Posts Tagged ‘Options’

Watch Phil on Money Talk on BNN (where available)! Tonight at 7pm EST!

The replay will be available on their website after the showing tonight. I'll also post up a link to the replay as soon as it's available!


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Time is running out! Join us in Vegas!

Welcome to Las Vegas!

Join us for the PSW Conference where you'll learn:

  • To BE THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler!!!  
  • How to critically analyze today's markets and economy
  • What strategies to apply to the current market conditions
  • When to hold your trades and when to fix them for bigger gains
  • How to use futures to leverage portfolio returns
  • How to incorporate fundamental analysis for long-term wins
  • The investing trends that will matter next year
  • Our top stock picks for 2015!!!

 

Highlights include:

  • Meet our members and authors at our Annual Nobu Dinner on Saturday (optional)
  • Try to beat Phil in our Poker Tournament (Saturday, optional)
  • Live Education Session Sunday, Nov 9th, 10am – 4pm (Brunch provided.)
  • Dinner at Rao's on Sunday night (optional)
  • Live Market Session Monday, Nov 10th, 6am – 1pm (Breakfast provided.)

 

We're getting special room rates for the Nobu Tower at Caesar's Palace and for Bally's Hotel and Casino as well. (We will send you special reservation information when you register.)

 

Nobu Hotel King RoomRoom Rates are:

  • 5-Star Nobu Hotel (in Caesar's Palace) - Deluxe King room - Saturday and Sunday – just $239/night
  • Bally's (across the street from Caesar's) – Saturday and Sunday – $99/night

 

(For those of your planning to stay longer, either before or after the conference, they're extending a special rate for us for weekdays as well. As it fluctuates with their availability, we don't have a solid price, but it expected to be around $159/night at the Nobu Tower.)

 

Price for BOTH days of the Seminar are: $699 (12 left at this rate):

 

SIGN UP to Join Us HERE!

 

 

 


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There’s still time to JOIN US in LAS VEGAS!

Welcome to Las Vegas!

Join us for the PSW Conference where you'll learn:

  • To BE THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler!!!  
  • How to critically analyze today's markets and economy
  • What strategies to apply to the current market conditions
  • When to hold your trades and when to fix them for bigger gains
  • How to use futures to leverage portfolio returns
  • How to incorporate fundamental analysis for long-term wins
  • The investing trends that will matter next year
  • Our top stock picks for 2015

 

Highlights include:

  • Meet our members and authors at our Annual Nobu Dinner on Saturday (optional)
  • Try to beat Phil in our Poker Tournament (Saturday, optional)
  • Live Education Session Sunday, Nov 9th, 10am – 4pm (Brunch provided.)
  • Live Market Session Monday, Nov 10th, 6am – 1pm (Breakfast provided.)

 

We're getting special room rates for the Nobu Tower at Caesar's Palace and for Bally's Hotel and Casino as well. (We will send you special reservation information when you register.)

 

Nobu Hotel King RoomRoom Rates are:

  • 5-Star Nobu Hotel (in Caesar's Palace) - Deluxe King room - Saturday and Sunday – just $239/night
  • Bally's (across the street from Caesar's) – Saturday and Sunday – $99/night

 

(For those of your planning to stay longer, either before or after the conference, they're extending a special rate for us for weekdays as well. As it fluctuates with their availability, we don't have a solid price, but it expected to be around $159/night at the Nobu Tower.)

 

Price for BOTH days of the Seminar are: $699 (15 left at this rate):

 

SIGN UP to Join Us HERE!

 

 

 


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Wednesday Worries – Putin Puts Pressure on Ukraine

 photo putin_zps43535164.gifNow what?  

Well, same old, same old really.  As the US and Europe ratchet up the sanctions, Putin has ordered "retaliatory measures" of an unspecified nature and has massed more troops along the Ukraine boarder:

"Political tools of economic pressure are unacceptable, they contradict all norms and rules," he said. "In that connection, the government of Russia has already proposed a series of retaliatory measures against the so-called sanctions of certain countries. I think that in current conditions, with the goal of protecting the interests of domestic producers, we could certainly think about that." he added.

