Posts Tagged ‘Karl Denninger’

Interview: Chaostheorien

Interview: Chaostheorien

Karl Denninger Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

Good reading here, if you’re interested in my views "in a nutshell":

Karl Denninger, the publisher of “The Market Ticker”, in an exclusive interview for chaostheorien.de: “In order to honestly assess what’s going on and what has to be done to fix the problems, we first must admit our mistakes.” Furthermore he says why the financial system is more and more a farce, gives his stance on the prospects of a military dictatorship in the United States, and explains his position with regard to Peak Oil.

Have a read….. but grab a beer first. 

 


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High-Frequency Trading: Something Black?

High-Frequency Trading: Something Black?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

Now this is interesting, coming from the annual "black hat" conference in Las Vegas (for those not involved in the computer security world, that’s an annual gathering of hackers where various presentations are made that amount to brags and bags that have or can be run on various parts of information technology):

Among the talks conspicuously absent from this year’s schedule: a presentation exposing security vulnerabilities in banks’ high-speed trading systems.

The talk, planned by security researchers Varun Uppal and Gyan Chawdhary, would have dealt with methods for hiding risky unauthorized trades in high-speed trading applications, as well as demonstrating a "sniffing" software tool capable of siphoning trading information to a faraway hacker to allow a high-tech form of real-time insider trading. But Uppal tells us that the talk has been cancelled after concerns were raised by a financial industry client of the security auditing firm he works for, Information Risk Management.

Methods eh?

I suppose we’re supposed to believe that this is all theoretical, right?

Oh, somehow I doubt it.

And why?

Well, it wouldn’t have anything to do with firms intentionally ignoring security capabilities for reasons of SPEED, would it?  (Note that encryption, in particular, is rather slow comparatively.  Plain text is of course very fast.)

While security measures for FIX programs are available, Uppal says he’s audited firms that ignore them for convenience or speed. Uppal says that could allow a hacker to monitor a bank’s trades and make near-simultaneous ones, or even steal a bank’s unique trading algorithm.

Oh, they would do that.  That’s very nice.

New?  Oh no.  It’s not new either

In a 2007 Black Hat presentation, David Goldsmith and Jeremy Rauch of Matasano Security listed systematic problems with the security of high speed trading systems such as the difficulty of encrypting trade data and banks’ reluctance to add any security that might slow down the transactions,

Right.  Speed before security.  Engage in an arms race and if someone else gets unlawful advantage as a consequence of your refusal to follow best practices, well, that’s too damn bad.

Let’s contrast that with what happens in the Interbank (e.g. Visa, MasterCard, Discover, etc) networks.  There if you store unencrypted cardholder data (it’s faster and easier!) or if you use unencrypted transport between…
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I Love 33:1 Leverage – BIS

I Love 33:1 Leverage – BIS

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

Amusing news here out of BIS….

When it comes to the calibration, the Committee is proposing to test a minimum Tier 1 leverage ratio of 3% during the parallel run period.

Ah, now that’s nice.  How do we get that sort of leverage ratio being "allowed"?  I wonder if Germany’s banks might have something to do with that….

I’ve read the entire report; Bloomberg has a "sanitized" version is that is mostly ok in it’s interpretation – the key point being:

July 26 (Bloomberg) — The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision softened some of its proposed capital and liquidity rules …..

Right.

Someone needs to tell these clowns that both Lehman and Bear blew to the sky with leverage ratios around 30:1, and that their "proposal" allows more than double the former legal limit for investment banks in the US (before Hanky Panky Paulson got the SEC to remove the limit, of course.)

I suppose we need another global financial detonation before people start taking the words "leverage" and "reserves" seriously.  Heh, you all know my view on this: One Dollar of Capital.

But if you do that, you have banks that are clearing agents for the economy and utility providers of credit, with each dollar of risk they take being pre-funded by an equity or debt purchaser who stuck THEIR money into the pot, knew they could lose it, and will demand a REASONABLE return.

That is, banks would be stodgy businesses again that paid out most of what they earned in dividends, and that would typically be 5 or 7% a year – and that’s it. 

The common bankster’s salary would be a middle-class wage in the middle of America – a middling-five-figure number.

