Posts Tagged ‘S&P’

What the Market Wants

Here’s the latest "What the Market Wants" from Sabrient’s David Brown. Check out more of Sabrient’s investment resources here.  - Ilene 

 Sabrient Systems

 

June 14, 2010

Support Holds . . . But So Does Resistance
  
by David Brown
Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems, LLC

Since August 2009, with the exception of roughly nine weeks, the S&P 500 has stayed between strong support at 1040 and strong resistance at 1114, and it has been trapped in that range once again for the past month. Earlier today it was close again to testing resistance at 1114, but alas, it failed to break through and dropped back to 1089.

This is likely due partially to the mixed nature of last week’s economic reports.  We had generally weaker-than-expected numbers for pure consumer credit and retail sales, but those were partially offset by a second consecutive week of improvement in initial jobless claims.

The uncertain global picture has stabilized somewhat with some improvement in BP’s handling of the oil spill and considerable stabilization of the euro from its position a few weeks ago.Also, China’s growth seems more certain than a few weeks ago. But mid-session today, there was news that Moody’s had downgraded Greece’s debt rating, and the S&P 500 seemed to lose its resolve to penetrate its 200-day moving average and slipped all the way back to 1089, ending the day with a -0.18% loss. 

On the corporate front, reports are now few and far between but those we’ve seen have still been generally equal


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Silver Charts and a Look at the SP 500 Long Term Cash Chart

Silver Charts and a Look at the SP 500 Long Term Cash Chart

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

Several readers have asked for thoughts on the silver charts.

Silver normally functions as both a monetary and an industrial metal. This provides it with a higher beta (risk variation both on the upside and downside) than gold, and a stronger correlation to the SP 500.

So if one is looking at silver, one first has to ask, what do we think the SP 500 will do next, and then, what will gold do next?

SP 500 Long Term Cash Chart

The SP 500 is at a point where it will either find a footing and break back high according to its longer term bull trend, undoubtedly with serious assistance from the monetary authorities and their banking cohorts, or it will break down further and activate a more serious decline and a H&S topping pattern.

My bias now is for further weakness to the downside, possibly even a false breakdown, and then we will look for the turnaround to gain traction IF volumes remain light and there is no panic selling.

If there is a further decline, let’s see if it can hold the 1000 area where there is a long term bottom of the bull trend channel.

Silver Daily Chart

In the short term silver appears to have further downside. How much is a very open question.

If and only if the SP 500 falls out of bed and there is a general liquidation of assets, silver may trigger a short term H&S top and fall down to the target area in green. There it is likely to be a singularly attractive trading buy, but we would have to look at the overall market landscape and the Fed’s monetary actions.

Silver Weekly Chart

The weekly chart appears much stronger than the daily chart, suggesting that if there is a breakdown it might be short term, and look much worse on the daily chart, an intra-week spike down on the longer term chart. Again it is hard to say because the SP 500 is such an important variable in this.

I doubt very much that silver and the SP 500 will diverge. Gold however is more likely to diverge from stocks if it comes to that.

I have some confidence in Ben’s and Timmy’s willingness to sacrifice…
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Market Club Videos

Market Club Videos: S&P, Gold, Euro 

By Adam Hewison at Market Club

Clapper Board

S&P Sell Signal 

It’s been a little over a year since we had our first major buy signal for the S&P 500 at 888.70 on 5/4/09. Since that time, the S&P 500 has climbed approximately 61.8% from the lows in early March of ’09.

Our "Trade Triangle" technology gave a sell (5/25) at 1044.50, our first major sell signal since 7/1/08 at 1,272.00.

Watch our S&P VIDEO update here>>

There are a whole host of problems around the world that will have negative consequences for the equity markets. The problems in Greece and Europe are well known and are likely to continue for the balance of the year. This is going to have a negative impact on markets in general.

In my new short S&P 500 video, I share what I think is going to happen to the S&P 500 market and just how you can protect yourself if we are correct. As always our "Trade Triangles" will dictate all market action. At the present time all of our "Trade Triangles" are negative and pointing to the downside. This indicates that a very strong trend is in place and it likely to continue.

