Posts Tagged ‘POT’

Potash Options Look For Shares To Rebound

Today’s tickers: POT, CHRW & HD

POT – Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. – Options activity on Potash Corp on Monday morning suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the name to continue to rebound in the near term. Shares in POT, down more than 25% since the start of the year, rose 2.4% this morning to $30.59 by 11:35 a.m. ET. Traders looking for shares in Potash to extend gains ahead of the holiday weekend snapped up weekly calls on the stock. Upwards of 1,700 of the Aug 30 ’13 $31.5 strike calls changed hands during the first few hours of the session versus open interest of 51 contracts, with much of the volume purchased at an average premium of $0.26 each. Traders long the $31.5 calls stand ready to profit at expiration in the event that POT’s shares rally another 4.0% over the current price of $30.59 to exceed the average breakeven price of $31.76. The higher Aug 30 ’13 $32 calls are also active today, with around 600 lots purchased for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Buyers of the $32 weekly calls may profit at expiration if shares in Potash Corp rally 5.0% to settle above the breakeven price of $32.16. Finally, trading in the Oct $32 call options also appears to be bullish on the potential for continued gains in POT shares. Roughly 1,200 of the Oct $32 calls traded this morning against open interest of 731 contracts, with much of the volume purchased for an average premium of $1.21 apiece. Options players long the Oct $32 calls make money at expiration if shares in the potash producer jump more than 8.0% during the next seven weeks to top $33.21.

CHRW – C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. – Options volume on transportation services company, C.H. Robinson, is elevated on Monday, with…
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Far Out-Of-The-Money Calls In Play On POT, USO & OXY Ahead Of U.S. Holiday

 

Today’s tickers: POT, USO & OXY

POT - Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. – Shares in the provider of crop nutrients and feed products have rallied sharply in recent weeks, adding nearly 20.0% to $44.76 during the month of June. Potash extended gains Tuesday, adding 2.6% to trade at $45.10 by 10:40 a.m. in New York on an upgrade to ‘Sector Perform’ from ‘Underperform’ with a 12-month target price of $47.50 at National Bank Financial. Trading traffic in far out-of-the-money August expiry call options this morning suggests one or more strategists are positioning for the stock to continue to move higher this summer. It looks like approximately 850 calls were picked up at the Aug. $55 strike for an average premium of $0.04 apiece versus open interest of just 50 contracts. Call buyers shelling out $0.04 per contract stand ready to profit should shares in Potash Corp. gain another 22.0% to surpass the breakeven price of $55.04 within the next six weeks to August expiration. Traders long the calls could look for opportunities to sell the contracts prior to expiration at an advantageous price if POT’s shares continue to climb, although time decay will be working against them. Potash Corp. reports second-quarter earnings ahead of the open on July 26th.

USO - United States Oil Fund, LP – Shares in the USO are extending their move off fresh 52-week lows reached last week as concerns regarding possible restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for QE3 push crude oil prices higher. Shares in the USO are up 4.2% at $32.75 with 50 minutes remaining in today’s shortened trading session. Weekly calls attracted heavy trading traffic within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell as some traders looked to secure exposure to further upside gains in the price of the underlying. Volume in the weekly calls is heaviest at the July 06 ’12 $34.5 strike where some 1,100 calls were purchased at an average…
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Far Out-Of-The-Money Calls In Play At Lululemon, Elan

Today’s tickers: LULU, ELN & POT

LULU - Lululemon Athletica, Inc. – Shares in the maker of high-end athletic apparel are taking a breather today, trading down 1.95% at $72.79 as of 12:30 p.m. in New York after closing at a record-high of $74.25 on Thursday. A large block of LULU call options purchased in the first 30 minutes of the session suggests at least one strategist may be positioning for the price of the underlying to stretch to new heights in the near term. The Company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell next Thursday. Options volume on Lululemon is heaviest at the April $80 strike, where more than 13,700 contracts changed hands against open interest of 1,291 positions. The single largest print, a block of 12,551 calls, appears to have been purchased for a premium of $1.60 per contract. The trader responsible for the transaction may be taking an outright bullish position on the high-flying apparel retailer, although, it’s possible the strategist is short the stock and buying the calls as a hedge. If the trader is making a purely bullish bet on LULU ahead of earnings, profits are available on the long calls in the event that the price of the underlying jumps 12.1% to top the effective breakeven price of $81.60 by expiration next month. Meanwhile, a put spread initiated in the weekly options indicates another trader is prepared for the shares to decline post earnings. It looks like a roughly 1,150-lot Mar. ’23 $65/$70 put spread was purchased at a net premium of $1.15 per contract, thus yielding profits or downside protection should shares dip down to the $70.00-level during the next five trading sessions.

