Posts Tagged ‘GNW’

Options In Play On Genworth Financial Eye Further Upside

 

Today’s tickers: GNW, M & VCLK

GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc. – Bursts of activity in Genworth Financial call options in the early going on Wednesday appears to be the work of one or more traders betting the price of the underlying stock pushes toward multi-year highs during the next several months. Shares in the insurer kicked off the trading session in rally mode, initially rising 1.2% to a near two-year high of $11.02, before reversing course to trade down 1.85% on the day at $10.69 as of 11:15 a.m. ET. The stock was cut to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at BTIG today. Shares in Genworth Financial are up roughly 170% off the 52-week low of $4.06 set back in August of 2012. Options volume in GNW is heaviest out at the Sep $13 strike, where 5,000 calls changed hands against open interest of 472 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.42 each. Buyers of these contracts stand ready to profit at September expiration should shares in GNW rally 25% over the current price of $10.69 to top the average breakeven point at $13.42. The Sep $12 strike calls are also active today, with around 1,000 lots purchased at an average premium of $0.69 apiece just before 10:00 a.m. ET this morning. Time and sales data suggests roughly 1,000 of the Sep $12 strike calls were purchased on Tuesday morning at around the same time for a premium of $0.62 each.

M - Macy’s, Inc. – Shares in department store operator, Macy’s, Inc., are up 1.3% today at a new all-time high of $47.12. Options changing hands on the retailer today indicate some strategists are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the near term. One trader appears to be rolling a bullish position in front month calls up to a higher striking price ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report next Wednesday before the open. The options player appears to have sold roughly 1,000 calls…
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Options Combo Trade On Genworth Sees Further Upside In Shares

 

Today’s tickers: GNW, EZCH & F

GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc. – Shares in Genworth Financial increased as much as 11.2% in the early going on Monday, touching a fresh 52-week high of $10.94 on the back of an upgrade to ‘sector outperform’ at Scotia Capital. The insurer’s shares have increased more than 30% since the beginning of March as investors position for the provider of mortgage guaranties to benefit from strengthening in the U.S. housing market. One options combination strategy initiated on Genworth this morning looks for shares in the name to potentially rise another 35% by September expiration. The trader appears to have sold roughly 5,400 put options at the Sep. $9.0 strike in order to offset the cost of purchasing a 5,400-lot Sep. $12/$15 strike call spread. Net premium required to initiate the bullish play netted out to zero, thus positioning the strategist to profit in the event of a near 10% upside move off today’s high of $10.94 to exceed $12.00. Maximum potential profits of $3.00 per contract are available on the position should GNW shares surge 37% to $15.00 by September expiration.

EZCH - EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. – Put options on the maker of Ethernet network processors are active this morning after Kerrisdale Capital announced a short position in the stock, sending shares in EZchip Semiconductor down more than 8.0% in the early going to an intraday low of $21.80. The shares have since rebounded sharply to trade up 0.50% on the session at $23.90 as of 12:35 p.m. ET. The most actively traded contracts on EZchip today are the Mar. $22 strike puts, with upwards of 6,200 lots in play versus open interest of 211 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the volume was purchased at an average premium of $0.38 apiece. The intraday recovery in shares of EZchip has not been kind to buyers of the $22 strike puts, with premium on the contracts roughly halving to $0.20 each by 12:45 p.m. ET. Traders long the $22 strike put…
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Traders Show An Appetite For Hain Celestial Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: HAIN, GNW & K

HAIN - Hain Celestial Group, Inc. – Bearish options are changing hands on theprovider of natural and organic food products today, with shares in Hain Celestial Group down 1.5% on the session to stand at $52.90 as of 12:40 p.m. ET. Downside put buyers on the operator of well-known brands, including Celestial Seasonings, Terra and Arrowhead Mills, among others, may be bracing for shares in the name to extend losses following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report in February. The most active option contracts on Hain today are the Feb. $50 strike puts, with more than 5,000 lots in play versus open interests of 1,247 contracts. It looks like most of the $50 strike puts were purchased this morning for an average premium of $2.30 apiece. The trader or traders buying the puts may profit at expiration should HAIN shares drop 10% from the current price of $52.90 to breach the average breakeven price of $47.70. Shares in Hain Celestial Group last traded below $47.70 back in May of 2012. The company is scheduled to present at the 15th Annual ICR XChange in Miami Beach, Florida, on Thursday.

GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc. – Shares in Genworth Financial, Inc. reached their highest level since March 2012 this morning after the insurer announced plans to separate much of the company from its mortgage guaranty unit. The price of GNW shares jumped14% to an intraday high of $9.27 in the early going, sparking heavy trading traffic in upside call options on the name during the first half of the session. Traders positioning for Genworth’s shares to extend gains during the next two trading sessions snapped up January expiry call options. The $9.0 strike calls are seeing the most volume, with upwards of 6,400 in-the-money contracts in play versus open interest of 2,575 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.14 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit should GNW shares exceed the average breakeven price of $9.14 at expiration this week. Bullish positioning on…
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Thrill A Minute Thursday – Will the Bernanke Bounce Hold?

SPY DAILYNot much happening overnight.

Dollar at 80.30 as we wait on Bernanke at 9:30.  The Euro is still dead at $1.296, Pound up to $1.615 as BOE holds rates steady (easing was expected). 79.65 Yen to the Dollar and 1.201 EUR/CHF shows those guys are still serious about supporting the Euro at all costs – and it must be costing them a fortune to do this.

I would say anyone who is holding large Euro positions and isn't taking advantage of the fact that the Swiss are backstopping it to get out is very foolish. The Euro is closer to dissolving now than it was last year. Greece will default on $500Bn in debt, Portugal will either default or need a huge bailout, as will Spain and just because Italy and France and Ireland are quiet at the moment, doesn't mean they are fixed either.

Clearly the only reason the Euro is holding $1.29 is because the Swiss are buying it – this is certainly not a reason to be holding the currency. If the Dollar were only staying over 80 because Canada was buying them to keep the Loonie from going to $1.20 – would that mean you should stay in or get out before the game falls apart?

If the Euro is artificially strong, then the Dollar is artificially weak and if the Dollar begins to rise (and the BOJ would love to see that) then we know there will be a dip in the price of dollar-denominated equities and commodities. So we need to continue to tread carefully because much of what we currently see is based on this artificial construct of a relatively weak Dollar and a relatively strong Euro – and that's distorting reality in many ways.

Also keep in mind that these little CB money-printing schemes can go on much longer than one would think logical so it's more of a big-picture sort of observation than an actionable item other than I sure wouldn't want to tie up too much money in Euros – just in case the SNB does run out of money one day

The S&P did put in a solid show of holding around 1,360 and that's all it takes sometimes – just one of our majors to hold their 5% lines can give the others reason rally back…
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White Christmas Portfolio Wrap-Up

Merry Christamas! 

I know it's tacky to give cash but, as we closed our original, virtual $25,000 Portfolio early on October 20th and we were miles ahead of our $100,000 goal, we decided to do this bonus portfolio starting with a fresh virtual $15,000 set aside out of our $130,000 – risking 1/2 of the excess profits in an attempt to make 60% more ($10,000) in two months.  

We started that Monday, the 24th of October with our GNW spread (which I also discussed on TV that day) and that Friday we put up the official post where, I will remind you, our stated goal was to make a little bonus money for the holidays AND to share some of that money with a worthy cause.  I want to thank everyone who chose to donate to the NYC Food Bank, we got some really spectacular donations from some of you and I really appreciate it and I hope you have all gotten into the holiday spirit and helped to support those in need this season – it's much appreciated and I thank you.

Just as importantly, I very much hope you were able to learn something following this portfolio.  We never put much capital at risk, we took quick profits off the table and we worked our way out of most of our losses through rolling and adjusting – letting the trading range do most of the hard work.  Most importantly, we had BALANCE – we selected trades in both directions – enjoying the wild ride from the up and down markets.  

That strategy, in fact, worked very well!  

As of Friday and since our last update on the 16th, when we had $41,465 of realized gains, we closed the following positions:  

  • 5 SCO Dec $37 puts sold for net $1.90, expired worthless – up $1,900
  • 5 FAS Dec $40 puts sold for $2.40, expired worthless – up $1,200
  • 10 TNA Dec $41 calls at net $1.50, out at $1.50 – even
  • 10 FAS Dec $61 calls sold at net $0 (spread), expired worthless – even  
  • 10 TLT 12/23 $121 calls sold for net .74 ($740), expired worthless – up $740


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Monday Mourning – Good Night Dear Leader

A young salute: A picture of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, his first wife, Kim Jong-suk, and his son, Kim Jong Il, is displayed at the Unification Hall at the West Seoul Life Science High School in Seoul

 

Oh, hello Mr. Seoul,

I dropped by
to pick up a reason

Stick around while the clown
who is sick
does the trick of disaster 

 

Asia was in turmoil last night as news of the death of Kim Jong Il hit the wires.  South Korea’s Kospi Index fell 3.4%, both the Shanghai and Hang Seng fell more than 2% at their opens but, along with the Nikkei, they all finished strong and down about 1.25%.  My comment on the matter to Members at 11:29 last night was:  

