Posts Tagged ‘HD’

Potash Options Look For Shares To Rebound

Today’s tickers: POT, CHRW & HD

POT – Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. – Options activity on Potash Corp on Monday morning suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the name to continue to rebound in the near term. Shares in POT, down more than 25% since the start of the year, rose 2.4% this morning to $30.59 by 11:35 a.m. ET. Traders looking for shares in Potash to extend gains ahead of the holiday weekend snapped up weekly calls on the stock. Upwards of 1,700 of the Aug 30 ’13 $31.5 strike calls changed hands during the first few hours of the session versus open interest of 51 contracts, with much of the volume purchased at an average premium of $0.26 each. Traders long the $31.5 calls stand ready to profit at expiration in the event that POT’s shares rally another 4.0% over the current price of $30.59 to exceed the average breakeven price of $31.76. The higher Aug 30 ’13 $32 calls are also active today, with around 600 lots purchased for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Buyers of the $32 weekly calls may profit at expiration if shares in Potash Corp rally 5.0% to settle above the breakeven price of $32.16. Finally, trading in the Oct $32 call options also appears to be bullish on the potential for continued gains in POT shares. Roughly 1,200 of the Oct $32 calls traded this morning against open interest of 731 contracts, with much of the volume purchased for an average premium of $1.21 apiece. Options players long the Oct $32 calls make money at expiration if shares in the potash producer jump more than 8.0% during the next seven weeks to top $33.21.

CHRW – C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. – Options volume on transportation services company, C.H. Robinson, is elevated on Monday, with…
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Weekly Options Constructive On Home Depot

Today’s tickers: HD, IMAX & DOV

HD - Home Depot – Shares in the home improvement retailer are trading lower on Thursday, off the lowest levels of the session but still down 1.25% at $78.69 as of 11:50 a.m. ET, amid a down day for U.S. stocks. Trading traffic in newly issued weekly options on Home Depot suggests some traders are taking advantage of the dip today and positioning for shares in the name to resume hitting record highs next week. The stock yesterday rallied as much as 3.6% to touch an all-time high of $81.56 after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and raised its full-year earnings forecast. Traders preparing for shares in HD to potentially rebound in the near term looked to the May 31 ’13 expiry options contracts, and appear to have purchased calls and sold puts on the stock. Call buyers snapped up roughly 1,000 calls at the May 31 ’13 $77.5 strike for an average premium of $1.27 each, and around 500 lots at the $80 strike at an average premium of $0.28 apiece. These contracts make money at expiration next week as long as shares in Home Depot recover from today’s slight declines. Meanwhile, fresh interest in weekly puts appears to be largely driven by sellers of the contracts. It looks like traders sold around 900 in-the-money puts at the May 31 ’13 $80 strike in the early going for an average premium of $2.09 each. Sellers of the contracts walk away with the full amount of premium at expiration should shares in HD settle above $80.00. Several hundred contracts appear to have been sold at the May 31 ’13 $77.5 and $82.5 strikes as well.

IMAX - IMAX Corp – Put options changing hands on the entertainment technology company this morning look for shares in IMAX to potentially head lower during the next four weeks. Shares in the name are down 1.5% in early-afternoon trading to stand at $27.60 as of 12:20 p.m. in New York. The most traded contracts on IMAX…
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Big Bear Put Spread Initiated On ConocoPhillips

 

Today’s tickers: COP, HD & HCA

COP - ConocoPhillips Company – Options on ConocoPhillips are among the most active by volume on Wednesday, with shares in the name down 0.90% on the session to stand at $61.12 as of 12:05 p.m. ET, just hours ahead of the global energy company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the closing bell. The largest transaction in COP options this morning was the purchase of an Aug. $47.5/$57.5 put spread, established at a net premium outlay of $1.80 per contract. Time and sales data shows blocks of 48,700 puts trading as part of a spread today, with overall volume at each strike topping 50,000 contracts. The bearish position makes money, or provides downside protection, if shares in COP drop 9.0% from the current price of $61.12 to trade below the effective breakeven point at $55.70. Maximum potential profits of $8.20 per contract are available on the spread should ConocoPhillips’ shares slump 22% to settle at a new 52-week low of $47.50 at August expiration. Shares in COP last traded below $47.50 back in February 2010.

