Posts Tagged ‘S&P futures’

$1,500 Friday – Yesterday’s Futures Play Pays Big!

That's $2,200 in two days playing with us!

Not bad for free picks, right?  On Wednesday, we played the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) short at 4,100 and those gave us a nice, $700 per contract gain in just a few hours.  Yesterday, we reviewed that trade idea right in the morning post (which you can have delivered to you every morning, pre-market, by SUBSCRIBING HERE) and I added:

That's why, today, right now, we are once again shorting the Futures at 17,100 in /YM(Dow) and 2,005 on /ES (S&P) and 1,175 on /TF(Russell).  Yesterday we shorted the Nasdaq(/NQ) at 4,100 – a trade idea I outlined in the morning post for our subscribers – and that trade made $700 per contract by noon.  Not a bad day's work, right?  

SPY 5 MINUTEFutures trading is a useful skill as we can make adjustments to our trading almost anytime we get some new information – even when the market is closed.  

We played bullish on Draghi fever early in the morning and then, in our Live Member Chat Room, at 10:35, we nailed the turn for a re-entry at 1,180 on the Russell (/TF Futures), 17,150 on the Dow (/YM) and 2,010 on the S&P (/ES) as well as $95 on oil (/CL) and we were rewarded with moves down to 1,160 (+$2,000 per contract), 17,025 (+$625 per contract), 1,990 (+$1,000 per contract) and $94.25 (+$750 per contract).  

As I said yesterday, we can make trades like this because the market is RIGGED and we understand how it's rigged, which enables us to play along and profit from the manipulation.  We don't like it, we don't endorse it but, since it happens every day – we may as well bet on it, right?  

Of course there are other ways to make money on pullback and we teach those as well at PSW. Here's a couple of trade ideas we had for our Members
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Thankful Thursday – Janet Does it Again!

INDU WEEKLYThank you Madam Chairwoman!  

Not that Yellen said anything of substance but that won't stop her from saying it again this morning (9:30) so let the rally continue – for another day, at least.  

Yellen made an congressional appearance yesterday, where she argued the economy “needed more help”. She didn’t articulate how the Fed might help given the ongoing taper, although ZIRP would continue for a considerable time which bulls took to mean “indefinitely”.

Oddly she also suggested small cap stocks were near bubble conditions but then said she couldn’t see any bubbles.  All in all, it was the kind of obfuscating testimony that would have made Alan Greenspan proud.

RUT WEEKLYAs Dave Fry notes on his Dow chart, that index is just window dressing for the tourists, with 7 stocks (AXP, CVX, JNJ, MCD, MMM, UTX and V) accounting for ALL of the Dow's gains yesterday in this stupidly price-weighted index.   

The Russell is clearly in trouble and tested that bottom bar at 1,080 again (1,088 was the low) early in the morning and we caught the turn on the nose in our Live Member Chat room, when my 10:25 comment to our Members was:  

Wow, what a ride!  Gotta take some profits off the table on the Futures shorts – people don't like Janet's testimony but she can still pull it out with the Q&A.   /NQ at 3,500 – that shouldn't go down easy.  Actually it's a good bullish bounce play, as is 1,090 on /TF (with very tight stops).  /YM 16,300 is also a good line – go long on the laggard.  

SPY 5 MINUTE

As you can see from the intra-day SPY chart – the timing of that call could not have been better!  The Dow finished the day back at 16,500 and, at $5 per point per Futures contract, that made a $1,000 per contract on that call.  We took $1,000 and ran when the Russell hit 1,100 but then got a chance to reload for a ride to 1,110 later that day (+$2,000 per contract).  


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Market Manipulation On Display

Market Manipulation On Display

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

Rarely does it get this blatant….. this sort of crap goes on every day, but once in a while it’s just "in your face." 

Tonight was one of those examples.

 


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SP Futures Daily Chart and a Brief Note Ahead of the Comex Option Expiry.

SP Futures Daily Chart and a Brief Note Ahead of the Comex Option Expiry.

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The SP is continuing its bounce off the long term trendline for this leg of the bull market in stocks, the result of the reflation effort by the Fed.

Stocks showed some remarkably artificial action last week that was a bit hard to miss.

Similarly, gold and silver continue to rebound from the blatant hammering they took last week as we approach the option expiration at the COMEX. A fellow that trades there said last week that the price would be back over 1200 by Wednesday, and that the option buyers ‘were just asking for it.’

Perhaps they were, but it is the job of the CFTC and the US government to make sure that they don’t "get it," that is, get cheated, at least not that easily, through the obvious manipulation of price which we have seen in the last week. It would be as if the Nevada Gaming Commission allowed false dealing and marked decks to facilitate the casinos cheating their customers, who were dismissed as greedy gamblers anyway. Why this argument is allowed in the financial markets is beyond me.

The sellers are easily identified, as are the sellers of the calls, and the large short interests. This is not rocket science. It is a failure to do one’s job, and uphold their sworn oaths to protect the public. You can judge their motives.

"The government is the potent omnipresent teacher. For good or ill it teaches the whole people by its example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. To declare that the end justifies the means — to declare that the government may commit crimes — would bring terrible retribution."

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis


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Who Is the ‘One Big Bidder’ For US Treasuries?

Who Is the ‘One Big Bidder’ For US Treasuries?

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Portrait of a private investigator

There are a number of possibilities for the identity of the non-primary dealer domestic source of enormous purchases at the longer end of the yield curve in recent US Treasury auctions.

It could be a misclassification, a branch of a bank representing a foreign power. The problem with this theory is that [they] have a particular reluctance to buy the long end of the curve.

