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Sunday, December 4, 2022

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Wednesday Wheeeee – We Love it When a Plan Comes Together!

Once again, we're done with our day before you get up.  

In my 5am note to Members, I said: "I see nothing in the news to justify this pre-market "recovery" and I hate to sound like a broken record but I like shorting oil (/CL) if we get below that $102 line with tight stops and the Dow (/YM) is right at 12,400, which is a great spot to short. RUT (/TF) is at 762 and below 760 (same as yesterday) will confirm a downturn but 12,400 is a great line so why wait?"  By 6:26, I was able to follow it up with:

And wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!  There go the Futures!

It's 7:07 and we're still going down, with oil at $101.24 (up $760 per contract) and the Dow at 12,340 (up $300 per contract) and, as Dennis said: "Good enough for steak and eggs for me!"  Roro got up late but still caught the Dow at 6:16 and that was right on the nose for the oil drop as well as we hit it right on the nose this morning and now we're done and waiting for the next good set-up.  

Of course we scale in and scale out of positions as there's no need to get greedy in the Futures, where a single remaining contract catching a $1 move down in oil (now $101.25 again) pays $1,000.  This week, we have even stationed our own Craigzooka in New Zealand, where it's tomorrow – which makes it much easier to bet on today's action as he can tell us what happened already!  Not that today was all that hard to predict, right?  My comment to Members LAST Wednesday was:

It’s been a pretty reliable bet that they tank the markets into the longer-term note auctions because it scares people into T-Bills and keeps the rates low.  From this line-up, it seems to me they intend to jack us up on Friday and then zap us on Tuesday as Esther George releases something hawkish ahead of the 3-year and it’s no coincidence that Plosser, by far the biggest Hawk, is given the floor at 12:30 on Wednesday – just 30 minutes before the critical 10-year auction.  Coincidence?  Surely you cannot be that naive!

So that's how we've been playing the past 7 days and it culminated in pressing our bets into yesterdays expected morning pump, leaving our $25,000 portfolio so bearish that I had to warn Members that it would be ugly if our premise was wrong.  We had to swim against the TA tide to hold onto our positions but, once again, Fundamentals triumph in the end.  Tomorrow is the 30-year auction but "only" $13Bn and at least that one pays a semi-realistic 3% (for the optimists, that is) so we're not going to chance that and we'll be taking that bearish money and running into today's sell-off (mostly and see this morning's pre-market chat for more news that's keeping us bearish).  

We weren't all bearish of course and, in fact, why don't we take the opportunity this morning to review the year's trade ideas as I won't want to do this again by next week but this should be interesting while we wait for the open.  It's a good chance to see what's working and what's not in a very choppy market:

Tuesday (in order of posting):

Shorting Dow Futures (/YM) at 12,350 – now 12,350 (I'm ignoring the fact that we caught 12,250 in between)

Shorting Russell Futures (/TF) at 750 – now 760 (same for all of these, just reporting current price as we're in and out of these constantly)

  • Selling FCX 2013 $35 puts for $5.85, now $4.70 – up 20%
  • Buying FCX Feb $40 calls for $1.42, now $2.25 – up 58%
  • Shorting Oil Futures (/CL) at $102.50, now $101.50 
  • Shorting S&P Futures (/ES) at 1,275, now 1,281
  • Shorting Dow Futures at 12,385, now 12,357
  • IMAX 2013 $17/15 buy/write at net $10.50/12.75, now $20.25 – too complicated to explain here but $6.50 upside potential (62%) very much on track – here's my comment to Members at the time (11:05 am):

As a new play, I like IMAX at $18 selling the 2013 $17 calls for $5 and the $15 puts for $2.50 for net $10.50/12.75, which is a LOVELY 29% discount if put to you and a ripping 62% profit if called away $1 LOWER than it is now.  