HD - Home Depot, Inc. – Bullish options activity on the home improvement retailer this morning looks for shares in Home Depot to improve during the next couple of months. The stock today trades up 0.10% to stand at $67.27 as of 10:45 a.m. ET, after the shares earlier this week rallied to a new 52-week high of $68.15. The heaviest trading traffic in HD options is at the Mar. $65 strike, where upwards of 3,300 in-the-money calls changed hands versus open interest of 1,104 contracts. It looks like most of the call options were purchased by one trader for an average premium of $3.05 apiece during the first 10 minutes of the trading day. The strategist may profit at expiration in March should shares in Home Depot rally X% over the current price of $67.27 to top the average breakeven point at $68.05. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on February 26th.…
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Finally Friday – Maybe Tomorrow the Markets Won’t Fall

Falling, falling, falling

That's all the markets have been doing lately.  As you can see from our Big Chart – it's been a pretty orderly sell-off according to our 5% rule with roughly a 4-5% drop during October with some consolidation, followed by a much steeper 4-5% drop after the election.

We're back to the point where we expect resistance at an 8% total drop as well as some bounce action where once again we'll be measuring for strong or weak bounces to determine whether or not we can get a turn again (our indicators kept us bearish last time).  Regarding the current action, I said to our Members yesterday in Chat:  

I think there is a lot of selling as people take capital gains while they can.  I think that it's very possible that it's going to be very difficult to get a proper rally into the end of the year because there are plenty of people waiting for a rally to take their gains, whether through timing or position.  The problem with this state of not knowing is it becomes prudent for people to hedge for the worst and, if someone had a 20% gain for the year and now it's 15% and they can take it off now and keep 12.75% (after 15% tax) vs possibly hitting another 5% drop and running down to 8.5% this year or possibly 7% (at 30%) if they wait until next year and there's no recovery (and the more the cliff looms the less likely recovery seems) then it almost doesn't make sense not to take the 12.75% and run.  So that's very possibly the selling pressure we see and it may continue to be relentless into the end of the year unless there is some sort of resolution or delay to the cliff. 

While we don't think the Fiscal Cliff will end up being a big deal – that doesn't stop others from panicking.  This week we've been scooping up positions they have been running away from but, if we're going to have another leg down – we'll be needing those disaster hedges (see Wednesday's post) to keep us out of trouble.  It doesn't take much to profit from a downturn, fortunately, when we use good hedges.  On Wednesday I suggested the TZA April $17/24 bull call spread for $1.40, selling the $14…
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Bullish Options Plays Cheer Surprise Shakeup In Citi C-suite

 

Today’s tickers: C, DPZ & HD

C - Citigroup, Inc. – Shares in Citigroup are on the rise Tuesday despite the unexpected departure of CEO, Vikram Pandit, and President and COO, John P. Havens, this morning. The stock fell ahead of the opening bell on the announcement, but reversed losses at the open, gaining as much as 2% to $37.40 in the first half of the session. Trading traffic in out-of-the-money calls expiring in January of 2013 suggests some strategists are positioning for shares to reach their highest levels since July 2011 in the next few months. Traders exchanged more than 4,500 calls at the Jan. 2013 $41 strike this morning against open interest of 2,697 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.81 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit in the event of an 11% move up in the price of the underlying to top the breakeven price of $41.81 by expiration next year. Bullish positioning at the higher Jan. 2013 $44 strike, where around 750 calls were purchased this morning at an average premium of $0.33 each, indicates traders are prepared to profit should the stock jump 18.5% to exceed $44.33 by January 2013 expiration. Overall options volume topping 200,000 contracts by 11:35 a.m. ET on Citigroup is well above the stock’s average daily options volume of 140,192 contracts. Calls are more active than puts, with roughly 1.3 call options changing hands on the stock for each single put option. Shares in the name rose on Monday following the company’s third-quarter earnings report.

