Posts Tagged ‘SWY’

Bearish Bets On Safeway Pay Off As Stock Tumbles After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: SWY, CAKE & CSTR

SWY - Safeway, Inc. – Shares in the food and drug retailer are trading down sharply on Thursday, falling more than 18% to $23.14 during the first half of the session, after the company posted first-quarter revenue that missed analyst estimates. At least one trader who appears to have purchased front month put options on Safeway on Wednesday afternoon is benefitting from the double-digit percentage declines in the price of the underlying today. The largest increase in put open interest on SWY yesterday was the 4,566-lot jump in the number of open contracts at the May $26 strike. It looks like most of the $26 puts were purchased at a premium of $0.40 each. Traders long the contracts are benefitting from Safeway’s pain today, with premium on the $26 puts up more than six-fold at $2.55 apiece as of 11:55 a.m. in New York. Today, some options players appear to be nibbling at Safeway calls to position for the shares in Safeway to rebound somewhat in the near term. Traders picked up around 1,400 calls at the May $24 strike for an average premium of $0.94 apiece and may profit at expiration in the event that shares rally 7.8% over the current price of $23.14 to top the average breakeven point at $24.94.

CAKE - Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – Options traders who initiated bullish bets on Cheesecake Factory yesterday ahead of the restaurant operator’s first-quarter earnings release are enjoying sizable gains in the value of their positions today, with shares in the name up nearly 9.0% in the early going to touch an all-time high of $41.02. Trading traffic in the May $38 and $39 strike calls picked up speed yesterday just before 12:15 p.m. ET. It looks like one or more traders snapped up around 320 of the $38 strike calls at an average premium of $1.13 apiece, and roughly 400 of the $39 strike calls for an average premium of $0.77 each. The value of these contracts are up sharply,…
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Safeway Options Pop After Kroger Co. Report; Bulls Take To Healthcare Calls

 

Today’s tickers: SWY, THC & LNCR

SWY - Safeway, Inc. – Options trades initiated on grocery store chain operator, Safeway, Inc., this morning suggests predictions regarding the performance of the stock over the near- and longer-term are mixed. Shares in the second-largest U.S. grocer are up 2.1% at $18.02 just after midday, rising in sympathy with Kroger Co., which reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, announced board approval of a $1 billion stock buyback program, and raised its full year earnings forecast. Safeway’s shares have been hard-hit in 2012; touching down at $17.53 yesterday, the lowest year-to-date price for the stock. However, the purchase of some 1,000 calls at the July $19 strike for a premium of $0.30 apiece may mean some traders are keeping an eye on the stock’s upside potential. Call buyers may be prepping for SWY shares to rebound should the company report better-than-expected second-quarter earnings on July 19th. Traders long the calls profit if shares in SWY rally another 7.1% to top $19.30 at expiration next month. Meanwhile, activity in longer-dated December expiry puts points to possible weakening in the price of the underlying in the second half of the year. It looks like one trader purchased a block of 2,000 puts at the Dec. $16 strike for a premium of $1.15 apiece. The options may represent an outright bearish bet that the stock has further to fall, or could be a hedge to protect the value of a long position in the underlying shares. The long puts make money, or yield downside protection, come expiration day should shares in SWY plunge 17.6% from the current price to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $14.85.

THC - Tenet Healthcare Corp. – A large block of call options purchased on health care services provider, Tenet Healthcare Corp., this morning suggests one strategist may be positioning for shares in the name to extend recent gains. Shares in THC received a boost earlier…
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Options In Focus At Coinstar As Shares Hit New Highs

 

Today’s tickers: CSTR, BCS & SWY

CSTR - Coinstar, Inc. – Shares in the provider of coin-counting and Redbox self-service kiosks are bucking the trend today, surging as much as 13.7% during the session to hit a new all-time high of $69.74, after the Company raised its 2012 earnings forecast. The down-day for U.S. equities has taken some of the wind out of Coinstar’s sails this afternoon, though the stock continues to trade 7.6% higher at $66.00 as of 12:25 p.m. on the East Coast. Options on the kiosk provider are far more active than usual, with volume up above 16,000 contracts in early-afternoon trade, versus the stock’s 90-day average volume of 2,012 contracts.  Trading patterns are mixed, but there are some strategists positioning for the rally to continue next week. Out-of-the-money calls in the front month attracted bullish bets, with more than 2,060 contracts changing hands at the April $70 strike against 1,720 open positions. The $72.5 strike calls expiring next week traded more than 540 times, with much of the volume initiated by buyers shelling out an average premium of $0.44 apiece this morning. Traders long the $72.5 strike calls profit at expiration in the event that shares jump 10.5% to surpass the average breakeven price of $72.94. Barring that move, call buyers lose the full amount of premium paid if the options are out-of-the-money at April expiration.