  • SCO Jan $35/38 bull call spread at $1.35, now $1 – down 25% (yes, we do have losing trades!) 
  • SCO Jan $34 puts sold for $1.10, now $.55 – up 50% (oops, I take it back, not yet!)  
  • DIA Jan $121 puts at $1.05 ($25KP play), now .40 – down 62% (there it is)
  • GLL Jan $18 puts at $1.10 ($25KP play), now .50 – down 55%
  • SONC June $7.50 puts sold for $1.15, now $1.24 – down 8%
  • SONC June $7.50 calls at .55, now .45 – down 18%
  • 3 MON April $70 calls at $5.80 ($25KP), now $11 – up 89%
  • 1 MON Jan $70 call sold for $3.05 ($25KP), now $9.30 – down 204% 
  • 1 MON Jan $72.50 call sold for $1.68 ($25KP), now $6.80 – down 304%

Those downs sound bad but, if you kept that trade as is (we didn't), then the net $1,267 entry is now net $1,690 so up 33% in a week on an earnings ratio backspread and a very nice $577 profit in our virtual $25,000 Portfolio but we're working it to hopefully do a bit better than that.

  • DMND June $37/45 bull call spread at $2.10, now $2.20 – up 5%
  • DMND June $20 puts sold for $1.85, now $1.80 – up 3%
  • Shorting Oil Futures (/CL) at $103, now $101.50
  • AONE 2013 $2.50 puts sold for $1.20, now $1.10 – up 9%
  • AONE 2013 $2.50/5 bull call spread at .25, now .40 – up 60%

Wow, what a busy day!  Of course, we were coming off a very cashy close to 2011 so we were just looking for things to trade.  At the end of Tuesday's Member Chat, early Wednesday morning, we had a nice discussion about Futures trading techniques (always fun in a choppy market) and I had occasion to share my favorite market quote: 

"The man who begins to speculate in stocks with the intention to make a fortune, usually goes broke, whereas the man who trades with a view of getting good interest on his money sometimes get rich." – Charles Dow

Wednesday (we did not like the Fed minutes and I posited my theory for the next week, as above):

  • DIA March $122 puts at $4.10, now $3.30 – down 18%
  • GLL Jan $18 calls at .80, now .50 – down 37%
  • FAS 1/6 $65 pus sold for .78 ($25KP), expired worthless – up 100%
  • TNA Jan $43 puts sold for $2, now .45 – up 77%
  • TNA Feb $43/49 bull call spread at $3, now $3.30 – up 10%
  • QQQ Jan $58 puts at $1.10 ($25KP), now .62 – down 43% (had a stop at .95) 
  • NAK Aug $6 buy/write at $3.80/4.90, now $6.31 – on track for 58% gain
  • Dow (/YM) Futures short at 12,350 – still there.  
  • Oil (/CL) Futures short at $103.75 – now $101.70

Those last two Futures shorts were from the end of Wednesday's chat/Thursday morning and I did a nice play-by-play call of the trades between 2:59 am and 3:52, where we caught the Dow down to 12,300 and oil down to 102.85 – enough to pay for the old Egg McMuffins.  

Thursday:  In the main post, I called BAC my "One Trade" for 2012 – saying if you want to be bullish, you can just buy my BAC spread and walk away.  This was a rare case of initiating a trade in the main post and not in Member Chat but we don't mind giving out samples once in a while…

  • BAC 2013 $5 buy/write (see post for all details) at $3.20/4.10, now $6.58 – on track for 56% gain
  • FAZ 2013 $40/60 bull call spread (small hedge to BAC) at $3.10, now $2.45 – down 20%
  • FAZ 2013 $20 puts sold for $3, now $3.20 – down 7%
  • BKS Feb $10 puts sold for $1.20 ($25KP), now .60 – up 50%
  • BKS at $10.50, now $11.70 – up 11%
  • BKS 2013 $10 puts sold for $3, now $2.50 – up 17%
  • VLO June $18 puts sold for $1.75, now $1.40 – up 20%
  • BBY 2014 $18/27 bull call spread at $4, now $4.60 – up 15%
  • BBY 2014 $18 puts sold for $3.10, now $2.65 – up 14%
  • Shorting Oil Futures at $102.40, now $101.50
  • Shorting Oil Futures again at $103, now $101.50
  • QQQ 1/13 $58 puts at $1.05 ($25KP), now .62 – down 41% 

Notice that, in our $25KP, we are taking a beating (so far) compared to our more balanced general picks.  That's because it's a short-term, VERY AGGRESSIVE virtual portfolio where we're aiming to hit $100,000 by the year's end (otherwise we underperform last year by a mile) and you don't make 300% a year by sitting on the fence!  So, as I mentioned above, we went short to the point of getting nervous yesterday morning – hopefully our theory will be right and we'll be off to a good start for the year.  

