Posts Tagged ‘low quality growth’

Is economic boom around the corner?

Edward presents both sides of argument regarding whether the "technical recovery" will lead to economic expansion, or not.  

Is economic boom around the corner?

bearsCourtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Back in February, I asked you if we were experiencing a recession or depression.  A plurality said it was a depression with a small ’d.’ I agreed and went on to explain why. Since then, things have changed and we seem to be on the verge of what I call a technical recovery (or a fake recovery – take your pick).  We may even be on the verge of a multi-year economic expansion – something bears like David Rosenberg should not rule out. But vigilance is still required. I will explain why.

Since the recovery talk has gathered steam, a lot of well-respected economists and policy makers have begun to construct what I consider a revisionist history of events. It goes something like this:

We have just experienced a major economic downturn. Coupled with a financial panic of major proportions, the global economy suffered a severe shock.  However, we have learnt how to deal with such crises due to our experiences during the Great Depression. The liquidity crisis was overcome through deft monetary policy. And fiscal expansionary policy aided a return to business as usual much sooner than many would have believed.

As a result, it is quite obvious we have been through a severe contraction, but nothing more than a garden-variety recession complicated – of course – by a financial panic. Back in February, a lot of economists made alarmist predictions of woe, foretelling a global Depression. This was wrong-headed and reckless as we see today. GDP has likely turned up in this third quarter and will continue rising for the foreseeable future. With the worst of things behind us, we can normalize monetary and fiscal policy and return to a more robust economic path.

On the surface, this narrative is compelling.  But, I believe it is based on a flawed analysis.  I would like to present a different narrative here for you to dissect.

GDP is a poor measure of growth

As Joseph Stiglitz recently wrote, GDP is a very poor measure of growth and economic health.  And he is right. There are many questions…
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Zero Hedge

Goldman Lost $500MM Trading Stocks In Q4 As It Quietly Sold Even More Billions In Equities

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While most analysts and traders were digging through Goldman's disappointing Q4 earnings report which missed on EPS and trading revenue, and focusing on the investment banking and markets (i.e., commission-based flow trading ) results as well as the ominous surge in expenses...

... which sent Goldman stock price plunging, for the second quarter in a row there was troubling disclosure in ...



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ValueWalk

Microsoft Gaming CEO: We're Confident In Timeline For Closing Activision Blizzard Deal

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI) CEO Bobby Kotick and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Gaming CEO Phil Spencer on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” (M-F 9AM – 11AM ET) today, Tuesday, January 18th. Following are links to video on CNBC.com:

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick: Metaverse Race Helped Prompt Microsoft Deal

Microsoft Gaming CEO:...

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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Growth Stocks Have COVID and Ivanhoff Lived

 

Momentum Monday – Growth Stocks Have COVID and Ivanhoff Lived

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Happy ‘markets closed’ Monday as we pay respects to Martin Luther King Jr.

Last week Ivanhoff had COVID, but the young scrappy man beat it.

We cannot say the same things about growth stocks which continue to struggle from the financial cocktail aftermath of it.

Here is this week’s episode of Momentum Monday. You can watch/listen right here or I have embedded it on my blog below:

Here a I...



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Politics

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



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Chart School

US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The short term US Dollar cycle peak is upon us, it is time for capital flows to rule the direction of the DXY.



Previous Post: US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near



Capital flows and interest rate differentials move currency around.



If capital flows take over, then they DXY is going into the 80's at least. Of course hiking rates 4 times is easier on the world when the DXY is near 80 rather than 95. A lot if US debt held by emerging markets is at risk otherwise. And yes a lower US dollar in early 2022 helps China out, as it suppo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Inflation About To Blast Off or Is The Peak In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Current data suggests that inflation has been in our everyday lives for several months. And today’s Producer Price Index data was pretty ugly.

BUT… could inflation be peaking?

Today’s chart 2-pack offers a glimpse of why inflation could subside over the near-term.

Here we look at the “monthly” chart of the US Dollar and Euro currencies. It’s pretty easy to see the rising trend channel for the US Dollar and falling trend channel for the Euro. As well, both currencies have formed a wedge pattern, with the US Dollar testing resistance and the Euro testing support.

Shou...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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