And the looting of the world’s commerce through finding some way to skim off a piece of each and every transaction, amounting in the totality of the marketplace to a colossal tax of well over a trillion dollars in the United States alone each and every year, would end.


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Oil Spew Update: Where’s The Doom?

Karl Denninger separates fact and fiction in the Gulf Oil Spill story. 

Oil Spew Update: Where’s The Doom?

RACCOON ISLAND, LA - JULY 15: Pelicans are seen atop a piece of a destroyed boat July 15, 2010 at Raccoon Island, Louisiana. Biologists say at least 300 pelicans have been smeared with oil on the island, which is the largest nesting area for seabirds on the coast of Louisiana. BP is testing a new oil cap, and is temporarily allowing oil to leak from a second pipe as part of preparations for closing the valves to see if the cap can withstand the pressure and stop the flow of oil into the gulf. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

I was promised an earth-shattering ka-doom!

Well, not really.

And the spew is not, in fact, funny.

But what’s even less funny is the number of people who have come completely unhinged with their "imminent death of everything and everyone" nonsense.

Let’s go down the list of the some of the better ones:

Everyone who worked on the Exxon Valdez spill is dead (or alternatively, that across the entire population of those who worked on the Valdez spill, the average age of death is 51.)

Really? Can you source that? I’ve been trying. Yeah, I’ve found the claim – 10 seconds with Google finds it. It’s been repeated everywhere. CNN had an alleged "expert" on who made the 51 year life expectancy claim – "almost all who worked on the Exxon Valdez cleanup are now dead."

Can I find an actual documented source for the claim? Nope. And I’ve tried to find it. No luck.

The same interviewee claimed that the components of the dispersent, Corexit, were not disclosed.  This we know to be false; there are two formulations and we know what’s in them.  The nastiest component is called "Butyl Cellusolve", and is indeed a nasty chemical solvent.  The question is concentration; incidentally, you can buy cleaning solutions containing butyl cellusolve at Home Depot, among other places.  I don’t recommend drinking it.

All of these claims appear to be traceable to one so-called self-identified "expert."  If she has actual evidence, such as a roster of all the people who worked on the Exxon Valdez, their ages, and the disposition of their health (and death, as she alleges) then let’s have it.  This sort of extreme claim requires strict proof.  Period.

There is a second well that BP (and/or Diamond Offshore) is hiding that is the real leak that is five (or alternatively seven) miles away; this is a sideshow and they can’t plug either.  The pressures are off the charts, never encountered before.

Really?  Then how come they just did plug the well?  Off the charts?  About two weeks ago there was a pressure gauge on one of the downhole lines, and it read 7,000 psi.  The water at that depth exerts ~2,000 psi.  If this was an absolute gauge (probably true) then the in-bore relative pressure (relative to the sea floor) was…
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Apple Needs Some RF Design Engineers

Apple Needs Some RF Design Engineers

A Chinese man walks past a authorized Apple retailer in Beijing on July 12, 2010. Despite a new flagship showroom that just opened in Shanghai, Apple is striving to overcome price disadvantages and an underground market. Most fans of its Apple products here have been buying their iPhones, iPods and Mac computers from smugglers who operate through underground electronics markets.  UPI/Stephen Shaver Photo via Newscom

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

Yep, as I suspected….

It’s official. Consumer Reports’ engineers have just completed testing the iPhone 4, and have confirmed that there is a problem with its reception. When your finger or hand touches a spot on the phone’s lower left side—an easy thing, especially for lefties—the signal can significantly degrade enough to cause you to lose your connection altogether if you’re in an area with a weak signal. Due to this problem, we can’t recommend the iPhone 4.

That’s Consumer Reports, incidentally, which put the phone in an RF-isolated room to perform their tests along with a base-station emulator.

Oops – that’s about as close to proof as you’re going to find.  In an RF-quiet environment it’s pretty easy to prove your case, and it appears that CR did so.

The tests also indicate that AT&T’s network might not be the primary suspect in the iPhone 4′s much-reported signal woes.

"Might" not?  