ELN - Elan Corp. PLC – Shares in the Dublin, Ireland-based biotechnology Company are up…
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Rumors Spur Run On Research In Motion Weeklies

     Today’s tickers: RIMM, POT, AXP & HSC

RIMM - Research in Motion Ltd. – Speculation that activist investor Carl Icahn may have approached and taken a stake in beleaguered BlackBerry maker, Research in Motion Ltd., sent shares in the Canadian company up as much as 7.4% to an earlier high of $23.29. The hum of the rumor mill spurred a pile-up in weekly call options on the stock, as traders scrambled to get long the short-dated contracts in the event that the rumors have legs. Speculative plays are heaviest in the Sept. $23 strike call, where more than 14,100 contracts changed hands against previously existing open interest of 2,610 positions. Most of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.42 a-pop, thus preparing longs to profit should RIMM’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $23.42 at expiration this week. Investors exchanged more than 7,100 calls at the higher Sept. $24 strike today, and appear to have purchased a little more than half of the contracts at an average premium of $0.30 a-pop. Traders long the calls may benefit from continued gains in implied volatility and the price of the underlying shares. Clarity on the rumors from Icahn himself may see the stock continue to climb, or could burst call buyers’ bubble and send shares back down. Lack of clarity could potentially work in favor of long options positions should speculation continue to lift volatility.

POT - Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. – Bullish positioning in options that expire at the end of the trading week popped on Potash Corp. this morning, as shares in the producer of fertilizer and feed products rallied 5.75% to $50.05 by 11:05 am EDT. Shares in the Canadian potash producer joined in on today’s relief rally in global equities, and were raised to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ with a 12-month target share price of $60.00 at Atlantic Equities today. Short-term bets on continued strength in Potash Corp.’s shares through the end of the month pushed volume in Sept. ’30…
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Options Strategist Portends Sharp Rally in St. Jude Medical

Today’s tickers: STJ, POT, SNDK & FXI

STJ - St. Jude Medical, Inc. – A three-legged bullish options combination play on St. Jude Medical cost $8,500 to initiate today, but the strategist responsible for the transaction could walk away with more than $1.26 million in his wallet come January 2012 expiration. The options player appears to have sold puts on the medical devices maker to offset premium required to purchase a bull call spread. Shares in St. Jude Medical are currently down 1.9% to stand at $46.49 as of 1:10pm on the East Coast.

The investor sold 1,700 puts at the Jan. 2012 $40 strike for a premium of $1.70 each, purchased the same number of calls up at the Jan. 2012 $50 strike at a premium of $2.45 per contract, and sold 1,700 calls at the Jan. 2012 $57.5 strike for premium of $0.70 apiece. The net cost of putting on the three-way trade amounts to $0.05 per contract or a total of $8,500. The spread positions the trader to make money should STJ’s shares rally 7.7% over the current price of $46.49 to exceed the effective breakeven price of $50.05 at expiration next year. Maximum potential profits of $7.45 per contract, or $1,266,500, are available to the investor if the price of the underlying stock jumps 23.7% in the next seven months to trade above $57.50 at expiration in January. The trader loses the $8,500 paid to establish the position if shares fail to rally as predicted. Additional losses accumulate if shares are sharply lower at expiration. The short stance in Jan. 2012 $40 strike puts indicates the investor may wind up having 170,000 shares of the underlying put to him at $40.00 each should the options land in-the-money at expiration day. The maximum payload requires STJ…
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Monday Market Movement – Do or Dive!