Meanwhile, Dear Leader has died and that shot the Dollar back to 81 and knocked the futures down half a point.  Asia is down more like 2% as no one is please with Jr. taking over in South Korea.  I always find that amusing when leaders who are hated die and the markets react negatively – as if the next guy could be worse.  Markets just hate uncertainty but China is in charge of N. Korea – I doubt Kim’s son is going to suddenly declare war or whatever it is people are worried about.  He’s just 27 and probably not suicidal

If anything (but I’m going to bed), I’d take oil long off the $93 line (/CL), which is where we liked them Friday.  Gold already zoomed back to $1,600 and has been rejected there and the Dollar doesn’t look that strong above 81 so far.  

IEF WEEKLYSo far, my logic is holding up as things have already calmed down and oil topped out at $94.50 at 5:30, for a nice $1,500 per contract gain in less than 6 hours.  I find it easier to trade futures off news like that than they are to play during the US Market hours as the moves internationally, still seem to make a little sense while the moves in the US market are often pure nonsense.  

Speaking of nonsense, David Fry agrees with me on Treasury rates as we are now falling below what you can get in an FDIC-insured deposit, which I consider the non-panic limit for rates.  Unfortunately, we do get plenty of panic at a drop of the hat these days and TLT shorts were our big loser last week but we stuck with them for January, hoping things calm down
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White Christmas Portfolio – Month 2

What a first month we had!  

Oddly enough, when I was last on BNN (I'll be on again this afternoon), we were just about to start our newest virtual portfolio after closing down this year's virtual $25,000 Portfolio early as we were way past goal, over $130,000 on the 20th (up 420%).  As that portfolio went so well, we decided to play a "White Christmas Portfolio" – as I explained on TV on Oct 24th, which aimed to practice making the same kind of small, aggressive trades, with the aim of turning $15,000 on October 24th into $25,000 by Christmas (66%).

In fact, I gave out our first trade idea, GNW, which was $6.30 during my BNN interview, now $6.47 (up 3%).  We discussed the Jan $5/7.50 bull call spread for $1.10, which is now $1.40 and that's up 27% but, more importantly, your gain playing the option INSTEAD of the stock is .30, vs .17 – that's almost 100% better gain with NO MORE RISK than buying the stock while requiring less than 20% of the cash commitment (and no margin on just the bullish spread).  

Of course, our actual WCP trade idea had another component deemed too confusing for TV – we also sold the short Dec $6 puts for .85 as an offset, which lowered the cash cost of the trade to .35 and those puts are now .20, up another .65 on their own and the net of the entire trade has gone from .35 to $1.20, which is a 242% gain on net.  Of course, none of that matters – what matters is that you put a net of $350 into the trade (10 contracts) plus about $600 in margin on the short puts on October 24th and you can cash that trade out today (we elected to cover it on Friday) for $1,200 and that is clearly 242% more cash than you started with on October 24th – the margin requirement is gone, but the cash remains!  

With that kind of success on our first trade, it's not too surprising that the whole portfolio has been doing well.  We left off last Wednesday with a balance of $35,540 – far better than we expected to do, obviously, in our first month (up 137%) so we decided it was prudent to…
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Super Tuesday Committee Failure – So What?

The Super-Committee is dead

Long live the Debt!  In case you are voting in the next election – here are 12 people to get rid of.  Much as I may blame one party over another for this failure, they all deserve what's coming to them for A) Pretending they were going to accomplish something and B) For not now getting up and making very strong statements denouncing the corruption in politics that make it impossible for Congress to do the Nation's business anymore.  

In case you happen to be a Fox News viewer, I will try to keep this VERY simple because, as it turns out, we now have definitive studies that prove Fox News MAKES YOU STUPID.  Of course, it is possible that only stupid people watch Fox News but I know many people who think they are smart and watch Fox News so I have to blame Fox News here as do researchers at Farleigh Dickenson University who found "The results show us that there is something about watching Fox News that leads people to do worse on these questions than those who don’t watch any news at all."   As I can tell you from raising my own children to be good citizens:  

The biggest aid to answering correctly is The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, which leads to a 6-point decrease in identifying the protesters as Republicans, and a 12-point increase in the likelihood of giving the correct answer. "Jon Stewart has not spent a lot of time on some of these issues," said Cassino. "But the results show that when he does talk about something, his viewers pick up a lot more information than they would from other news sources."