DPZ - Domino’s Pizza, Inc. – The pop in shares of Domino’s Pizza following the company’s better-than-expected third-quarter earnings report this morning is delivering hefty paper profits to traders who snapped up call options on the stock yesterday. Shares in DPZ rallied more than 8% this morning to touch $41.51, the highest level since March, after the company posted earnings and sales…
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Free-Falling Thursday – Facebook Faces Fatal Friday Follow-Through

What a week to do an IPO!

Will Facebook save the markets tomorrow with a successful roll-out of the largest IPO of all time or will it be the straw that breaks the camel's back, with a disappointing open that sends the Nasdaq off a cliff along with their entire over-priced sector?  Either way – this is going to be fun.

We can argue the merits of Facebook's value (or lack thereof) all day long but, scam or not, it's very likely FB will set off a buying frenzy in the space and we finish the week off with a bang. If that doesn't happen – I will be very, very bearish but from what I'm hearing and the way they are extending the offer and raising the price – it's way oversubscribed.  Also, we have to consider that people are cashing out 1-5% of their holdings to raise cash for FB on Friday – sure it's moronic, but that's what people do so you have to put yourself in a position of someone who wants to put 5% of your portfolio in to Facebook (the way you wish you had put 5% into Google at $80 when they IPO'd) tomorrow – what would you be doing with the rest of your portfolio today?  

EZU WEEKLYMeanwhile, the rest of the World is falling apart with Europe turning sharply lower as Spain sells bonds at record high yields (5.106% for 4-year notes) this morning after announcing that their Q1 GDP was -0.4% at the same time as Moody's indicates they will be cutting the credit ratings of 21 Spanish Banks this evening AND, to top it all off – there is a run on Bankia, which Spain nationalized last week – with $1.3Bn pulled from accounts this past week!  This sent Spain's markets down 1.6% and Italy (who is next) fell 2%, sending the Euro down 1% to $1.2668 and the Pound followed it down to $1.5832 (while EUR/CHF holds steady at 1.2009 in the most blatant currency manipulation ever witnessed).

Wow – that's a lot of bad stuff!  Maybe too many bad things – as in a bit suspicious that all this bad stuff happens at once – as if maybe someone WANTS to force a panic bottom?  If so, I applaud them – we certainly needed to shake things up a little
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Bed Bath & Beyond Options Active As Shares Reach New Heights

Today’s tickers: BBBY, DWA & HD

BBBY - Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. – Shares in the operator of retail chain stores Bed Bath & Beyond and Christmas Tree Shops are up the most in the S&P 500 Index today following the release of better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday. The stock is currently higher by 9.0% to stand at a record high of $72.19 as of 12:00 p.m. in New York. Options on BBBY are more active than usual, with volume fast-approaching 30,000 contracts versus the stock’s 90-day average options volume of 5,564 contracts. Traders appear to be selling the majority of the April expiry puts in play, while the calls are seeing a mix of both buying and selling. The April $70 strike put options are leading in terms of volume, with more than 3,100 contracts changing hands against open interest of 59 positions. It looks like most of the puts were sold for an average premium of $0.91 apiece. Sellers of the contracts walk away with the full amount of premium as long as shares in BBBY top $70.00 through expiration. Sellers appear to be dominating trading traffic at the April $65 and $67.5 strike put options, as well. Finally, pre-earnings bullish positions initiated yesterday in the April expiry calls may yield hefty profits for some traders. It looks like most April $67.5 calls purchased yesterday afternoon prior to the earnings report cost $1.36 apiece. Premium on these calls sky-rocketed overnight, with the now deep in-the-money contracts displaying a last-traded price of $4.80 each.

DWA - DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc. – The maker of animated feature films appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning after a large bullish spread was initiated in the September expiry. The transaction, comprising a total of 15,000 contracts,…
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Which Way Wednesday – $3.5Tn Not Enough to Prop up Markets?

SPY WEEKLYUh-oh!

Wasn't it just 2 days ago that the EU was all set to pop the ESM to $1.25Tn and the IMF was going to add another Trillion and the Fed was talking about more QE in the $1.25Tn range, which plunged the Dollar to multi-week lows?  Shouldn't adding 6% of the entire planet's GDP in additional stimulus give us more than a one-day pop in the markets? 