BCS - Barclays PLC – Put options on Barclays are more active than usual, with shares in the financial services provider sliding 4.1% to $13.74 by midday in New York. The stock joined in on the broad market decline, pulling back on European concerns, China’s GDP reading and U.S. consumer confidence data, to snap the three-day rally in equities. The heaviest action in BCS options is in the…
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Ratio Put Spread Pops Up On Safeway

 

Today’s tickers: SWY, GM & PGR

SWY - Safeway Inc. – The North American retailer of groceries and consumer products reports fourth-quarter earnings five weeks from today, and it appears one options player may be locking in gains in Safeway’s shares should investors lose their appetite for the stock following the report. Shares today rose 1.25% to a six-month high of $21.82, on the heels of a more than 35.0% rally since the end of September. The largest transaction in Safeway options today was the one-by-two ratio put spread initiated in the March expiry in the first half of the trading session. It looks like the investor responsible for the spread purchased 4,100 in-the-money puts at the Mar. $22 strike for a premium of $1.09 each and sold 8,200 puts at the lower Mar. $20 strike at a premium of $0.37 apiece. Net premium required to establish the trade amounts to $0.35 per contract. The sale of twice as many lower-strike put options greatly reduces the cost of the directional play and suggests the investor expects limited bearish movement in the price of the underlying rather than a nosedive in the next couple of months. Profits – or downside protection – kick in if shares in Safeway decline 0.80% to breach the effective breakeven price of $21.65, while maximum possible gains of $1.65 per contract result in the event that shares drop 8.3% to settle at $20.00 at expiration in March.

GM - General Motors Co. – Shares in General Motors are up 0.80% at $24.70 after the Company revealed it sold 9.03 million vehicles globally in 2011, which could earn the Detroit, Michigan-based Company the title of world’s largest automaker by unit sales. One sizable options strategy on GM this morning…
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First-Mover Advantage Big for NYX Call Buyers Acting Before Trading Suspended

Today’s tickers: NYX, ATML, JCP & SWY

NYX - NYSE Euronext Inc. – Investors observed buying up call options on the global group of exchanges before trading in the name was halted this morning, are sitting pretty this afternoon with NYX shares trading up as much as 19.7% at a new 2-year high of $39.99. Reports that NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse AG were in advanced talks to merge, lifted NYX shares before trading was suspended earlier in the session. Early-birds speculating that the rally was just getting started scooped up some 830 calls at the February $35 strike for an average premium of $0.56 each. These calls now tout an asking price of $3.65 apiece, an increase in value of around 550%. Other bulls picked up more than 2,600 calls at the higher February $36 strike for an average premium of $0.26 per contract this morning. The now deep in-the-money call options now cost $2.36 each, which is 808% more than first-movers paid earlier today. Investors who purchased the calls could potentially walk away with huge profits by selling the contracts in the span of just a few hours. Trading in NYX call options picked up significantly once trading in the name resumed. News of the merger-talks and rising demand for NYX options fueled a more than 53.1% rise in options implied volatility on the stock to 37.48% by 12:35pm in New York.

ATML - Atmel Corp. – The semiconductor manufacturer popped up on our scanners this morning after one trader reeled in profits on the sale of large block of call options that were originally purchased during the first week of trading in 2011. The same strategist extended and augmented bullish sentiment on Atmel Corp. by picking up calls in the May contract. Shares in Atmel are currently up…
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McKesson Calls Active Ahead of Earnings After the Bell

 Today’s tickers: MCK, SWY, EXM & CVLT

MCK - McKesson Corp. – Bulls are buying up call options on the drug and medical supplies distribution company today ahead of the firm’s third-quarter earnings report after the final bell. Shares in McKesson are currently up 0.50% to stand at $74.52 as of 12:25pm in New York. More than 5,800 calls have changed hands at the February $75 strike on paltry previously existing open interest of just 819 contracts at that strike. Investors taking bullish positions on McKesson ahead of earnings purchased more than 5,000 of the calls for an average premium of $1.45 per contract. Call buyers stand ready to make money should shares in the name rally another 2.6% to surpass the average breakeven price of $76.45 by February expiration. McKesson Corp.’s shares, which rallied up to $75.49 last week, have not traded this high since 1999. Options implied volatility on McKesson is up 13% at 26.23% in early afternoon trade ahead of earnings this evening.

