Posts Tagged ‘housing index’

July 27, 2010 – Daily Growth Index Surpasses 3% Contraction Rate

July 27, 2010 – Daily Growth Index Surpasses 3% Contraction Rate

Courtesy of Rick at Consumer Metrics Institute

Since last week our Daily Growth Index has weakened further, surpassing a year-over-year contraction rate of 3%. This daily measurement of on-line consumer demand for discretionary durable goods has now dropped to the lowest level it has recorded since late November 2008:

Chart
(Click on chart for fuller resolution)

Our Daily Growth Index reflects the strength of consumer demand over the trailing 91-day ‘quarter’, weighted according to the contribution that goods involved in on-line transactions make to the GDP (per the BEA’s NIPA tables). It is designed to serve as a proxy for a ‘real-time’ GDP, and it slipped into net contraction on January 15th, 2010. To put this decline in perspective we offer the following observations:

1. The current contraction in consumer demand for discretionary durable goods has now extended for more than 6 months.

2. The day to day level of the year-over-year contraction is now worse than a similar reading of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008 was after 6 months.

Chart
(Click on chart for fuller resolution)

  • The amount of damage done to an economy by an economic slowdown can by quantified by multiplying the event’s average rate of contraction times the duration of the event. By that measure the 2010 contraction has now inflicted 43% as much pain on the economy during its first 6 months as the ‘Great Recession’ did during the first 6 months of that slowdown.
  • Although this contraction has not yet reached the extreme contraction rates that were seen during 2008, after 6 months it has not yet formed a bottom. Furthermore, it is now likely to last longer than the 2008 event.
  • In an even broader perspective, the current level of the Daily Growth Index over the trailing 91-day ‘quarter’ would put it among the lowest 6% of all calendar quarters of GDP growth since 1947. Only roughly 1 in 17 quarters of GDP activity have been worse.
  • The duration of the current contraction event is becoming a real problem. Our trailing 183-day ‘two consecutive quarters’ growth index has dropped into the 5th percentile among similar two consecutive quarters of GDP ‘growth’ since 1947. This means that the trailing 6 months have been statistically worse than the trailing 3


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Phil's Favorites

Facebook begins to shift from being a free and open platform into a responsible public utility

 

Facebook begins to shift from being a free and open platform into a responsible public utility

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg prepares to testify on Capitol Hill. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

Courtesy of Anjana Susarla, Michigan State University

When Facebook recently removed several accounts for trying to influence the 2018 midterm elections, it was the company’s latest move acknowledging the ...



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Zero Hedge

Death Of A Nation: Drug Overdose Deaths Jump To Record 72,000 Last Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimates drug overdose deaths based on a current flow of mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System has just reached a record of 71,568 Americans in 2017. That is a 6.6 percent jump in overdose deaths over 2016 and represents a rapid deterioration of America’s inner core: The middle class.

More than 40,000 Americans...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride reflects the biggest issue facing cryptocurrencies: regulation

 

Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride reflects the biggest issue facing cryptocurrencies: regulation

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Brian Lucey, Trinity College Dublin and Shaen Corbet, Dublin City University

The rollercoaster of cryptocurrency pricing is on the downward slope again. Bitcoin has fallen by a quarter in the past month, with other...



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ValueWalk

The Top 10 Wildest Campaigns Of 2018: Starboard's Stake In Symantec

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

This week’s column is a continuation of our 10 “wildest campaigns” of 2018. Find the first part here.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Free-Photos / PixabayTop 10 Wildest Campaigns Of 2018

5. How often does an activist win a proxy contest without support from either of the two main proxy advisory firms? (...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Small Caps attempting 20-year breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Russell 2000 trend remains solidly higher, as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs inside of rising channel (1) over the past 25-years.

Small caps have been an upside leader in 2018, as they are very near all-time highs.

We applied Fibonacci extension levels to the 2007 highs and 2009 lows at each (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- Small caps are attempting a dual breakout at (3). 

This is a price point that small-cap bulls would LOVE to see strength and a breakout take place, as monthly momentum is lofty.

...

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Insider Scoop

Walmart Posts Standout Quarter, But Raymond James Downgrades On Flipkart Costs

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WMT 10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday Headlights On Deere: Mixed Results As Company Cites H...

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Biotech

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Nanomedicine could scupper the need for TB patients to take multiple daily tablets with toxic side effects. Daniel Irungu/EPA

Courtesy of Sarah D'Souza, University of the Western Cape and Admire Dube, University of the Western Cape

Tuberculosis is one of the world’s ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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