Posts Tagged ‘Schumpeterian Depressions’

Anemic Job Creation During The “Schumpeterian Depression”

Anemic Job Creation During The "Schumpeterian Depression"

Joseph SchumpeterCourtesy of Mish

The Wall Street Journal is discussing some interesting trends in business creation and small business hiring. Please consider Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs, Growth Outlook.

New companies will be crucial to the strength of any economic recovery. Businesses in their first 90 days of life accounted for 14% of hiring in the U.S. between 1993 and 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But this recession is taking a particularly heavy toll on business creation, as sources of small-business funding dry up and would-be entrepreneurs become more risk-averse. When entrepreneurs do launch businesses, they are hiring fewer employees on average. The trends threaten to damp growth in jobs and economic output for years.

Company formation typically dips slightly in recessions, says Brian Headd, a Small Business Administration economist. Earlier this decade, business starts — including new businesses and units of existing businesses — fell 9% between the third quarter of 2000 and the first quarter of 2003, the BLS says.

This time, the decline has been steeper. Business starts fell 14% from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008; the 187,000 businesses launched in that quarter were the fewest in a quarter since 1995. The number ticked up slightly in the fourth quarter, the latest data available. But those new establishments created only 794,000 jobs, the fewest since the government began tracking the data in 1993.

To be sure, as in past recessions, some laid-off workers are starting businesses to stay afloat, or testing long-held dreams. The Kauffman Foundation, a nonprofit research group that promotes entrepreneurship, says more Americans started businesses last year than in 2007. Kauffman cites research by University of California, Santa Cruz, economist Robert Fairlie, who analyzes different BLS data.

Mr. Fairlie, says statistics suggest more businesses are being created more out of "necessity" than "opportunity." That "does not bode as well for economic growth," he says.

The number of new businesses with relatively low income potential — such as baby-sitting and house-cleaning services — grew last year. But compared with 2007, there were fewer new businesses with high income potential — like law firms, medical offices and manufacturing outfits.

Trends In Business Hiring

[click on images for larger views]

business start ups
 

Chart courtesy of the WSJ with data


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Leader Facing Important Long-Term Breakout Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2009 lows, Semiconductors have been taken a leadership role as they have far outpaced the gains of the S&P 500.

Gains since the 2009 lows; SOXX Index = +821% S&P 500 = +273%.

The SOXX index has spent the majority of the past 10-years inside of rising channel (1), which first started at the  2009 lows.

As the SOXX index is testing the top of this 10-year rising channel, it is also testing its Fibonacci 423% extension level of its 2001 highs and 2009 lows at (2).

This leading index would send a positive message t...



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Zero Hedge

Global Stocks Slide After Apple Guidance Cut Is "Wake Up Call" To Zombified Investors

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Two weeks ago, when looking at the supply-chain crippling consequences of the Coronavirus epidemic, we asked "Is Tech About To Suffer A "Dot Com" Bubble Collapse?" and concluded that "It's now all in China's hands" noting that "...while the market leaders did not disappoint in the last quarter of 2019 when stocks exploded higher with the blessing of the Fed's QE4, what abou...



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Phil's Favorites

Bloomberg Has Built a Star Wars Machine to Try to Steal the Democratic Nomination

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Michael Bloomberg

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is used to getting his way. After serving two terms as New York City’s Mayor as a Republican, he used his own vast stash of cash to repeal term limits and give himself another four-year term, running as an Independent. Now he has promised to do the unprecedented: spend $1 billion of his own money to install himself as President of the United States, running on the Democratic ticket.

Bloomberg’s campaign increasingly resembles an octopus with money gushing out of its tentacles into anything and everything that will inject Mic...



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Insider Scoop

AMX Buys Fellow Alabama Company Powell, Adds Reefer Capacity

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alabama Motor Express will push deeper into the refrigerated business with purchase of Powell Transport Solutions.

The acquisition, announced earlier this week, will bring 35 refrigerated trailers to AMX, the company said in a statement. A spokeswoman for AMX, in response to questions submitted by FreightWaves, said the company's business is currently about 10% refrigerated. The AMX fleet before the acquisition was 210 trailers, she said.

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Biotech & Health

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

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Members' Corner

How to Stop Bill Barr

 

How to Stop Bill Barr

We must remove this cancer on our democracy.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

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The Technical Traders

Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock
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ValueWalk

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) hits an almost one-month high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ad the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, commenting on today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

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While the overnight session was nothing short of scary stocks held on to most of yesterday's gains and small-caps even extended their winning streak. The Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, finishing higher for the fourth day in a row while outperforming the large-cap benchmarks, and since the Volatility...



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Chart School

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.

Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Price May Hit $27K All-Time High By Summer, Predicts Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin is primed for average gains of almost 200% over the next six months, one of its best-known supporters has told mainstream media. 

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

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Funny but probably true:

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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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