Posts Tagged ‘Reggie Middleton’

Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton, posted at Zero Hedge and originally posted at Reggie’s BoomBustBlog

368322 09: A car passes by the sign in front of the Apple offices Computer April 21, 2000 in Cupertino, CA. The company is one of many computer technology corporations situated in Silicon Valley. (Photo by David McNew/ Newsmakers).

Goldman has recently issued a strong buy recommendation on Apple, offering a $430 price target. I have been on record many times stating that Apples will be facing the toughest competition of its existence since Microsoft nearly put them out of business. This, of course, appears to be in direct contravention to the Goldman Sachs call which just happened to come out the day Apple hits its all time high. Being that Apple has more than its fair share of fans who ignore common sense, this is enough to set the stock on fire. The question still remains though, “Is Goldman right?” Goldman very well could be right, but not for the reasons most retail investors believe. Despite overwhelming evidence plus plain old history to the contrary, many investors and mainstream media outlets still take the sell side of Wall Street at their word. Sell side analysts are marketing arms for the brokerage sales force, the investment banking sales force and the traders who move inventory in and out of their respective banks. What they are not are wealth and strategy advisers for retail and institutional investors. Their historical performance clearly illustrates this, thus their is not need to take this entrepreneurial investor and blogger’s word for it. Well, for those of you who either don’t know of me or don’t know of Goldman, here’s a quick recap of Reggie Middleton vs. Goldman Sachs:

Who was more accurate concerning Google? Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010

Who was more accurate concerning Lehman Brothers, the Ivy league, ivory tower boys doing God’s work or that blogger with the smart ass mouth from Brooklyn?

Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.

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As a matter of fact, who was more accurate during the ENTIRE Asset Securitization and Credit Crisis of the last three years?  We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street’s sell side research:…
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As I Have Anticipated, There is Absolutely No Fire in the Torch, Except for the One That’s Frying RIMM’s Share Price

As I Have Anticipated, There is Absolutely No Fire in the Torch, Except for the One That’s Frying RIMM’s Share Price

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

So it has been a month and a week since turning bearish on Research in Motion, and after more than 100% gains in ATM options, a launch of the companies most pivotal product and the figurative obliteration of market share by competitors Apple and Android, Rethink Wireless reports:

After a burst of enthusiasm around RIM’s launch of its latest BlackBerry, the Torch, the firm’s shares have slid again, amid reports of disappointing initial performance. The Torch 9700, the first smartphone to run the company’s upgraded operating system, BlackBerry OS 6, is seen as RIM’s crucial device to fend off the rising attack on its market from Apple and Android.
But online retailer Amazon has already slashed the price of the device to $99, less than a week after the phone shipped in the US on August 12, with an AT&T exclusive. It will soon appear in some European markets with Vodafone. According to estimates from analysts at Stifel Nicolaus and RBC, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, the Torch has sold just 150,000 units since launch, compared to 1.7m iPhone 4s in the first three days of that handset’s availability (and despite ‘Antennagate’).

But at launch, many analysts questioned whether it was enough to move ahead of Apple, HTC and other companies currently leading the field – or merely a catch-up device for a range that had fallen well behind the cutting edge.

In a new research note, analyst firm Gartner says it believes the Torch will appeal mainly to traditional BlackBerry users in the business world, and stop them defecting to other smartphones, but is unlikely to attract new users. It may fare better in Europe, where the BlackBerry has been making significant progress in the youth market, depending on carrier pricing and marketing.

Shares in RIM have fallen steadily since the launch of the Torch, dropping almost $5 per share since August 12. One analyst downgrading the firm was Scott Sutherland of Wedbush, who moved shares from outperform to neutral and wrote in a client note: “We continue to believe that RIM’s strategic positioning in the enterprise, alignment with carriers, new products, and international expansion will allow the company to participate in the solid
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An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Oppurtunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses

An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton writing at Zero Hedge 

Apple has had a hell of a time with what is arguably its most important product release since the initial iPhone in 2007. The handsets have been plagued with spotty screens, combustible USB ports, signal strength measurement inconsistencies, and the most damaging of the issues – an ill-conceived antenna design that causes attenuation when held from the lower left had corner. Steve Jobs did the Blankfein (Goldman Sachs CEO, stating that the Wall Street bank was doing God’s work) imitation by opening his mouth when he shouldn’t have and said that users were “hold the phone the wrong way”. Not only that, but Consumer Reports just came out with a report stating that they can not recommend the buying of an iPhone until the antenna situation has been rectified, prompting speculation that Apple will be forced to recall millions of phones.

As a matter of fact, the review was rather poignant:

“If you want an iPhone that works well without a masking-tape fix, we continue to recommend an older model, the 3G S.”