It also could be a legitimate domestic purchaser like a pension fund compelled to match duration of obligations, as is required by a little noted ruling of the US government a couple of years ago. They might be shifting out of other long term instruments with similar durations but more risk.

It might even be PIMCO. They certain have the money as the world’s biggest bond fund, and they do offer two Treasury ETF’s which although not directly related to the buys might be relevant on a cross trade. And they have recently been talking down Treasuries in favor of corporates, which doesn’t mean anything since traders often ‘talk their book.’ Still, unless its for the ETF it is hard to justify buying the long durations straight up in size. And while PIMCO says they do not like Treasuries, Benny and the Fed said they are buying long to keep interest rates lower. Why doubt them?

And of course, it might very well be the Federal Reserve Bank, or the Treasury via the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

It could also be the one big bidder who comes in with some regularity and smashes down the price of precious metals with the obvious intent of manipulating the market like clockwork just after the PM fix in London.

It might even be the big bidder who stands ready to buy the SP futures market at every turn, maintaining a floor on the market and a steady drift higher in prices with no change in fundamental underpinnings. Their hand in the market is apparent.

It is less probable, given the state of market manipulation by a few big proprietary trading desks riding another wave of cheap FEd money, but it might even be the party that entered the US equity market yesterday at 12:03 PM with a HUGE order (228,000…
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SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3 PM

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3 PM

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Market volumes are still thin, and driven heavily by momentum traders and Wall Street wiseguys setting up the small specs, looking into what they holding, and then raising them out of their seats on short term spikes and drops.

Today was likely a bit of a letdown on the Fed news, that is, profit-taking, but the dips *should* continue to get bought once the funds sell off dogs into the monthly and quarter close and start window dressing which will likely begin Friday or Monday.

If any exogenous event occurs this market could drop hard and fast because it is all froth, and little conviction. Third quarter earnings *could* look good by comparison, but we have it in the back of our minds that October may be bloody.

Bernanke is disgraceful in his stewardship of the financial system, although it could be argued that he is doing his part, raising liquidity, but Obama and his crew are failing in their task of reforming the system and helping to direct that liquidity into fruitful efforts, rather than bonuses to their patrons on Wall Street.

SP Futures

 


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SP Futures Hourly Chart at Noon

SP Futures Hourly Chart at Noon

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

The "W bottom" worked, and equities blew through the Pivot this morning on ‘better than expected’ housing starts, and a general consensus among the financial spokesmen that the recession is over, although with risks to the downside if stimulus and more importantly monetary support from the Fed, is withdrawn from the financial system too quickly.

Today is option expiration in August. Our high confidence target of 1021 has been met on the chart. Now the market must prove that it can consolidate and move higher.

Our view is that the recession is not over, and that the Fed and Treasury have merely papered over the substantial problems that remain, while alleviating the short term credit crunch issues with absolutely massive injections of liquidity directly into the banks.

Having said all that, stocks can rise without regard to any fundamentals for some time if there is enough will and capital to make it happen. Treasury and the Fed wish this badly because rising stocks will quickly make people forget their mistakes and uneven policy reactions.

Can they do it? We will see. The result *should* be another financial asset bubble at best, a lingering zombie economy very likely at worst.

Should they fail, probably off an exogenous event which can absorb the blame, then the market will fold like an old accordion because there is little commitment underneath it, only paper.


 

 


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SP Futures Hourly Chart

This article was originally posted at Jesse’s Café Américain yesterday.

SP Futures Hourly Chart Updated at 3 PM

Jeese's Cafe AmericainCourtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

See why we put *IF* the neckline is broken on that potential H&S top?

Goldman, Wall Street and their friends in government and the media came out swinging this morning. The SP futures took off from the neckline on some fairly thin rationales, but good enough for an end of month paint job.

This is starting to feel like a real top being formed, with the Wall Street crowd and their demimonde out with the pom poms trying to cheer the institutions and smaller investors with end of month 401k money into the market to buy them out of this anemic rally near a high note.

If you are long or hedged as we are in a paired trade then you are doing all right for a choppy market, and if you are short your timing is probably a little ahead of the market at least, and you are feeding the machine. If you are long and strong, well then, good luck to you.

Be careful. For the longer term this rally appears to be just business as usual into the end of the month with insiders selling vigorously and with a few of the Wall Street crowd front running it with positional and inside information on every turn.

As a reminder watch the VIX and the NDX futures, and perhaps a broader index or two, as well as the SP 500 since those futures are the paintbrush most highly favored by the tape painters.

GDP tomorrow. Who can tell how it will turn out, except to say it will likely be revised. We’ll ignore the headline and look more deeply into the numbers.

S&P futures

 


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Phil's Favorites

So You Wanna Be a Stock Picker

 

So You Wanna Be a Stock Picker

Courtesy of 

The stock market has been a treacherous place for the last few months. You wouldn’t know it by looking at the indexes.

I wrote this opening salvo earlier in the week when the S&P 500 was hovering near all-time highs. This morning, due to a new variant in South Africa, stocks are selling off sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the people’s index, is down over 1,000 points, sitting 5% below the all-time highs from earlier this month.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen these names on the leader and laggard board and I was hoping to never...



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Zero Hedge

"The Omicron Variant" - Magic Pills, Or Solving The Africa Problem?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Yesterday the WHO labelled the sars-cov-2 variant B.1.1.529 as a “variant of concern” and officially named it “Omicron”.

This was as entirely predictable as it is completely meaningless. The “variants” are just tools to stretch the story out and keep people on their toes.

...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far

 

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far Scientists find variants by sequencing samples from people that have tested positive for the virus. Lightspring/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Stellenbosch University; Cathrine Scheepers, University of the Witwatersrand; Jinal Bhiman, National Institute for Communicable Diseases; ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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