Posts Tagged ‘public pensions’

Schwarzenegger on Public Pensions and the Cost of the “Protected Class”

Schwarzenegger on Public Pensions and the Cost of the "Protected Class"

Courtesy of Mish

44014, LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - Thursday August 26, 2010. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the 38th Governor of California, is spotted walking back to his convertible after having breakfast at Le Pain Quotidien in Brentwood. Arnold, who could be seen snacking on a treat, wore a white button up, blue trousers, a silver wallet chain and a large wrist watch. Photograph: Pedro Andrade/Kevin Perkins,  PacificCoastNews.com   + 1

Now that Schwarzenegger is a certifiable lame duck (dead duck may be a more appropriate term) Schwarzenegger sees fit to take on public unions in a major way. It’s too late now (for him) even as he speaks the truth.

Please consider Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future by Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Recently some critics have accused me of bullying state employees. Headlines in California papers this month have been screaming "Gov assails state workers" and "Schwarzenegger threatens state workers."

I’m doing no such thing. State employees are hard-working and valuable contributors to our society. But here’s the plain truth: California simply cannot solve its budgetary problems without addressing government-employee compensation and benefits.

Thanks to huge unfunded pension and retirement health-care promises granted by past governments, and also to deceptive pension-fund accounting that understated liabilities and overstated future investment returns, California is now saddled with $550 billion of retirement debt.

The cost of servicing that debt has grown at a rate of more than 15% annually over the last decade. This year, retirement benefits—more than $6 billion—will exceed what the state is spending on higher education. Next year, retirement costs will rise another 15%. In fact, they are destined to grow so much faster than state revenues that they threaten to suck up the money for every other program in the state budget.

At the same time that government-employee costs have been climbing, the private-sector workers whose taxes pay for them have been hurting. Since 2007, one million private jobs have been lost in California. Median incomes of workers in the state’s private sector have stagnated for more than a decade. To make matters worse, the retirement accounts of those workers in California have declined. The average 401(k) is down nationally nearly 20% since 2007. Meanwhile, the defined benefit retirement plans of government employees—for which private-sector workers are on the hook—have risen in value.

Few Californians in the private sector have $1 million in savings, but that’s effectively the retirement account they guarantee to public employees who opt to retire at age 55 and are entitled to a monthly, inflation-protected check of $3,000 for the rest of their lives.

In 2003, just before I became governor, the state assembly even passed a law permitting government employees to purchase additional taxpayer-guaranteed, high-yielding


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




Huge Battle Looms Over Public Pensions – Who Will (Who Should) Foot the Bill?

Huge Battle Looms Over Public Pensions – Who Will (Who Should) Foot the Bill?

Courtesy of Mish

Public pension plans are $1 to $3 trillion underfunded. I think the number is closer to $3 trillion and destined to get worse. However, even $1 trillion is a massive problem.

With so much at stake, a Battle Looms Over Huge Costs of Public Pensions

There’s a class war coming to the world of government pensions. The haves are retirees who were once state or municipal workers. Their seemingly guaranteed and ever-escalating monthly pension benefits are breaking budgets nationwide.

The have-nots are taxpayers who don’t have generous pensions. Their 401(k)s or individual retirement accounts have taken a real beating in recent years and are not guaranteed. And soon, many of those people will be paying higher taxes or getting fewer state services as their states put more money aside to cover those pension checks.

At stake is at least $1 trillion. That’s trillion, with a “t,” as in titanic and terrifying.

Given how wrong past pension projections were, who should pay to fill the 13-figure financing gap?

Consider what’s going on in Colorado — and what is likely to unfold in other states and municipalities around the country. Earlier this year, in an act of rare political courage, a bipartisan coalition of state legislators passed a pension overhaul bill. Among other things, the bill reduced the raise that people who are already retired get in their pension checks each year.

This sort of thing just isn’t done. States have asked current workers to contribute more, tweaked the formula for future hires or banned them from the pension plan altogether. But this was apparently the first time that state legislators had forced current retirees to share the pain.

The state’s case turns, in part, on whether it is an “actuarial necessity” for the Legislature to make a change. To Meredith Williams, executive director of the Public Employees’ Retirement Association, the state’s pension fund, the answer is pretty simple. “If something didn’t change, we would have run out of money in the foreseeable future,” he said. “So no one would have been paid anything.”

Meanwhile, Gary R. Justus, a former teacher who is one of the lead plaintiffs in the case against the state, asks taxpayers in Colorado and elsewhere to consider an ethical question: Why is the state so quick


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Mish is a picture of optimism compared to Robert Prechter (of Elliott Wave Fame).  Robert Prechter is wrong, instead of dropping to 1,000, the Dow may only drop to 5,000, and even that may be too pessimistic in Mish’s eyes. - Ilene 

Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Courtesy of Mish 

I don’t know about you but I am psyched. The prospects of an ongoing party for another decade are extremely good as the following chart shows.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Market participants put on their party hats and started cheering in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. They have been cheering pretty much nonstop ever since.