Friday – I strongly reiterate my CASH call for the majority of our Portfolios, markets too dangerous to call:  

  • Shorting Dow (/YM) Futures at 12,350, still 12,350
  • QQQ 1/13 $58 puts at $1, now .60 – down 40%
  • CASH!!!!
  • DIA 3/31 $120 puts at $3.35, still $3.35 – even
  • 2 SQQQ Jan $19 puts at $1.45 ($25KP), now $1.70 – down 18%
  • 6 SQQQ Jan $17/18 bull call spreads at .55 ($25KP), now .50 – down 9%
  • CASSSSSSSSSSSH!!!!!! (from the Morning Alert to Members)
  • HOV at $1.65, now $2.05 – up 24%
  • HOV 2014 $1 puts sold for .50, now .45 – up 10%
  • HOV 2013 $1/2 bull call spread at .35, now .45 – up 29%
  • GLL Jan $18 calls at .65 ($25KP), now .50 – down 23%
  • VXX 1/13 $32/33 bull call spread at .30, now .13 – down 56%
  • VXX 1/13 $30 put sold for .35, now .39 – down 11%
  • 5 NFLX Jan $90 calls sold for $3.50 ($1.750), now $8.20 – down 134%
  • 3 NFLX March $100 calls at $6.60 ($1,980), now $11.20 – up 70% 
  • GLW at $13.50, now $14 – up 4%
  • GLW 2014 $12 puts sold for $2.35, now 2.10 – up 11%
  • GLW 2013 $10/15 bull call spread at $2.85, now $3.50 – up 23%

Here's a good lesson about options.  We had 3 ways to play GLW and you could just buy the stock to be bullish and made 4% or you could commit far less that $13.50 to short the $12 puts for a net $9.65 entry, worst case and you make 11% or you can hedge your bet and commit just $2.85 and you not only make 23% in less than a week but you make .65, which is more than you would have made committing 5x more to owning the stock.  Silly, silly stock traders – when will you learn?  

  • 5 AAPL March $425/450 bull call spreads at $10 ($5,000), now $10.10 – up 1%
  • 1 AAPL July $350 put sold for $12.50 ($1,250), now $11.25 – up 10%
  • 2 AAPL Feb $450 calls sold for $6.25 ($1,350), now $6.10 – up 2%

That last one is another bit of options fun as we're taking advantage of high earnings premiums to commit very little cash ($2,400) towards a potential cash out at $12,500 if all goes well (AAPL under $450 in Feb but over in March) with lots of ways to win in between.  That one is still close enough to play from scratch.  

Well, that was last week but now I'm out of time, maybe I'll do this week over the weekend as it's a nice review for newer Members to go over what is working and what is not as we head into full-blown earnings season next week.  Overall, in our first week of 2012, we had 35 winning trade ideas and 19 that we haven't turned around yet (and I'm only kind of joking as turning around those losing trades is how we make our money in the $25KP).  

We'll see how things go into the 10-year auction.  If it goes well, they can afford to use the Beige Book (2pm) to flip the markets back up as the 30-year note auction of $13Bn tomorrow is a rounding error to the Fed!  

And wheeeeeeeeeee!

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rainman – sorry for the late reply, busy afternoon. Likely to be more of the same but nothing that's obviously a game changer to me. Better bottom line for GLW, certainly as it's costing them less to manufacturer it and/or more people will want it. I read something like 40% of GLW's revenue comes from gorilla glass.
Use your imagination though – according to pubmed and this article on this site, a really big dog could bite a sheet of the stuff and it wouldn't be able to chomp through it. That's kind of neat.

Microsoft builds TV subscription service, cancels release due to high licensing costs.
If MSFT can't do it because their pockets aren't deep enough, who can (short of Apple)?

