Posts Tagged ‘GMCR’

$1,500 Friday – Yesterday’s Futures Play Pays Big!

That's $2,200 in two days playing with us!

Not bad for free picks, right?  On Wednesday, we played the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) short at 4,100 and those gave us a nice, $700 per contract gain in just a few hours.  Yesterday, we reviewed that trade idea right in the morning post (which you can have delivered to you every morning, pre-market, by SUBSCRIBING HERE) and I added:

That's why, today, right now, we are once again shorting the Futures at 17,100 in /YM(Dow) and 2,005 on /ES (S&P) and 1,175 on /TF(Russell).  Yesterday we shorted the Nasdaq(/NQ) at 4,100 – a trade idea I outlined in the morning post for our subscribers – and that trade made $700 per contract by noon.  Not a bad day's work, right?  

SPY 5 MINUTEFutures trading is a useful skill as we can make adjustments to our trading almost anytime we get some new information – even when the market is closed.  

We played bullish on Draghi fever early in the morning and then, in our Live Member Chat Room, at 10:35, we nailed the turn for a re-entry at 1,180 on the Russell (/TF Futures), 17,150 on the Dow (/YM) and 2,010 on the S&P (/ES) as well as $95 on oil (/CL) and we were rewarded with moves down to 1,160 (+$2,000 per contract), 17,025 (+$625 per contract), 1,990 (+$1,000 per contract) and $94.25 (+$750 per contract).  

As I said yesterday, we can make trades like this because the market is RIGGED and we understand how it's rigged, which enables us to play along and profit from the manipulation.  We don't like it, we don't endorse it but, since it happens every day – we may as well bet on it, right?  

Of course there are other ways to make money on pullback and we teach those as well at PSW. Here's a couple of trade ideas we had for our Members
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Thrilling Thursday – Rejection at S&P 2,000

SPY 5 MINUTEOh my God, it's dip!  

The Futures are off a bit today and that's no surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the volume, or lack thereof, as we made our final approach at the 2,000 line on the S&P 500.  Jim Cramer was literally foaming at the mouth this week as he and his CNBC co-conspirators herded the sheeple into the markets to participate in the tail end of the rally, where the suckers could hold the bags for their Corporate Masters.  

Why am I angry at Cramer today?  Because yesterday he committed the same crime he commtted in 2008 that cost so many people their life's savings – he told people not to sell their stocks on a pullback.  "Don't take profits" is the message for the viewing public.  But, I would ask, if people don't take profits – when will they ever get profits?  What kind of stupid message is that?  Well, it's the message that leaves you holding the bag while his hedge fund buddies head for the exits.  It's not much different than telling one group of people not to leave a burning building while you make sure all your friends are getting out safely.

"This is not just my opinion. I can prove it to you empirically. See, as I was preparing to write my book "Get Rich Carefully," I went over the previous five years of trades made by my charitable trust. And as I reviewed those trades I noticed that far too often, my good judgment would be overcome by excessive skepticism."

If the "proof" Jim is talking about is his Action Alerts Plus, then I'd say you really should think long and hard about following his advice here (via Kirk Lindstrom – who does compete with Cramer):

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus Performance & Returns

I guess, sure, Jim legitimately should regret that he wasn't more bullish from 2008 to 2013, when the market popped 200% and his trust gained about 100% but don't you think the lesson Cramer should be taking from that experience is to CUT YOUR LOSSES, not
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Monday Markets are Meaty, Beaty, Big and Bouncy!

 

"Thruppence and sixpence every day
Just to drive to my baby

I don't care how much I pay (Too much, Magic Bus)
I wanna drive my bus to my baby each day (Too much, Magic Bus)

I don't want to cause no fuss (Too much, Magic Bus)
But can I buy your Magic Bus? (Too much, Magic Bus) " – The Who

This is certainly one Magic Bus of a market, flipping on a dime or, more accurately, bouncing off the Dow's 200 day moving average at 16,350 back towards our predicted strong bounce line at 16,650.  The Transports are also bouncing right off the 100 dma at 142, down from 152 and. per our 5% Rule™, we expect 146 to be tested this morning.  This is not "surprising", this is what we said would happen on Friday morning.  

