Posts Tagged ‘Shanghai’

Six Fortune 500 Companies including Vale, Walt Disney and Kraft, Move Regional HQ to Shanghai

Six Fortune 500 Companies including Vale, Walt Disney and Kraft, Move Regional HQ to Shanghai

China, Shanghai, Bund, man on promenade taking photograph

Courtesy of Mish

When you have a tax policy that begs corporations to move workers and profits overseas, this is what you should expect: 24 multinationals move HQ to Shanghai

24 multinational companies, have decided to move their regional headquarters to Shanghai, including 6 Fortune 500 companies such as Vale, Walt Disney and Kraft Foods.

This will push the total number of companies with regional headquarters in Shanghai to nearly 300. Nearly 500 have regional research and development centers there.

Shanghai has been China’s top destination, for multinationals. Even during the world economic slump, the city’s foreign direct investment still increased. Data shows Shanghai’s foreign direct investment has already surpassed more than 5 billion US dollars in the first half of this year.

US Tax policy allows deferral of taxes on corporate profits held overseas. Tax policy, in conjunction with global wage arbitrage, practically begs corporations to move jobs and profits overseas.

Meanwhile, small businesses struggling in the US face higher taxes and increased medical expenses thanks to the Obama administration. It’s a lose-lose situation for small businesses vs. larger multinationals.

The worst part of this sorry situation is small businesses are the real economic driver for jobs.

For further discussion of small businesses, job creation, and our inept policies, please see Bleak Outlook for Small Businesses and Job Creation; Where Obama Went Wrong, and What to do About It.

Addendum

A couple people pointed out the word "Regional." Offices did not move out of the US.  

True enough.

However, the likelihood those regional offices are bigger at the expense of US is high, but admittedly there is no way of knowing. However the underlying message on tax policy is valid regardless.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock 


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Ugly 2010 for China’s Stock Market

Collective effort, Ugly 2010 by Rom at Bondsquawk, with introduction by Pragcap:

We’ve often noted the fact that China’s equity market has served as a very reliable leading indicator over the last few years.  They led the way with a dramatic market crash that started in 2007 and they bottomed several months in advance of the 2009 bottom in the S&P.  We recently highlighted the bearish action in Chinese stocks while U.S. investors continued to pile into the S&P (one of three primary reasons we built short positions for the first time in 2 years prior to the recent stock collapse).  Ultimately the market faltered and China’s equity market is once again looking prescient. China is displaying classic post-bubble market action.  Our friends at Bondsquawk ask the important question that should be on everyone’s mind:

"Could the Chinese markets lead the rest of the world back down?"

[BEWARE THE BIG RED LEADING INDICATOR, The Pragmatic Capitalist]

Ugly 2010 for China’s Stock Market

Courtesy of Rom at Bondsquawk

China’s Shanghai Composite Index has led the rally in the global markets after sinking in late October 2008, almost 5 month ahead of the lows seen in the US markets. However, the rally has stalled as China’s equity markets have declined by 20.9 percent in 2010. Could the Chinese markets lead the rest of the world back down?

China’s Shanghai Composite Index 2-Year Historical Chart

The New York Times reported the following:

After a spectacular rise last year, China’s stock market has plummeted on growing concerns about Europe’s debt crisis and expectations that Beijing is about to take strong action to slow the nation’s booming economy and prevent it from overheating, analysts say.

Investors are worried that Chinese exports to Europe will slow in the coming months and that government efforts to tame this country’s economy by tightening credit will hamper a wide array of industries, including the nation’s fast-growing real estate market.

Read the Full Article>>


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New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

No bubble here.  You may need to register with scmp.com to read the entire articles. – Ilene

(Thank you, Terry)

New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

Busy Shanghai street

Mainland banks in Shanghai’s red-hot housing market lent 99.58 billion yuan (HK$113.2 billion) in new mortgages last year, up dramatically from 5.8 billion yuan in 2008, as home seekers rushed to buy and prices hit new highs.

The banks lent 38.93 billion yuan to buyers of new residential properties and 60.65 billion yuan to buyers of second-hand homes, the Shanghai office of the People’s Bank of China said yesterday.

Lending soared more than 1,600 per cent compared with 2008, when the property market and overall economy were hit hard by the global financial crisis, the central bank said.

Full article here.>>

Beofre you start worrying, know this. (Classic Chinese oxymoronic title.)

No sign of bubble despite soaring home prices in Shanghai

Shanghai’s residential market shows no signs of a bubble despite a hefty price increase because demand remains strong, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Price increases "do not mean that the market has reached extreme valuations that typify a bubble", the real estate service firm said in a report yesterday. "Overall, the policy environment will evolve to keep prices from growing too quickly."..

Soaring home prices on the mainland have sparked asset bubble worries among the country’s top leaders, including Premier Wen Jiabao who promised to take action.

According to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services, average housing prices in the city jumped 65.3 per cent last month from a year earlier, hitting a record 20,187 yuan (HK$22,930) per square metre.

Shanghai Securities News reported earlier this month that the mainland would probably start imposing property tax in selective cities this year, a heavy-handed move to cool the red-hot housing market…

More here.>>

And rest assured, the non-bubble is going to be curbed.

Mainland to curb lending binge, says chief regulator

Mainland will slow its massive lending spree and step up monitoring of banks as it tries to prevent speculative bubbles in real estate and other assets while keeping the country’s economic recovery on track, a top regulator said on Wednesday.

Mainland’s banking system is healthy despite last year’s explosive growth in credit and regulators could manage the risks, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission…

After handing out some


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Fall Down Friday for China – Shanghai Down 3%

The Shanghai Composite fell 3% this morning.

