Posts Tagged ‘LMT’

Brookdale Senior Living Options Pop On Sunrise deal

 

Today’s tickers: BKD, CHS & LMT

BKD - Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. – The operator of retirement communities and assisted living facilities may be rallying in sympathy with Sunrise Senior Living, Inc. after that company agreed to be acquired by Health Care REIT, Inc., in an all-cash deal valued at $1 billion or $14.50 a share. Brookdale’s shares are currently up better than 8% on the day and more than 25% year-to-date; trading at a fresh 52-week high of $21.52 just before 12:00 p.m. EDT. Options on BKD are far more active than usual today, with volume exceeding 2,200 contracts versus the stock’s 90-day average daily options volume of 243 contracts. Most of the trading traffic in Brookdale options is in the Jan. 2013 $20 strike put where 2,010 lots changed hands against zero open positions. Time and sales on the trading indicates one strategist sold 1,700 of the put options at a premium of $1.25 apiece in the first hour of the trading session. The put seller keeps the full amount of premium received on the transaction as long as shares in Brookdale settle above $20.00 at January expiration. The trader could wind up having 170,000 shares of the underlying put to him at an effective price of $18.75 each in the event the contracts land in-the-money at expiration.

CHS - Chico’s FAS, Inc. – Shares in women’s apparel and accessories retailer, Chico’s FAS, Inc., jumped 8.8% to a multi-year high of $18.58 after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and sales ahead of the opening bell this morning. The clothing company also raised the low end of its prior forecast for full year 2012 revenue, helping the stock rally to the highest intraday price since August 2007. Options traders positioning for shares in the retailer to extend gains during the next five months snapped up around 700 calls at the Jan. 2013 $21 strike for an average premium of $0.60 apiece today. Call buyers may…
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The Price is Right for Lockheed Martin Corp. Call Buyers

Today’s tickers: LMT, KO, LNG & NUAN

LMT - Lockheed Martin Corp. – President Barack Obama’s proposal to cut $400 billion from the Pentagon’s budget through 2023 sent shares in Lockheed Martin lower this week, providing one contrarian options player the opportunity to pick up May contract call options at a steep discount this morning. Lockheed’s shares fell as much as 3.2% at the start of the session to touch an intraday low of $75.81, which marks a 6.7% total decline off Monday’s high of $81.22. Talks of reining-in defense spending pushed some options players to put options, but most of the volume in LMT options on Thursday is in out-of-the-money calls. More than 10,500 calls changed hands at the May $80 strike on paltry previously existing open interest of just 452 contracts. It looks like most of these calls were purchased by bullish players positioning for a rebound in the price of the underlying stock by May expiration. Investors may be picking up the calls in anticipation of a rally following Lockheed Martin’s first-quarter earnings report on April 26, 2011. Call buyers paid an average premium of $0.81 per contract for the options this morning. Premium on the calls was up around $2.60 each at the start of the week, and had a price tag of $1.70 a-pop on Wednesday. Plain-vanilla call buyers start making money if shares in Lockheed rise 3.9% over the current price of $77.79 to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $80.81 by expiration day next month. The overall reading of options implied volatility on LMT increased 14.1% to 23.53% by 11:55am.

KO - Coca-Cola Co. – The beverage manufacturer bubbled up on our scanners this morning after one strategist initiated a short strangle in long-dated Coke options. Shares in Coca-Cola Co. are…
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Bye Bye Buy List!

Oh, I have tried!

I have tried to be bullish, I have tried to get enthusiastic about this rally but I have been reviewing these picks for a few days and looking at the market, the charts, the sentiment, reading the news and studying the fundamentals and I'm OUT!  Oh, I'll be back, we'll set up a new, aggressive $100K Virtual Portfolio next week for some fun shorter-terrm plays (still keeping the conservative one for the full year) to take full advantage of this insanity but it's going to be mainly cash through the end of the month as I do not trust this rally one bit and it will be so nice to head into the easter holiday with lots of cash on the sidelines

We hit a perfect entry on Feb 8th, in our last round, and the market is up almost 9% since that day and I'm not expecting another 9% in the next 6 weeks so it's a very good time to take a break.  We were able to roll and enjoy these trades since Christmas and we will be revisiting some, maybe even keeping a few but, on the whole, I want to do what I often counsel members to do, which is follow our simple two-step process to maximizing your profits in a market rally:

  • Step 1) Take Money
  • Step 2) Run

There – isn't that simple?  Keep in mind that we LOVE all of these stocks so we'll be back in them if they go on sale and, perhaps, even if they don't and the market looks stronger through April earnings.  Meanwhile, keep in mind that these are 6-week profits so 20% is A LOT for generally conservative plays.  Not much else to talk about – let's just see how many of these suckers are worth keeping (noted in green):

AET (12/21 – $34.04, 1/9 – $32.70, 1/31 – $29.97, 3/18 – $33.24) They could not have done better for us, staying right in range and giving us 4 excellent sales but health care is passing this weekend and that's too wild for us to stick with.  Our last batch is right on target:

  • Apr $33 calls sold for $2.40, now .40 – up 83%
  • Apr $30 puts sold for $1.50, now .02 - up 99%
  • 2012 $25/35 bull call


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Wild Weekly Wrap Up – Only Halfway Through January!

Wheee, what a ride!

