Posts Tagged ‘hindenburg omen’

Sometimes It’s Just a Black Duck

So if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck, there’s a good chance it’s not a black swan no matter how much you’d like it to be one. – Ilene 

Sometimes It’s Just a Black Duck

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker

Death Crosses, the Hindenburg Omen, the Black Swan of all Black Swans, the AIDS Doji, the Devil’s Ladder, the Europocalypse, the plagues of pestilence and locusts, the Tony Robbins Alert, the Hitler Harami formation, etc.

Here a Swan, there a Swan, everywhere a Black Swan.

Except 18 months since the bottom of the market and 13 months since the NBER-recognized economic trough, none of these "Prophecies have been fulfilled".  Sleeping Beauty hasn’t pricked her finger on the spindle and that cabin in Upstate New York I stocked with guns and SpaghettiO’s lies empty still.

The trouble with the Recency Effect is that everyone all of a sudden thought they were Nassim Taleb, orinthological experts on the spotting of Black Swans.  Every blip on the screen or blurb in the newspaper was fresh evidence of the next hundred years’ storm.  Forget being fooled by randomness, people have become obsessed with randomness.

But as we’ve learned, not every aberration is a Black Swan in the making.  Sometimes, it’s just an ordinary Black Duck.  A negative event or possibility that is processed and dealt with, that doesn’t necessarily lead to contagion, panic and meltdown.

This is not to say that warning signs of future crises should be dismissed out of hand.  In fact, my argument is the opposite; the more we learn not to get hysterical over every Black Duck, the better the chances are that when the real things comes along, we will be cogent enough in our reaction to them.

Iranian nukes and the Straight of Hormuz, Al-Quaeda’s next terrorism attempts, the Pension Fund Time Bomb, the Chinese Real Estate Bubble, the Treasury Bond Bubble, the disappearance of non-program trading volume in the stock market, hyper-inflation, hyper-deflation, the commercial real estate shoe-to-drop, the Municipal Bond Minefield, etc.  All ugly problems, but all Black Swans?

Or just Black Ducks that will be unpleasant to deal with but dealt with regardless? 

 


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ETF Periscope: 10,000 Reasons to Hedge Your Bets

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

10,000 Reasons to Hedge Your Bets

by Daniel Sckolnik of ETF Periscope

Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.”  ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

Though it’s not quite officially over, for all practical purposes it’s time to say goodbye to the dog days of summer.

The markets spent the last few months surfing its own volatility wave, yet ending up pretty much where it started. The numbers speak for themselves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) started June 1 at 10,133. It ended Friday at 10,150. At the same time, the benchmark S&P 500 Index opened the start of June at 1087, closed Friday at 1064.  Oil? Using the ETF USO as a proxy, its June 1 opening was 33.65. Now? 33.57. What about gold? Using the ETF GLD for a proxy, we see it opened June 1 at 120. It closed Friday at 121, indicating a total $10 swing in the precious metal over the same time period.

So, the markets have effectively been in Sideways City all summer long. But now, with the return of all the big-money players from vacation frolics and the accompanying increase in trading volume, it’s time to get serious.

September is close enough on the horizon to taste, and both the Bulls and the Bears are positioning themselves in preparation for their respective expectations. It’s time for what might just turn out to be the main event of the year: The Battle for Dow 10,000.

DJIA 10,000, a psychologically important level, has proven itself to be fairly effective in terms of support throughout 2010. It first was tested this year all the way back in February, then was temporarily violated during the May 6th “flashcrash” before recovering. It was breached more deeply during the summer months, but once again finds itself serving, at least for the moment, as support rather than resistance.

So who has the stronger field position, in regard to market direction in general? The Bulls or the Bears?

If you go by the past week, it would be something of a wash, pretty much reflective of the summer. The early…
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Hindenburg Omen Redux, How Dire Is It Anyway?

Hindenburg Omen Redux, How Dire Is It Anyway?

