Posts Tagged ‘second wave’

Geithner: No ‘Second Wave’ To Crisis

Geithner: No ‘Second Wave’ To Crisis

Courtesy of Mish

USA, Hawaii, Oahu, surf at North Shore

One sure way we know a second wave to the crisis is likely coming is the preemptive denial of it by those who never saw it coming. Please consider Geithner: There Will Be No ‘Second Wave’ Crisis.

"We are not going to have a second wave of financial crisis," Geithner said in an interview with National Public Radio. "We cannot afford to let the country live again with a risk that we are going to have another series of events like we had last year. That is not something that is acceptable."

Geithner, interviewed on NPR’s "All Things Considered" program, rejected the idea that a serious new crisis could be triggered by lingering problems with commercial real estate loans or with a sudden weakening in the value of the dollar.

"We will do what is necessary to prevent that and that is completely within our capacity to prevent," he said.

However, in a separate interview he conceded that it would take several months before the economy yields positive job growth. Job losses have been easing in recent weeks but the economy still saw 480,000 new claims for unemployment benefits last week. That number is expected to shrink just a bit this week.

Geithner on NPR

Inquiring minds might be interested in the complete NPR interview. Please consider Geithner Voices Confidence About Economic Rebound.

Here is the Transcript of the interview with Michelle Norris. Some snips follow …

NORRIS: You know that businesses are spending again. The administration has been asking the banks to try to free up more money for small business in particular. And I want you to help me understand something because on one hand the administration is telling the bankers that they need to take fewer risks, that they need to deleverage, that they need to have higher capital reserve. And at the same time you’re also telling them that they need to lend more money. Those two things don’t seem to square.

Sec. GEITHNER: It is very important that we work with Congress to pass legislation that can put in place financial reforms that can prevent the next crisis. So it’s pretty important in the future we build a more stable financial system. We constrain risk taking in the future. But


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The H1N1 Pandemic: Is a Second Wave Possible?

The H1N1 Pandemic: Is a Second Wave Possible?

Since early November, cases of H1N1 have continued to decline nationwide, and scientists keeping track of the numbers say that as pandemics go, 2009 H1N1 may turn out to be a mild one — at least for the time being.

The question now on health officials’ minds is: Will there be a second wave of cases in the new year? The answer depends on whom you ask. "We took an informal poll of about a dozen of some of the world’s leading experts in influenza," Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told reporters recently. "About half of them said, Yes, we think it’s likely that we’ll have another surge in cases. About half said, No, we think it’s not likely. And one said, Flip a coin."

It is an accurate reflection of how unpredictable the influenza virus can be. Although flu activity has been waning for the third week in a row, health officials warn that there are still four to five months left in the official influenza season, plenty of time for the virus to make its rounds and find new hosts. "The story of pandemics, and the story of H1N1 in general, is the story of persistent uncertainty where we never quite know what we are going to get or when," says Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health.

How severe the current H1N1 pandemic seems depends on what you use as a measuring stick. Compared with previous pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 20 million people and infected up to 40% of the world’s population, or even the far less deadly 1957 and 1968 bouts with a strain of H1N1 influenza similar to the 2009 strain, things don’t seem as bad this time around. Fewer people are getting severely ill when infected, and fewer have died or required hospitalization from the flu than in previous pandemics.

Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health, and his colleagues studied the course of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic last spring in two cities — New York and Minneapolis — and determined that 0.048% of people who developed symptoms of H1N1 died, and 1.44% required hospitalization. Based…
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Half All Mortgage Holders Are Expected To Be Underwater

Half All Mortgage Holders Are Expected To Be Underwater

By Barbara Kiviat, courtesy of TIME

mortgages house loan bank fail crisis
 
amanaimages / Corbis, courtesy of TIME

If you’re not already underwater on your mortgage, there’s a decent chance you will be. According to a new report from Deutsche Bank, up to 25 million American homeowners could eventually owe more than their house is worth. That would account for 48% of all mortgage holders.

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard exceptional numbers on upside-down borrowers. First American CoreLogic figures there were already 11 million homeowners in that position at the end of last year, and Moody’s Economy.com estimates we had reached 15 million by the end of March. The Deutsche Bank projection, the direst so far, assumes house prices nationwide will drop another 14%. (See how Americans are spending now.)

The problem is already a massive one. When the value of a house is less than its mortgage, a homeowner can’t sell and pay off his debt. If a house becomes unaffordable—because of job loss, say, or an adjusting mortgage interest rate—a homeowner is trapped. Academic research shows that underwater borrowers are more likely to default on their mortgage than those with positive equity. (See a chart showing the highest percentage of underwater borrowers.)

The Deustche Bank report adds another wrinkle. So far, the highest rates of underwater borrowers have been found among those people with subprime, Alt-A and Option-ARM loans. These loans, often sold to people with low credit scores or those stretching to be able to afford a house, were largely peddled at the height of the boom, and therefore often correspond to home prices that had nowhere to go but down. However, according to Deutsche Bank’s projections, a second-wave of upside borrowers is about to hit, and this time prime borrowers will account for the bulk. As of the end of March, the bank estimated that 16% of prime borrowers with conforming loans were underwater. By the end of March 2011, some 41% are projected to be. And about half of those are expected to owe at least 25% more than their house’s value.

The "good" news is that the worst of the problem is fairly concentrated geographically. Places where house prices have fallen the most have been hit the worst. That includes areas that saw the wildest speculation and overbuilding—like California,…
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Zero Hedge

Curve Inverts As Traders Brace For J-Hole Surprise; Boeing Propels Dow Higher

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In what was mostly a very quiet day, with traders refusing to trade in size ahead of tomorrow's main event, J-Powell's J-Hole speech, we got a glimpse of what will happen if the Fed chair disappoints the market's expectations for committing to further rate cuts.

After spiking in early trading, stocks slumped to session lows and the VIX jumped back over the key 16 threshold, after Philly  Fed's Harker joined other regional Fed presidents in pouring cold water on hopes for more rate cuts, and instead saying that he expects not to vote for more easing.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Part III - Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-cent...



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The Technical Traders

Part III - Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-cent...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the US Dollar About To Break Out Higher?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The US Dollar Index is flexing its muscle of late.

Trade wars and fear of a global slowdown have capital fleeing to King Dollar.

King dollar breakout test in play?

Looking at today’s chart, you can see that the Dollar has been consolidating in a range for the past year – see shaded area on chart (1).

Now King Dollar is attempting to break out over the topside of that range at (2). That area represents dual resistance, as it also represents the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level.

What it does here could highly impact the financial ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 22, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.36 per share on revenue of $2.29 billion.
  • BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BJ) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.37 per share on revenue of $3.38 billion.
  • DICK'S Sporting Good...


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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Everything awesome? Gold over $1500. Central banks are printing money to generate fake demand. Germany issues first ever 30 year bond with negative interest rate. Crazy times!

Even Australia and New Zealand and considering negative interest rates and printing money, you know a bunch of lowly populated islands in the South Pacific with no aircraft carriers or nuclear weapons. They will need to do this to suppress their currency as they are export nations, as they need foreign currency to pay for foreign loans. But what is next, maybe Fiji will start printing their dollar. 

Now for a laugh, this Jason Pollock sold for more than $32M in 2012. 





Ok, now call Dan...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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