SWY - Safeway Inc. – Activity in near-term put options on the food and drug retailer today suggests some investors expect shares in Safeway to rebound ahead of February expiration. Shares are up 1.25% at $20.77 just before 12:45pm in New York, but are down roughly 13.45% since November 5, 2010. Safeway will reveal its performance for the fourth quarter before the opening bell tolls on February 24, 2011. Bullish players appear to have sold the majority of the 18,500 puts that have changed hands at the February $20 strike on open interest of 1,595 contracts for an average premium of $0.20 each. Put sellers keep the full premium received on the sale as long as shares in Safeway exceed $20.00 through expiration day next month. More than 3,750 in-the-money put options changed hands at the higher February $23 strike on previously existing open interest of just 6 contracts. It looks like nearly 2,000 of the put options sold for an average premium of $2.57 a-pop. Investors selling the puts…
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September’s Dozen Update

It's only been three weeks but it's time for an update!

Back on the 3rd, I had said: "Let’s take a look at a quick dozen trade ideas for short-term gains.  I like all these stocks long-term too (it’s always better to play short-term where your fallback is you own the stock long-term) but we haven’t been doing much gambling lately as it’s all been boring-old hedged positions that were smart, but not really giving us that immediate satisfaction you can get from some quick, monthly gains."

And what a month it's been, a dozen stocks, about 30 different trade ideas and we're already up to our 50% and 100% goals on most of the shorter-term ones.  The longer-term positions are mostly looking good and we have hedged to cover them but let's go over each postiion to make sure it's worth keeping.   I already called an out on HMY as they poked through $11.50 the other day but that was a directional trade (the October $10s) that was already up 133% and one thing we're not is greedy, right? 

HMY was the only trade that was a pure short-term, directional trade.  Virtually every othe stock had longer components and that's where our decision-making process comes in.  I went over the logic of each entry in the original post and I won't rehash it here as we'll just look over the possible trade adjustments and decide what looks good to keep and what to cash.  For purposes of this discussion, we'll use this multi-chart which indicates the 20 (blue) and 50 (red) dma:

So, how worried are we?  We picked these stocks based on fundamentals.  As you can see, they certainly didn't have any upward momentum on Sept 3rd!  It should be no surprise that they outperformed as the market rose 10% for the month but the question we have to ask now is: How comfortable do we feel about holding them through a downturn?  One of the reasons we us disaster hedges and short-term hedges is that, rather than just feel compelled to cash out as we hit resistance on our positions, we now have a cushion that we can sit back and CALMLY observe how our stocks handle a market pullback

BRCM

  • Sept


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Testy Tuesday – Fed Pop or Drop?

Isn't this exciting? 

We popped all of our 5% levels yesterday, now all we have to do is hold them and we can start looking ahead to the 10% lines.  Just 10 days ago, on Friday the 10th, we did our last multi-chart study and I said in the morning post: "I am not TA guy but If I were a bear, I’d be pretty darned concerned about the charts as it looks to me like the 20-day moving averages are registering a short-term mistake in a generally rising trend."  Look at how those 20 dma's have snapped up in less than 2 weeks (blue lines are mid-points, green circles are 5% levels):

So Gold and Transports are running away with SOX falling behind.  We've been playing the SOX up with USD, which is up 10% since I picked it in that Friday's post but that's been a relative underperformer for us as we nailed the bottom with a buying frenzy into the late August drop which culminated with my very bullish "September's Dozen" from the 3rd.  There were actually 10 stocks and only 9 fit in the multi-chart (I dropped HMY, who already gained 15%) with way more than a dozen trade ideas for our Members to take advantage of the anticipated short-term moves.  Of the 10, only IRM has been laying around but we weren't expecting a quick move on them and played a conservative April spread and took the risk on Oct $22.50 calls, which are our only loser, down 30% at .20 but I still like them if we break up from here.  