As we discussed all of last week, BALANCE is the key in a choppy market and our Long-Term Portfolio finished Friday at $590K, up exactly 18% for the year, while our Short-Term Portfolio jumped to $136,000, up 36% for the year and together they are $726,000, up over 20% for the year on our two primary virtual portfolios.  

8-9-2014 12-05-11 AM DIAHaving well-balanced portfolios allowed us to ride out the dip and, in fact, buy more longs while the market was pulling back, rather than panicking out of positions that, for the most part, only went down with the market – rather than because there was any actual weakness in the stock.  

Our general strategy of Being the House – Not the Gambler is also a great help in consistently making progress in our portfolios, even when the market has such a choppy week.  

For most traders, it's "thruppence and sixpence every day" just to hold on to their positions as they gyrate up and down.  As sellers of premium, we own the Magic Bus and we collect those daily pennies instead of selling them and that acts as a tremendous buffer to our long-term investing, where simply hanging on to a position allows us to collect another day's rent!  

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$29 Trillion Tuesday – Central Banksters Gone Wild!

Fake it 'till you make it.  

While it was Aristotle who said that "acting virtuous will make one virtuous" (and clearly Aristotle hasn't been to the same charity events/wealth orgies that I have, or he never would have said it), it is our modern Central Banking system that decrees that "acting like the economy is better will make the economy better."  

Now, perhaps if they had spent $29,000,000,000,000 by giving 7Bn people $4,142.85 each – we WOULD have a better economy now – but that's not what happened at all, is it?  Instead, 70,000 people and corporations (the top 0.0001%) got an average of $414M each while the other 99.9999% of us, especially the bottom 90% actually are now worse off than when the Central Banksters decided to meddle in our affairs in the first place.  

The rich are indeed getting stunningly richer with the Forbes 400 (richest Americans) AVERAGING $800M gains in 2013 as the stock market (where most of their money is) rose over 30%.  Again – AVERAGE gains of $800M per Billionaire!  Once you get past #50 on the list (Google's Eric Schmidt with $8.3Bn), that's AT LEAST 10% of their total net worth added in a single year!

 As I said in our recent trade review "Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another", if they are just going to keep giving away money like this – we're going to just have to keep taking it (through our many bullish trade ideas) but, at some point, the music will stop and you'd BETTER be able to find a chair fast!  

There's a very good reason the Corporate Media is constantly telling you how bad "class warfare" would be - BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING THE WAR AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN FIGHTING!!!

Like any good game of musical chairs, we have no idea when the music is going to stop, so we all have to keep dancing around like nothing is wrong until it does.  As I pointed out yesterday, it's very easy to pay $150Bn for Amazon (at $327 per share) with money you just printed because…
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How to Turn $25,000 into $500,000 in 15 Years

Would you like a 20x return on your investments?

In our Weekly Webcast on Tuesday (replay available here), we discussed various ways you can make a nice retirement nest-egg for yourself as well as various stock and option strategies (and 9 new trade ideas to go with them) that can put you on the road to becomming a millionaire.  

Unfortunately, none of these are "instant" – these are not lottery tickets but long-term, time-tested strategies that can give you everything you ever dreamed of – IF you are willing to work for it.  

These same strategies can also be applied to generate an income off your retirement savings without digging back into your principal each year.    

We don't sell magic beans at Philstockworld, we teach our Members HOW to invest and put them on the road to wealth but it requires hard work and dedication on your part.  If you are willing to make the  effort, though, we are happy to show you how to make the climb.  

In the Webinar, we discussed turning $100,000 into $1M, $2M and $5M over various periods of time but we neglected to talk about strategies for people starting our with smaller amounts, say $25,000 to start.  We do run a virtual $25,000 Portfolio for our Members – to identify simple trades that require no margin and no day-trading (you really can't day-trade with $25,000 and, most likely, you have a job to do during the day anyway!) yet are still able to generate nice returns.  

Before we start, I want to get you comfortable with the math involved.  Money Chimp has a very nice Compound Interest Calculator which I'm using for my calculations and on the left is the model for the base premise of this article.   Follow the link and play with it so you can see how different strategies affect your Future Value

For instance, notice I'm going to tell you to add $2,000 a year to your account. That gets you to $558,000 after 15 years.  What if you don't add $2,000 a year to your account?   Then you…
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Green Mountain Coffee Call Spread Looks For Shares To Rebound

GMCR – Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – Weekly call and put options on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters attracted a mix of bullish and bearish trades today, with shares in the provider of the Keurig single-cup brewing machines down more than 2.0% during the first half of the session at $73.25.