I have never been impressed with the iPhone (any generation) in terms of RF.  Ever. It has always been a "form before function" device from my perspective, all the way back to the original units.  Then again I’m spoiled – the best RF-performing GSM phone I’ve ever used was a Nokia 3395.  I may still have one laying around here somewhere, and all of my old Nokias (including a 6610 which was nearly as good) still work just fine.  Old, yes, but one thing Nokia does know how to do is design and build an RF section.

Incidentally, buying devices that work before selecting them for "sex appeal" may be why I’ve never had a material problem with the "can you hear me?" BS that so many suffer with when it comes to cellphones.  I guess my view is that a cellphone is for communicating rather than trying to shag some hot chick at the local bar by flashing my "bling."

This is a common flaw for consumer devices – be sexy rather than be smart – or good.  Of course sex sells, and so the more "sexy" you can make something look the better it sells, and as long as you remain within the "acceptable" functionality envelope you don’t get hurt – too badly.  Witness Motorola, which had the "hot" phone for a long time…
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Market Manipulation On Display

Market Manipulation On Display

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

Rarely does it get this blatant….. this sort of crap goes on every day, but once in a while it’s just "in your face." 

Tonight was one of those examples.

 


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Whistling Past The Graveyard?

Whistling Past The Graveyard?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker 

In less than two minutes, here it is…. 

 


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Has Alan Grayson Lost His Mind?

Karl Denninger on Alan Grayson’s proposal:

Has Alan Grayson Lost His Mind?

I generally like Alan so I was stunned to see this bit of pandering - although perhaps I shouldn’t be, given that it’s election season and every one of the critters in Congress is trying desperately to justify their salaries.

5 minutes of worthwhile video, but….. (you knew there would be a "but", right?)

Yes, we could cut the separate funding for Afghanistan and Iraq.  Of course we would then have the troops here, which still results in them being paid salaries, right?

The cost of a war isn’t just fuel for planes, bombs to drop and bullets to shoot.  It is also salaries for our soldiers, salaries for the development of weapons, salaries for places like Eglin and other bases.  If the total spent goes down that support to the economy goes down too.

You won’t see me argue for greater federal spending in the general sense.  But I will argue that until and unless you deal with the energy situation and our 40 years of stupidity in that regard walking away from the sources of our nation’s energy isn’t exactly smart.

Worse, however, Alan Grayson wants to give 90% of the money he would "save" through this move to "the people", thereby not actually withdrawing the deficit spending (which we should do), but instead shifting it.

$16 billion of "deficit reduction", so he claims.  But he’s not mentioning the $1.6 trillion in deficit that we have.

Cutting $160 billion wouldn’t be all that bad of an idea – that would be 10% of the deficit, and might actually matter.  Indeed, it would be what I’d call "a good start."

But 1%? 

That’s pissing into a hurricane.

Nice try at populism draped in a false cloak of "fiscal responsibility" Alan.

It’s unfortunate that "on the numbers" your bill displays an IQ smaller than your shoe size.


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To Greece: Nut Up Or Shut Up

Karl Denninger’s advice…

To Greece: Nut Up Or Shut Up

Time to call the bluff:

The euro fell from the session high against the dollar and Swiss franc on Wednesday after Greece categorically denied market rumors which said it was considering leaving the European Union or the euro zone.

Of course that didn’t take long to be "officially denied":

"We categorically deny any thought of leaving the European Union, or the euro zone," said government spokesman George Petalotis.

Then you have no chance.

Let’s be clear: The only way to do this is by surprise.  Unilaterally, without any discussion with anyone else.  Just like Germany did.

And Greece should do it right here, right now, today.

Nail those European Banks that played "too cute by half" and bought Greek debt expecting an intervention and "sticksave", then effectively extorted the Eurozone nations into providing it, exactly as happened here in the US with Fannie and Freddie paper.

Note that Spain was unable to make its debt auction yesterday; they are thus going to be unable to fund the alleged bailout.  As such the promises Greece was made are in fact empty, and intended to screw the Greek people and their government.

It is time for someone to stand up and say in return "screw you!" to such tactics.  Germany has laid the groundwork, now Greece needs to deliver the "coup de grace" to Sarcozy and his butt-buddies in Brussels.

Depart the Euro and at the same time declare by fiat all Euro-denominated Greek debt held…
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FOMC Analysis 4/28

FOMC Analysis 4/28

Courtesy of Karl Denninger 

Tickerguy’s translation:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve.