The leverage you can gain with option plays is truly stunning.  On BRCM, for example, the trade idea was a straight purchase of the Sept $32 calls for $1.25, BRCM topped out at $35.49 with the calls close to $3 on the 14th and they expired on Friday at $2.16, which is up 72%, even for people who didn't stop out between there and up 140% that Tuesday.  That trade was a combo trade with the sale of the October $30 puts at .70 and those are down to .30 (up 57%) which are well on their way to expiring worthless for a full 100% gain.  We also took an artificial buy/write that stretched from Jan to Jan 2012
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September’s Dozen (Members Only)

Not bullish enough?

Let's take a look at a quick dozen trade ideas for short-term gains.  I like all these stocks long-term too (it's always better to play short-term where your fallback is you own the stock long-term) but we haven't been doing much gambling lately as it's all been boring-old hedged positions that were smart, but not really giving us that immediate satisfaction you can get from some quick, monthly gains.

Are these trades riskier?  Sure they are and they are trade ideas under the assumption that we hold our levels today and next week so no staying in them if the market sours but $75 oil and $3.40 copper and 2,200 on the Nas and 1,088 on the S&P give us some pretty easy markers to know if we're still healthy. 

BRCM is my first choice, they are down $5 from the July high and just crossing over the 200 dma at $32.66, which is an excellent line to play the straight stock bullish.  The 50 dma is falling at $34.69 so we want to beware that the run ends there.  They are on track to earn $2.65 this year and that's a p/e of 12.3, which is crazy-low for a stock like this so a great long-term hold:

  • Sept $32 calls at $1.25 have .54 in premium with 2 weeks to go so it's .05 per day to "rent" the stock.
  • Oct $30 puts can be sold for .70 to fully offset the calls or by themselves or a 1/2 sale to knock down the premium.
  • Jan $30/34 bull call spread at $2.15, selling 2012 $22.50 puts for $2 is net .15 on the $4 spread that's $2.71 in the money to start.

TRLG is back near it's post-crash lows.  The company has been building inventory and that freaks out investors but they are also opening stores in London and Tokyo and they just made a deal in German to expand distribution with an existing partner so I don't mind a little stocking up.  P/E around 10 means they are not priced for growth and teen fashion is fickle but I like the stock above the $17.50 line (now $18.75).

  • Selling Apr $15 calls for $1.50 is very attractive as I'd be inclined


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Bulls Go Bananas for Chiquita Call Options

Today’s tickers: CQB, BX, BAC, SWY, LLY, NFLX, MHS & UPS

CQB – Chiquita Brands International, Inc. – Shares of the marketer and distributer of bananas and other fresh produce surged 5.2% this afternoon to an intraday high of $12.68, giving bullish players a healthy appetite for call options on the stock just one week before the firm is slated to report second-quarter financial results. Chiquita Brands International popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after investors coveted approximately 2,900 calls at the now in-the-money November $12.5 strike for an average premium of $1.52 a-pop. Call buyers make money if, by expiration, Chiquita’s shares jump 10.6% over today’s high of $12.68 to trade above the average breakeven point to the upside at $14.02. CBQ shares last traded above $14.02 back on June 15, 2010, but traded as high as $16.84 on April 26, 2010. Investors long the calls are well positioned to accumulate significant profits should the price of the underlying shares rebound to the value recorded at the end of April.

BX – The Blackstone Group LP – Activity observed in LEAPS on the global asset manager and provider of financial advisory services suggests one strategist expects Blackstone’s shares to rise significantly by expiration in January 2012. BX’s shares are up 3.9% at $10.71 as of 3:15 pm (ET), but earlier increased as much as 5.00% to secure an intraday high of $10.83. It looks like the investor enacted a three-legged bullish transaction, selling put options to partially finance the purchase of a debit call spread. The trader sold 4,700 puts at the January 2012 $10 strike for premium of $2.30 each, purchased 4,700 calls at the January 2012 $10 strike at $2.60 in premium apiece, and finally sold 4,700 calls at the higher January 2012 $17.5 strike for a premium of $0.40 a-pop. The transaction yields a net credit of $0.10 per contract, which is safe in the investor’s wallet as long as Blackstone’s shares trade above $10.00 at expiration day. Additional profits accrue above a share price of $10.00, with maximum potential profits of $7.60 per contract available to the trader if the price of the underlying stock jumps 63.3% to trade above $17.50 by expiration day in January 2012. Bullish trading in options on the world’s biggest buyout firm arrived after the release of its second-quarter earnings report before today’s open. The company…
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Phil's Favorites

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Zero Hedge

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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