Posts Tagged ‘Personal Income’

Chart of the Day: Personal Income and Outlays

Chart of the Day: Personal Income and Outlays

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Moneybag

I have sifted through the most recent personal income data and wanted to show you a few charts that might indicate where we’re heading.

First, there is personal income.  It’s fallen off a cliff since the recession began. Looking at the six-month average to smooth out blips, personal income growth peaked way back in June and July of 2006 at 7.8%.  The rate of change in personal income is a leading indicator of the economy’s direction because, absent tax changes, less money usually means less spending.

If you notice in the chart, the steep peaks and valleys run in line with the business cycle.  Right now, we are in the worst period in the 50 years of this particular data series by a large margin. The change in personal income began increasing from a low of -1.9% in July and August of 2009, where I expect the technical recession’s end date to be called.

personal-income-2009-12

I have previous data series going back to 1929 and you can see much steeper peaks and valleys in the Great Depression (and to a lesser extent in the mini Depression of 1949). I hope the chart below gives you a sense of the difference between today and the Great Depression.

personal-income-2009-12-historical

The downturn has been attenuated somewhat by tax cuts.  If you look at disposable personal income, the peak was again Jun-Aug 2006 at a 7.1% change year-on-year. This plummeted to a low of 0.5% in Jul-Aug 2009 – so, not as bad as personal income, but pretty horrific nonetheless as it is the worst performance since record keeping began – by a long shot.

personal-income-disposable-2009-12

How has that all translated into consumer spending? Again, we see some serious cliff diving in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – the worst performance since record keeping began – negative year-on-year numbers for the first time ever. The interesting bit is that the downturn in consumption was well before the downturn in income.  That is not the usual pattern. The peak change was 6.7% in Aug-Nov 2005. That’s a year before the summer 2006 peak in income and points to house prices as…
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A Growing Share of Americans’ Income Comes from the Government

A Growing Share of Americans’ Income Comes from the Government

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon

Unemployment Figures Reach 1.97 Million In December

While most eyes were focused on the better-than-expected gross domestic product data for last year’s fourth quarter, this week’s report from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis also included details on U.S. personal income.

Along with wages and salaries, dividends and interest income, this category includes personal current transfer receipts, which the BEA defines as "income payments to persons for which no current services are performed and net insurance settlements." That is, government social benefits (and, to a very minor extent, net transfers received from businesses).

As you can see from the following graph, while the relationship between personal income and GDP has not changed all that much over the course of the past six decades, the share of income accounted for by transfer payments has jumped more than 200 percent.

Transferreceipts

The latest data also confirms that the financial crisis has played a major role in boosting Americans’ dependence — for lack of a better word — on government largesse, with the run-up over the past two years accounting for around a quarter of the relative increase since 1947.

With an ever-greater share of Americans receiving some sort of financial assistance from the government, the obvious question is how — or whether — this shift will affect the political landscape, especially when it comes to making tough choices about social programs, in particular, and public finances, in general.

If and when policymakers decide, for example, that the time is right to rein in spending and cut back on public sector borrowing, will the political will be there to see those efforts through? Or, as cynics might suggest, is a financial crash landing the only real "exit strategy" that is on the table right now?

I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

 


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Testy Tuesday Morning – $1.70 for a Pound? I Don’t Think So…

Has the dollar fallen too far?

The British Pound is now fetching $1.70, a huge break-out and well above the June highs, now valued higher to the dollar than any time since last October.  Britain has aggressively cut rates and expanded their money supply and Britain had banks falling like dominoes before being taken over by the government.   The UK's budget deficit as a percent of GDP is forecast to be 11.6% this year, the second worst on the planet, exceeded only by the US's projection of 13.5% but the UK is forecast to catch up in 2010 with 13.3% of their GDP taken up by debt.  Why then, you may wonder, is the British Pound up 25% against the dollar this year and almost 10% this past month?

The answer to that is the same as the answer to many irrational market moves – SPECULATION.  The dollar in general has been pushed back down to 1-year lows by currency speculators and the Pound is benefiting from their No-Euro policy that makes the UK a relatively safe-looking investment for currency traders who are worried that Eastern Europe will eventually prove to be a weight that drags the rest of the EU down.  With a population and economy about the size of California and the independence of a sovereign nation, any small sign of improvement (like the recent uptick in manufacturing data in the UK) can quickly pull money back to the Pound who, just 30 years ago, were the second strongest currency in the world and, for 500 years before that, was the undisputed global leader.  The UK, as it was 500 years ago, is still ruled by its powerful banking sector and again the fishbowl-like nature of the island nation tends to magnify small improvements we've seen in the UK banks, which causes Japanese housewives (who are very into FOREX trading) to push more money into British currency. 

Japan Housewife forexToday it may become apparent that the Japanese housewives have become a little irrational in their Pound exuberance as nationalized British Bank, Northern Rock, showed a 31% increase in first-half losses to $1.25Bn as bad loan provisions jumped to over $1Bn from under $300M last year.  Even worse for the bank – deposits fell 17% despite the bank's 100% government guarantee
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Phil's Favorites

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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Zero Hedge

National Home Bidding-War Rate Collapses To Decade Low

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A new Redfin report specifies that only 10% of all offers written by Redfin agents on behalf of their homebuying clients faced a bidding war in October, down from 39% the same time last year and now at a 10-year low. Not even a plunge in mortgage rates this year could attract new buyers.

Three of the top metropolitan area for bidding wars in October were located in California -- San Francisco (34.8%), San Jose (20.5%...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Insider Scoop

Glass House Group Appoints Graham Farrar As President

Courtesy of Benzinga

Glass House Group, a California-based cannabis and hemp company, earlier this week appointed Graham Farrar as president.

In his new role, Graham will oversee the company’s short and long-term business strategies, budgets and operations, and report up to Glass House Group CEO Kyle Kazan.

A long-time entrepreneur and an original team member of both Sonos (NASDAQ: SONO...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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