SPY 5 MINUTEIn recent days, Russian regulators have banned shipments of some European fruits and vegetables and raised questions about the safety of products from MCD in Russia, threatening to ban their sale. Officials deny any political motivation for those moves.  wink  

Russia's Vedomosti newspaper reported Tuesday that the government was considering a partial or total ban on overflights of Siberia by European airlines, which use the route to shorten trips from Europe to Asia.  

European markets are already suffering with Italy dropping 2.9% this morning on news that it has officially slipped back into a Recession with GDP falling 0.2% in Q2 – a far cry from the +0.2% predicted by leading economorons.  The IMF has cut their optimistic growth estimate for Italy to 0.3% in 2014 and dropped Spain to 1.3%.  Spanish markets are down 2% today as well.  

We decided this was a good time to buy this morning and, at 6:58 this morning, I put up this chart for Members in our Live Chat Room, saying:

Check this out – all hitting the S1 lines so far:

It's certainly worth playing for a small bounce at


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$1,000 Friday – Yesterday’s Oil Trade Gives Everyone a Great Weekend!

Congratulations!  

If you read yesterday's post and took action on our trade idea to short Oil Futures (/CL) at the $103 line, then you were able to pocket $1,000 PER CONTRACT in just 3 hours.  In the Morning post (delivered to our Members via Email at 8:35 am), the trade idea was:

"We're still shorting Oil (/CL) Futures at that $103 line and we hit it again this morning and, hopefully, we'll get a nice pullback around 10:30 – after the natural gas report shows a nice build."

That's about on par for our Futures trading as we demonstrated LIVE in Tuesday's Live Trading Webinar $300 of Futures profits in less than an hour (replay available here).  We'll be doing more Futures Webinars for our Members aside from our usual Tuesday Live Trading Webcasts (sign up for your Membership here so you don't miss our trade ideas).  

How to trade the Futures is one of the many things we learn at Philstockworld – another thing is PATIENCE!  Patience has kept us from chasing this rally as we once again top out the market.  On Tuesday we took a nice, speculative bullish trade (but did not officially add it to our Portfolios) - just in case we do have a breakout – but, otherwise, we've been working on our downside protection. 

We are FUNDAMENTAL traders who just so happen to use Options and Futures for leverage and hedging – simply because they are convenient and profitable instruments when used correctly.  What we teach is not all that complicated – but it isn't easy either.  That's why not many people trade Options and Futures – it requires discipline and takes time and practice to master – not really the kind of thing our education system prepares our students for these days….

YOU, however, should not be intimidated away from making money.  Our basic concepts are VERY SIMPLE and the concepts are explained in quick videos like "How To Buy a Stock for a 15-20% Discount" and "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns" – something we are demonstrating this year in the 5 Virtual Portfolios we track for our Members.  

Back on December 7th, for…
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Phuket Friday – Carnival of Madness

It’s party time! 

A lot of investors have been saying "Phuket" lately and they can only be referring to the annual Patong Carnival in Thailand, where the tourist bureau wants you to know the tuberculosis outbreak is "under control."  Actually, it’s an amazingly beautiful place with great people – must be why so many people keep mentioning it when starting at the markets this week

As I mentioned yesterday, we had to flip bullish because our bearish bets were no fun and we felt that A) the bottom was a little forced in order for Timmy to peddle his T-Bills and B) that Santa Clause is coming to town.  Actually, we had plenty of bearish bets from when the market was high so we needed the bullish bets to get BALANCE!  

Balance was the theme of our virtual White Christmas Portfolio and we added another $3,615 in gains over the past two weeks to bring us very close to a triple at $42,925 off our $15,000 start back on November 21st.  This is a very aggressive virtual portfolio where we are practicing the art of hit and run trading.  The positions we closed in the last 9 sessions were bullish bets with FAS, XLF, FAS, DIA, GLD, XLF, FAS and XLF and bearish bets with GLL, TZA, FAS (spread), USO, DIA, TZA, DIA, DIA, DIA, DXD.  See – BALANCE!  