Admittedly there was a bit of a party lag between early 2005 and late 2008 but the party hats have been working overtime since mid-2008 as shown below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – October 2010 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Lost Decades Comparison

Please bear in mind that some pessimists liken the above behavior to a period of stunning underperformance of the Japanese Nikkei Index over the last two decades.

Japan’s Two Lost Decades

click on chart for sharper image

The Perpetually Optimistic Mish

Being the ever-optimist that I am, I want to quickly point out that while Japan essentially went straight down over two decades, the US by comparison has put in stunning outperformance by going nowhere.

Top hat and champagne glass held aloft for New Year's

Indeed, the Dow Jones Index is remarkably sitting exactly where it was in April of 1999, over 10 years ago while the Nikkei over the same timeframe fell by about 50%.

Optimists such as myself have only one thing to say: Hallelujah!

Meanwhile doom and gloomers like Robert Prechter think the Dow will fall to 1,000.

To that I say "Poppycock" (pretty harsh language indeed for those who know me well).

By my optimistic comparison, I think the Dow’s downside is 5,000. That is a stunning 400% more optimistic appraisal of the current state of affairs than Prechter.

Furthermore, I freely admit that the DOW, instead of dropping, just may meander around 10,000 for another decade.

Wow. Except for public pension plan assumptions, imagine the parties we can have over that!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Tags: , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update - Classic continuation setup

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has a classic continuation pattern set up, but of course every one can see it, so the trickery around the break out to higher prices will wear out some weak hands.

The continuation pattern (bull flag) is also at major all time high resistance, in Wyckoff language you can call this a 'spring board' as it is the final work done by the composite man before higher prices are achieved. Expect prices to move higher very quickly, so the retail trader wont be able to build any position of size. This blog target is $2500 on gold futures price.



Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



...

more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Death threats and intimidation of public officials signal Trump's autocratic legacy

 

Death threats and intimidation of public officials signal Trump's autocratic legacy

Rioters storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, seeking to intimidate politicians into overturning the presidential election. AP Photo/John Minchillo

Courtesy of Shelley Inglis, University of Dayton

As the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump approaches, federal officials are investigating threats to attack or kill members of Congres...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

GDS Investments 2020 Annual Letter: Long First Solar

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

GDS Investments letter to investors for the year ended December 31, 2020, discussing their biggest performance contributors Berkshire Hathaway, BYD Company, First Solar, QUALCOMM, Roku, Twitter, and Zillow Group.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

“If you’re going through hell, keep going.” - Winston Churchill

“Only if you have been in the deepest valley, can you ever know how magnificent it is to be on the highest mountain.” - Richard Nixon

Testing...

more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Rally Here Sends A Bearish Message To Stocks

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Bonds have experienced a large percentage decline since the highs of last March. Have bonds fallen enough?

If they rally, could they be sending a bearish message to stocks?

This chart looks at Govt Bond ETF (TLT) over the past 20-years. TLT has created a series of higher lows and higher highs inside of the rising channel (1). An upside breakout took place last year as stocks started tanking in late January, as news of Covid started taking place.

The large decline in TLT currently has it testing the top of the channel, which now comes into play as support at...



more from Kimble C.S.

Zero Hedge

10Y Yield Tumbles Below 1.00% As Liquidations Lash Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As the short-squeeze malarkey accelerates this morning...

Source: Bloomberg

Funds are being forced to liquidate their longs to cover losses/margin...

Source: Bloomberg

And that is weighing on the broad market...

...



more from Tyler

Biotech/COVID-19

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

 

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

Health care workers and patients in the temporary outside area Steve Biko Academic Hospital created to screen and treat suspected Covid-19 cases in Pretoria. Alet Pretorius/Gallo Images via Getty Images

Courtesy of Willem Hanekom, Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI) and Tulio de Oliveira, University of KwaZulu-Natal

Late last year the ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Digital Currencies

Ethereum Surges To New Record High As DeFi Boom Re-Accelerates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Coins that power decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are soaring recently as bitcoin treads water.

While bitcoin grabbed all the headlines early on in the year, it is the rest of the crypto space that is stealing its thunder most recently as Ethereum, the backbone of the smart contracts that define much of the DeFi space, has drastically outperformed...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest for ETH relative to BTC since

...

more from Bitcoin

Politics

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

 

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

Far-right groups like the Proud Boys, seen here marching in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 12, are increasingly organizing their activities on messaging services like Telegram. Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

Courtesy of Kevin GrishamCalifornia State University San Bernardino

Right-wing extremists called for open revolt against the U.S. government ...



more from Politics

Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.