Posts Tagged ‘Government Sachs’

NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

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NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

bull, bull marketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Credit Suisse analysts must have been furious Monday morning.  After working all weekend on a brand new upgrade of the U.S. equity markets they needed one more day to touch up the report before issuance.  Lo and behold, Government Sachs beat them to the punch with their own upgrade of U.S. equity markets on Monday morning.  Poor guys because it’s one heck of a good report.  Credit Suisse not only upgraded their outlook on U.S. stocks (new S&P target of 1050), but issued an excellent piece on why this bull run is unlikely to be similar to past bull markets.

They list 6 reasons to be less optimistic in the long-term and why this will almost certainly be a W shaped recession (they currently believe we are on the first V so expect a double dip down in 2010). The 6 reasons will sound awfully familiar to regular readers, but CS does a nice job of condensing them:

1) There is over $7 TRILLION in excess leverage in the system:

cs1 excess leverage is $7 trillion

2) Global housing prices are still too high:

cs2 IMF house price overvaluation

3) U.S. housing inventories could hinder home prices for another 2-3 years:

cs31 US excess housing inventory

4) Global growth going forward is likely to be below trend:

1.   a lower investment share of GDP tends to lead to lower investment growth;
2.   the demographics are clearly deteriorating (the working age population is declining in Europe from next year and is contracting by nearly 1% pa in Japan)
3.   there is more red tape / regulation.

cs4 oecd estimates of potential growth

5) Margins are likely to contract further:

1.   corporate tax rates may have to rise
2.   emerging markets are causing commodity prices (the input costs for developed market companies) to be structurally higher.
3.   more red-tape / regulation.

6) There is no big cap bull market theme:

Each bull market typically needs a different driver. We believe that the new key themes of the new bull market are the Non-Japan Asian consumer and technology.  Yet, European equities don’t have strong exposure to this theme.

Source: Credit Suisse

Photo: Toro Bronce, the statue in Downtown Manhattan in honor of the Bull Financial Markets, originally posted to Flickr by James & Vilija at http://flickr.com/photos/15238715@N00/224568741, at Wikipedia.

 


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Goldman Sachs: “Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression”

Goldman Sachs: "Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression"

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

With a subtitle like “From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression – and they’re about to do it again” run, don’t walk, to your nearest kiosk and buy Matt Taibbi’s latest piece in Rolling Stone magazine. One of the best comprehensive profiles of Government Sachs done to date. Speaking of GS, they sure must be busy today, now that Bernanke is about to be impeached and take the fall for all their machinations.


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Firearm-makers may finally decide it's in their interest to help reduce gun violence after Sandy Hook ruling

 

Firearm-makers may finally decide it's in their interest to help reduce gun violence after Sandy Hook ruling

The popularity of semiautomatic rifles increases the risk that mass shootings result in multiple deaths. AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

Courtesy of Timothy D. Lytton, Georgia State University

Mass shootings have become a routine occurrence in America.

Gun-makers have long refused to take responsibility for their role in ...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Zero Hedge

As Regulators Stonewall Libra, Facebook Rolls Out New Payment System

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Authored by Joeri Cant via CoinTelegraph.com,

As the Libra stablecoin project continues to face a hostile audience of regulators, Facebook launches a new fiat payment system called Facebook Pay.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Empower people everywhere to buy and sell things online ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Insider Scoop

Stocks That Hit 52-Week Highs On Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

This morning 69 companies reached new 52-week highs.

Interesting Facts:
  • The largest company by market cap to set a new 52-week high was Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).
  • The smallest company when looking at market cap to set a new 52-week high was Fast Lane Holdings (OTC: FLHI).
  • Liberty SiriusXM Gr (NASDAQ: LSXMK) made the biggest move downwards of the group, plummetting 15.33% shortly after reaching its 52-week high.

The follow...



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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part II

Courtesy of Technical Traders

In Part I of this research post, we highlight how the ES and Gold reacted 24+ months prior to the 2007-08 market peak and subsequent collapse in 2008-09.  The point we were trying to push out to our followers was that the current US stock market indexes are acting in a very similar formation within a very mature uptrend cycle.

We ended Part I with this chart, below, comparing 2006-08 with 2018-19.  Our intent was to highlight the new price hig...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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