As I pointed out in Monday's Morning Alert to Members – these are all just RUMORS and my conclusion in the Alert was: 

Despite the bullish turn of events (which we anticipated last week) we're more inclined to cash out our bullish trades into the excitement and press our bear bets and TOMORROW, if we're still over our levels – THEN we will scramble to add some aggressive bullish trades to our virtual portfolios.  Again, I cannot stress enough that CASH is my preferred position because this market is tough to call and you need to be very flexible and very nimble to trade it.

SPY 5 MINUTEWe proceeded as planned and, so far, we haven't had any reason to capitulate and get more bullish and that is both surprising and disappointing as this is the end of the first quarter of 2012 – if not now – when?  As David Fry notes

Monday’s rally was typical as we head toward the end of the quarter. Hedge fund performance fees are on the line and any way to boost these profits is job one. Top holdings for hedge funds include the usual suspects: AAPL, IBM, INTC, BAC, DIS, HD etc.

With little volume it’s easy for algos and hedge funds to prop stocks on little hard news. Tuesday we briefly saw more of this. Just as markets were weakening a story appeared using the Fed’s favorite oracle, the WSJ, as Fed governor Rosengren stated, “more stimulus is on the table”. Immediately HFT algos jumped and markets rose if only briefly. 

It's very exciting for us as PLCN (see Thursday's notes) went all the way up to $736 on Monday and sold off on some pretty heavy trading yesterday.  Slowly but surely, our negative premise is beginning to take shape as Piper Jaffray is finally catching up with us and noting "a sharp decline in unique visitors to Priceline's booking.com" from growth of 61 percent during the…
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Put Options Active At Home Depot

 

Today’s tickers: HD, LVS, SBUX & NRG

HD - Home Depot, Inc. – The home improvement retailer’s shares have been on fire during the most recent six month period, with the stock last week soaring to $45.50 – the highest level in nearly a decade – on the heels of a more than 55.0% rally since August. A sizable ratio put spread initiated on Home Depot this morning may be the work of an investor hedging a long position in the shares, or, alternatively, an outright bearish stance looking for shares to pull back somewhat ahead of May expiration. Home Depot was cut to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Edward Jones over the weekend and shares in the name today trade 0.95% lower on the session at $44.09 just before 12:00 p.m. in New York. It looks like the put player purchased around 2,500 puts at the May $42 strike for an average premium of $1.54 each and sold 5,000 puts at the lower May $38 strike at an average premium of $0.72 apiece. Average net premium paid to initiate the ratio spread amounts to $0.10 per contract, thus implying profits or downside protection kick in if shares in HD decline 5.0% to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $41.90. Maximum potential profits of $3.90 per contract are available on the position if the price of the underlying drops 13.8% from the current price of $44.09 to settle at $38.00 at expiration. The sale of twice as many of the lower-strike put options greatly reduces the cost of downside protection, which may insulate a longer-term HD optimist from losses in the stock’s value given the potential for a broad market correction or disappointing company-specific news to weigh on the shares ahead of May expiration. Home Depot is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on February 21.…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Nasdaq 2,603 Edition

Watch the Nasdaq.

That's the index we need to catch up to the Dow now that the S&P is halfway to goal at 1,297 (from our Must Hold line at 1,235).  The Dow is in La La Land, led by MCD (up 31%), IBM (up 26%), PFE (up 24%), HD (up 20%) and KFT (up 20%) while this year's Dogs of the Dow are BAC (down 59%), AA (down 43%), HPQ (down 39%)  and JPM (down 22%).  

While the losers may seem to outweigh the winners, that's not how it works as the Dow is price-weighted so BAC dropping from $14 to $5.50 "only" costs the Dow about 68 points (roughly 8 points for each Dollar), IBMs rise from $145 to $185 added a whopping 320 points.

So a 26% rise in one component and a 59% drop in another nets out to a gain of 252 points!  At the beginning of the year, they had roughly the same market cap ($150Bn) but IBM has gained $70Bn and BAC has lost $100Bn which, of course, translates into a net gain of 2% on the entire Dow – BECAUSE IT IS THE STUPIDEST INDEX ON EARTH!  

