Posts Tagged ‘MS’

Unisys Earnings Surprise A Boon For Pre-Report Call Buyers

 

Today’s tickers: UIS, GPS & MS

UIS - Unisys Corp. – Higher-than-expected first-quarter profits reported by information technology services provider, Unisys Corp., on Tuesday sent shares in the name up sharply to the benefit of some pre-earnings report call buyers. Shares in Unisys, which had declined significantly this year, rose as much as 28.0% in the first half of the session to $20.98. Bullish positions initiated in the front month prior to the earnings release have in some cases more than tripled in value. Of note, the purchase of some 745 May $17 strike call options for a premium of $1.00 on Friday April 20th, are now deep in-the-money and trade at $3.80 apiece. Meanwhile, open interest in the May $18 strike calls suggests close to 300 contracts were picked up for a premium of $0.65 each yesterday afternoon. The spike in shares overnight now sees the $18 calls changing hands at a last-traded price of $2.95 per contract, a roughly 350% increase in premium. Options on Unisys Corp. are far more active than usual overall today with some 5,350 contracts in play this afternoon versus the 90-day average options volume of 506 contracts on the stock. Traders are focusing their efforts in UIS calls, exchanging roughly 3.7 calls for each single put option traded.

GPS - Gap, Inc. – Shares in the apparel and accessories retailer are up 1.6% at $27.63 this morning, just off Friday’s fresh 52-week high of $27.95. The stock has soared in 2012, rising nearly 50.0% year-to-date. But, a large bear put spread initiated in the front month a couple of minutes into the trading day suggests one strategist is prepared should shares slip in the near term. Gap is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 17th after the close. The trader…
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Very Good Friday – Wrapping up a Great Week (for the Bears)

NOW things are getting interesting!

Who wants a market that goes up and up and up – where's the sport?  Even the Nasdaq finally blew it's 15-week winning streak and that helped us decide to stay pretty bearish going into yesterday's close.  This morning we went over the news and the week's data to position ourselves for the Futures and my conclusion to Members in our special 4:03 am Alert was:  

Next week we get the BBook, PPI and CPI but the focus will be on earnings and AA is not likely to get us off to a good start so I simply don't see anything in particular to be bullish about at the moment. 

The point I had been making (with many charts and graphs) was that it didn't matter if we added even 250,000 jobs – it still isn't enough to begin to fill in the hole in any meaningful way and, even more important, the QUALITY of jobs we have been adding is TERRIBLE!  

It doesn't matter if you give everyone a job if they are only minimum wage jobs.  We need our consumers to have an income to spend and aside from inflation (real inflation, not the Fed's BS numbers) eating into their buying power, when someone loses a $50,000 job and replaces it with a $35,000 job – that's NOT an improving economy – not for the long run, anyway.  

Of course the stock market will like it, at first – as lower wages paid for the same job = greater Corporate Profits but that only works as long as there are people outside your country who have money to buy your goods

As we noted just yesterday with the Retail Reports, the high-end stores are doing very well as the top 10% is doing well but those serving the bottom 90% are struggling because, clearly, these people are running out of money.  While the market has been content to "ignore and soar" during this gathering storm, now we begin to see the…
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Top 1% Tuesday – $105,637 for Me, $80 for You!

Wheeeeeee – isn't this economy FANTASTIC?

It sure is for those of us in the top 1% (1.4M) - people earning over $352,000 in annual income.  We made $105,637 more Dollars in 2010 than we did in 2009 – thanks in large part to the Fed's fantastic policy of printing more and more money, which lets us borrow cheaply or invest with leverage in inflating equity as the Dollar collapses.  Sure the Dollar collapsing hurts everyone – but an extra $105,637 keeps us ahead of inflation, right? 

I'm stil jealous of course (good Capitalists are always jealous), as the top .01% (14,000 of us) – who earn an average of $23.8M, were able to add another $4.2M to their annual incomes in 2010.  That's 52,500 TIMES the average $80 increase earned by the bottom 99% (thank goodness we're not one of THEM!).  That's right, somehow, the riff-raff in the bottom 99% managed to grab 7% of the Nation's total increase in income – clearly Congress needs to make immediate changes to prevent this travesty from happening again! 

Steve Rattner has a different opinion, saying:  "The only way to redress the income imbalance is by implementing policies that are oriented toward reversing the forces that caused it. That means letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the wealthy and adding money to some of the programs that House Republicans seek to cut. Allowing this disparity to continue is both bad economic policy and bad social policy. We owe those at the bottom a fairer shot at moving up."

