Posts Tagged ‘Pollyanna Creep’

By the Numbers?

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Do you like numbers games?  This might be the post for you.

By the Numbers?

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon

Although I believe that our government has every incentive to make the economy look better, employment appear stronger, and inflation seem weaker than they really are, I’m not a statistician or an economist (for what it’s worth, some might view that as a good thing).

Hence, while I can’t sit here and say for certain that our government manipulates the data in such a way that it has become meaningless, common sense tells me, for instance, that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ assumption that start-up businesses accounted for 43,000 new construction jobs in May is reason enough to doubt whatever Washington is telling us (for a bit more color on this particular statistic, check out "May Employment Report Not Believable" at ChrisMartenson.com)

With that in mind, it’s not hard to side with the views of the statistical gadfly cited in the following SmartMoney report, "True or False: U.S. Economic Stats Lie."

How’s the economy treating you? Chances are, your answer is colored largely by three things: whether you’re working (if you want to), how much you’re making and how quickly your expenses are rising. Economists rely heavily on the same factors to judge the nation’s health. At last count, 9.4% of the workforce is jobless. Compared with a year ago, the goods and services we produce are worth 5.7% less while the ones we buy are 0.7% cheaper.

Two bright people might see sharply different things in those numbers. To one, the shrinking economy is a healthy unwinding of past excess, for example, while to another it’s a dangerous downturn that calls for bold government action. But what if the numbers themselves are something we should be debating? In the alarming view of a vocal few, America’s economic measures are misstated — rigged, really.

The accusation goes like this: Surveyors collect the nation’s data and statisticians compile and report it. Politicians naturally want the numbers to show improvement. Not being


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Zero Hedge

Italy's Luigi Di Maio Resigns As Five Star Leader

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With his once-vanquished partner-turned-rival Matteo Salvini breathing down his neck, Luigi Di Maio, the longtime leader of Italy's anti-establishment, left-of-center Five Star Movement, has stepped down from his position at the head of the party, though he will continue to serve as Italy's foreign minister in a coalition government with the centrist Democrats.

Di Maio

News of Di Maio's departure is a harbinger of more political turbulence in a...



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The Technical Traders

Junior Gold Miners Setting Up For Another Rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our recent research suggests the US stock market may be entering a period of volatility that may include a broad market rotation/reversion event.  We believe this volatility event could begin to happen anytime over the next 10 to 30+ days.  The rally in the US stock market ending 2019 and carrying into 2020 appears to be setting up a “rally to a peak” type of price pattern. Please take a minute to review the following articles we’ve posted recently about this topic and how it relates to opportunities in
Metals/Miners.

January 20, 2020: ...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The MBA's index of mortgage application activity for the latest week is schedule for release at 7:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week is schedule for release at 8:55 a.m. ET.
  • The FHFA house price index for November will be released at 9:00 a.m. ET.
  • Existing home sales report for December is schedule for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews ...



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Phil's Favorites

Oil Is The Only Way Back Up For Venezuela

Courtesy of OilPrice.com, Editorial Dept.

There’s only one path to rebuilding Venezuela, and it’s paved with oil. For the time being, that path leads nowhere.

The key to controlling everything now lies with the National Assembly, the only body with the power to hand out oil licenses—and Maduro’s recent scheme to retake control of the country’s oil may just have been foiled by more Trump sanctions. 

Venezuela is the 12th largest oil producer in the world and home to the world’s largest oil reserves--all of which is irrelevant as long as it remains in the throes of a deep economic and ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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