Courtesy of asiablues at Zero Hedge 

By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

The Hindenburg Omen was triggered again last week, as reported by the WSJ MarketBeat. This is the second time this month since its first occurrence on Aug. 12. For those not familiar with the term, the Hindenburg Omen is essentially a combination of four bearish technical indicators on the NYSE occurring on the same day, which would signal increased probability of a stock market crash. 

Wall Street is quite abuzz since the Omen seems to have a pretty good track record as Wikipedia documented the probability of greater than 5% downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% within the next forty days.  But before everyone goes running for the exit, the probability of a major stock market crash was only 24%, and it would also help to take a closer look at the significance of the Hindenburg Omen itself.

Although Jim Miekka, a blind former physics teacher living in Florida, is said to be the creator, the Hindenburg Omen is largely based on Norman G. Fosback’s High Low Logic Index (HLLI). In an article dated Aug. 24, Mr. Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch recounted a discussion with Mr. Fosback that HILI mainly focuses on the lower of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows amounted to at least 5%--vs. the 2.5% applied in the Hindenburg Omen--of the sum traded on the NYSE. Fosback believes "this lower cutoff is way too low to be considered bearish."

Another issue, as pointed out by Hulbert, is that the highs and lows numbers are somewhat distorted because many stocks traded on the NYSE are non-operating companies. Hulbert cited findings from Ned Davis Research that excluding non-common stocks on the NYSE, the Hindenburg Omen would not have been tripped, as the new 52-week highs ratio would have been just 0.4% on Aug. 12. 

There’s also lack of clear definition as to how many stocks have to reach their highs and/or lows to qualify as the Omen.  Other critics believe the Hindenburg Omen may simply be a case of data-mining and overfitting of seemingly random criteria.

My take is that the convergence of several bearish technical signals is a manifestation of the current heightened market risks and volatility stemmed primarily from the economic uncertainty after the global financial crisis, instead of a "leading indicator" for some significant market…
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The Hindenburg Omen

Here are a couple Hindenburg Omen articles. Zero Hedge points out the third confirmation has occurred, and Elliott Wave Int. discusses the meaning of the Hindenburg signs. See also The Hindenburg Omen was triggered today! - Ilene 

Third Hindenburg Omen Confirmation

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The market is now down 3.4% from the August 12 open, when the first Hindenburg Omen was sighted, on route to validating the prediction of a 5% drop. However, in the process it continues getting worse and worse – today we just got a third H.O. confirmation, and a 4th standalone HO event, as the market seems to be getting ever more schizophrenic, with increasing new highs and new lows, while the undercurrent is one of ever increasing implied correlation as noted earlier, as ever more asset managers simply rely on levered beta "strategies" to redeem their year. Unlike 2009, however, this time the trick won’t fly, as it appears the market’s downside potential is finally starting to be appreciated.

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Elliott Wave International Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg Sheds Light on a Feared Technical Indicator

The Hindenburg Omen — Omen-ous or Not? 

By Elliott Wave International

1937:  The German-built airship 'Hindenburg' (LZ-129) flying over New York City, showing the swastika symbol on its tail. Filled with the flammable gas hydrogen, the Zeppelin caught fire in May of the same year, killing 36 people.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

On Aug. 12, volatile market action coincided with a technical signal called the Hindenburg Omen, whereby a relatively high number of new highs and lows in individual stocks occur at the same time.

This indicator instantly gained an enormous amount of media attention. So we sat down with Steve Hochberg, EWI’s chief market analyst and close colleague of Robert Prechter, to ask him about the now-infamous Hindenburg Omen.

EWI: Steve, recently a market indicator called the Hindenburg Omen has been in the news, what is going on?

Steve Hochberg: Discussion of this indicator certainly has been everywhere. Someone emailed us and said they even saw it mentioned on the front page of the Drudge Report! Look, headline-grabbing names grab headlines. Essentially it measures the fractured nature of market action. Over the years, we’ve discussed numerous times in our publications how a fractured market is often times an unhealthy market. The multiple non-confirmations registered at the recent August 9 stock high, which we talked about in the Short Term Update, are another manifestation of this bearish behavior. The message is consistent with how we view the Elliott wave structure.