Apple iPhone 4 antenna problem solution tape
One solution to the Apple iPhone 4’s antenna problem is to cover the lower left corner with tape.

As evidence of the danger of relying on “lifestyle” marketing (see An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught)…

It is very easy to fall out of favor with the trendy crowd. While I doubt very seriously that Apple is in danger of doing this anytime soon, a massive recall will open the door for devices which are technically much more capable, flexible and open than the iPhone, ex. the Android powered HTC and Samsung devices. Basically, the danger to Apple here is not the expense of a recall, but the loss of mindshare and potential widening of the opening for some very capable competition – an opening that did not have to be there!

Don’t believe me, click the link to the consumer reports article and peruse the comment section…

Posted by: John |
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How the US Has Perfected the Use of Economic Imperialism

How the US Has Perfected the Use of Economic Imperialism Through the European Union!

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

The IMF, like many other international institutions, asserts that it has a “preferred creditor status”, and this has been a practiced convention in the past. Thus, IMF has de facto seniority rights over private creditors despite the fact that there is no legal or treaty-based foundation to support this claim and this seniority of rights for IMF will continue under the recent EU rescue plan announced as well as it has not been noted otherwise implicitly nor explicitly. This is the reason why Sarkozy said it is a said day when the EU has to accept a bailout from the IMF (aka, the US). The EU now, and truly, contains a significant parcel of debtor nations.

To add fuel to this global macro tabloidal fire, the Euro members’ loan will be pari passu with existing sovereign debt i.e. it will not be considered senior. Although there is no written, hard evidence to support this claim, it is our view that otherwise there will be no incentive for investors to hold the debt of troubled countries like Greece, which will ultimately defeat the whole purpose of the rescue package. Moreover, there are indications that support this idea. As per Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, “We are not talking about a special preference for the eurogroup loans, that’s not possible because then you would have the situation that already-existing rights of creditors at the moment would be harmed.” (reference http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-16/netherlands-excludes-senior-status-for-greek-aid-update1-.html). Of course, if more investors did their homework and ran the numbers, that same disincentive can be said to exist with the IMF’s super senior preference given the event of a default and recoverable collateral after the IMF has fed at the trough.

The ramifications:

IMF’s preferred creditor status coupled with the expensive Euro members’ loans which are part of the rescue package can create a public debt snowball effect that could push the troubled countries towards insolvency when the IMF debt becomes repayable in three years time. This could be seen particularly in case of Greece (subscribers, please reference Greece Public Finances Projections). Even if all the spending cuts and revenue raising are achieved as planned for Greece, its debt will peak to 149.1% of the GDP in 2013. Please keep…
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Smoking Swap Guns in EuroLand: Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware

Smoking Swap Guns in EuroLand: Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware 

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton’s BoomBustBlog.com

Inner court, Fleet

There are broad indications hinting that Italy and Greece are not the only countries that have used swap agreements to manipulate its budget and deficit figures. France and Portugal may be two other European economies which have resorted to similar manipulations in the past in order to qualify as part of single currency member nations (Euro Zone). Below is a small subset of the research that I have been gathering as I construct a global sovereign default model. This model is very comprehensive and thus far has indicated that quite a few (as in more than two or three) nations of significance have a 90% probability of defaulting on their debt in the near to medium term.

More on this later. Now let’s dig into what we have found that looks like gross manipulation of the numbers in order to hide debt in several European countries. I think I’ll call it the Pan-European Ponzi. Conspiracy theorists are going to love this post.

Like Italy (see below), Portugal has also been known for years to take advantage of derivatives contracts to dress up its budget numbers in the late 1990s. In a recent press article (Debt Deals Haunt Europe) Deutsche Bank’s spokesman Roland Weichert commented that the bank executed currency swaps on behalf of Portugal between 1998 and 2003. He also said that Deutsche Bank’s (DB) business with Portugal included "completely normal currency swaps" and other business activity, which he declined to discuss in detail. He also added that the currency swaps on behalf of Portugal were within the "framework of sovereign-debt management," and the trades weren’t intended to hide Portugal’s national debt position (yeah okay!).

Though the Portuguese finance ministry declined to comment on whether Portugal has used currency swaps such as those used by Greece, it said Portugal only uses financial instruments that comply with European Union rules. Thus, if the use of these instruments complied with


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Reggie Middleton on Suntrust’s Q3-09 Earnings

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

For all of you momentum chasing, non-calculating, never touched a spreadsheet, CNBC luvin’, James Cramer watchin’ bulls out there, I have a feeling you will be hearing a lot of I told’ja so’s over the next 12 months. I express this in jest (yes, I’m a part time comedian), but there is a serious streak here as well. I believe the equity prices are soaring on top of near, or actually, insolvent companies.

