Faltering Thursday – Last Chance to Make Strong Bounces
by phil - October 23rd, 2014 7:56 am
We decided to give yesterday a pass.
Though the indexes failed to hold our strong bounce lines (well, 3 of 5 did), we can blame Canada for that one as a gunman shot up Parliament yesterday afternoon and the "terrorist attack" news sent our markets lower. Other than that (and these things are unavoidable when you sell 500M guns to 400M people in North America), it wasn't a bad day for the markets, so we're going to wait and see what actually sticks. Our watch levels remain:
- Dow 16,466 (weak) and 16,632 (strong).
- S&P 1,878 (weak) and 1,903 (strong).
- Nasdaq 4,280 (weak) and 4,360 (strong).
- NYSE 10,360 (weak) and 10,540 (strong).
- Russell 1,104 (weak) and 1,128 (strong).
So the Dow fell almost exactly from it's strong bounce to it's weak bounce yesterday. Aside from confirming the 5% Rule™ is firmly in charge, holding the weak bounce line is bullish – IF it holds. The S&P and Nasdaq held their strong bounce lines (thanks to AAPL) while the NYSE stayed in it's range but the Russell was a big disappointment and failed the weak bounce – a very bad sign if they can't take it back today.
We had a lot of fun playing the Russell Futures yesterday, starting with my too-early short…
JOIN US for the PhilStockWorld Las Vegas Conference! Nov 9th & 10th, 2014
by admin - October 22nd, 2014 5:40 pm
Join us for the PSW Conference where you'll learn:
- To BE THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler!!!
- How to critically analyze today's markets and economy
- What strategies to apply to the current market conditions
- When to hold your trades and when to fix them for bigger gains
- How to use futures to leverage portfolio returns
- How to incorporate fundamental analysis for long-term wins
- The investing trends that will matter next year
- Our top stock picks for 2015
Highlights include:
- Meet our members and authors at our Annual Nobu Dinner on Saturday (optional)
- Try to beat Phil in our Poker Tournament (Saturday, optional)
- Live Education Session Sunday, Nov 9th, 10am – 4pm (Brunch provided.)
- Live Market Session Monday, Nov 10th, 6am – 1pm (Breakfast provided.)
We're getting special room rates for the Nobu Tower at Caesar's Palace and for Bally's Hotel and Casino as well. (We will send you special reservation information when you register.)
Room Rates are:
- 5-Star Nobu Hotel (in Caesar's Palace) - Deluxe King room - Saturday and Sunday – just $239/night
- Bally's (across the street from Caesar's) – Saturday and Sunday – $99/night
(For those of your planning to stay longer, either before or after the conference, they're extending a special rate for us for weekdays as well. As it fluctuates with their availability, we don't have a solid price, but it expected to be around $159/night at the Nobu Tower.)
Price for BOTH days of the Seminar are: $699 (20 left at this rate):
Testy Tuesday – 10% and/or Bust!
by phil - October 14th, 2014 8:13 am
How low can we go?
So far, the Russell is the only index that's gone through a full 10% correction – falling from 1,180 in early September to 1,050 yesterday – actually 11% – so far. According to our 5% Rule™, if the 10% line is going to hold over the long term, we should hold -12.5% on any additional move down – that would be 1,050 from the 1,200 line. Let's call that our line in the sand for now.
Meanwhile, as I noted in our Live Member Chat room – we're comfortable going long on the Russell Futures (/TF) over the 1,150 line, looking for a nice run back to 1,080 but THRILLED with 1,060 – as that's already +$1,000 per contract! Failing to get back over 1,060, however, will be a sign that there's likely more downside to come.
Of course, thanks to the 5% Rule™ and our Big Chart, we knew to get bearish as soon as 1,200 failed on the Russell, way back in July. In fact, on June 30th, I titled our morning post: "Monday Misgivings – CASH!!! Is King as we Begin Q3" saying:
I'm NOT going to depress you.
If you want to be depressed about the market, check out my Twitter Account, where I posted our Morning Alert to Philstockworld Members (and you can become one of those HERE) in which I aired my concerns with the Global Macros.
Last week we discussed the various forms of market manipulation that are keeping us at record highs and, on Friday, I asked "How Many Countries are Faking Economic Data?"