That's Commie talk!  If we allow the bottom 99% to make a fair share of the money, they would make 5% more and you know they would only SPEND it on stuff they need TO LIVE.  Then our companies would have to provide more goods and services to the bottom 99% and jobs would be created and we, at the top, would have to WAIT for the money to trickle UP from the bottom as only companies that do a good job servicing the bottom 99% would increase in value.  Even worse, we may have to WORK (a four-letter word) to provide goods and services for the people who have money in order to EARN (another four-letter word) our Incomes.  That's no fun for us at all! 

We like it when we get ALL the money and we create just the jobs we choose by buying really…
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Amazon.com Calls Draw A Crowd As Shares Rise

 

Today’s tickers: AMZN, XLK, & MS

AMZN - Amazon.com, Inc. – Shares in the online retailer are up the most in the Nasdaq 100, trading 1.5% higher this afternoon at $195.20. Options traders expecting the bullish momentum to continue in the near term appear to be accumulating weekly call options. Weekly volume is heaviest at the Mar. ’30 $200 strike, where more than 4,300 contracts changed hands against open interest of 1,271 positions. Trading patterns reveal a roughly even mix of buying and selling. Fresh interest in the Mar. $205 strike call, however, is mostly driven by buyers. Traders positioning for shares to post big gains next week purchased the majority of some 3,500 calls in play at the $205 strike at an average premium of $0.72 each. Buyers of these contracts profit at expiration as long as Amazon’s shares rally another 5.4% to exceed the average breakeven price of $205.72. Bullish call buying extended up to the $210 weekly calls, as well, with roughly 650 contracts purchased for $0.31 a-pop. Overall options volume of 84,300 lots stands just below the AMZN’s 90-day average options volume of 87,480 lots. More than 2.5 calls are changing hands on the stock for each single put in play on the final trading session of the week.

XLK - Technology Select Sector SPDR – Options on the Tech ETF are among the most active today, with more than 114,000 contracts in play as of 12:15 p.m. in New York trade. Almost all of the options traded on the XLK are puts that appear to be tied up in a strategy that yields maximum gains in the event of a more than 6.0% pullback in the price of the underlying by April expiration. Shares in the XLK are currently off 0.25% to stand…
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J.M. Smucker Co. Calls In Demand Despite Earnings Jam

 

Today’s tickers: SJM, MS & NILE

SJM - J.M. Smucker Co. – Shares in the maker of branded food products fell as much as 9.8% to $70.50 today after third-quarter earnings missed expectations and the Company cut its full-year earnings estimate. The sharp correction in the shares may be temporary, by the looks of trades placed in J.M. Smucker Co. options straight out of the gate this morning. Investors snapped up calls across several expiries, perhaps taking advantage of deeply discounted premiums on the contracts in the view that shares may rebound. March expiry call buyers targeted the $75 strike, buying around 280 lots for an average premium of $0.60 each. Traders long the calls may profit at expiration next month if shares in the peanut butter producer rally 6.5% over the current traded price of $71.00 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $75.60. Same-strike price calls in the April contract were purchased 200 times at an average premium of $1.10 apiece, positioning buyers to profit above a breakeven share price of $76.10. Meanwhile, third-quarter results and the revision to full-year guidance seem to have sparked concern in other strategists buying SJM puts. Traders positioning for shares to extend losses purchased around 150 of the Mar. $65 strike puts at a premium of $0.41 each, and picked up around 220 July $70 strike put options at an average premium of $3.50 per contract.

MS - Morgan Stanley – It looks like some Morgan Stanley options players paid heftier premiums than necessary for downside puts this morning. Reports that Moody’s may cut its rating on MS by up to three notches sent shares in the financial services firm down as much as 4.0% to $18.20, sparking demand for downside protection. The shaky start to the trading day was…
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Thursday Foolishness – More of the Same with One Trade

Our day is done, how’s yours?  

That’s right, we already did our 3am trade where we caught the dead top of oil (and the dead bottom of the Dollar), where my 2:59 am comment to Members in Chat was:  

 

Dollar at session low of 80.40 at 3am and oil back at yesterday’s high at $103.70 so oil (/CL) makes a nice short below $103.75 here but DANGEROUS pre-market trading as Iran could spout off at any moment and the trading is VERY THIN.  

So that brings us back to the good old Dow (/YM) futures at 12,350 and they are just over that line at 12,351 but that’s the short of the moment as long as the Dollar is over 80.40 .

For the next hour, I did a blow by blow on the oil trade in Member Chat on the way down to $102.70 – a nice $1,000 per contract worm gotten by the early birds, where we took the money and ran ahead of likely morning manipulation back up to $103.50, where we can short it again on inventories (11am).  The Dow slipped to 12,300 and paid a solid $250 per contract as well, paying for over 100 Egg Mcmuffins this morning by itself.  If you want to see how we make decisions along the way down – it’s well worth going over this morning’s comments – there was also some good discussion of other topics this morning, including my pick for the best wide-screen TV.  

