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SpendingPulse Reports Retail Sales Drop 2 Percent; UCLA Ceridian Commerce Index Drops .3 Percent; Recovery Has Stalled

SpendingPulse Reports Retail Sales Drop 2 Percent; UCLA Ceridian Commerce Index Drops .3 Percent; Recovery Has Stalled

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Courtesy of Mish 

Inquiring minds are reading the April SpendingPulse™ Retail Sales Report provided by MasterCard Advisors.

Kamalesh Rao, Director of Economic Research for MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, reported that following three months of steady, month-to-month growth averaging about 2%, total U.S. retail sales ex-auto stopped to catch its breath in April, falling by 2% since March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Taking out gasoline, the month-to-month number performed better, rising 0.3%, also on a seasonally adjusted basis, but not as strong as the 1.5% average of the previous quarter.

“Although there were pockets of strength, for example double digit growth in luxury sales and eCommerce, retail sales overall seemed to have lost some momentum in April. However, this is not untypical of a recovery, which will happen in fits and starts, rather than by taking a direct path,” noted Rao.

Year-over-year growth for total retail sales ex-auto also dipped slightly, cooling to 6.1% compared to the 6.9% growth of March. Added Rao, “This slight drop still puts retail growth at relatively healthy levels, especially when you compare it to the losses of last year.” Excluding gasoline the same trend holds: April saw retail sales ex-gasoline grow at a 3.6% year-over-year clip, down slightly from the 4.2% growth of March.

Retail Sales Statistics

Those stats reflect all retail sales, including cash, not just MasterCard transactions.

Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Drops 0.3 Percent in April

Please consider Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Drops 0.3 Percent in April

With the release of April’s figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery.

Year-over-year growth of 6.5 percent in the PCI marks the fifth straight month of steady increase at “better than normal” levels. However, year-over-year growth of 10 to 15 percent in the PCI is required to drive down the unemployment rate.

While the economy continues to climb year-over-year, the PCI indicates that expectations in the market for a robust recovery may be too optimistic. The PCI closely tracks the Federal


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Phil's Favorites

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

 

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

Many U.S. hospitals and clinics are behind when it comes to sharing information. Teera Konakan/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Elizabeth A. Regan, University of South Carolina

If you got the COVID-19 shot, you likely received a little paper card that shows you’ve been vaccinated. Make sure you keep that card in a safe place. There is no coordinated way to share information about who has been vaccinated and who has not.

...

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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

 

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

Many U.S. hospitals and clinics are behind when it comes to sharing information. Teera Konakan/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Elizabeth A. Regan, University of South Carolina

If you got the COVID-19 shot, you likely received a little paper card that shows you’ve been vaccinated. Make sure you keep that card in a safe place. There is no coordinated way to share information about who has been vaccinated and who has not.

...

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Zero Hedge

Barstool's Dave Portnoy Puts His "Face Behind" New Social Media Sentiment ETF

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Barstool Sports' Dave Portnoy made an "emergency press conference" at the beginning of the US cash session Tuesday about a new ETF he is "part of." He said he's putting his "face behind," his "reputation behind," and everything he represents behind this new social media sentiment ETF.

Portnoy is referring to VanEck's new "Social Media Sentiment" ETF (something we previewed to readers weeks ago), which will trade stocks that are being talked up the most on social media. 

...



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ValueWalk

As Spring Thaw Arrives in DC, COVID Aid Remains Frozen in Congress

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As the snow clouds that have shrouded much of the United States for the past month make way for warm bouts of sunshine, it’s important to take stock of what’s still frozen solid over on Capitol Hill:

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

  • COVID-19 Relief
  • A fair minimum wage
  • The confirmation proceedings of several of Biden’s Cabinet nominees – notably his nominees of color
  • The confirmation votes of Deb Haaland and Xavier Becerra to serve in the Cabinet
Nominees of Color Face Unprecedented Delay ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Semiconductor Stocks Looking To Trigger Bullish Breakout Signal

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

After years of underperformance, the Semiconductors Sector (SMH) turned the tables in 2016, becoming a market leader.

And today, the Semiconductors are looking to further cement that leadership role.

Today’s long-term “monthly” chart highlights the ratio of Semiconductors Sector (SMH) to Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), showing how the Semis have taken the lead in the past 5 years… as well as an important breakout test going on today!

Line (1) was support twice in the 2000s. When that failed, it le...



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Mapping The Market

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

 

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

Courtesy of Niall McCarthy, Statista

On Wednesday, U.S. regulators announced that Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine being developed by its subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals in Belgium is effective at preventing moderate to severe cases of the disease. The jab has been deemed safe with 66 percent efficacy and the FDA is likely to approve it for use in the U.S. within days.

The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine can be stored for up to three months in a refrigerator and requires a single shot, ...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto - It Is Different This Time

 

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

?I have been astonished as you know by the growth of crypto.

I remember back in 2017 when I noticed that Stocktwits message volume on Bitcoin ($BTC.X) surpassed that of $SPY. I knew Bitcoin was here to stay and Bitcoin went on to $19,000 before heading into its bear market.

Today Bitcoin is near $50,000.

Back in November of 2020, something new started to happen on Stocktwits with respect to crypto.

After the close on Friday until the open of the futures on Sunday, all Stocktwits trending tickers turned crypto. The weekend messages on Stocktwits have increased 400 percent.

That has continued each weekend...



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Politics

What is fascism?

 

What is fascism?

A Donald Trump supporter wears a gas mask and holds a bust of him after he and hundreds of others stormed the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of John Broich, Case Western Reserve University

Since before Donald Trump took office, historians have debated whether he is a fascist.

As a teacher of World War II history...



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Chart School

The Fastest Money

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The fast money happens near the end of the long trend.

Securities which attract a popular following by both the public and professionals investors tend to repeat the same sentiment over their bull phase. The chart below is the map of said sentiment.
 


 

Video on the subject.


 

Charts in the video



 



 



Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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