Watching Fox News, by the way, led to an 18-point disadvantage (out of 53% of all respondents) in being able to answer questions like "Were Egyptians successful in overthrowing Hosni Mubarak" or "Has the Syrian uprising been successful" but that was a Fox viewer's area of expertise compared to having a clue of what is going on in American politics other than "Obama sucks."  Tied with Daily show viewers for best informed were NPR supporters but, sadly, only
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White Christmas Portfolio – Goaaaaalll!!!

Looks like we’ll be having a green Christmas this year!

Congratulations to all who played along with our latest virtual portfolio as we couldn’t have made 33 better trades in a month as we blasted past our goal for an 89.4% gain, from $15,000 to $28,415 in just 25 days.  There’s certainly as much luck as skill in getting this kind of result but, since we’re over a month ahead of schedule and ahead of our $25,000 goal – there’s no reason to shut this down and we’ll see how far we can push things through Christmas – on one condition.

In the last update, I put up a link to our NYC Food Bank, where we are fortunate enough to have arranged for matching donations for the next Million Dollars that comes in.  If you should happen to benefit from what you learn following our virtual portfolio – PLEASE take a moment to give something back to the millions who are less fortunate.  It doesn’t have to be the Food Bank – all of our communities have needs and you may find it pleasantly surprising at how good it makes you feel to just walk into a local shelter – hand someone a check and say "Happy Holidays."  

Reach more New Yorkers with a matching gift!

That’s all you have to do.  They may try to hug you (there’s a lot of huggy people working in shelters) but they won’t put you on a list or bug you for money or come to your house – they are just thrilled to make it through a week with enough money to take care of the people who really need it.  Please keep that in mind as this is a particularly hard holiday season for charities – as giving has plunged around the country and needs, obviously, have skyrocketed.  

Thank you.  Now we can get back to our Capitalistic endeavors!  

  • 2 NFLX Nov $67.50 puts sold for $3 expired worthless – up $600
  • 5 DECK Nov $105 calls sold for $6.60 expired worthless – up $3,300
  • 5 SCO Nov $45/48 bull call spreads at $1.10 expired worthless – down $1,100
  • 20 FAS Nov $11 puts sold for .65 (-$1,300) expired worthless


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I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas – Portfolio

Wow, what a market!

Maybe we closed out our $25,000 Portfolio too early last week, with a virtual gain of $105,000 (420%) for the year, but we still have our Income Portfolio, which was quite bullishly positioned and well ahead of goal as well as positions in our very aggressive September's Dozen List that are winding down, so we decided to set up this new virtual portfolio with the goal of turning $15,000 in to $25,000 between now and Christmas to have a little extra spending cash for the holidays.  

The strategy is the same as the $25,000 Portfolio, which is meant to be the aggressive, "risk" portion of a $250,000 or larger portfolio, utilizing excess margin to our advantage with the goal of making a series of hit and run plays, with the goal of making $1,000 a week for the next 10 weeks.  Also like the $25KP, we take our winners off the table and work out our losers as best we can because, above all else, this is an exercise in adjusting and managing short-term positions.

This virtual portfolio will be available to Voyeur Members but trade ideas during chat will have their usual 1-hour delay. Premium members will get the trades with no delay Basic Members also see WCP-related comments with no delay as well.  New trade ideas and updates will be copied into the comment section of this post or, assuming I write one, the updates of this post.  If you are not a Member yet, now is a good time to join. Check out the subscription page – Our EXAMPLE trade on C closed up 200% and our ENP example returned 137% – not bad for free samples, right?

Our first official trade for the new portfolio was one we discussed on the weekend, GNW, which I added to the main post on Monday (and discussed that afternoon, in part, in my BNN interview).  We're not going to re-hash the logic for every trade here, this is simply a review post to track the trade ideas (and, while we do our best to be as accurate as possible, we do NOT include trading fees, which vary greatly so always take that into account) so we can see how they are
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Phil's Favorites

4 key issues to watch as world leaders prepare for the Glasgow climate summit

 

4 key issues to watch as world leaders prepare for the Glasgow climate summit

A mural near the site of COP26, the 26th Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rachel Kyte, Tufts University

Glasgow sits proudly on the banks of the river Clyde, once the heart of Scotland’s industrial glory and now a launchpad for its green energy transition. It’s a fitting host for the ...



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Zero Hedge

The True Feasibility Of Moving Away From Fossil Fuels

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some other energy sources, such as biofuels or nuclear, but the story is not very different.

The problem is the same regardless of wh...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

 

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

Shutterstock/rzoze19

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream finance has reached another major milestone – and another record price. The cryptocurrency was trading at US$66,975 (£48,456) following the launch of an exchange traded fund (ETF) in the US w...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.