We’re still just messing around with hit and run plays, waiting to see how the week pans out and next week we’ll be waiting to see how earnings pan out as well as what we expect will be a pretty major market pullback leading into the 10-year auctions next Wednesday at 1pm.  Clearly the Fed freaked out and jumped in yesterday when TLT hit $118 so we are fairly comfortable with…
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Super Tuesday Committee Failure – So What?

The Super-Committee is dead

Long live the Debt!  In case you are voting in the next election – here are 12 people to get rid of.  Much as I may blame one party over another for this failure, they all deserve what's coming to them for A) Pretending they were going to accomplish something and B) For not now getting up and making very strong statements denouncing the corruption in politics that make it impossible for Congress to do the Nation's business anymore.  

In case you happen to be a Fox News viewer, I will try to keep this VERY simple because, as it turns out, we now have definitive studies that prove Fox News MAKES YOU STUPID.  Of course, it is possible that only stupid people watch Fox News but I know many people who think they are smart and watch Fox News so I have to blame Fox News here as do researchers at Farleigh Dickenson University who found "The results show us that there is something about watching Fox News that leads people to do worse on these questions than those who don’t watch any news at all."   As I can tell you from raising my own children to be good citizens:  

The biggest aid to answering correctly is The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, which leads to a 6-point decrease in identifying the protesters as Republicans, and a 12-point increase in the likelihood of giving the correct answer. "Jon Stewart has not spent a lot of time on some of these issues," said Cassino. "But the results show that when he does talk about something, his viewers pick up a lot more information than they would from other news sources."

Watching Fox News, by the way, led to an 18-point disadvantage (out of 53% of all respondents) in being able to answer questions like "Were Egyptians successful in overthrowing Hosni Mubarak" or "Has the Syrian uprising been successful" but that was a Fox viewer's area of expertise compared to having a clue of what is going on in American politics other than "Obama sucks."  Tied with Daily show viewers for best informed were NPR supporters but, sadly, only
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Testy Tuesday – 1,072 or Bounce!

SPY DAILYHas it been a week already? 

That’s right – last Tuesday our title, after 3 bullish days, was "S&P 1,200 or Bust (again)" and bust we did!  At the time I said "It’s not that I’m flip-flopping – we’re simply playing the range and if the trip from the bottom to the top of the range is just 2 days – then flip-flop we must!"  Our bearish hedge in that morning’s Alert to Members was 30 DXD Oct $18/20 bull call spread at .70 ($2,100) offset by the sale of 10 GE Jan $15 puts at $1.05 ($1,050).  DXD is already at $21.34 and the bull call spread is $1.30 (30 = $3,900) while the 10 GE short puts are $1.75 ($1,750) for a net $2,150, up 105% in the first week – even if the short puts were not stopped out with a smaller loss.  

We also ran our Long Put List that morning (see Weekend Reading for recap of that strategy and list of short trade ideas) and those, of course, are up huge across the board as things got so bad yesterday we even had to short IBM – our list’s last brave holdout.  Another fun short we played that day was a ratio backspread on CMG.  

Taking advantage of selling into the pre-earnings excitement, we were able to add the following trade to our virtual $25,000 Portfolio:  

Earnings are on the 20th, the day before expirations so I like the volatility crush of selling 5 $340 calls for $9 ($4,500) and buying 3 Dec $350s for $15 ($4,500) for a free spread.  No matter what CMG does, $4,500 of premium will be gone from the callers on Oct 21st, then the Nov whatevers can be sold, hopefully for another $4,500 in premium or perhaps we can just pull the trade so let’s do one set in the $25KP and see how it goes. 

EEM WEEKLYCMG took a nice dip since then (now $292) and the 5 Oct $340 calls fell to $2.20 ($1,100) but the 3 Dec $350s have held $8.60 ($2,580) for a net profit of $1,480 off a trade that cost no cash just 7 days ago.  These are the kinds of trades we love around earnings season.  We didn’t need to hold it for a month and now we can free up the margin (about…
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Which Way Wednesday: Durable Goods and The Bernank

SPY DAILY Strap in for another wild one!  

We fixed our targets yesterday morning, in the main post, at Dow 11,300, S&P 1,200, Nas 2,575, NYSE 7,100 and Russell 685 and, at 10:46 in Member Chat, my comment was: "Past 10:30 without breaking 10,300 and the Dollar over 78.20 so over 78.25 is a good reason to tap the DXD hedge or grab the DIA FRIDAY $111 puts, now .98 so let’s watch that VERY CAREFULLY although it could just be a bit of profit taking into the EU close with the DAX up 12% since Friday morning. A pullback to 10% (from the DAX 5,000 bottom) is very much expected here and EWG naked calls can come off the table for now until they prove they can break $20."