Many traders, especially younger traders, are unaware of how bear markets work. Bear markets tend to be demoralizing as they do not have any strong and sustained rallies. They tend to erode as more and more traders become unnerved and throw in the towel.

We are back in the gold market.

After exiting all long positions at 1217.72 on 5/18, we reinstated long positions seven days later on 5/25 at 1196.57.

handing bars of gold up a ladder

As many of you know who watch my videos, we use our weekly "Trade Triangles" for trend…
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S&P VOLUME IS RISING – WHAT IS THIS TELLING US?

S&P VOLUME IS RISING – WHAT IS THIS TELLING US?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

By Data Diary:

It’s been notable that volume has been stepping higher on the S&P500:

SnP500 price and volume 400x252 S&P VOLUME IS RISING   WHAT IS THIS TELLING US?

Volume peaks tend to be associated with short to medium bottoms in the index.  Similarly, troughs in volume often signal some kind of top.  Or course this relationship doesn’t always hold – a wicked example being that 2008 price avalanche where volume peaked around 8bn shares per day and then thrashed around below that level until the March 2009 floor was eventually reached.

Still is there some significance to the recent rise in activity?  Some thoughts for your consideration…

1) It’s a ‘reversion to mean’ volume – While it’s incredible (and clearly unsustainable) that volume increased over 20% per annum since the beginning of 2004, the question remains what is the underlying trend in daily volume.  On a trend basis we may still be south of that level.

2) Buy the dip – the risk compression trade is alive and well and about to enter it’s next phase.  This would have more credibility in my book if risk appetite had also blown out already.  It hasn’t.

VIX Credit spreads1 400x247 S&P VOLUME IS RISING   WHAT IS THIS TELLING US?

Credit spreads in Europe may have dissolved in a gelatinous mess, but the US credit markets remain blase about this state of affairs.  Similarly, the VIX has sprung to life but not nearly enough to signal that we are in a renewed bout of risk aversion. The relative calm can be seen a little more clearly via our risk appetite index:

Risk appetite index1 400x246 S&P VOLUME IS RISING   WHAT IS THIS TELLING US?

As an indicator, we would normally expect the index to have dipped towards -2% before the ‘panic’ volume spike was upon us.

3) Risk aversion is on the rise  - My best guess is that the rising volume is part of a change in trend – that’s it’s more likely to represent distribution than accumulation.  Witness the Merrill Lynch hedge fund position report (via Market Folly) suggesting that funds have been reducing their equity exposure. If this is the case, then it’s likely that there are a few even higher volume days in the wings. 

 


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SP Futures Daily Chart

SP Futures Daily Chart

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

Different Day, Same Drill.

Neither snow, nor rain, nor weaker than expected ADP reports shall keep these bubbles from their appointed highs and the end of month paint job.

It will be interesting to see how the trade goes tomorrow with traders squaring up for a three day weekend.
 

 

 


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STAT OF THE DAY: 93% OF ANALYSTS EXPECT S&P TO RALLY HIGHER

STAT OF THE DAY: 93% OF ANALYSTS EXPECT S&P TO RALLY HIGHER

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

As if sentiment wasn’t already starting to get a bit too bullish!  The latest compilation of analyst estimates and year-end targets is now calling for substantially higher earnings and equity prices.  Of the 13 major banks, JUST ONE (Andrew Garthwaite of Credit Suisse) is calling for the S&P 500 to finish the year below the current level.  We’ve covered Garthwaite’s full year outlook and it’s very much in-line with our own – a relatively robust first half and a dicey second half.  On the other end of the spectrum is Binky Chadha whose price target sits at 1325.

Firm                 Strategist           2010 Close   2010 EPS
===============================================================
Bank of America      David Bianco           1,275       $75.00
Bank of Montreal     Ben Joyce              1,225       $74.50
Barclays             Barry Knapp            1,210       $71.00
Citigroup            Tobias Levkovich       1,175       $76.50
Credit Suisse        Andrew Garthwaite      1,125       $77.00
Deutsche Bank        Binky Chadha           1,325       $80.80
Goldman Sachs        David Kostin           1,250       $76.00
HSBC                 Garry Evans            1,300
JPMorgan             Thomas Lee             1,300       $81.00
Morgan Stanley       Jason Todd             1,200       $77.00
Oppenheimer          Brian Belski           1,300       $76.00
RBC                  Myles Zyblock          1,225       $76.00
UBS                  Thomas Doerflinger     1,250       $81.00
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mean                                        1,243       $76.82
Median                                      1,250       $76.25
High                                        1,325       $81.00
Low                                         1,125       $71.00
 

