SpendingPulse Reports Retail Sales Drop 2 Percent; UCLA Ceridian Commerce Index Drops .3 Percent; Recovery Has Stalled
by ilene - May 13th, 2010 1:30 pm
SpendingPulse Reports Retail Sales Drop 2 Percent; UCLA Ceridian Commerce Index Drops .3 Percent; Recovery Has Stalled
Courtesy of Mish
Inquiring minds are reading the April SpendingPulse™ Retail Sales Report provided by MasterCard Advisors.
Kamalesh Rao, Director of Economic Research for MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, reported that following three months of steady, month-to-month growth averaging about 2%, total U.S. retail sales ex-auto stopped to catch its breath in April, falling by 2% since March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Taking out gasoline, the month-to-month number performed better, rising 0.3%, also on a seasonally adjusted basis, but not as strong as the 1.5% average of the previous quarter.
“Although there were pockets of strength, for example double digit growth in luxury sales and eCommerce, retail sales overall seemed to have lost some momentum in April. However, this is not untypical of a recovery, which will happen in fits and starts, rather than by taking a direct path,” noted Rao.
Year-over-year growth for total retail sales ex-auto also dipped slightly, cooling to 6.1% compared to the 6.9% growth of March. Added Rao, “This slight drop still puts retail growth at relatively healthy levels, especially when you compare it to the losses of last year.” Excluding gasoline the same trend holds: April saw retail sales ex-gasoline grow at a 3.6% year-over-year clip, down slightly from the 4.2% growth of March.
Retail Sales Statistics
Those stats reflect all retail sales, including cash, not just MasterCard transactions.
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Drops 0.3 Percent in April
Please consider Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Drops 0.3 Percent in April
With the release of April’s figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery.
Year-over-year growth of 6.5 percent in the PCI marks the fifth straight month of steady increase at “better than normal” levels. However, year-over-year growth of 10 to 15 percent in the PCI is required to drive down the unemployment rate.
While the economy continues to climb year-over-year, the PCI indicates that expectations in the market for a robust recovery may be too optimistic. The PCI closely tracks the Federal