The week can be neatly summed up by my 1:35 comment to Members in yesterday's chat, summed the week up quite nicely as I said: "So funny, a whole week of gains I thought were ridiculous wiped out in 4 hours."  Of course it's easy to laugh when you play the market correctly – as I had said in the morning post, we had cashed out into Thursday's run up and planned on going bearish through the weekend but it turned out we got our sell-off early, jumping the $100K Virtual Portfolio, for example, up 12% in one day – enough to send us back to cash rather than risk a weekend reversal

We laid the groundwork for this little sell-off in last weekend's posts as we put up an aggressive Buy List for Members but in my regular weekend post we emphasized the need to cover our buys with "Disaster Hedges" as we were heading to the tops I had predicted when I published the "Last Charts of the Decade," where I set resistance target of Dow 10,457, S&P 1,135, Nasdaq 2,314, NYSE 7,389 and Russell 638.  As you can see, I pretty much hit them on the head, other than the Dow but that's because our year-old 5% rule calculations did not account for the change in the Dow that replaced C and GM with TRV and CVX, who added about 100 Dow points since their inclusion so we started using 10,549 this month and we'll make it 10,557 for today's chart, which makes perfect sense looking at this group (I added the Transports as they are fell right off our 2,000 target, giving us the early warning that things were not right):

As you can see, the 5% Rule rules!  I will apologize for being such a grump this week but the rally was really starting to annoy me as it was so blatantly forced up through our levels without a proper test that is was really getting me down about the markets.  I don't mind that the markets are manipulated, that's been going on since markets were invented – it's stupid and destructive manipulation that bothers me, the kind that, long term, destroys more investor confidence than it builds and squanders…
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The Buy List – Q1 2010 (Members Only)

 

Well we finally hit our levels!

Fundamentally, I still don't buy this rally but, technically, we could go up and up from here.  We discussed in chat yesterday how we may be in a pattern similar to 2003-7 where we came out of the dot com crash and 9/11, which took the market lower than it should have and then government stimulus took us higher than we should have been.  Sure it all ended badly but there was a really good ride up in between.  HOWERVER, 2004, which is about where we would be now, was a choppy and downtrending year.  That is not a problem for our buy/write strategy as long as we keep our heads and scale into our positions.

Obviously we can't rely on patterns to simply keep repeating themselves.  We could have another terrorist attack, we could have more stimulus or maybe both in our future but, until we see the patten broken, we can play for a similar move.  Our buy/write strategy is ideal for this as it's a conservative play that gives us 15-20% downside protection.  Combine this with our usual strategy to scale into positons along with some sensible disaster hedges and we can build a nice, bullish virtual portfolio for 2010.  Keep in mind we don't fear the upside with buy/writes as our "worst case" there is we get called away with a nice profit.  

I put up our latest Watch List on Dec 22nd, following through from our bullish lists of September 6thOctober 8th and Nov 24th.  These are the bullish plays that form the bulk of our virtual portfolios and that sometimes gets lost in our weekly short-term trading.  It was a lot like shooting fish in a barrel, picking winners since September (we had our last Buy List on July 11th our first since the bottom in March, which was followed by the more conservatively mixed $100K Virtual Portfolio that we used from April through July, when we were worried the market would be choppy (it was).  As always, our active lists are found under the Virtual Portfolio Tab near the top of our pages - always check there for recent updates.

We did…
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Bull and Bear Energy Views Played Out in XLE Options

Today’s tickers: XLE, PFE, FRE, GLD, DELL, WLP, LMT & FNM

XLE - Shares of the energy fund are up more than 1% to $52.92. We observed near-term bearishness and medium-term bullishness displayed through options on the ETF today. A ratio put spread initiated in the September contract indicates near-term pessimism by some traders. The transaction involved the purchase of 2,500 puts at the September 52 strike for 1.69 apiece spread against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower September 48 strike for 55 cents each. The net cost of the trade amounts to 59 cents and yields maximum potential profits to the downside of 3.41 if shares fall to $48.00 by expiration. Bullish sentiment was seen at the December 57 strike where 2,100 calls were coveted for 2.00 apiece. An 11.5% rally in shares to the breakeven price of $59.00 will allow this optimistic energy player to begin to amass profits by expiration in December. – Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF –

PFEA - Short straddle initiated in the pharmaceutical company’s January 2011 contract today suggests far-term bullish sentiment on the stock. Shares of PFE are currently higher by approximately 0.5% to $16.71. The straddle was enacted at the January 20 strike where 15,000 calls were shed for 1.12 apiece and 15,000 puts sold for 4.90 per contract. The gross premium on the transaction amounts to 6.02, and will be fully retained by the straddle-seller if shares settle at $20.00 by expiration. Over the next sixteen months shares must rally about 20% for the trader to bank the full 6.02 premium. If the stock fails to center at $20.00, the investor’s premium will erode down to zero if shares move sufficiently in either direction. Once the entire premium has evaporated, the trader will begin to accrue losses above the breakeven point to the upside at $26.02 or beneath the breakeven point to the downside at $13.98. We note that Pfizer has not traded above $20.00 since May 20, 2008. Nearer-term trades indicate that investors may be bracing for declines in the stock. The October 16 strike price had 4,100 puts picked up for 43 cents apiece while the higher December 17 strike had about 2,400 puts purchased at 1.34 per contract. – Pfizer, Inc. –

FRE - Investors were observed making bullish bets on Freddie today as shares soared higher than 30% at times to a maximum of $2.34. Shares are…
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Phil's Favorites

Brexit: how the end of Britain's empire led to rising inequality that helped Leave to victory

 

Brexit: how the end of Britain's empire led to rising inequality that helped Leave to victory

AC Arts Photography via Shutterstock

Courtesy of Danny Dorling, University of Oxford and Sal...



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Zero Hedge

World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.

Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relat...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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