Posts Tagged ‘IMAX’

Weekly Options Constructive On Home Depot

Today’s tickers: HD, IMAX & DOV

HD - Home Depot – Shares in the home improvement retailer are trading lower on Thursday, off the lowest levels of the session but still down 1.25% at $78.69 as of 11:50 a.m. ET, amid a down day for U.S. stocks. Trading traffic in newly issued weekly options on Home Depot suggests some traders are taking advantage of the dip today and positioning for shares in the name to resume hitting record highs next week. The stock yesterday rallied as much as 3.6% to touch an all-time high of $81.56 after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and raised its full-year earnings forecast. Traders preparing for shares in HD to potentially rebound in the near term looked to the May 31 ’13 expiry options contracts, and appear to have purchased calls and sold puts on the stock. Call buyers snapped up roughly 1,000 calls at the May 31 ’13 $77.5 strike for an average premium of $1.27 each, and around 500 lots at the $80 strike at an average premium of $0.28 apiece. These contracts make money at expiration next week as long as shares in Home Depot recover from today’s slight declines. Meanwhile, fresh interest in weekly puts appears to be largely driven by sellers of the contracts. It looks like traders sold around 900 in-the-money puts at the May 31 ’13 $80 strike in the early going for an average premium of $2.09 each. Sellers of the contracts walk away with the full amount of premium at expiration should shares in HD settle above $80.00. Several hundred contracts appear to have been sold at the May 31 ’13 $77.5 and $82.5 strikes as well.

IMAX - IMAX Corp – Put options changing hands on the entertainment technology company this morning look for shares in IMAX to potentially head lower during the next four weeks. Shares in the name are down 1.5% in early-afternoon trading to stand at $27.60 as of 12:20 p.m. in New York. The most traded contracts on IMAX…
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Monday Market Movement – Monti’s Move Makes Mess in Europe

INDU WEEKLYItalian banks are falling hard this morning.

Following news that Mario Monti will be resigning, Italy's 5 largest banks are falling 6-7% and that's dragging the whole Italian market down 3.7% this morning and that's putting a drag on Europe and the US futures so it's a rough start to the week already – and we haven't even gotten out of the gate yet.  As you can see on Dave Fry's DIA chart, we have a clear line at 13,146 to watch and that 50 dma has to hold to keep us bullish.  

There's not a lot of data to guide us this week but we do have a Fed meeting on Wednesday where it's expected that the FOMC will increase monthly QE purchases from $40Bn to $85Bn per month to make up for the expiration of Operation Twist as it winds down at the end of the month.  Bernanke will give a press conference at 2:15 on Wednesday and Thursday we'll see how he does as we sell both 7 and 30-year notes in the afternoon.

We'll also get the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45 on Thursday and that will either confirm or deny Friday's awful Consumer Sentiment numbers and Friday we get CPI and Industrial Production but, on the whole, not a very big data week and our expectations are that we do drift higher ahead of the Fed – although the drag from Europe might make that tough today.  

Of course, the Fiscal Cliff conversation will still dominate the markets.  John Boehner met with the President in DC this weekend but neither one is talking about what actually happened – although Saturday Night Live seems to have captured the public's disgust with the whole process quite nicely this weekend

Making fun of this manufactured crisis is a good sign – it means the public is ready to move on and hopefully the markets will stop running up and down 1% every time someone drops a cliff rumor.  We need a little bit of stability if we're going to bring investors back off the sidelines before the end of the year – time is certainly running short for a "Santa Clause Rally." 

AAPL WEEKLY AAPL took another hit from analysts this morning with Jefferies cutting their price target to $800 from $900 on concerns of slowing IPhone growth and declining margins.…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – NOW It’s May

SPY 5 MINUTEYesterday did not count.

Until the end of day, the volume was low and, as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the morning pump was mostly erased by the end of the day.  In fact, on the Russell and Nasdaq – it was entirely erased.  What a friggin' joke, yet no one will investigate it and few will even question it.  

As we often say at PSW – We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we know HOW the game is rigged and get to place our bets accordingly.  In my Morning Alert to Members at 10:05, my comment on the move up was: 

Not too many markets are open so super low-volume means we can pretty much ignore whatever's happening.  Some wild gyrations at the open already with AAPL popping $10 to goose the Nas and they are spiking us up and down at will on this low volume.   

At 12:02 we made our planned adjustments to our 4 active virtual portfolios, taking advantage of the big, bad spike to move to cheap June bear positions and cash out our long plays and just get generally more aggressively bearish at what we thought was going to be the top for the day.  The most aggressive move was made in our most aggressive, $25,000 Portfolio (pictured here from its 10am status BEFORE many changes were made), where we flipped our protective TNA hedge  from bullish to very bearish – shifting the balance of the portfolio much more bearish with a single move:  

TNA – $60s are now $4 so let's take that and run on 5 (1/2), as that's more than we paid for the spread and we'll ride the $63s half-covered with a stop on 5 at $3 (now $2.25).  Also, a stop on the 5 remaining $60s at $3, at which point we would reset the stop on the $63s, of course. 