Source: Bloomberg 


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Bubble-nomics: SP and Nasdaq Straining at Resistance And the Remnants of Fear

Bubble-nomics: SP and Nasdaq Straining at Resistance And the Remnants of Fear

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The SP is trying to break out of the trend and hold it’s gains. I would not get in front of this, unless you wish to guarantee an opportunity for an additional short squeeze. Remember, the wiseguys can peek into your collective hand at will, and read your strategy within milliseconds of your executing it. That is why playing short term trends is becoming increasingly difficult for the individual speculator.

It is useful to watch the Nasdaq 100 at key support and resistance levels, as well as the broader indices. The SP futures are generally the ‘push’ where the flash and sizzle of bull markets occur of late. Buying the futures drags much of the market behind it. But this can only last for so long unless additional ‘real’ buying steps in.

Formidable retracement. Now the rally must show its mettle and either confirm an economic recovery or the start of a new bubble led by financial assets, or not.

Little pricing in of fear, but the markets remain thin and a bit uneasy.

The Dollar is hanging on to support.
 

 


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Market Club’s Monday Outlook

Market Club’s Monday Outlook

Via Market Club’s Adam Hewison 

S&P 500a. Sneak Peek At The S&P 500

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital. 

While the S&P 500 made new highs for the year last week, it did not do so in a very convincing manner. In today’s short video I show you some of the elements that I think should be cause for concern.

S&P 500 VIDEO HERE.>>

b. Is The US Dollar Reversing Again? 

The euro/dollar relationship may be reversing again based on recent price action. In today’s short video on the euro/dollar, I point out some of the changes we see happening in this market.  

Watch the EURO/DOLLAR VIDEO HERE.>>

c. GOLD

And lastly, let’s see what’s happening with GOLD. 

The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub’s daily "Trade Triangle" technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.

The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we’ll see further selling on any rallies from this level.

In today’s video, I share with you my thoughts on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.

More on GOLD HERE.>>

 


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FABER: S&P COULD DECLINE 20% FROM HERE

FABER: S&P COULD DECLINE 20% FROM HERE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Marc Faber is reiterating his negative equity market outlook in a phone interview with Bloomberg today.  His comments mirror much of what the brilliant Jeremy Grantham said in his recent market outlook – the market is overbought, overvalued, and the real economy remains weak.   He says the market could decline to S&P 920:

“The market has become overbought.  There isn’t a meaningful improvement in the economy taking place. The economy may disappoint somewhat in the next few months. The statistics that are being published are very questionable. The economy has stabilized, but isn’t really expanding.”

“With unemployment staying at a relatively high level and with the revenue side being weak, I don’t think that corporate profits will be that great in 2010.  Basically, the profits have been boosted by aggressive cost-cutting. The revenue side of corporations is weak.”

Faber goes on to explain that expectations are running hot now and could be well ahead of the fundamentals:

“This year, investors will never achieve returns as high as in 2009. Stocks are relatively high compared to the fundamentals.”

Faber views the recent downturn in financials as a shot across the market’s bow:

“Financials have already been quite weak.  It’s kind of a warning sign for the market. They may weaken further, especially the banks. Also commodities-related stocks could weaken somewhat as commodity prices ease.”

But that doesn’t mean stocks will go down all year.  Faber sees a Spring rebound:

“Usually March, April are seasonally strong months.  We’ll get a rebound. In general, high-quality and large market capitalization stocks are reasonably priced considering you have zero interest-rates. As these markets go down, the high-quality, large-market-cap stocks will go down less than the smaller-cap stocks.”

In last week’s Barron’s Roundtable, Faber expressed his negative views on the full year outlook.  He says he wouldn’t be shocked if the market closes lower on the year due to complacency:

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the market closes down this year. There is a lot of complacency among investors, and geopolitically, the world looks horrible.” 


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The Last Charts of the Decade!