Big week ahead!  

$30Bn in POMO from the Fed runs headlong into earnings reports from 15 of the 30 Dow components along with MoMo darlings like VMW (tonight), BLK (tomorrow morning), POT (Thursday morning) and AMZN (Thursday night).  I already sent out an Alert to Members this morning outlining our strategy and Stock World Weekly did it's usual amazing job of wrapping up last week's action and laying out the week ahead so I won't be too redundant here.  The key driver for the markets continues to be the dollar, which is making more sense now as it saved the Dow and the S&P last week (50% of revenues come from overseas) but not the Russell (only 10% of revs from overseas) or the Nasdaq (30%).   

The Dollar was relentlessly driven down last week, bottoming out at 78 on Friday evening, back to November lows, where they ditched the Dollar all the way down to 75.63 in early November before it broke back up and ran to 81.44 on the last day of the month.  Now we're back down 4.2% from the Thanksgiving highs for the Dollar and the Dow and S&P are up 8%, which is our usual 2:1 correlation yet Uncle Rupert's Journal would have you believe that the Dollar no longer matters and that this rally is about (please sit down, PSW cannot be responsible for any beverages you are about to spit on your keyboad) – wait for it – Fundamentals!  

According to the Journal:  In recent weeks, for example, moves in stocks and the U.S. dollar have had little connection—a breakdown of the trend during much of 2010, when they were virtual mirror images of each other. Stocks were considered risky and would rise when investors were feeling confident, while the dollar was a haven, benefiting when investors were worried.  Commodities, too, have broken away from rising and falling with risk perceptions. Now more old-fashioned concerns, like the weather, are having an impact. Corn, soybean and wheat prices jumped this month after supply estimates were cut due to dry weather in South America and floods in Australia.

Really?  So the run in DBA from 22.85 in June of last year to 31.65 (38.5%)…
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Monday Market Movement – “Like Moths to a Flame!”

"Investors are drawn to China like moths to a flame." – Neil Woodford

That’s a great quote.  Neil is the head of investments at Invesco, running the UK’s largest investment fund with a decade of 15% average returns under his belt so let’s take the man seriously for starters.  Mr Woodford’s concerns coincide with figures showing that food prices in China were 10.1pc higher in October than in the same month last year – a level of inflation not seen since mid-2007. This is deepening concern that China’s economy is now starting to overheat.

"I do not deny that in the long term an economy like China will grow much more rapidly than the West. But I think one has to be very careful about correlating growth necessarily with economic opportunity, and opportunity to make money," said Mr. Woodford.  

And so it is that the moths are all drawn to the light, even as it burns them. For they are blindly drawn to its grace, hitting their heads about the light, destroying their senses, going without food, and becoming easy prey to those that hunt them.  Even those few moths that will get within the embrase of the light will burn unable to escape, ever

There was no escape for Ireland this weekend as the IMF and EU pinned the country down and forced them to swallow a $130Bn aid package at (get this!) 6.7%.  $17.5Bn of this money is to come out of Irish pension funds all just to make sure Bill Gross doesn’t lose any of the money he lent to Ireland!  I honestly cannot tell you who is the more vile, despicable villain in this debacle.  Is it the banks, who started this mess with their idiotic lending practices?  Is it the lobbyists and lawmakers, who turned Ireland into a tax haven for EU Corporations and destroyed the economy by funneling tax breaks to the wealthy?  Is it the Irish Government, who stupidly bailed out the failing banks with guarantees that put the nation on the hook for more money than their entire GDP.  Is it the bondholders, who drove up the cost of financing Ireland’s newfound debt to levels that threatened to break the National Bank or is it the EU & IMF, who are effectively playing the role of loan sharks, borrowing $100Bn at…
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Options Feeding Frenzy Ensues on Halliburton Co.