Needless to say, that trade worked out huge already as the $60s all stopped out at a $3.50 average ($3,500), which is $500 more than our max potential gain on the spread and the $63 calls already finished the day at $1.10 ($1,100) for a net of $2,400 (so far) off our $1,450 entry on 4/26 – so up 65% in less than a week on the trade we used to…
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Good Fortune For Some As Shares In P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Boom

 

Today’s tickers: PFCB, IMAX & VRA

PFCB - P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, Inc. – Options on the owner and operator of two restaurant chains, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro and Pei Wei Asian Diner, were more active than usual this week following the Company’s fourth-quarter earnings report ahead of the bell on Thursday. Shares are up sharply today on a number of analyst upgrades, trading higher by as much as 8.1% to touch an intraday peak of $38.50. Traders that purchased calls on P.F. Chang’s yesterday despite the Company’s earnings miss, in some cases saw the value of their positions significantly increase overnight. It looks like investors purchased as many as 750 calls at the Mar. $35 strike yesterday for an average premium of $1.34 each. The calls today cost more than two times that amount, with the last traded price on the contracts up at $3.40. Finally, options traders positioning for shares to extend gains purchased some 250 calls up at the Mar. $40 strike at a premium of $0.60 apiece. Investors long the $40 strike calls stand prepared to profit in the event that shares in P.F. Chang’s increase 7.0% over the current price of $37.95 to exceed the effective breakeven price of $40.60 at March expiration. PFCB’s shares last traded above $40.60 back in July 2011.

IMAX - IMAX Corp. – Shares in the entertainment technology company are up 0.35% at $23.81 this morning, down 4.75% off a six-month high of $25.00 reached earlier in the week. The stock has rallied 90.0% off its October 2011 52-week low of $12.57, but options activity on IMAX Corp. today suggests one strategist expects the price of the underlying to reverse course in the near term. The stock and option combo initiated on IMAX in the first hour of…
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Wednesday Wheeeee – We Love it When a Plan Comes Together!

Once again, we're done with our day before you get up.  

In my 5am note to Members, I said: "I see nothing in the news to justify this pre-market "recovery" and I hate to sound like a broken record but I like shorting oil (/CL) if we get below that $102 line with tight stops and the Dow (/YM) is right at 12,400, which is a great spot to short. RUT (/TF) is at 762 and below 760 (same as yesterday) will confirm a downturn but 12,400 is a great line so why wait?"  By 6:26, I was able to follow it up with:

And wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!  There go the Futures!

It's 7:07 and we're still going down, with oil at $101.24 (up $760 per contract) and the Dow at 12,340 (up $300 per contract) and, as Dennis said: "Good enough for steak and eggs for me!"  Roro got up late but still caught the Dow at 6:16 and that was right on the nose for the oil drop as well as we hit it right on the nose this morning and now we're done and waiting for the next good set-up.  

Of course we scale in and scale out of positions as there's no need to get greedy in the Futures, where a single remaining contract catching a $1 move down in oil (now $101.25 again) pays $1,000.  This week, we have even stationed our own Craigzooka in New Zealand, where it's tomorrow – which makes it much easier to bet on today's action as he can tell us what happened already!  Not that today was all that hard to predict, right?  My comment to Members LAST Wednesday was:

It’s been a pretty reliable bet that they tank the markets into the longer-term note auctions because it scares people into T-Bills and keeps the rates low.  From this line-up, it


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Just Another Manic Monday – Value Investing

Up, up and away!  

As I mentioned in Friday’s morning’s post, we did a lot of bottom-fishing on Thursday as we began to develop Disaster fatigue with long plays on XLF at $11.50, shorting TLT at $123, shorting VXX at $49.50, TNA at $34.50, BRK.B at $65, AA at $10.20, VLO at $19, IMAX at $15.75, BA at $58.32, AGQ at $170, CHK at $27.50, DIS at $30.14 and ABX at $47.50.   They were hedged, of course and, for the most part, you still had a nice chance to make those entries on Friday – but not so much this morning as the futures are up about 1.5% already (7:30).  