Well, hopefully by now you have heard of the Doo Doo 32 (As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo!), of which Suntrust was a founding member. Well, they are even on the board of the The Doo Doo 32, revisited. Click the links, they’re worth the read. Since Suntrust reported today, I though I would go over some of the numbers but before I do let’s get the flavor from the main stream media…

 
 

SunTrust posts 3Q loss but sees some signs improve   22 Oct 2009  -  The Associated Press: ATLANTA – SunTrust Banks Inc. on Thursday posted a big third-quarter loss as it set aside more money to cover bad loans, but said the rate at which mortgages were slipping into delinquency slowed for the first time in a year.

The bank reported a loss of $377.1 million, or 76 cents per share, compared with a year-ago profit of $304.4 million, or 87 cents per share.

The latest quarter included charges of 16 cents per share related to the valuation of certain debt.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, forecast a loss of 65 cents per share. Analysts typically do not include one-time gains or charges in their estimates. #ff0000;">Why don’t these analysts have thier banks part with a fraction of that record trading revenue (I’ll be getting to that in my next post) and subscribe to BoomBustBlog!?

Net interest income, or money earned from traditional banking operations like deposits, slipped slightly to $1.17 billion from $1.18 billion. Total deposits reached $114.5 billion, up 14 percent from last year.

The bank more than doubled its provision for loan losses — money set aside to cover souring loans — to $1.13 billion, from $503.7 million in the 2008 quarter.

Loans considered


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Phil's Favorites

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

 

Picture via Pixabay

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

Courtesy of Katrina Kelly-Pitou, University of Pittsburgh

The word “bitcoin” is as likely to garner feverish excitement as it is glaring criticism. The financial community sees speculative promise in the form of trade that currently has little to no regulation. Meanwhile, others argue that it’s a distraction that detracts from the overall longevity of U.S. financial institutions.

Bitcoin’s energy consumption has become a recent talking point in the debate. ...



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Digital Currencies

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

 

Picture via Pixabay

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

Courtesy of Katrina Kelly-Pitou, University of Pittsburgh

The word “bitcoin” is as likely to garner feverish excitement as it is glaring criticism. The financial community sees speculative promise in the form of trade that currently has little to no regulation. Meanwhile, others argue that it’s a distraction that detracts from the overall longevity of U.S. financial institutions.

Bitcoin’s energy consumption has become a recent talking point in the debate. ...



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Zero Hedge

"Keep An Eye On Gold" - Trader Sees Market Screaming "Gimme A Break Already"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Markets are screaming "gimme a break already," according to former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow, who notes that with Turkey on an extended summer holiday and Chinese equities getting a late-day boost from their friends, there has been little appetite for angst.

Breslow suggests "we should try it on for size and enjoy it while it lasts."

Via Bloomberg,

...



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ValueWalk

How Does Impact Investment Drive A Social Change And Profit?

By Nathan William. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For a prolonged time, investors have been satisfied with making money. They put little thought into where the money is invested, as long as the dividends are paid and the shares are doing well. But in the last decade, there has been a paradigm shift in terms of how and where investments are made. This alternative approach to investments outs an immense emphasis on corporate social responsibility, company ethics, and it’s all about giving back something worthwhile to the society and the environment as a whole. This wave of change is known as impact investment.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper down 20%, sending a macro message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Doc Copper has had a rough go of it over the past 7-years and especially of late.

Since the highs back in 2011, Doc Copper has created a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Since the lows in 2015, it has experienced a strong rally, creating a series of higher lows, as interest rates and several commodities did the same.

In June Doc Copper may have created a double top at (1), as it was testing last years highs. Since hitting 2017 highs at (1), Doc Copper has declined nearly 20% in the past 10-weeks.

The decline now has it testing potential dual support at (2...



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Insider Scoop

Goldman Sachs: Newly Public Aurora Mobile Set To Gain Market Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 28 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 20, 2018 ...

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Biotech

Approval of first 'RNA interference' drug - why the excitement?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Approval of first ‘RNA interference’ drug – why the excitement?

Single strands of ribonucleic acid (RNA) are now being used to treat disease. By nobeastsofierce / shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Thomas Schmittgen, University of Florida

Small interfering RNA sounds like something from a science fiction novel rather than a revolutionary type of medicine. But this odd-sounding new drug of...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Aug 19, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A good amount of volatility this past week, but once again indexes are just sort of hanging around as we work through some news items, specifically facing trade issues.  We ended last week with some hand wringing over Turkey – while nothing was really resolved, U.S. markets looked past that… however emerging markets continue their struggle.  The U.S. indexes have simply been range bound for weeks on end.

The Turkish central bank pledged in a statement Monday to provide “all the liquidity the banks need.” It also said banks would be able to borrow foreign-exchange deposits from the central bank at one-month and one-week maturities. Analysts said T...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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