Phil / Oil

Any thoughts about the 3am or early morning oil trading tonight? I’d like to set a alarm if you’re thinking there will be a tradeable setup.

Thanks for the Twinkie money off that 102 line. I let 1 contract run with a .15 trailing stop for a while, so I can pay for food and air conditioning tonight!

zeroxzero………i did mean to write AUD/CAD having higher lows.(vs lower lows)……….spelling needs work.
 
the other thing that stands out is the narrowing price range day over day as the equity indexes creep higher……….

Hi Phil,
Appreciate your comment on VOD Jul 25/20 credit spread (0.75, risking $4.25). Thanks for making "risk" factor obvious and highlighting the "rushed" nature of this purchase..
Thanks.

roro:  I have traded the Euro/Dollar over the last year in an aggressive manner solely because its movements were tightly coupled with equity markets.  This year — what there's been of it — has shown a tendency for that relationship to decouple.  I take that to mean "risk on" for U.S. equities.  The only way to eke out a decent gain on a U.S. stock over the last six months has been to hedge it against the dollar/Euro.  This was weird, but once you had the rhythm of it and knew what to watch, it was workable, and I made good money doing it.
 
But trading currencies straight-up — unless there's a particular policy initiative to be played, as when GBP withdrew from thet ERM in 1992, the famous "Soros broke the Bank of England trade", which I somehow guessed correctly, to excellent effect — is a crap shoot, as Phil points out.  I don't remember why he thinks so, but probably because his method is based on calculating the value vs. price of a given company, and valuing a currency doesn't easily accommodate itself to a "value" approach.
 
I think that, going forward, it's going to be a hell of a lot easier to bet on the universe of beaten-down U.S. companies which have potentially huge upside if the U.S. economy were to really recover.  I'm not one to time this, but it's clear that the U.S. took their hit on real estate valuation and unemployment [i.e., they fired people in droves] while Europe, taken as a whole, either didn't or couldn't.  The Euro is a one-size-fits-all straitjacket that expects Greece and Portugal to compete internationally on the same economic terms as the Germany industrial giant, and "slipping the surly bonds of [Europe]," double entendre intended, has created a very complicated and slow-to-adjust situation.
 
The U.S. is not in great shape either, but our traditional American business practice of throwing half of our employees in the street with six months of unemployment payments and downsizing overnight in response to a downturn, is quick, brutal and effective. Unfortunately, the social policies that emerged in Europe from the ashes of WWII would not permit such a thing.
 
 This fact, coupled with the aforementioned currency straitjacket, has severely limited the Eurozone's range of effective responses to just one: hoping Germany bails out the Peripherals with all those nice tariff-free export earnings they sucked out of them in prior years.   "Austerity" is not an effective response; it is the inverse of an effective response, done in supplication to German sensibilities.  I find it all very sad and counterproductive. 
 
That's a long way of saying that currency bets often turn out to be 50/50 propositions — even the Euro at it's present level, since it might fall apart entirely, or Germany could step up tomorrow and send the Euro to 1.40.  On the other hand, Corning will keep selling Gorilla Glass, Amazon will continue to stomp all over traditional retail, Halliburton will help all the majors frack their brains out, and the Too Big to Fail Four will continue to suckle contentedly from the teat of the Fed. Those are the kind of odds I much prefer.

Now you know the rest of the story behind Gorilla Glass:
 