Friday morning, in my Alert to Members, I reminded them that BCS looked like an excellent VALUE to me, no matter what the PRICE was ($8.75 after hitting $8.40 the day before) and this morning, that PRICE is up well over 10% in EU trading.  Did the VALUE of BCS change materially over the weekend?  Of course not, certainly not by the $4Bn their market cap gained – like the song, the VALUE remains the same – only the highly variable price of a share of BCS is undergoing ch-ch-changes…  

I pointed out similar hedged, long-term plays could be made on GS ($94), MS ($13), BAC ($6) and C ($24).  Of course we hedged them per our discussion in the morning post (TZA was our morning choice but we’re out over 650 on the RUT) but then we went long on EWG (Germany) again with the very aggressive Oct $16,18 bull call spread at $1.30, offset by the sale of the $17 puts for .90 for net .40 on the $2 spread.  10 of those in our virtual $25,000 Portfolio cost $400 and can return $2,000 in less than 30 days if EWG is over $18 and, guess what – they’re over $18 this morning!

Another bullish bet we placed was USO Nov $28/30 bull call spread at $1.30, selling the $27 puts for $1.10 for net .20 on the $2 spread with a 900% upside if USO simply doesn’t drop from where it is now.  That’s what’s nice about options – you don’t need the market to go up to make money good money.  On this trade idea, your worst-case scenario is owning USO at net $27.20, about 10% lower than it…
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TGIF – Stop the Week, We Want to get Off!

What a disaster!  

Of course, that's why we have Disaster Hedges, right?  August 11th was the last time we did a "Hedging for Disaster" post which included a LONG trade idea on gold that's done now (we're short) after gaining over 300%.  We're a little mixed in our results on the other hedges but that means we can SWITCH HORSES – from the trades that have already worked to the ones that haven't yet.  That's how we cash out our winners on a regular basis – it's the pony express of investing.   Our other Disaster Hedges from that post were:  

  • DXD Oct $23 calls at $2, selling Oct $27 calls for $1.15 and the Oct $19 puts for .70 for net .10.  That spread is currently -.05 so down 150% so far and a nice horse to switch to, offering a .05 credit on the $4 spread.  
  • FAZ Oct $65 calls at $22, selling Oct $72 calls for $20 and selling JPM 2013 $20 puts for $2.05 was a net .05 credit as a backstop to our long financial plays.  FAZ is now at $71.34 and the October FAZ spread is now $3.70 but the JPM puts are now $3 so net .70 is only up 1,500% so far.  Should the financials stay low, we get the full $7 from the spread and we're obligated to buy JPM for $20 (now $29.27) in 2013.  
  • SDS Sept $26 calls at $3.20, selling Sept $32 calls for $1.65 and selling VLO Jan $15 puts for $1.20 for net .35.  SDS is only at $25.73 so far (not a disaster yet) and the spread is now net $1.25 and the short VLO puts are .17 so net $1.08 on this one is up 208% and we're not even at goal – that's pretty good!  Note the spread is LOWER than when we started so this can also be used as a fresh horse with a different offset, like X Jan $15 puts for $1.20 for a net .05 trade.  
  • TBT was stopped out with a small loss at $24 (fortunately).  My comment at the time, with TBT at $24.88  was:  "Keep in mind though, that the Fed has said rates will stay low through 2013 so it would be wise to uses stops on the


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All Eyes On IMAX Corp. Calls As Shares Soar

Today’s tickers: IMAX, AMZN, HAL & MU

IMAX - IMAX Corp. – Call options on the entertainment technology company are in demand this morning after shares in IMAX jumped 9.1% roughly 40 minutes into the trading session to an intraday high of $17.63. The sizable move in the price of the underlying coupled with increased trading in IMAX options lifted the stock’s reading of implied volatility 10.3% to 82.95% by 11:05 am ET. The sharp rise in shares and volatility are a boon to investors who appear to have purchased September contract calls on the stock on Friday. Open interest in the Sept. $20 strike call suggest some 1,400 contracts were picked up at an average premium of $0.25 apiece during the final trading session last week. Investors long the calls at $0.25 per contract now hold contracts that have more than doubled in value over the weekend. Traders eyeing the Sept. $20 strike calls this morning exchanged more than 3,800 of the options, exceeding the 2,116 previously existing positions at that strike. It looks like investors purchased around 2,700 of the calls this morning for an average premium of $0.40 each. Call buyers profit if shares in IMAX Corp. jump 15.7% over today’s high of $17.63 to surpass the average breakeven price of $20.40 at expiration in a couple of weeks. The September $20 strike call currently commands an asking price of $0.75 per contract as of 11:15 am in New York.

AMZN - Amazon.com, Inc. – Shares in online retail giant Amazon.com gained 2.8% to $204.76 this morning, but call buyers in the front month are positioning for far more substantial gains in the price of the underlying come September expiration. Call options on AMZN are trading roughly 1.7 times for each single put option in action today, with…
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TGIF – Are We There Yet?

EWG WEEKLY Where is the bottom?  

We are now officially getting silly, with Germany falling another 3% this morning, now down close to 30% in less than a month (see David Fry’s chart) with the banking sector off 50% and more.  To keep that in perspective, the S&P is down less than 20% and even our super-lame Transports (which go down with oil for some reason) are down "just" 24%.  So – do we have another 10% (at least) left to fall or is it kind of ridiculous that AAA-rated Germany, with arguably the World’s strongest economy, should drop 30% in 30 days?  

