Posts Tagged ‘TIN’

Optimism Detected In Plum Creek Timber Options Despite Earnings Miss

Today’s tickers: PCL, XLE, TIN & AEM

PCL - Plum Creek Timber Co., Inc. – Seattle, WA-based Plum Creek Timber Co. posted lower-than-anticipated second-quarter net income of $0.27 a share after the close on Monday, missing average the average analyst forecast of $0.29 a share to send the price of the underlying down as much as 4.2% today to $38.75. Put options on Plum Creek are active post-earnings, but it looks like much of the volume was generated by investors taking long-term bullish views on the stock. Trading traffic in PCL options is heaviest at the Jan. 2012 $38 strike where more than 2,700 puts changed hands against previously existing open interest of just 65 contracts. The majority of the puts exchanged at that strike appear to have been sold at an average premium of $2.32 per contract. Put sellers keep the full amount of premium received on the transaction as long as shares in Plum Creek Timber exceed $38.00 through expiration day in January. Traders short the puts have time erosion working in their favor, and may also benefit from subsiding levels of options implied volatility on the stock. Investors likely expect shares to resist above $38.00 over the next six months, but stand ready to take delivery of the stock at an effective price of $35.68 a share, on average, should the puts land in-the-money at expiration next year.

XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund – Massive prints in September contract call options covering the Energy SPDR appear to be the work of an investor adjusting a previously established bullish position on the sector. Shares in the XLE, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, turned positive this afternoon to trade 0.10% higher on the day at $79.50…
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Value of Large Temple-Inland Call Spread Pops Post-IP Takeover Attempt

Today’s tickers: TIN, CA, CTRP & VPRT

TIN - Temple-Inland, Inc. – Just under two weeks ago we made note of a sizable bullish transaction on Temple-Inland in which one strategist purchased a call spread in the January 2012 contract to position for a huge rally in shares of the corrugated packaging producer by expiration. As it turns out, the run-up in the price of the underlying stock arrived far sooner than predicted by the spread, with shares soaring 42.6% at the start of today’s session to an intraday- and multi-year high $29.97 following a hostile $3.31 billion takeover offer from International Paper Co. The bullish investor paid a net premium of $1.10 per contract back on May 25 – when shares in TIN were trading around $22.81 – for the 6,425-lot Jan. 2012 $25/$30 call spread. Call open interest at these strikes indicates the trader is still holding on to the position. To purchase the same Jan. 2012 $25/$30 call spread in the aftermath of the takeover bid, one would need to shell out a net premium of $3.70 per contract at present, which is $2.60 per contract more than the investor paid less than two weeks prior. Meanwhile, options traders taking to Temple-Inland today are focusing their attention on nearer-term contracts. Frenzied put selling is taking place at the June $29 strike where it looks like at least 6,500 puts sold for an average premium of $0.17 each. Traders short the puts keep the full amount of premium received on the transaction as long as shares in TIN exceed $29.00 through June expiration. Approximately 9,100 puts appear to have changed hands at that strike against zero open positions as of 11:45am in New York. Temple-Inland’s overall reading of options implied volatility is currently 32.8% lower to arrive at 23.76%.…
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Strangle-Strategist Targets Boeing

Today’s tickers: BA, CSCO, TIN & TEVA

BA - Boeing Co. – Boeing’s shares may be headed for the stratosphere or ready to crash and burn over the next few months according to the buyer of a sizable long strangle on the producer of commercial jetliners today. Shares in the Chicago, IL-based company are up 0.90% at $76.27 in early-afternoon trade, recovering up from earlier losses following disappointing April durable goods data. The strangle-strategist it seems is at least looking for implied volatility on the stock to climb if not the actual price of the underlying shares. The trader purchased approximately 7,500 calls at the August $85 strike for a premium of $0.56 each, and purchased the same number of puts at the August $65 strike at a premium of $0.88 a-pop. Net premium paid to initiate the strangle amounts to $1.44 per contract, thereby preparing the trader to make money should the stock swing sharply in either direction away from the current price. Profits are available on the upside at expiration if the stock is trading above the upper breakeven point at $86.44, while profits on the downside require shares trade below the lower breakeven point at $64.56 at expiration. Boeing’s shares would need to jump 13.3% higher, or drop 15.4%, from the current price to break-out of either point in the next few months. But, as mentioned previously, the stock need not move at all for the buyer of the strangle to benefit from the position. What is required are rising expectations of turbulent days ahead for BA’s shares, in other words, higher implied volatility. The combined value of the call and put options should increase if implied volatility on Boeing climbs going forward. The investor may be able to sell the strangle ahead of expiration for more than the $1.44 per contract required to purchase the position today given favorable moves in the level of volatility on the stock. Boeing reports second-quarter earnings on July 27 ahead of the opening…
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Zero Hedge

Shocktober: Stocks Suffer Worst Pre-Election Plunge In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Hunt for a Red October is over... must be the Russians...

Global stocks suffered their worst week since March as it appears the constant liquidity pukage is losing its impact...

Source: Bloomberg

And US stocks (down 6-7% across the board) also saw their biggest weekly drawdo...



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ValueWalk

Mixed Trick or Treat Bag for US Retailers this Halloween

By Refinitiv. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As a result of the coronavirus restraining normal activities, including traditional Halloween events, such as trick or treating and costume parties, retailers are feeling the pinch of a scary Halloween season.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

In collaboration with StyleSage, Refinitiv reviews this year’s Halloween discounts and consumer purchasing behavior in the report: It’s a Mixed Trick or Treat Bag at Hallowee...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are the S&P 500 Index and Crude Oil Peaking Together Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The price of crude oil has been an important indicator of the economy for quite some time. When oil is in demand and performing well, the economy likely is. And when oil is not performing well, the economy likely isn’t either.

Taking this one step further, it’s easy to see how crude oil can be a solid indicator of the stock market as well.

Often times, investors receive a bearish or bullish message from this relationship. In today’s chart 2-pack, we illustrate how the relationship between the S&P 500 Index and the ...



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Phil's Favorites

Despite Its Five Felony Counts, the Federal Reserve Has Entrusted $2 Trillion in Bonds to JPMorgan Chase

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Imagine that your neighbor across the street had been criminally charged with five felony counts for financial crimes in the past six years and admitted to committing each and every crime to the U.S. Department of Justice. Would you put one-third of all of your money in a safe, give that neighbor the combination, and ask him to hold the safe in his house for you? You would probably be suited up for a straight jacket if you did something like that.

That’s effectively what the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, has done when it comes to JPMorgan Chase. As of this past Wednesday, the Fed ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Achieving COVID-19 herd immunity through infection is dangerous, deadly and might not even work

 

Achieving COVID-19 herd immunity through infection is dangerous, deadly and might not even work

Under relaxed public health restrictions, deaths will spike far before herd immunity is achieved. AP Photo/Mark Lennihan

Courtesy of Steven Albert, University of Pittsburgh

White House advisers have made the case recently for a “natural” approach to herd immunity as a way to reduce the need for ...



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Chart School

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Courtesy of Read the Ticker

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Date Found: Monday, 18 May 2020, 03:35:21 AM

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Comment: Ooh so pretty, so pretty, ooh so!



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Comment: Charlie Lee: All Things Litecoin (#MimbleWimble, ...



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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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