We thought the market would go up and down (I know, such a stretch!) and the markets did, in fact go up AND down with an AVERAGE swing of 1.5% PER DAY but, in the end, we’re still consolidating around our Must Hold lines and right back where we were at the last options expiration day of November 18th – causing almost all puts and calls sold to sucker a month ago to expire worthless.  Isn’t it a funny coincidence how all that seems to work out for the Banksters?  

As I reminded our Members, our cynical motto at PSW is "We don’t care IF the game is fixed, as long as we can figure out HOW the game is fixed and place our bets accordingly."

I don’t know how many times I need to tell you oil is a scam before you’ll believe me but it was way back on June first, when I laid out our plan to break the
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Stock World Weekly

Here’s the latest Stock World Weekly Newsletter, New Year’s Edition.

Feedback welcome — please leave comments, we value your input. - Ilene

BEN DEVIL

Picture credit: William Banzai7


For Stock World Weekly archives, click here.   


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One More Cup of Coffee Addendum

One More Cup of Coffee Addendum

By Scott Brown at SabrientIlene at Phil’s Stock World, and special thanks to Sam Antar

Last night, we decided to replace the short in JOE, covered yesterday, with a short in GMCR for the DHH virtual portfolio.  We noted:

There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company’s prospects or valuation. However, when a week after the last insider sale, the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company’s methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look more dark and mysterious. It is worth noting that Keurig accounted for over half of GMCR revenue last year, so when the President of Keurig is selling, it is worth a further look. When the SEC discloses an inquiry into the companies accounting it is worth more than a look. Multiple class-action lawsuits have been filed against GMCR since the announcement by the SEC, yet the stock has rebounded from a low of $26.87 to a close today of $31.31.  Rumors of Nestle having interest in GMCR resurfaced on October 12, despite the SEC’s inquiry and pending class-action lawsuits.

To further examine our initial observation, we took a guided tour though the SEC filings, with Sam Antar, who specializes in reviewing SEC filings. The first thing we discovered on the SEC site was that the last date Michelle Stacy exercised 5000 options and then sold the stock for $37 was September 21, 2010.  This transaction was reported in a Form 4 filing on Sept. 23, 2010. 

Next, we looked at the most recent 8K Form filed and we found that the disclosure of the SEC inquiry occurred on September 28, 2010. However, notification of the SEC inquiry occurred eight days earlier, on September 20, 2010: 

On September 20, 2010, the staff of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement informed the Company that it was conducting an inquiry and made a request for a voluntary production of documents and information. Based on the request, the Company believes the focus of the inquiry concerns certain revenue recognition practices and the Company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors. The Company, at the direction of the audit committee of the Company’s board of directors, is cooperating fully with the SEC staff’s inquiry. 

This information…
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One More Cup of Coffee Addendum

One More Cup of Coffee Addendum

By Scott Brown at SabrientIlene at Phil’s Stock World, and special thanks to Sam Antar

Last night, we decided to replace the short in JOE, covered yesterday, with a short in GMCR for the DHH virtual portfolio.  We noted:

There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company’s prospects or valuation. However, when a week after the last insider sale, the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company’s methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look more dark and mysterious. It is worth noting that Keurig accounted for over half of GMCR revenue last year, so when the President of Keurig is selling, it is worth a further look. When the SEC discloses an inquiry into the companies accounting it is worth more than a look. Multiple class-action lawsuits have been filed against GMCR since the announcement by the SEC, yet the stock has rebounded from a low of $26.87 to a close today of $31.31.  Rumors of Nestle having interest in GMCR resurfaced on October 12, despite the SEC’s inquiry and pending class-action lawsuits.

To further examine our initial observation, we took a guided tour though the SEC filings, with Sam Antar, who specializes in reviewing SEC filings. The first thing we discovered on the SEC site was that the last date Michelle Stacy exercised 5000 options and then sold the stock for $37 was September 21, 2010.  This transaction was reported in a Form 4 filing on Sept. 23, 2010. 

