Posts Tagged ‘Intel’

THE ONLY NEWS THAT MATTERED TODAY

THE ONLY NEWS THAT MATTERED TODAY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Dead end sign with bullet holes

Bernanke is out of bullets.  Anyone who can’t see that by now is not familiar with the Japanese history of QE or the most recent impacts of QE (Ben clearly didn’t save the economy with QE1 or we wouldn’t even be having this discussion).  He says he will cut interest on reserves or alter the language in his speeches – total non-events in my opinion. They might get the market all excited for a few hours, but soon people will realize that none of these actions will actually fix the recession on Main Street.

Aside from all the jawboning out of the Fed, there was some actual market moving news today. Intel cut its Q3 earnings. According to the AP:

“Intel said it now expects revenue of $10.8 billion to $11.2 billion for the fiscal third quarter, which ends in September. That compares with a previous forecast of $11.2 billion to $12 billion.

On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected $11.5 billion.”

This is big news in my opinion.  Not only are semiconductors economically sensitive, but Intel has been crushing estimates quarter after quarter for almost two years.  As we mentioned the other day, we could be at a crucial turning point where the economy is slowing substantially and analysts estimates appear high.  If Intel is any early indication it would seem to verify this thinking which means we are likely to see more warnings and a lot of analyst cuts in the coming months.  Earnings are the linchpin holding this market together. A decline in earnings will certainly put pressure on the markets.


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Quick Comment on Intel, Earnings

Quick Comment on Intel, Earnings

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Germany's Best eSports Teams Gather At Intel Friday Night Games

I’m running around to meetings with clients today, but I thought I’d check in and opine on the first few earnings reports of the quarter…

9 months ago, on the heels of Intel’s ($INTC)Q2 2009 earnings report, I blogged "And a Chipmaker Shall Lead Us".  My premise was that good news for Intel was good news for a host of geographic regions and different industries because of how ubiquitous their products are.  The Dow was probably somewhere in the 8000′s then.

Intel trounced expectations once again last night and, combined with a terrific report out ofJPMorgan ($JPM), these numbers have provided the ammo needed for a more convincing break above Dow 11,000 than what we saw in the prior two days of trading.

Unlike a Citigroup ($C) or a Wells Fargo ($WFC), one really can’t rip into an Intel earnings report and spout off about how it’s all false and manipulated and obfuscated.  With Intel, profits is profits.

Anyway, the market seems to like the news, but the week ain’t over yet…GE ($GE), Google ($GOOG) and Bank of America ($BAC) are in the on deck circle.  It remains to be seen whether or not they can measure up to the reports we’ve seen thus far.

Carry on.  


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Intel: Nice Performance, But….

Basically favorable review of the Intel results by Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker:

Intel: Nice Performance, But….


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The Danger of Earnings Season Extrapolation

The Danger of Earnings Season Extrapolation

gulliver

Gulliver and the Lilliputions

Yes, we all get excited when an Amazon.com scorches their earnings forecast or when an Apple Inc. Suge Knights the whole sell-side with a massive beat, but should that enthusiasm really spread to other stocks?

One of the dangers of extrapolating the good earnings reports out of Apple, Amazon or Intel is that in reality, these three companies have no real competitors.  I know they pretend they do (or even imagine they do), but trust me, they don’t.  Let’s take them one by one.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple has a monopoly – on Apple products!  They don’t compete with Dell for the simple reason that Dell doesn’t sell iPhones or Mac laptops, they only sell Dell stuff.  Hewlett-Packard, while a great company in their own right, also doesn’t sell iPods or own the world’s most important music store (iTunes). 

Apple is a de facto monopoly and so their results are only very indirectly meaningful to the sellers of any other personal technology products.  In fact, their success can be downright detrimental to the results of others (go ask Nokia or whatever jackass is working on the next iteration of the Microsoft Zune).

Amazon.com (AMZN)

The Buffetts of the world prefer owning companies that have a wide moat, meaning they have a barrier against other companies who would look to compete.  Amazon has moat that is filled, not unlike its titular river, with enough piranhas to eat any pretender alive who dares to set up shop.  Oh, and the piranhas in Amazon’s moat are armed to the teeth and carry an especially lethal venom containing a mixture of swine flu, asbestos and arsenic.  

There’s a digital graveyard somewhere in Silicon Valley filled with the remains of such pretenders, like eToys, Buy.com, CDNow and anyone else still hanging around.  And don’t get me started on Barnes and Noble, I buy and read 50 or 60 books a year and I still don’t even know their e-store’s URL.

poodleIntel (INTC)

Referring to AMD versus Intel as a David and Goliath situation is being way too generous.  In actuality, Intel’s Goliath is really battling David’s pet poodle, named Pumpernickel.  AMD has been nipping at Intel’s ankles for as long as I’ve been in the business, to


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A Quick Daily Look at Google and Intel

A Quick Daily Look at Google GOOG and Intel INTC

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

With Google (GOOG) announcing earnings that ‘disappointed’ Thursday night and Intel’s (INTC) earnings earlier in the week surprised, let’s take a quick look as of July 17th at these two market moving stocks.

First, with Google (GOOG):

google chart

Google, like Apple (AAPL), has been in a very strong uptrend off the early March lows.  With only one pullback before the June highs, price rose almost without pausing.

risky, playing earnings, rolling diceThe run-up into the June high was tremendously powerful (that’s why people trade Google – for the action and volatility) which terminated in a doji that gapped up into an exhaustion/reversal bar just above $440.

We had an “abc” move down off those highs into what appears to have formed a “double top” at prior resistance with a slight negative momentum divergence.