 Today’s tickers: HAL, BP, USU, S, POT, VALE & SKX

HAL - Halliburton Co. – Investors are piling into put options on the oil services provider this afternoon following reports that suggest Halliburton shares culpability with BP for failing to act on warning signs that may have prevented the disastrous Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. At around 1:30 pm this afternoon, HAL’s shares descended into freefall, declining as much as 16.15% to an intraday low of $28.86 in the span of about 30 minutes. Shares gained some composure later in the session, but are still down 10.15% to stand at $30.93 as of 2:45 pm in New York. According to articles on the subject today, HAL submitted documents to the National Commission investigating the BP spill that showed that three out of the four tests of the foam cement conducted by Halliburton before the April 20 blowout indicated the mixture would be unstable. Although Halliburton shared the results of one of two tests conducted in February, neither BP nor Halliburton acted on the information from the foam-stability tests. Uncertainty regarding the impact this new information may have on HAL going forward sent options traders into overdrive and fueled a more than 89.7% increase in the stock’s overall reading of options implied volatility to an intraday high of 62.38%. Investors have driven options volume on Halliburton up to 225,000 contracts as of 3:05 pm. Volume is heaviest in the November contract with the $30 strike put options receiving the most attention. More than 19,000 puts have changed hands at that strike. But, traders are purchasing more bearish contracts as well in case HAL’s shares continue to suffer in the weeks ahead. Pessimists purchased puts at the November $25 strike, where more than 3,400 lots changed hands, at an average premium of $0.39 each. Near-term call options are quite active, as well. The majority of volume in November contract calls appears to be the work of sellers throwing in the towel on the HAL following today’s news story. Longer-term bearishness appeared in the April 2011 contract where one trader initiated a ratio put spread. It looks like the investor purchased 1,250 puts at the April 2011…
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Whole Foods Strangled; Enormous Prints in Technology SPDR Put Options

 Today’s tickers: WFMI, XLK, LCC, POT, BMC, TGT & BKE

WFMI - Whole Foods Market, Inc. – Shares of the operator of natural and organic foods supermarkets slipped 2.40% lower this afternoon to $35.31 as of 3:05 pm ET. The stock popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one strategist initiated a short strangle in the November contract. It looks like the investor responsible for the trade expects shares in Whole Foods remain range-bound through expiration day next month. The trader sold 5,000 puts at the November $33 strike at a premium of $1.00 each, and shed 5,000 calls at the November $38 strike for premium of $0.92 a-pop. Gross premium pocketed by the strangle-seller amounts to $1.92 per contract. The trader keeps the full premium received as long as WFMI’s shares trade within the boundaries of the strike prices described through expiration. Short stances taken in both call and put options expose the investor to losses, however, should the price of the underlying stock fly upward or fall substantially in the next six weeks. The options strategist starts to lose money if shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $39.92, or should shares trade below the lower breakeven point at $31.08, by expiration day in November.

XLK - Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF – A massive debit put spread utilizing a total of 224,000 contracts on the Technology fund went through electronically this afternoon just after 2:00 pm in New York trading. The spread is perhaps the work of one big options market participant positioning for the price of the underlying shares to slide lower ahead of December expiration. Shares of the XLK, an exchange-traded fund designed to provide investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Technology Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, edged 0.17% lower to $23.14 by 2:50 pm ET. Companies represented in the Technology Select Sector Index are engaged in industries such as information technology, consulting, semiconductor equipment and products, as…
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Turn Up Tuesday – POT Gets Really High

BHP offered to pay $38.4Bn for POT this morning.

Is BHP high or is this market seriously undervalued?  Well, for one thing, POT turned them down saying the offer ($130/share – CASH) "substantially undervalues PotashCorp and fails to reflect both the value of our premier position in a strategically vital industry and our unparalleled future growth prospects."  CEO Dallas Howe continues: "We believe it is critical for our shareholders to be aware of this aggressive attempt to acquire their company for significantly less than its intrinsic value. The fertilizer industry is emerging from the recent global economic downturn, and we feel strongly that PotashCorp shareholders should benefit from the current and potential value of the Company. We believe the BHP Billiton proposal is an opportunistic effort to transfer that value to its own shareholders."