 
Insights on the writing of Steve Jobs – Fortune Tech
 
Excerpt (from article):  Steve Jobs when he does the iPhone decides he doesn't want plastic, he wants really tough glass on it, and they don't make a glass that can be tough like they want. And finally somebody says to him, because they were making all of the glass in China for the fronts of the stores, says, "You ought to check with the people at Corning. They're kind of smart there." So, he flies to Corning, New York, sits there in front of the CEO, Wendell Weeks, and says, "This is what I want, a glass that can do this." So, Wendell Weeks says, "We once created a type of process that created something called Gorilla Glass." And Steve said, "No, no, no. Here's how you make really strong glass." And Wendell says, "Wait a minute, I know how to make glass. Shut up and listen to me." And Steve, to his credit, shuts up and listens, and Wendell Weeks describes a process that makes Gorilla Glass. And Steve then says, "Fine. In six months I want enough of it to make–whatever it is–a million iPhones." And Wendell says, "I'm sorry, we've actually never made it. We don't have a factory to make it. This was a process we developed, but we never had a manufacturing plant to do it." And Steve looks at him and says what he said to Woz, 20, 30 years earlier: "Don't be afraid, you can do it." Wendell Weeks tells me… Because I flew to Corning, because I just wanted to hear this story. Wendell Weeks tells me, "I just sat there and looked at the guy. He kept saying, 'Don't be afraid. You can do this.'"
 
Wendell Weeks said he called his plant in Kentucky that was making glass for LCD screens, and said, "Start the process now, and make Gorilla Glass." That's why every iPhone in your pocket and iPad has Gorilla Glass made by Corning.

(Because of Steve Jobs …)
 
From Corning PR release:
 
"As one of the company’s fastest growing businesses, Corning Gorilla Glass is expected to reach more than $700 million in 2011 sales, nearly triple 2010 results."

ZZ,
Quick, brutal, and effective, but this time thwarted by not being quick, brutal and effective at dislodging and dismantling the "investment banks" because we have a the helm of our central bank a probably basically good guy who thought he knew how to- as Greenspan put it "thwart an economic nuclear winter."  Greenspan at one point wished that he would have the chance to. There is a point however where might does not make right. Just because you can, doesn't meant you should.

Uh, should we be buying Honda? It produced the natgas Civic GX in Greensburg, Indiana. And are any of the gasoline retail majors ahead in natgas fill-ups?  Or more to the point, which car manufacturer is best positions to take advantage of the advanced age of U.S. automobiles with a natgas option.  Any ideas?
 
"The natural gas-powered Honda Civic won this year’s Green Car of the Year award from Green Car Journal, leading the way for natural gas-powered vehicles to enter the American market. According to the Journal, the car has the cleanest-burning engine ever certified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Civic Natural Gas is currently the only production car of its kind in the United States. Honda has sold more than 2,000 units this year, double previous annual sales numbers. The car costs $5,500 more than a conventional Civic, gets 38 mpg and goes 240 miles per tank. But the higher price is easily offset over time through lower fuel costs; the nationwide average gasoline price was $3.46 per gallon in October, compared to $2.09 for the natural gas equivalent, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Moreover, in terms of energy equivalence, with natural gas it’s like paying $10 for the same amount of energy that is in a $90 barrel of oil.\http://energy.law.wvu.edu/wvulaw_energy_forward/2011/12/7/natural-gas-fired-vehicles-gain-traction-in-u-s–market

ZZ,
Natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than "clean coal" whatever that is. (You can see the effects of sulpher dioxide everwhere in the Smoky Mtns.) The problem is that so far the fracking technology is looking pretty sketchy as far as the environmental effects are concerned. I'm not buying anything at the moment.

Sparky: I'm not sure where you are laying the blame.  If the cuts in U.S. interest rates and Bernanke monetary policies caused the U.S. to recover on the back of a cheap dollar, new domestic energy prospects, and a greatly downsized and restructured industry — showing the capacity to restructure it's industry more rapidly than European countries, and begin the process of economic recovery months or years before they do — then this has surely a good thing for the country.
 
But if your referring to the monstrous unfairness of our citizenry suffering the damage that these unregulated players caused to the country by consciously creating a giant bubble of mis-priced mortgage assets,  while almost entirely escaping responsibility, liability and prison terms, I couldn't agree more heartily.  And it's even worse than that: the banking monopoly not only profited hugely, but have on top of that actually concentrated their oligopoly further within an even tighter, more powerful group.  It is a national scandal.
 
The resultant Great Recession has, and will, entail much suffering on the part of many, if not most, Americans.  The U.S. has lost much international competitiveness over the last 40 years, so it is also inevitable.  The U.S. is second only to Canada in energy use among large countries, and has for some decades enjoyed a public and private debt-fueled standard of living — credit cards, mortgages, and government spending which included gigantic and utterly wasteful military adventures — that was unsustainable.
 