It looks like EWG is going to open around $19.50 this morning and you should be able to sell the Sept $19 puts for $1+ or the Jan $17 puts for $1.25+, giving Germany another 16% buffer before you have to give that $1.25 back at net $15.75, which is back at the non-spike lows of the crash.  

The VIX spiked up to $42.50 yesterday, that’s higher than it was in April’s sell off and that made an excellent short at the time.  You can sell VXX Sept $45 calls for $3.25 and buy the $45/40 bear put spread for $3.40 for net .15 on the $5 spread.  If the VIX and VXX do move higher, a 2x roll to the Sept $55s (now $1.60) is about even or the Dec $62 calls are currently $3.10 so it would take a pretty major, sustained move up in volatility for the short puts to really hurt.  

Here we are, back at our March lows for the Nikkei and 15% BELOW the March lows for the DAX and 10% below the March lows for the S&P.  REALLY?  Were we too optimistic in March by 15%?  We just had earnings reports and the numbers were generally fine – it’s the outlook that got gloomy, due to all the economic uncertainty.  That’s what happens when your Congress is a bunch of buffoons who are willing to sacrifice the Nation and it’s Citizens in order to improve their political posture

Other than the imaginary problems of debt (it’s been worse) and austerity (a poor solution to address the debt non-issue) and the real problem of the deficit (easily fixable by collecting taxes and cutting military spending) and a slightly slowing economy (caused by the idiotic austerity measures),…
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Income Portfolio – Month Four – Stormy Weather!

Riders on the storm 

Into this house we're born 

Into this world we're thrown 

Like a dog without a bone 

An actor out alone 

Riders on the storm 

 

What a crazy couple of week's we've been having!  Very fortunately, in last month's update of our virtual income portfolio, we had already cashed out $33,084 – more than enough to take us through our first 8 months (our planned $4,000 a month to live on).  We did that using just $200,000 of our $1M in buying power ($500,000 portfolio), staying very conservative and waiting for a bigger dip than the one we had had in June.  

Well, here we are!  We are now 10% below June's bottom and we did do a little bottom fishing, adding positions in WFR, SONC, IMAX, VLO, OIH, TBT and HOLI – positions we'll be reviewing below.  To a large extent, we followed the strategy I called "Don't Just Do Something, Stand There" during this sell-off although it was (and still is) a nail-biter as we tested my August 2nd prediction of the "worst-case" scenario of a 20% drop from the top.  

We stuck to our guns this week and had a lot of fun playing the wild gyrations with our short-term betting but the Income Portfolio is an exercise in managing a "low-touch" portfolio – one that does not require us to make daily adjustments.  I am aware that can be frustrating for people who stare at the markets every day but that is what our short-term trade ideas are for in Member Chat.  That goes for people who are retired or semi-retired too.  You don't HAVE to play every day – or any day for that matter but you do need to…
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Zero Hedge

$13.6BN Money Manager Launches 3X Leveraged "Robotics And Artificial Intelligence" ETF

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

CTAs and quantitative funds are just starting to recover from the historic drubbing they endured during the February "volocaust" when stocks and bonds fell simultaneously in defiance of the funds' carefully calibrated assumptions about asset-price correlations.

And with speculative traders still s...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Apr 22, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Strong start to the week; a weaker end – final tally was a modest move up.   #TRADEWARS(tm) dived down this week as earnings took center stage.

Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K., in a note to investors said fears around a potential trade war and geopolitical concerns “have faded very much.”

The yield on 10 year Treasuries rose to about a 4 year high — still low by historical levels but these have been suppressed for ages so any movement up looks gigantic.   Here is one opinion… but inflation has been a non starter for years by government measures at least.

“Had bonds yields risen because the underlying economy is accelerating, then, we would see higher stock prices too. But Friday’s weakness in stocks suggests that...



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Phil's Favorites

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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Digital Currencies

"The House Always Wins": These Funds Made A Killing As Bitcoin Plunged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Volatility, neutral exposure and market making can still pay - at least for crypto hedge funds.

Despite the fact that cryptos have collapsed across the board so far in 2018, one investing axiom still holds true to this day: the house always wins. Those who have been making a market, keeping neutral net exposure and benefiting from exotic methods of trading cryptocurrencies have continued to have a positive year this year despite the fact that a lot of the underlying cryptocurrency assets have had a terrible year.

...



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Insider Scoop

Cowen Says The Big Sell-Off In Skechers Is A Buying Opportunity

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SKX 25 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Mid-Day Market Update: Skechers USA Falls After Weak Q2 Guidance; Ericsson Shares Climb...

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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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