EWI: Why are people interested in this particular indicator?

SH: That’s a…
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Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week

Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week

1937:  The German-built airship 'Hindenburg' (LZ-129) flying over New York City, showing the swastika symbol on its tail. Filled with the flammable gas hydrogen, the Zeppelin caught fire in May of the same year, killing 36 people.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Longs may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not only did we just have a second, and far more solid Hindenburg Omen confirmation today, with 82 new highs, and 94 new lows, but the Saturday is the day when Iran launches its nuclear reactor, and everyone will be very jumpy regarding any piece of news out of the middle east. As for the H.O., the more validations we receive, the greater the confusion in the market, and the greater the possibility for a melt down (or up, as the case may be now that the market is unlike what it has ever been in the past). Furthermore, with implied correlation at record levels (JCJ at around 78), any potential crash will be like never before, as virtually all stocks now go up or down as one, more so than ever before. And should the HFT STOP command take place, the future should be very interesting indeed (at least for the primary dealers, and the Atari consoles which are unable to VWAP dump their holdings in the nano second before stuff goes bidless).


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Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Longs may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not only did we just have a second, and far more solid Hindenburg Omen confirmation today, with 82 new highs, and 94 new lows, but the Saturday is the day when Iran launches its nuclear reactor, and everyone will be very jumpy regarding any piece of news out of the middle east. As for the H.O., the more validations we receive, the greater the confusion in the market, and the greater the possibility for a melt down (or up, as the case may be now that the market is unlike what it has ever been in the past). Furthermore, with implied correlation at record levels (JCJ at around 78), any potential crash will be like never before, as virtually all stocks now go up or down as one, more so than ever before. And should the HFT STOP command take place, the future should be very interesting indeed (at least for the primary dealers, and the Atari consoles which are unable to VWAP dump their holdings in the nano second before stuff goes bidless).


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Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The German-built dirigible 'Hindenburg' (Zeppelin LZ 129) catches fire in the stern while trying to land at the Lakehurst Naval Air Station, New Jersey. People watch from below, standing on the mooring mast and on the ground. The ship was engulfed in flames and crashed in less than a minute. Thirty-six people were killed in the disaster.   (Photo by Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 – a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).


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Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 – a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).


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Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Last Week Was Just the Beginning

Courtesy of John Nyaradi, Wall St. Sector Selector 

Weekly Stock Market and ETF commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

Last week was difficult, at best, for global stock markets as the S&P 500 dropped more than -3% and the bond market surged as investors continued their “flight to quality.” Fear spread around the world with global markets shedding recent gains.  It was definitely a “risk off” week and the beginning of what I believe will continue to be a “risk off” period as we move through the closing days of summer.

The macro news was mostly poor, as we’ll discuss in a moment, and the technical picture deteriorated. In our portfolios, we moved to “Red Flag Flying” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and moved from our remaining cash positions to inverse ETFs in the Standard Portfolio, while keeping our option portfolio positioned for more downside ahead. 

Our new “High Conviction Trade Alert triggered its first ‘buy’ signal and I’m looking forward to reporting more details on this to our Pro members in the weekly Position Update. The High Conviction Trade Alert is designed to identify high conviction/low risk opportunities.  It won’t trade very often but should offer excellent risk/reward opportunities. 

Looking at My Screens 

On a technical basis, significant damage was inflicted last week to equity markets around the world.  As we’ve been saying, an imminent decline in U.S. markets seems to be upon us, and it appears that last week’s action could have been the beginning of that move.

 

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart above you can see that the S&P 500 has dropped below its 200 day moving average and also below its 50 Day Moving Average, indicating that the long and medium term trend is down.  These significant moving averages now become resistance rather than support and we see the next support levels at 1060 and then near 1020 at the June lows. 

The 50 Day Moving Average remains below the 200 Day Moving Average, forming the widely watched “death cross,” which typically accompanies significant trend changes.  Additionally, the 12 month moving average of the S&P 500 was also violated which is another bearish indicator for major markets. 