 It was not brought about by ill-fortune; the U.S. has enviable resources per capita compared to most countries.  It was brought about by poor leadership and inadequate regulation of the private sector, however that might have occurred. No American can entirely escape the blame for our plight, however.  Nearly everyone enjoyed an outsized standard of living relative to their actual global productivity for the last few decades, surfing on the strength of a dollar which had become an international medium of exchange.
 
 Seigneurage — the privilege of paying for foreign goods in paper of your own printing — is a powerful drug, and Americans slowly but surely developed an addiction to what it could buy. This will amplify the inequality between Americans who have capital and those whom can offer only labor in exchange for income, unless the U.S. tax structure is modified. 

Sparky:  Nat. gas is poses major greenhouse gas problems as well.  And fracking is undoubtedly primitive and hazardous to our health in its present form.  But with oil over $100 — no, it's not going to go back to $50 and stay there, ever — and nat. gas apparently 1/9th the price per automotive mile, I think it's fair to say that you can buy Greenland real estate and start developing beachfront with no fear of buyers being frightened off by polar bears.  Unless you think the U.S. has improved its ability to regulate rogue industries, a proposition for which there is little evidence, as you point out in respect of investment banks.  

ZZ
Burning natural gas is cleaner than coal or oil, but I'm not convinced that the environmental effects of fracking on our water resources are less noxious than drilling for oil. And yes, what I'm saying is that I think in the long term, having bailed out our bankers on the backs of working people of all classes will turn out to have been a mistake.

One more nail in the coffin for sears . . .
Sears Supplier Loans Are Said to Be Halted by CIT Starting Today
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD)’s suppliers will no longer be able to get loans from CIT (CIT) Group Inc. for their shipments to the retailer, according to two people familiar with the situation.
CIT, the largest U.S. company that provides what’s known as factoring, told clients it would no longer approve credit for orders starting today, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the information isn’t public.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/sears-supplier-loans-halted-by-cit.html
 
factoring is essentially selling AR, so maybe CIT is also worried about the sears consumer too . . . .

zeroxzero
January 11th, 2012 at 10:45 pm
 
Well said.  One of the reasons I don't hang out here so much anymore is because I got tired of saying these things. It became too frustrating for me and unhealthy.  But I'm glad to see someone else doing it.

A clockwork pop on equities across the board as the time turns 04:40………
 
So far, 40 points on the Dow,  25 on the FTSE and 50 points on the DAX

Spanish auction went better than expected, IT yields are dropping
Spain Sells Total EUR10B Government Bonds; Had planned EUR4-5 billion, but stressed it was flexible

zeroxzero……..thanks for your very insightful response. i knew i was knocking on the right door.

So its only up to the earnings to take us down..

Phil………I guess the Spanish bond auction went off nicely so given the context from yesterday and run up in equities early this morning are you thinking this is maybe a short USDX opportunity?
 
Oil is back to $102.00 already.

one thing i don't get is how the FED went from dim FOMC minutes 10 days ago to an upbeat Beige Book in so short a time span.
 
i also get the feeling a lot of the pr is massaged so what is real and not real is difficult to discern, but perception looks like it is everything.

Phil / The Morning
1) Same thing just happened to my Windows 7 PC.  Rebooted without warning, configured updates, and restarted.  At least it opened my browser windows.  I'm turning off Windows auto-updates.
 
2) WordPress has a AutoSave enabled by default for all posts that saves every 60 seconds.  If you log into the PSW blog, http://www.philstockworld.com/wp-admin/, go to Edit Post, under ScreenOptions in the upper right hand corner make sure the Revisions box is checked.  Then it will show you all the Revisions, and a single AutoSave that is updated every 60 seconds.  I'll bet your post is there unless the admin disabled auto-save.
 
3)  What do you think of the 102 line on oil right now?

Sparky/hydraulic fracturing
 
I can't say I know a lot about the subject, but my brother in law is a consulting engineer who has spent the last 30 years going all over the world, drilling core samples, analyzing geological formations, and advising clients on the location and design of landfills for garbage disposal, so he knows something about rocks and avoiding contamination of drinking water.
 