OK, I got a new toy today so I’m going to put up some charts!

Rather than my usual spreadsheets, I thought a visual representation of what I think is going on would be appropriate.  So far this week, we have failed to break my levels, which were predicted by our own 5% rule way back in July.  I don’t have a drawing tool for the 5% rule but I’ll try to give you an idea of what I see when I look at a chart, now that I can capture them for you.

First of all, let’s look at the S&P, which the analysts are ga-ga over as they make a 50% retracement of the March dive:

Notice the 50% mark is right about our 1,127 watch zone but we didn’t get 1,127 from that spot, we calculated 1,127 as it was a 30% move off the real floor of 867, which is our 5% rule drop.  The 5% rule sensibly tells us to throw out spikes and, while it’s hard to think of a 3-month, 200-point drop as a spike, in the grand scheme of things it still is.  Here’s how the same Fibonacci series looks if we take 867 as a bottom, rather than 666:

Not quite as impressive a recovery is it?  Do you see how the adjusted chart makes far more sense on the way down – with support at the 61.8% line, then at the 50% line and then clearly at 0.  The big difference is, in my view of the action, it has been an easy slog to make the effectively dead-cat bounce back to 38.2%.  This recent action proves nothing as we have yet to test 1,135, which should provide heavier resistance.  It’s going to be a long time before we do a "life cross" (where the 50 wma moves above the 200 wma) so that 1,220 mark is going to weigh very heavily in the future as well, probably all the way into August before the S&P is ready to make a real move up (assuming we don’t fall down in between). 

Running the same series on the Dow, we get this:

Of course the problem with the Dow is that the Dow we have now is NOT the same Dow that fell last year.  We jettisoned GM and C for CSCO and TRV – a very good trade
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Zero Hedge

Real-Time Data Shows That After Peaking In Late June, Consumer Spending Is Now Declining

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

When we last looked at real-time consumer spending data one month ago, we saw a stunning rebound in Bank of America credit and debit card spending trends, with total card spending ex-autos essentially recovering pre-covid levels by early June.

No doubt, a big part of this was due to the surge in Per...



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Phil's Favorites

Actually, Mr Trump, it's stronger environmental regulation that makes economic winners

 

Actually, Mr Trump, it's stronger environmental regulation that makes economic winners

Courtesy of Ou Yang, University of Melbourne

Donald Trump has ordered US federal agencies to bypass environmental protection laws and fast-track pipeline, highway and other infrastructure projects. Signing the executive order last month, the US president declared regulatory delays would hinder “our economic recovery from the national emergency”.

Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement for international climate action in 2017 for the same reason. The accord, ...



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ValueWalk

Steve Cohen Alum Profits From Markets Driven By "15 Million New Robinhood Accounts"

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Michael Zimmerman’s Prentice Capital returned 3% in June, taking its year-to-date performance to 18.6% net of fees and expenses, according to the firm’s June investor update, a copy of which ValueWalk has been able to review.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Prentice Capital Benefits From "15 Million New Robinhood Accounts"

Prentice Capital employs a low net equity long/short strategy with a specific focus on the U.S. consumer sector, which has recently performed better than the wider market.

For more up-to-date hedge fund content, and exclusive acc...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus's painful side effect is deep budget cuts for state and local government services

 

Coronavirus's painful side effect is deep budget cuts for state and local government services

Washington state cut both merit raises and instituted furloughs as it faced a projected $8.8 billion budget deficit because of the coronavirus. Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Carla Flink, American University

Nationwide, state and local government leaders are warning of major budget cuts as a result of the pandemic. One state – ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Red Hot China Attempting Key Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

China ETF (FXI) has been “Red Hot” of late? Is it about to run out of steam or will it remain on fire going forward?

This chart of FXI comes from Investors Business Daily and Marketsmith.com. It reflects that FXI is above key long-term moving averages and its RS ratings is moving sharply higher of late.

Line (1) has been support and resistance several times over the past 3-years. The rally of late has FXI ...



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The Technical Traders

Retail Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High-Risk Assets Again

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Yes, we certainly live in interesting times.  This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020.  If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.

On May 24th, 2020, we published this ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

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Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 07:49:29 PM

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Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s



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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.