Posts Tagged ‘oversupply of money’

A Tsunami of Red Ink

A Tsunami of Red Ink

red inkCourtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon

Just over a week ago, Bloomberg revealed in "Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis," that the U.S. Treasury Secretary did not appear to be overly concerned about the threat posed by brewing problems in the commercial property sector:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said commercial real estate woes won’t set off a new banking crisis, in remarks to the Economic Club of Chicago.

“I don’t think so,” Geithner said, when asked whether commercial real estate could set off another banking meltdown. “That’s a problem the economy can manage through even though it’s going to be still exceptionally difficult.”

The global economy has accelerated since the worst of the recession and banking crisis last year, Geithner said, noting a U.S. Commerce Department report today showing the economy expanded 3.5 percent in the third quarter.

“You can say now with confidence that the financial system is stable, the economy is stabilized,” Geithner said. “You can see the first signs of growth here and around the world.”

Is he serious? All you have to do is spend about 15 minutes reading through just a few of the reports that were published recently and it quickly becomes apparent that a tsunami of red ink is forming in the sector, ready to come crashing down on the whole of the banking sector — as well as the economy — in the immediate period ahead:

"Why This Real Estate Bust Is Different" (BusinessWeek)

Unrealistic assumptions, layers of investors, sky-high prices, and possible fraud will make it hard to clean up the mess in commercial real estate

When Goldman Sachs (GS) sold complex bonds backed by the Arizona Grand Resort and other commercial properties in 2006, it suggested the returns would be strong. The 164-acre luxury Arizona Grand, set against the Sonoran Desert in Phoenix, boasted an award-winning golf course, deluxe spa, and several swank restaurants. The on-site water park was named one of the best in the country by the Travel Channel. With the resort’s new owners planning to refurbish hotel rooms and common areas, Goldman told investors that the renovations would help boost cash flow.

As was so often the case during the real estate boom, the lofty projections didn’t pan out. When the economy softened and business travel


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Rogue science strikes again: The case of the first gene-edited babies

 

Rogue science strikes again: The case of the first gene-edited babies

Chinese scientists led by He Jiankui claimed they used CRISPR to modify human embryos that eventually were born as twin girls. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

Courtesy of G. Owen Schaefer, National University of Singapore

The idea of scientists tinkering with the genes of babies was once the provenance of science fiction, but now it’s apparently entered the realm of reality: On Nov. 26, Chinese scientist He Jiankui reported the historic live births of ...



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Zero Hedge

Plastic Apocalypse: Dangerous Microplastics Invade Alps To Artic, Found In Fresh Snow

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

A new study has revealed that high levels of microplastics have been detected in some of the most remote regions of the world.

The discovery, published in the journal Science Advances, is the first international study on microplastics in snow, conducted by the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany.

Melanie Bergmann, the lead scientist, and her team of researchers found microplastics from the Alps to the Arctic contained high levels of the plastic fragment, raises questions about the environmental and health implications of potential exposure to airborne plastics....



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Insider Scoop

Heavy Volume Drives Low-Float Stock Plus Therapeutics Up 200%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Plus Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: PSTV) is the latest and one of the most extreme recent examples of the powerful combination of low float and heavy trading volume.

Plus shares traded higher by more than 215% on Friday. The biotech stock more than tripled after the company reported ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Long Term Stock Market Chart Perspective

Courtesy of Lee Adler

After a big day like yesterday, I like to get a little long term stock market chart perspective. (Yes, this stilted verbiage is for search engine optimization ).

We do that with a monthly bar chart, which I update when relevant in Lee Adler’s Technical Trader. That’s in addition to the regular daily bar/cycle charts covering the past year, and a weekly cycle chart covering the past 4 years.

I wrote on July 14, in reference to the price and indicator patterns on the weekly chart:

The market has overshot a 3-4 year cycle projection in terms of both price and time. There are no long term projections. A 4 year cycle high is ideally due now. A 4 ye...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P About To Decline 14%, Catching Up With The Crude Oil Declines?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

This chart looks at the performance of the S&P 500, Crude Oil and the Yield on the 10-Year note over the past 4-months.

Crude Oil has declined around 14% more than the S&P during this time frame. Yields have declined, even more, around 36%. The is a huge spread between these assets over this short of a time period.

A few importa...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

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Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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The Technical Traders

Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling - Part III

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This section of our multi-part article regarding current and past central bank actions, we are going to attempt to look at key elements of the past and present to highlight what we believe may turn out to be an incredible “setup” in the global markets. 

This setup is almost like a complex chess game where two skilled players battle for control and near the end of the game, one player is left with the King, a Rook, and a Pawn while the other player has a dramatic advantage with stronger chess pieces.  Yet, as the game continues, the weaker player is able to remove one or two of the stronger players key pieces and move his pawn to his opponent’s side to r...



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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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