As if all of this isn’t gloomy enough, last week’s stock market action triggered a “Hindenburg Omen,” named after the German zeppelin that crashed and burned in New York…
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Implied Correlation Closes At All Time Record High

Implied Correlation Closes At All Time Record High

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Or another possible title: Stock Dispersion Hits All Time Record Low…

It was only Wednesday when we were lamenting the collapse of alpha after implied correlation hit an all time intraday high of just under 80. Well, today should be the day when all long/short funds are shutting down: implied corr just closed at an all time record high of 79.57, after also posting an absolute intraday record of 80.08. It is getting ever more obvious that stocks continue to trade more and more as just one asset class, as seen by the constant increase in JCJ below, which has risen almost 15% in this week alone. At this rate, every stock will trade just like every other stock in under 3 weeks when alpha is officially put to rest and stock dispersion has undergone an extinction level event (better known as HFT and ETF encroachment, in which it is the price that determines value and not the other way around).

And here is some food for thought: if stocks trade increasingly as one, and if the Hindenburg Omen (as we pointed out first yesterday before the term the internet on fire) is confirmed in the next 5 weeks, just what will happen when everything sells off as one?

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See also: The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived & The Hindenburg Omen was triggered today!

And for an alternative point of view, Omens and Dojis and Tells, Oh My!


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Zero Hedge

Greenwich Single-Family Listings Fall Most On Record As Buying Frenzy Continues 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

New York City millionaires quickly realize their hometown has transformed into a socio-economic disaster that could rival the 1970s in terms of crime, unemployment, and taxes. Many have made a beeline for neighboring Greenwich. 

After years of stagnant demand growth for its multi-million dollar mansions due to the secular decline of "active" asset management, the hedge fund capital of the world is having a real estate renaissance in the town located in southwestern Fairfield County, Connecticut. And it only took a virus pandemic.&...



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Phil's Favorites

Have Bear Markets Changed Forever?

 

Have Bear Markets Changed Forever?

Courtesy of 

We’ve never seen a bear market like the one we just lived through. Nothing comes close in terms of how quickly it started and how quickly it ended.

In just 19 days, the Dow was 20% below its highs. In 22 days, it was 30% below. And in just 27 days, it was all over. The bottom was in. To call this unusual is an understatement. You can see in the chart below that most bear markets take literally hundreds of days to bottom.

This entire bear marke...



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Digital Currencies

A Unifying Theory of Everything

 

A Unifying Theory of Everything

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

This week, New York Magazine let me go full stream of consciousness on … everything. Their editor pitched me the idea to articulate a unifying theory on “this whole crazy techno-fiscal moment.” Problem is, while I understand crypto better than 99 percent of people, I do not understand crypto.

On Wednesday, crypto pioneer Coinbase listed shares on the NASDAQ, and closed the day at an almost $100 billion valuation, making it nearly as valuable as Goldman Sachs. Coinbase’s big day made a bunch of wealthy people wealthier, but it also poked several bears — ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

 

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

A complete human genome, seen here in pairs of chromosomes, offers a wealth of information, but it is hard connect genetics to traits or disease. HYanWong/Wikimedia Comons

Courtesy of Xavier Bofill De Ros, National Institutes of Health

The first draft of the human genome was publ...



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Chart School

Money Printing Asset Price Targets

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The FED giveth and the FED taketh away. Right now the FED is giving a lot into 2022 US Mid Terms. 

Unless the FED breaks the market, here are some BRRRRR asset price targets, not normal price targets but money printing adjusted price targets. 


BITCOIN 175,000 to 500,000 USD

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DOW to 40,000 to 50,000

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More DOW

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Politics

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

 

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

Venezuelans wait at the Colombian border to be processed and housed in tents in 2020. All Venezuelans now in Colombia will receive a 10-year residency permit. Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Erika Frydenlund, Old Dominion University; Jose J. Padilla, Old Dominion University...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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