Borrowing and spending 10% of GDP makes it appear the economy is doing reasonably well and has improved.  We continue to accumulate GDP distortions, however, and now are up to about 52%, or twice what we were going into 1931.

Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.

That 52% distortion comes out of private demand, of course, and that shows up directly in unemployment, lack of real income growth (it’s negative when one removes transfer payments and handouts) and house prices.  No banker in their right mind will lend to someone without a job or assets, ergo, credit remains tight.

Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.

Business people are not as stupid as we think you are.  Indeed, they’re putting pins in the Kewpie dolls with my name on them – daily.

Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level.

Without a job you can’t buy a house, and nobody in their right mind would buy an overpriced house irrespective of income.  We did that before and conned America – they wised up.  Damn.

While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.

Goldman Sachs’ HFT algorythm has been successful in passing shares of stock between each other and producing faux "prosperity" in the stock market.  Ain’t it grand?

Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

The stock market, on the other hand, has priced in a roaring recovery.  Oh, and that claim of "price stability"?  Don’t look at oil, eh?  No inflation there!

With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

Yes, we have record oil inventories
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ValueWalk

iPhone 12 demand for Apple stock is already priced in

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a report that demand for the iPhone 12 is strong, although that may not have much of an impact on Apple stock. Analyst reports are mixed on what the iPhone 12, the first model with 5G, will mean for Apple stock.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Demand for iPhone 12 looks strong, but it's already priced into Apple stock

According to 9to5Mac, Kuo said demand for the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max is better than expec...



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Zero Hedge

JPMorgan Makes $1 Billion From Gold Trading After Paying $1 Billion Fine For Manipulating Gold Trading

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

This, in a nutshell, is how Wall Street works: just two months after JPMorgan was fined a record $1 billion criminal monetary penalty (to make sure not a single banker would end up going to prison) for rigging the gold and silver markets, Reuters reported that JPM - having clearly "learned" the tools of the gold rigging trade, has earned a record $1 billion in revenue so far in 2020 from trading, storing and financing precious metals, vastly outperforming rival banks.

The math simplified: JPM has spent $1 billion over the l...



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Phil's Favorites

Coronavirus Could Cause Shipping Costs To Rise By Up 15% In 2020

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Managing Shipping Budgets in 2021: The Old Normal, the New Normal, or the Unknown?

As they plan their shipping budgets for the coming year, distributors and retailers are struggling to assess the pandemic-driven changes of 2020. SkyPostal’s A.J. Hernandez suggests a two-sided approach: be as careful as you can, while also being prepared for anything.

Building A Shipping Budget

(Miami, FL) November 23, 2020—While shipping managers would like to see some relief from the shocks and surprises of 2020, there are, says A.J. Hernandez, President and CEO of SkyPostal, Inc., a lot of reasons they’re probably not going to get it. According to a recent survey of industry exp...



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Politics

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

 

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

Courtesy of Teri Kanefield

The Trump Legal team filed more documents today in the appellate court. I tweeted a bit about how silly they were (let me know if you all want me to march through them). Then this happened:

Trump giving the go-ahead for the transition to get underway was (I believe) the closest he will get to conceding the election. Two amusing things happened. First, Trump tweeted this about 10 minutes after Emily Murphy submitted a letter saying she would move forward, and that she has made her decisions solely on her own and not at anyone’s direction. Looks like Trump wanted people to think that she was, in fact, acting at his direction.

The other amusing part was that Tr...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 12 June 2020, 08:06:43 PM

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Comment: Interesting (2)



Date Found: Saturday, 13 June 2020, 12:27:02 AM

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Comment: Recession Forecasts Time Frame



Date Found: Monday, 15 June 2020, 11:07:52 PM

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Biotech/COVID-19

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

 

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

Courtesy of Michael Head, University of Southampton

In the long dark tunnel that has been 2020, November stands out as the month that light appeared. Some might see it as a bright light, others as a faint light – but it is unmistakably a light.

On November 9, Pfizer announced the interim results of its candidate vaccine, showing it to be “more than 90% effective” in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in late-stage human trials. The news was greeted with joy.

A ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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