Considering POT closed at $112 yesterday, so a 16% pop in the offer but POT was at $85 at the beginning of July and hasn’t been over $130 since the 2008 crash, although they did top out at $239.35 so I suppose a very patient investor could imagine that within 5 years, $200 is not an unreasonable goal.  Still, is that enough reason to turn down $130 of cash now, with the proverbial 1.3 birds in the hand being worth 2 in the bush? 

Back on July 12th (when POT was trading at $92.81 and the Dow was at 10,200) my premise for looking for S&P 1,100 and Dow 10,700 was that Corporate America’s Non-Financial companies were sitting on a $2Tn pile of cash and, as an old M&A consultant, it seemed pretty obvious to me what was going to happen to that money. 

We’ve had plenty of M&A activity recently.  In fact, M&A activity in the first half of 2010 saw 5,345 deals (up 49% from last year), the highest level since 2007, indicating that companies are INCREASING their confidence in the economy despite the BS spin you are getting from politicos who NEED you to believe things are worse than they seem and the MSM, who push fear like heroin to create a NEED for their product.

POT’s board of directors is very confident that they don’t NEED BHP’s money and BHP may NEED POT badly enough to want to sweeten the deal – frankly I’m surprised at the timing because I would have waited for another dip and the fact that BHP (one of the World’s largest resource companies with $50Bn in annual sales)…
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Phil's Favorites

Stall Speed Economy

 

Stall Speed Economy

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

When Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at Yorktown in 1781, tradition has it that the British band played an old English children’s folk tune, “The World Turned Upside Down.”


Painting by John Trumbull

If buttercups buzz’d after the bee,
If boats were on land, churches on sea,
If ponies rode men and if grass ate the cows,
And cats should be chased into holes by the mouse,
If the mamas sold their babies
To the gypsies for half a crown;
If summer were spring and the other way ‘round,
...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks: Senate Republicans hint openness to working with Biden

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Republicans and Democrats have been unable to reach a consensus on the next stimulus package so far. Efforts by the White House to broker a deal haven’t resulted in success either. Thus, it looks unlikely that there will be any stimulus package before the November election. Similar signs are also being given by Senate Republicans, who are now hinting that they are open to striking a relief deal on coronavirus stimulus checks and other benefits with Joe Biden if he wins the presidential election in November.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

...

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Politics

Can Trump and McConnell get through the 4 steps to seat a Supreme Court justice in just 6 weeks?

 

Can Trump and McConnell get through the 4 steps to seat a Supreme Court justice in just 6 weeks?

A political battle is shaping up over the confirmation of the next Supreme Court Justice. Jose Luis Magana / AFP/Getty Images

By Caren Morrison, Georgia State University

United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Sept. 18, thrusting the acrimonious struggle for control of the Supreme Court into public view.

President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have already ...



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Zero Hedge

The Possible Limits Of China-Russia Cooperation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,

China and Russia's coordinated policies in foreign affairs and economic endeavors belie deep-seated fissures that might well prevent their current period of cooperation from evolving into a sustained alliance.

Despite China's planned participation in Russia's annual ...



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Chart School

Stocks are not done yet - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are a few times in history when a third party said this US paper (stocks, funds or bonds) is worthless.

Here is two.

1) 1965 Nixon Shock - The French said to US we do not want your paper dollars please pay us in gold. This of course led to the US going off the gold standard.

2) 2007 Bear Stern Fund Collapse - Investors said their funds collateral was worth much less than stated. This of course was the beginning of the great america housing bust of 2008.


In both cases it was stated .."look the Emperor is naked!"... (The Empe...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Breakout Triggers Buy Signal, Is $3000 Next Target?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

90-days ago this cup & handle pattern was discussed on See It Market when Gold was trading at 1717.

Fast-forward to today and Gold is up 15 percent. So it’s time for an update!

As we pointed out 90-days ago, the initial price magnet for the rally was the 261.8 Fibonacci extension that marked the 2011 high at (1).

That high has served as price resistance for nearly 9 years! …But it may be ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

 

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

Firefighters have battled camp crud before, but COVID-19 brings new risks with the potential for heart and lung damage. Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

By Luke Montrose, Boise State University

Two forces of nature are colliding in the western United States, and wildland firefighters are caught in the middle.

Emerging research suggests that ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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