Our Members, of course, know this.  I wrote "DJIA: The Most Useless, Overused Tool on the Planet" back in 2006, when GM was still part of the Dow so no need to rehash it all here other than to mention the fact that a 30-component index has made 5 substitutions in the 5 years since I wrote that article only serve to highlight how ridiculous it is to use the Dow to draw long-term conclusions.  The Dow is manipulated because it's easy to and Uncle Rupert sits with the other Masters of the Universe to decide how to use this headline tool to make things look as good as possible in the US markets.  

 

That's why CSCO and TRV replaced C and GM in June of 2009.  C was at $28.80 and is down a bit, GM went BK from $45 (which would have been a 360-point loss in the Dow) while CSCO was disappointing but essentially flat and TRV is up $20, adding another 160 points so a 520-point swing (5%) on those substitutions alone.  In September
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Phil's Favorites

The R Word

 

The R Word

Courtesy of 

You better hope interest rates didn’t just peak for the cycle with the 10-year failing at 3.05%. So says Ari Wald (technician at OpCo), whose chart this weekend looks at 10-year treasury yield breakdowns as a leading (or coincident) indicator for major turning points in the S&P 500 / economy.

Here’s Ari:

Looking back at the last economic cycle, the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked coincidentally with an inversion in the yield curve in 2006. However, it was a definitive breakdown in rates that occurred while the equity market topped in 2000 and 2007—we’re still missing this breakdown, in our view. In other...



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Digital Currencies

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

 

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

The Bitcoin bubble is perhaps the most extreme speculative bubble since the late 19th century. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Lee Smales, University of Western Australia

Nearly 170 years before the invention of Bitcoin, the journalist Charles Mackay noted the way whole communities could “fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit”. Millions of people, he wrote, “become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first”.

His book ...



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Zero Hedge

This is What The "Trade" War With China Is Really All About

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Forget soybeans, auto imports, iPhones, crude oil, and cheap Chinese gadgets. Also forget tariffs, duties, and subsidies. Even forget weapons.

The real reason behind the US-China "trade" war has little to do with actual trade, and everything to do with what China's president, Xi Jinping, said when he visited a memory chip plant in the city of Wuhan earlier this year. In a white lab coat, he made an unexpectedly sentimental remark, comparing a computer chip to a human heart: “No matter how big a person is, he or she can never be strong without a sound and strong heart”.

What is really at the basis of the ongoing civilizational conflict between the US and China, a feud which many say has gradually devolved into a new cold war if few top politicians are willing to cal...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

NYSE facing critical 20-year support test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This chart looks at the NYSE index over the past 20-years. During this time frame, this broad index has spent the majority of the past quarter-century, inside of rising channel (1).

It broke above the top of the channel in 2016 and it experienced a very strong 12-month rally. Since the first of this year, it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows. Weakness this year has it nearing a test of support, which is the top of this 20-year rising channel. While nearing this key support test, it is also nearing another test of a rising support line at (2).

Support is support until...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Bears are certainly showing the type of strength we haven’t seen in a long time.   A week ago at this time futures were surging on news of a “truce” for 90 days between China and the U.S. in their trade spat.  But the charts were still not saying lovely things despite a major rally the week prior.   And by Tuesday, darkness had descended back on the indexes, with another gut punch Friday.    A lot of emphasis was put on a long term Treasury yield dropping below a shorter term Treasury.

On Monday, the yield on five year government debt slid below the yield on three year debt, a phenomenon which has p...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Monday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • The Labor Department's JOLTS report for October is schedule for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Treasury is set to auction 3-and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. ET.
  • The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index for November will be released at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics Pre-Market Outlook Markets

...

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Members' Corner

What should the House do? Part 1: Veto-proof actions... then aim for a thousand vetoes

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author, and one of the “World’s Best Futurists” — explores a myriad of topics on his lively and always interesting blog: politics, science, history, science fiction, etc. For more posts by David, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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Biotech

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Vchal/Shutterstock

By Joyce Harper, UCL

A scientist in China claims to have produced the world’s first genome-edited babies by altering their DNA to increase their resistance to HIV. Aside from the lack of verifiable evidence for this non peer-revie...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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