Shares in GMCR have dropped approximately 17% during the past month, but a debit call spread purchased on the stock during the first 30 minutes of the trading week indicates one strategist is positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound during the next four trading sessions. It looks like the trader purchased a 460-lot Oct 04 ’13 $74/$77.5 call spread for a net premium of $1.07 per contract. The spread makes money if shares in GMCR rally 2.5% over the current price of $73.25 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $75.07, and makes maximum potential profits of $2.43 per contract given a roughly 6.0% rally in the price of the underlying to $77.50 by expiration this weekend. 

BMY – Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. – Shares in the drug maker are bucking the trend today, up as much as 0.75% during morning trading to $46.54, amid a down day for U.S. stocks.

Trading in BMY call options today indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to rally significantly in the next couple of months. The most active contracts by volume on Bristol-Myers are the Nov $50 strike calls, with around 5,000 lots in play against open interest of just 16 contracts. Time and sales data from this morning suggests most of the volume was purchased at an average premium of $0.29 each. Buyers of the $50 calls stand ready to profit at November expiration in the event that shares rally 8.0% to exceed an average breakeven point and fresh 52-week high of $50.29. Shares in Bristol-Myers traded up to $49.57 in June, the highest level in more than a decade. 


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Best Buy Bulls Bulk Up On Weekly Calls As Stock Hits Highest Since July ’11

Today’s tickers: BBY, GMCR & EBAY

BBY - Best Buy, Inc. – Shares in Best Buy are soaring on Monday, up as much as 7.7% during morning trading to hit $29.44, the highest level since July of 2011, after the stock was resumed at ‘Outperform’ with an increased target price of $40.00 from $32.00 at Credit Suisse today. Trading traffic in weekly options on the consumer electronics retailer suggest some strategists are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains during the shortened U.S. trading week. The most actively traded weekly contracts by volume this morning are the Jul 05 ’13 $29 strike calls, with upwards of 1,300 lots in play versus open interest of 75 contracts. Bullish traders appear to have purchased most of the contracts for an average premium of $0.37 apiece and may profit at expiration should Best Buy’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $29.37. Upside calls at the Jul 19 ’13 $30 strike are also active today, with around 630 lots purchased during morning trading at an average premium of $0.54 each. The contracts make money if shares in Best Buy rise another 3.7% to top $30.54 during the next few weeks to expiration. Shares in BBY are up more than 140% since the start of 2013.

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – A sizable trade in January 2014 expiry put options on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters initiated within the first 40 minutes of the opening bell this morning suggests one trader may be bracing for a pullback in shares of the coffee producer, with the stock up more than 250% since this time last year. Shares in GMCR today are up 3.3% at $77.72 as of 12:25 p.m. in New York. It looks like one trader purchased 5,000 puts at the Jan 2014 $60 striking price for a premium of $5.35 per contract. The position starts making money in the event that shares in Green Mountain plunge 30% from the current price of $77.72 to breach the effective breakeven…
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Green Mountain Weekly Options Heat Up As Shares Climb

 

Today’s tickers: GMCR, INTC & SHFL

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – Weekly options on the specialty coffee company and provider of Keurig single-cup brewing systems are active this morning with shares in Green Mountain up nearly 10% in the first half of the session to touch $30.49, the highest the shares have traded since May. Green Mountain’s shares are moving higher for a third consecutive session, having rallied sharply last week, and some options traders appear to be positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains this week. Bullish bets are on the rise at the Sep. 14 ’12 $29 and $30 strikes, the two highest strike prices currently available in GMCR weekly options. Traders exchanged upwards of 1,100 in-the-money calls at the $29 strike, and appear to have purchased most of the volume for an average premium of $1.28 apiece. Weekly call volume is heaviest up at the $30 strike where more than 2,200 lots changed hands against open interest of 817 contracts. It looks like most of the $30 calls were purchased this morning for an average premium of $0.91 each. Traders long the $30 calls may profit at expiration in the event Green Mountain’s shares settle above the average breakeven price of $30.91. Shares in the seller of K-cups are still down nearly 75% since this time last year. Overall options volume on GMCR is greater than usual, with 60,000 contracts in play as of midday in New York versus the stock’s average daily options volume of around 18,500 contracts.