That drops them to 328, down from 398 on August first (-17.5%), which is almost a perfect 20% retrace off the run from the last consolidation at 250 in March.  As you can see from the chart, we are about midway between the high for the year and a 50% retrace of the entire run from the bottom at about 280, which happens to be the 40-week moving average.  This is significant in many ways as the Chinese market has been the driver of the global recovery and our global markets (and our local stocks and indexes) are all flying high above their 200 dmas, just about where China was 30 days ago.

I am sorry to be the annoying voice of caution the past two weeks but, when I was a kid, "Spinning Wheel" was a hit song and "what goes up must come down" is etched into some very deep neural pathways in my brain.  We've been using the FXP (ultra-short China) as a cover for almost exactly a month as I had put my foot down when the Shanghai hit 400 and the Hang Seng hit 21,200, up exactly 100% from their November lows.

As David Fry points out in his daily S&P chart, the volume for the days is DOWN volume and, once the sellers get their fill, the auto-bots come out to play and run the markets back up.  I pointed out on Wednesday, close to 40% of the entire volume of the markets is centered around 4 stocks (C, FNM, BAC and FRE).  Throw in AIG's 150M shares and we're getting close to ONE HALF of the total market volume in 5 stocks.

While that may be shocking and ridiculous and has now been pointed out by several analysts, what I'm not seeing discussed is the implication that holds for the rest of the market.  If those 5 stocks are 50% then the market, which is already trading at historically low volumes, is actually trading 50% LOWER than that!  Then we have the well documented indications that GS, CS and a handful of other firms account for 40% of all trading volume.  That means, if GS and other manipulators aren't trading those 5 stocks, then they are accounting for 80%…
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RANDOM THOUGHTS ON MR. BIPOLAR

RANDOM THOUGHTS ON MR. BIPOLAR

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

 


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Fibonnaci Stops Rally in China?

Fibonnaci Stops Rally in China?

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

I asked an online buddy, Jeff over at Zentrader.ca, to post a Fibonnaci chart for Shanghai. For those unfamiliar with the mathematician and how it affects stock trading please see [Aug 5, 2009: Fibonnaci Calls: The 38.2% Retrace is Approaching]

Since the main Chinese market dropped 10% from its high, bounced for 1 day (Thursday), and then fell through the 50 day moving average Friday with another 3% loss, I was curious to see what sort of pullback the Fibonnaci "method" would call for.

$SSEC
My request was not specific enough and he actually posted 2 charts, with some quite amazing results.
Here is the chart I actually had been asking for with my vague request for a Fibonnaci chart… after spiking close to 3500, the 3 levels of retrace would show as below. So "best case" if this works out, from the close of 3047 Friday China potentially has another 8.4% to fall according to the Italian methodology. Obviously the pullback could of be of the 50% or 61.8% varieties as well but we’re looking for "best case".

$SSECThere was nothing amazing about that data… but the other chart he posted, which was not my original request actually makes one shake their head. Remember in that August 5th piece we said the US markets had retraced 38.2% of their 1.5 year drop (October 2007 – March 2008) and it would be a sensible place to pullback if indeed Fibonnaci still rules over HAL9000. Here is what the chart looked like at the time – since then we’ve made a 2nd run at the 38.2% level (1014) middle of last week and then pulled back yet again Friday.

$SPX
Now for the amazing… China pulled back exactly at its 38.2% retrace as well. Compare this chart below to the one above… striking similarity with about a 2 week lag. (note the US chart is a weekly chart, whereas the Chinese chart is daily – hence why the US one is so compressed)

$SSEC
And after the original pullback (see chart at very top of page) China made a 2nd run at…
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Zero Hedge

These International Borders Have Become "No Rights Zones"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

On June 15, 1215, King John sat in a field in Runnymede, England, surrounded by angry nobles.

His Barons - the big landowners throughout England - had rebelled and seized London, forcing King John to sign an agreement guaranteeing certain rights to the people of England... and restrictions of his power.

This agreement was called the Magna Carta. And it would become one of the most important documents in hist...



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Phil's Favorites

The Senate is set to approve it, but what exactly is the Trans Pacific Partnership?

 

The Senate is set to approve it, but what exactly is the Trans Pacific Partnership?

Courtesy of Pat Ranald, University of Sydney

These days it is called the TPP-11 or, more formally, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership.

It is what was left of the 12-nation Trans Pacific Partnership after President Donald Trump pulled out the US, after a decade of negotiation, in 2017.

Still in it are Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam. It’ll cover 13% of the world’s economy rather than 30%.

What’s in it for us? ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities attempting breakout off 7-year support!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Its been a rough 7-years for Agriculture ETF (DBA) as it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows while declining 50% inside of falling channel (1).

The decline this year has it testing channel support of late, where a double bottom might be in play at (2).

The rally of the past couple of weeks has DBA attempting a breakout above falling resistance at (3), while momentum is very low and could be attempting to turn higher.

While DBA is attempting a breakout, yields and Commoditie...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter ...



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Insider Scoop

Carl Icahn Doubles Down On Dell Technologies: 'One Of The Best Opportunities I Have Ever Seen'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Barron's Picks And Pans: Apple, Dell, Netflix, Wells Fargo And More Jim Cramer Gives His Opinion On Mastercard, Dell Tec...

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Digital Currencies

A Wealth Management Point of View on Blockchain and Bitcoin

 

A Wealth Management Point of View on Blockchain and Bitcoin

Courtesy of 

I really had a great time discussing the blockchain, my Bitcoin Maximalism, fear and greed, the future of cryptocurrencies and more with the one and only Anthony Pompliano on his Off The Chain podcast. He’s super sharp and we went into so many great topics – I do regret the thing I said about ghosts and aliens though, that sounded dumb in hindsight.

I ...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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