 each. Call selling at this strike may represent a near-term ceiling on shares in LVS for some investors. Traders keep the premium pocketed on the transaction as long as the price of the underlying stock fails to exceed $52.50 at expiration. Low-delta call buying occurred up at the May ’06 $55 strike where some 250 calls were picked up for an average premium of $0.09 per contract. More than 61,900 option contracts have changed hands on Las Vegas Sands as of 1:00pm. Options implied volatility on the stock is up 6.2% to arrive at 46.57% in early afternoon trade, one day ahead of earnings.

FRX - Forest
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Blackboard Options Active

Today’s tickers: BBBB, CREE, HBI & FRX

BBBB - Blackboard, Inc. – Shares in the provider of enterprise software applications and services to the education industry jumped 34.8% to an intraday and new all-time high of $50.10 on news the company received unsolicited buyout offers. Blackboard has reportedly hired Barclays Capital as its financial advisor as it evaluates takeover bids. Buyers of May $40 strike call options on Monday saw premium on the then out-of-the-money contracts explode during the current session. It looks like investors paid an average premium of $0.40 apiece for roughly 1,200 calls at the May $40 strike yesterday afternoon. The huge run up in the price of the underlying shares, which were halted for a brief period earlier today, lifted the asking price on the calls up to $10.50 per contract as of 2:50pm in New York. Traders populating Blackboard options during the current session focused in on the May $50 strike calls. Approximately 2,500 calls changed hands at that strike today. Two-way trading traffic in the calls suggests that slightly more of the options were sold than purchased, for an average premium of $1.73 each. Blackboard is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the market closes on May 4, 2011.

CREE - Cree, Inc. – Bull call spreads were purchased on the maker of light emitting diode (LED) products straight out of the gate this morning ahead of Cree’s third-quarter earnings report after the final bell. Shares in the Durham, NC-based company are currently down 1.5% to stand at $40.46 as of 11:25am in New York. The stock is hovering just above its 52-week low of $40.25 set on Monday, which is less than half of Cree’s 52-week high of $82.85 recorded nearly one year ago on April 20, 2010. Traders initiating debit call spreads may…
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Bullish Players Pick Up Calls at Staples Ahead of Earnings

Today’s tickers: SPLS, MRVL, FRX & ERIC

SPLS - Staples, Inc. – Call options on the office supplies retailer are flying off the shelves ahead of the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which is slated for release before the opening bell tolls on Wednesday. Shares in the name are up 1.35% to stand at $21.22 as of 12:00pm in New York. Bullish players are out in numbers, buying up call options in the March and April contracts, to position for shares to extend gains in the near term. Meanwhile, there is a bit of put buying in the front month this morning, with some 1,200 March $21 puts picked up by pessimistic traders for an average premium of $0.55 each. The largest bullish bet on Staples was the purchase of 9,000 calls at the March $22 strike at a premium of $0.40 each. The transaction appears to be tied to the sale of 270,000 shares of the underlying at $21.11 each. The strategy is likely a delta neutral play, with a delta of 0.30 indicated by the size of the stock and option combination employed. The trader could make out on the short stock leg of the trade if shares in SPLS drop post-earnings, however, the parameters of the transaction indicate substantially higher potential gains if shares fly higher in the time remaining to March expiration. A total of 11,395 calls changed hands at the March $22 strike in early-afternoon trade versus previously existing open interest of just 1,520 contracts. Like-minded optimists looked to the April $22 strike to buy roughly 2,000 calls for an average premium of $0.55 per contract. Call buyers at the April $22 strike start making money in the event that Staples’ shares surge 6.3% to surpass the average breakeven price of $22.55 by April expiration. Options implied volatility on the office supplies firm is up 4.8% at 30.82% as of 12:15pm.…
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Demand for FedEx Corp. Calls Jumps

Today’s tickers: FDX, XRT, FRX & HANS

FDX - FedEx Corp. – Shares of the delivery services firm increased as much as 3.4% in the first half of the trading session to secure an intraday high of $90.49 after it was upgraded to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’ with a target share price of $111.00 at Credit Suisse. The positive ratings change and subsequent rally in the price of the underlying shares spurred demand for near-term call options. Bullish players expecting FedEx to extend gains purchased at least 2,800 now in-the-money calls at the December $90 strike for an average premium of $2.13 a-pop. Call buyers are poised to profit should FedEx Corp.’s shares increase another 1.80% over today’s high of $90.49 to exceed the average breakeven price of $92.13 ahead of December expiration. More than 5,800 calls changed hands at the December $90 strike versus previously existing open interest of 4,243 lots at that strike. Options strategists also exchanged 1,400 calls at the higher December $95 strike by 1:15 pm in New York trading. The surge in demand for near-term call options on FDX lifted the stock’s overall reading of options implied volatility 5.9% to 29.91% this afternoon.

XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Put players flocked to the retail SPDR to initiate bearish positions on the fund right out of the gate this morning. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, fell as much as 2.04% to touch down at an intraday low of $46.48. A sizeable ratio put spread drew our attention to the front month where one investor purchased 5,300 in-the-money puts at the December $47 strike for a premium of $1.45 each, and sold 10,600 puts at the lower December $45 strike at a premium…
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Bull Eyes New Highs in United Continental Shares by Year’s End

Today’s tickers: UAL, KSS, ANN, KO, SINA, XLF, FRX & OI

UAL - United Continental Holdings, Inc. – The world’s largest carrier jumped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner earlier today after one bullish options player purchased a large call spread in the December contract. Shares in United Continental rose 0.90% this afternoon to trade at $27.42 as of 3:00 pm. The investor purchased approximately 11,200 calls at the December $29 strike for a premium of $0.72 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher December $31 strike at a premium of $0.32 each. Paying a net $0.40 per contract for the spread, the investor is prepared to profit should shares in UAL surge 7.2% over the current price of $27.42 to surpass the effective breakeven point to the upside at $29.40 by expiration day. The trader is poised to accumulate maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract, roughly $1.792 million, if the airline operator’s shares jump 13.05% and trade above $31.00 by expiration in December.

KSS - Kohl’s Corp. – Massive prints in Kohl’s Corp. call and put options caught our eye this afternoon. Shares of the department store operator that sells nationally recognized as well as privately branded goods increased as much as 4.165% in the second half of the session to touch an intraday high of $52.76. It looks like the investor responsible for the mammoth transaction sold 50,000 puts at the December $50 strike for a premium of $0.85 each, and purchased the same number of calls up at the December $57.5 strike at a premium of $0.30 apiece. The risk reversal was tied to the sale of 2.15 million shares of the underlying stock at a price of $52.12 on a 0.43 delta. The investor receives a net credit…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any way the wind blows, doesn’t really matter

Housing-keeping note: Thanks to WordPress’s destruction of Phil’s Favorites site (and replacement with an invite to sign up for its service!), I’ve been relocating my blog to TypePad.  Benefits: it looks better, is very user friendly and offers an easy way to search archives for any topic. One unique feature is that while exploring the internet, I can simply click on a button to post an excerpt of an interesting article with a link to the full article. That ability allows me to post links to articles that are worth reading when I do not have reprinting permission, such as articles from major news sources. 

The new Favorites site is here.  I’ve also created a website for Dark Horse Hedge, here.  - Ilene 

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any Way the Wind Blows, Doesn’t Really Matter

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Is this the real life? 
Is this just fantasy? 
Caught in a landslide 
No escape from reality 
Open your eyes 
Look up to the skies and see 
I’m just a poor boy (Poor boy) 
I need no sympathy 
Because I’m easy come, easy go 
Little high, little low 
Any way the wind blows 
Doesn’t really matter to me, to me

Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody

 *****

Ilene and I started the Dark Horse Hedge on July 1, 2010 with the goal of helping self-directed investors weather any storm, no matter which way the wind was blowing.  Today completes the second month of publishing the Dark Horse Hedge and we thought it would be a good time to review.  

 

September 1976:  British rock group Queen at Les Ambassadeurs, where they were presented with silver, gold and platinum discs for sales in excess of one million of their hit single 'Bohemian Rhapsody'. The band are, from left to right, John Deacon, Freddie Mercury (Frederick Bulsara, 1946 - 1991), Roger Taylor and Brian May.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

The
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Zero Hedge

China's Gold Reserves Jump For 7th Month As Consumption, Production Slump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A new report from the China Gold Association, first examined by China Daily, said gold consumption in China reached 523.54 metric tons in 1H19, down 3.27% YoY, due mostly to offlining of production facilities, the demise of zombie company producers, and readjusting the industrial structure to a period of lower demand.

...



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Phil's Favorites

THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to underst...



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The Technical Traders

THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to underst...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Is Knocking On Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In 2013, Gold broke below its 23 percent Fibonacci retracement level and a bearish trend change took place at (1).

This was the beginning of a bigger decline that saw gold fall another 450 dollars.

Nearly six years later, Gold returns to this “breakdown” level in hopes of making it a new “breakout” level at (2).

If Gold can breakout at (2) it will send a very bullish message to the market.

Stay tuned – gold bulls are knocking on heaven’s door!

If pattern opportunities in Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners is imp...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 21, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $1.22 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion.
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2 per share on revenue of $20.94 billion.
  • Target Corporation (NYS...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

More from RTT Tv

Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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