Next, we looked at the most recent 8K Form filed and we found that the disclosure of the SEC inquiry occurred on September 28, 2010. However, notification of the SEC inquiry occurred eight days earlier, on September 20, 2010: 

On September 20, 2010, the staff of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement informed the Company that it was conducting an inquiry and made a request for a voluntary production of documents and information. Based on the request, the Company believes the focus of the inquiry concerns certain revenue recognition practices and the Company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors. The Company, at the direction of the audit committee of the Company’s board of directors, is cooperating fully with the SEC staff’s inquiry. 

This information…
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The Big Boys Discover Options

The Big Boys Discover Options

By STEVEN M. SEARS at Barrons 

Other institutions follow Pimco in using puts and calls to battle stock-market risk. Global volatility leads to less reliance on modern portfolio theory.

IN THE RAREFIED WORLD OF endowments, pension funds and major asset- management companies, worries about risk are often quashed by modern portfolio theory.

The Nobel Prize-winning concept essentially contends that asset diversification alone is enough to reduce risk. Options, though designed for that very purpose, are historically viewed as an inelegant solution.

But the old biases could be fading, according to a study released last week by the Options Industry Council, an educational marketing group primarily funded by the options exchanges.

THE GYRATIONS in the global financial market seem to have upturned longstanding ideas in the investment community, including those about owning a variety of stocks or bonds to reduce investment risk. Even now, correlation is damaging many portfolios as different assets, including some stocks and bonds, increasingly trade like each other.

The OIC study suggests that the financial crisis has made endowments, pension funds and major asset managers more open to using options to reduce portfolio risk. This is a significant development. The common experience for derivatives salesmen traveling to Boston and other bastions of the money-management industry, is to be viewed by portfolio managers as people with two heads and one eye, trying to peddle exotic financial detritus.

Continue here >


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Phil's Favorites

QOTD: Grantham says Oil is Dead

 

QOTD: Grantham says Oil is Dead

Courtesy of 

Jeremy Grantham (GMO) is one of the most admired institutional investors and thinkers in the world, and with good reason. He is also a passionate environmentalist who has put himself at risk of arrest for taking part in various civil disobedience demonstrations and protests over the years. The 79 year old investor gave the keynote presentation at last week’s Morningstar Investment Conference and he chose to make the case for why ESG [environmental, social and governance] inv...



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Zero Hedge

Are You Prepared To Invest In Troubled Times?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Market "fixes" fuel wealth/income inequality which feeds political and social instability.

There are two Grand Narratives about the U.S. economy and asset markets: the mainstream narrative is that nothing is fundamentally wrong with the economy, and so no structural changes (and the sacrifices such changes entail) are needed.

In this narrative, the only problem that needs solving is ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Collapse Resumes After Japan's Largest Exchange Halts Account Creation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

What started off as a hopeful week of broadening user adoption is ending on a sour note as Japan's chief regulator launched a probe of crypto-exchanges, prompting the largest to halt account creation sending the entire crypto space lower...

As CNBC reports, the order...



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Insider Scoop

Booking Holdings Is Playing Catch-Up In Online Travel Growth Areas, Analyst Says In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For June 22, 2018 Booking Holdings CEO Has Some Winning Travel Tips For ...

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Chart School

Large Caps Feel the Heat as Semiconductors Struggle

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday, Small Caps led the rally as Large Caps lost ground. Today, those same weak Large Caps took another hit and dragged Tech indices with them.  Small Caps also suffered but they have plenty of wiggle room before they hit trouble.

The Dow sell-off didn't stop at its 50-day MA and is now on course to test its 200-day MA. Technicals, aside from Stochastics, are bearish.


Of greater concern was the hit to the Semiconductor Index. The attempt to hold 1,393 support was swiftly ...

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Biotech

Opioids don't have to be addictive - the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opioids don't have to be addictive – the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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