Notice how volume spiked Thursday as traders/investors took positions in expectation of blow-away profits (similar perhaps to Intel).  Playing the ‘earnings game’ can be very risky, as expectations were not met by Google’s latest announcement.  We are now in a ‘pullback/retracement’ mode.

Next, on to Intel (INTC):

Intel Chart

As opposed to Google, expectations for Intel (INTC) were  lower, and so better than expected numbers caused the stock to surge, driving the S&P minis up nine points after Tuesday’s close (which preceded a trend day on Wednesday… though strangely enough Intel formed a doji on Wednesday and a ‘trend day’ on Thursday).

Volume surged to a new 2009 high as did price and the 3/10 momentum oscillator – all signs of fresh and enduring momentum that should lead to higher prices in the established up-trend (though expect a pullback/retracement instead of a parabolic rally – the new momentum high indicates a short-term overbought reading, as do all oscillators).

So it’s a different picture as painted by two market leaders.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Photo:  A Winning Miss, Buxom woman rolling dice, copyrighted by Art Photo Co., Grand Rapids, Mich, Wikipedia.

 


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Intel: Too Much, Too Far, Too Fast

In this second article by Karl, he examines Intel’s quarterly results and is not as excited as the market. Why? Layoffs. Intel excels at cost management – good for Intel, but not a sign of healthy economic recovery. – Ilene

Intel: Too Much, Too Far, Too Fast

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Intel, quarterly resultsAnd too euphoric:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Intel Corp’s quarterly results and outlook blew past Wall Street forecasts on better-than-expected consumer demand for PCs, especially in Asia, setting an auspicious tone for the technology sector.

Uh, well….

Sure, if you just read the PR on the earnings.

Someone filed that story before the conference call, or simply ignored it.

The strong growth came in Asia, specifically China, which blew out a huge stimulus program.  Ok.

But it was specifically stated on the conference call that US consumer sales were weak, and repeating what DELL said earlier, so are enterprise sales.

The quote that was chosen is rather humorous:

Smith told Reuters that computer markets were strengthening and there were "pockets of relative strength" in consumer PC markets, as well as in the Asia Pacific and in China.

Pockets of relative strength.

Yes, there are.  Netbooks in particular are relatively strong – a new, very-low-cost alternative to laptops.  $300, 400, 500 machines – not the $1,000+ machines previously sold, and they’re replacing the demand that used to be filled by those $1,000 machines!  That’s not so good.

Neither is this:

Executives warned that the corporate market remained weak, and Intel does not expect much change in the second half.

Heh wait a second – I thought this was a bullish report for capital spending and the chip sector?  No?  IBM’s primary market is to enterprise customers, not consumers.

The bigger problem for Intel is its P/E – now well over 20, its just too high – unless we get a very strong economic recovery.

If you’re in the Dennis Kneale camp on that, have at it.  I’m going to pay close attention to the reaction in the real market tomorrow when the stock opens for trading by the pros – not the aftermarket daytrader games of the evening, with most of that volume happening before the…
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ValueWalk

Healthcare M&A Value Surges In Q3 As Large Transactions Resurrect Deal Making

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

According to a recent S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis, the aggregate value for healthcare M&A increased sharply in Q3, both compared to the first half of the year and the year-ago period, as three deals crossed the $15 billion mark.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Resurgence In Deal-Making Activity Boosts Healthcare M&A Value

Aggregated transactions...



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Phil's Favorites

Disney's pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

 

Image by Eiji Kikuta from Pixabay

 

Disney’s pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

Courtesy of Hamza Mudassir, Cambridge Judge Business School

Disney has announced a significant restructuring o...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Disney's pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

 

Image by Eiji Kikuta from Pixabay

 

Disney’s pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

Courtesy of Hamza Mudassir, Cambridge Judge Business School

Disney has announced a significant restructuring o...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper/Gold Indicator Breaking Out Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Doc Copper/Gold ratio broke above a 2-year falling channel back in 2016 at (1). Following this breakout, it rallied for the next year. During that year, Copper related assets did very well!

The ratio peaked in the summer of 2018 and created a series of lower highs over the past two years.

The strength of late has the ratio attempting to break above dual resistance at (2).

If the ratio continues to push higher and succeeds in breaking out, Copper, Basic Materials (XLB), and ...



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Zero Hedge

Mystery Trader Shocks Market With Giant VIX Put Trades

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While everyone is familiar with the exploits of the notorious vol trader Ruffer LLP, better known in the market as "50 cent" for his penchant for buying deep OTM VIX calls which while usually expiring worthless, occasionally make a killing, such as the $2.6 billion the fund made during the March crash when VIX soared, a new and heretofore unknown player has emerged in the vol space. And because this particular trader's bet appear to be on a reduction in volatility Perhaps we can call him minus 50 cent?

According to Bloomberg, which first reported the mystery trader's exploits, so large w...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Politics

Dan's Covid Charts: Blue States vs. Red States Over Time

 

The trend of lower Covid-19 case numbers per capita in blue states compared to red states isn't itself surprising, but the magnitude of the differences may be. You can visualize the evolving differences in case loads by watching the infection's progression, as measured by cases per capita, at Dan's website.

[Visit Dan’s COVID Charts to see these amazing animated charts and more. Fortunately, Dan broke his Twitter hiatus to share his work.]

People say I should break my 12-year Twitter hiatus to share my latest animated COVID chart. It compares state cases factoring in partisanship since June 1, when science had proven methodology as to how to stop the spread after the initial sucker punch. ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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