We ended up holding that 10,300 line through the afternoon but we finally broke down at 3:07 and we stuck to the plan but my adjustment on the trade idea for Members in chat was: "Game on for the DIA puts but now we can pick up the $112 puts for $1.10 – 10 in the $25KP with a stop at .90 in case we dive into the close."

Those puts came off the table at $1.65 into the close, up 43% in less than an hour and even the original idea of the $111 puts topped out at $1.40 for a nice 43% gain on the day (but those took 6 hours, so not as good an annualized rate of return!).  As I noted to Members in this morning’s Alert – these are the kinds of quick adjustments we can make to re-balance our portfolios on the fly in a choppy market.  

We don’t want to let ourselves be chased in and out of short-term positions by these silly market fluctuations so we make quick adjustments with even shorter-term momentum plays that help us ride out these little moves.  As I said to our Members during the afternoon drop "I’m not changing my stance because Meredith Whitney told me to."  That was at 3:48 when people were asking if we should panic out of our bullish positions on FAS and other trades.  At 3:29 I had already pointed out:  "Also Whitney was no help – same BS as usual when they want to halt a rally. Next we hear from Roubini, Gross and El-Erian."

That
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Long-Dated Options Appear Rosy At JPM, Gloomy On MS

Today’s tickers: JPM, MS & DF

JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – A couple of options strategists appear to have exchanged sizeable blocks of long-dated calls and puts on JPMorgan this morning to position for shares in the name to rebound, or to at least hold, above recent multi-year lows. Shares in JPM came up for air today, rising 0.70% to $29.48 by 11:55 am in New York, following steep declines earlier in the week. The stock has tumbled nearly 40% since the first full week of April. One investor positioning for shares in JPM to at least hold above $29.00 come March 2012 expiration, sold some 7,000 puts at the Mar. 2012 $29 strike to pocket premium of $4.20 per contract. The investor may walk away with the hefty premium received on the sale of the time-rich, closest-to-the-money put options, as long as shares in JPM exceed $29.00 at expiration next year. The large short put position indicates the trader could wind up having 700,000 shares of the underlying stock put to him at an effective price of $24.80 each – after factoring in options premium – should the put contracts land in-the-money at expiration.

Meanwhile, a large stake in Mar. 2012 call options benefits the owner if JPM’s shares take off running to the upside within the next six months to expiration. It looks like one investor snapped up 5,000 calls at the Mar. 2012 $38 strike for a premium of $0.85 each within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell this morning. The call buyer profits at expiration if shares in JPMorgan Chase & Co. jump 31.8% over the current price of $29.48 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $38.85. But, the investor need not wait until expiration to potentially rake in profits…
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Zero Hedge

It's D-Day For The Repo Market: On Monday $100 Billion In Liquidity Will Be Drained - What Happens Next?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week's apocalyptic report by repo market guru Zoltan Pozsar, which for those who missed it predicted that an imminent market crash and loss of control of overnight rates by the Fed would spark nothing short of QE4, sparked an unprecedented panic at the Federal Reserve, which just two ...



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Phil's Favorites

Litigation is the real reason financial reports are becoming harder to read

 

Litigation is the real reason financial reports are becoming harder to read

Courtesy of Mark Humphery-Jenner, UNSW

Westpac can expect a bumper turnout of shareholders at its annual general meeting in Sydney on Thursday, many of them angry at its alleged role in facilitating child exploitation in the Philippines, its 23 million alleged breaches of anti-money-laundering laws, and its initial ritualistic response to the allegations.

This included donating A$18 million to an anti sexual exploitation charity, followed by the ...



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Chart School

Funds are getting ready to move out of USA

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Just before the hang over in the US equity markets, money will move and take their well earned gains else where. Here is why.

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Charts in video.

US is in the late cycle boom.

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US stock market with the US dollar, they have risen together from 2012. A change of this will force money to move.


Cli...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Euro Breakout In Play? Gold Bulls Sure Hope So!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Euro has spent much of the past 2 years trading in a down-trend.

Though precious metals like Gold have fared well, this has been a bit of a headwind because it means that the US Dollar has remained firm.

Big Test In Play for the Euro

The Euro is testing a confluence of important support just as the downtrend is narrowing and ready for a “break”. That support includes lower falling wedge support and the Euro’s long term up-trend support line (see points 1 and 2).

If the Euro can succeed in breaking out at (3), it would be bullis...



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Insider Scoop

8 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) stock surged 36.4% to $137.00 during Friday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $6.1 billion. The most recent rating by Janney Capital, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $175.00.
  • GlaxoSmithKline, Inc. (NYSE: GSK) shares surged 1.1% to $46.44. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $112.9 billion. According to the most recent rating by UBS, on November 21, the current rating is at Buy.
  • AstraZeneca, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

For decades, Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? How did it gain so much influence? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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