He says that fracking fluid is almost entirely  water and that the chances of it contaminating the general water supply in rock formations that are not local to the drilling is zero. There have been some suspicions of some escaping methane leaking upwards into aquiferous strata in fracking areas, but in general the hydrocarbon bearing rocks are much deeper than the stata that have water, so the likelihood of contamination is slight. Leakage is more likely to occur from poorly maintained surface ponds where excess or used fracking fluid is collected and stored in mining areas, but this is more an operational problem than anything to do with the inherent nature of fracking fluid. This fluid may have absorbed or dissolved other hydrocarbon minerals from underground as it is often slightly acidic.

Anyway, not much chance of the Great Lakes becoming undrinkable.

So the recycle of the LTRO funds are evidenced by the bond auctions, indicating that ECB will monetize the euro debt problem via backdoor QE.   And a turning point has been reached, but why am I so hesitant to accept it?   Seems like the market is feeling the same – one would expect an explosive move if the market believed the risk in the euro banking system has been addressed.  No doubt that ECB is accepting junk sovereign collateral to recapitalize the banks and in return the banks are bidding on the debt rollover auctions at lower rates, the first actions which finally seem to be coordinated.  How long will it last?

roro/news massage
 
Almost all news is massaged in some way, unfortunately. This becomes rather apparent when you watch the TV news here in the Dominican republic and see unvarnished  reports of murders where bloody corpses are shown lying on the floor with closeups of their machete wounds, or automobile accidents where there are pools of blood in the road. In one that I saw a man was being arrested for the murder of his neighbor while protesting his innocence, and the cameraman shouted at him "so why do you have blood on your clothing?" How come these things are never seen on US TV?

Fracking Movie
 
Anyone see this yet?  It was really interesting for a Sunday night…
GASLAND
"The largest domestic natural gas drilling boom in history has swept across the United States. The Halliburton-developed drilling technology of "fracking" or hydraulic fracturing has unlocked a "Saudia Arabia of natural gas" just beneath us. But is fracking safe? When filmmaker Josh Fox is asked to lease his land for drilling, he embarks on a cross-country odyssey uncovering a trail of secrets, lies and contamination. A recently drilled nearby Pennsylvania town reports that residents are able to light their drinking water on fire. "
http://www.gaslandthemovie.com/about-the-film

it is looking like a dump the dollar.

Good morning AAPL lovers!    AAPL up $2.50 in premarket trading and I'm sensing a possible  play today on the weeklies.   I'll get back with you on that if and when I see it.  And those 20 QQQ Jan monthly $60 puts in the AAPL portfolio………I'll likely place a stop-loss on them this morning at about 1.80.   Note that  I manage downside protection a bit differently than most.  I don't simply buy it and hold.  I just don't like to lose money.  So if I see DSP moving in the wrong direction, I don't hesitate to  unload it like I would any other holding.   Later.

Fracking/NG
"The environmental impacts of shale development
are challenging but manageable. Research and
regulation, both state and Federal, are needed to
minimize the environmental consequences"

http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/documents/natural-gas-2011/NaturalGas_ExecutiveSummary.pdf
MIT study. Reportedly funded by it's proponents; Useful, nonetheless.

Phil / Post
You have to actually Click the post, which puts it in Edit mode.  THEN click Screen Options in the upper right corner.  You will find Revisions button there.
The actual Revisions are generally at the bottom then of the post.

Fracking – Challenging, I'm sure. Manageable? Please…..

Largest shareholder suing Wynn.   Smells like a corruption probe to come…Wynn gives $125mm to University of Macau, such an american patriot.   Ever hear Steve rail on Obama?   He's not doing much to support Las Vegas, UNLV or displaced Las Vegas workers!
 
http://www.lvrj.com/business/largest-shareholder-of-wynn-resorts-sues-company-137132143.html

Wynn down 7.5% pre-market.

FAS is strangling us Stranglers today.  Up +2 premarket to 78.

Wynn has gone from hero to a bitter old goat…. Elaine kept his oars in the water….

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