INTC - Intel Corp. – Shares in chip giant, Intel Corp., are getting hit today on concerns the company may need further cuts to guidance following Friday’s downward revision to its third-quarter revenue forecast. The stock is down 3.3% this afternoon to stand at $23.40 as of 12:30 p.m. ET, adding to a more than 4% drop in the price of the underlying on Friday. Trading traffic…
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EMC Bearish Puts In Focus; Monster, Green Mountain Upside Calls In Play

 

Today’s tickers: EMC, MWW & GMCR

EMC - EMC Corp. – Bearish positioning in EMC Corp. options is on the rise this morning as shares in the provider of enterprise storage systems, software and services move 5.5% lower to $23.85. EMC and other software providers are getting hit hard today after Informatica Corp. reported preliminary second-quarter earnings and revenue that missed estimates amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly in Europe. A disappointing jobs number is also pressuring U.S. equities on the final trading session of the week. One strategist appears to have purchased disaster insurance on EMC Corp. within the first five minutes of the opening bell this morning. The Jan. 2013 $16 strike put changed hands more than 2,000 times against open interest of just 30 contracts and it looks like nearly all of the puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.29 apiece. The put options may increase in value over the second half of the year should shares in EMC continue to pull back. The price of the underlying is still positive for the year, up 8.8% year-to-date; however, the stock has come off sharply in recent months, down 20.5% from a 52-week high of $30.00 set at the end of March. The $16 puts are profitable at expiration next year in the event EMC’s shares tumble 34% from the current level to breach the average breakeven price of $15.71. This breakeven point is well below the stock’s 52-week low of $19.84, though well above the stock’s financial crisis low of $8.25. Near-term bearish action is also evident in the Aug. $23 puts where some 3,300 puts were picked up for an average premium of $0.70 apiece in the first half of the trading session. EMC Corp. reports its second-quarter results ahead of the open on July 24th.

MWW - Monster Worldwide, Inc. – Shares in online employment search and services provider, Monster Worldwide, are down…
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Green Mountain Shares Anything But Robusta As Stock Slips To Fresh Record Lows

 

Today’s tickers: GMCR, PBI & FMCN

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – Shares in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters fell as much as 8.95% this morning to a fresh all-time low of $21.06 after grocery chain operator, Kroger Co., said it plans to sell private label coffee pods for Green Mountain’s Keurig single-cup brewing machine. GMCR’s patent on the K-cups expires in September. Green Mountain’s shares have lost 80.0% of their value since September 2011, when the stock touched an all-time high of $115.98. Options traders expecting shares in GMCR to extend losses snapped up puts on the Waterbury, Vermont-based coffee company. Short-term bearish bets are building in the June $21 strike put where some 2,500 lots were purchased for an average premium of $0.53 apiece. Strategists positioning for a more severe pullback in the price of the underlying picked up roughly 2,000 puts at the July $17 strike for an average premium of $0.66 each. Traders long the $17 strike put stand prepared to profit at expiration next month should shares in Green Mountain tumble 22.4% from today’s low of $22.06 to breach the average breakeven price of $16.34. Not all of the action in GMCR options is bearish today; some strategists appear to be buying out-of-the-money calls that could pay off if shares in GMCR stage a near-term rebound.

PBI - Pitney Bowes, Inc. – Heavier than usual options activity on Pitney Bowes pushed the provider of end-to-end mail stream solutions onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning, with the day’s volume up near 17,000 lots versus the stock’s average daily volume over the past 90 days of 6,713 contracts. Shares in PBI are currently down 1.0% to stand at $14.14 in early-afternoon trading. Almost all of the volume is in the July $13 strike put where more than 16,600 contracts changed hands against open interest of 4,205 contracts. It looks like most of the puts were sold for…
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Phil's Favorites

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Zero Hedge

The Cheapest Places To Rent An Apartment In The U.S.

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Americans who are looking for a deal on an apartment might want to check out Ohio...

You will find more infographics at Statista

A one-bedroom apartment in Columbus, Ohio, costs $489 a month. It's the only zip code on th...



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The Technical Traders

What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 - Part II

Courtesy of Technical Traders

In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019.  Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is exp...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Insider Scoop

What Wall Street Thinks Of Google Cache

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) subsidiary Google announced a new partnership with Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to launc...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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