Posts Tagged ‘Trade’

Oxen Pick (SHORT SELL): LUV

Courtesy of David at The Oxen Group

Oxen Pick (SHORT SELL): LUV

The Oxen Group is looking for a short sell on Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) tomorrow. The market may move green or red, and it really comes down to Bank of America, Citigroup, and GE. Those three giants release earnings tomorrow. If all three are splendid, the market will really take off, even Southwest Airlines.

The issue for Southwest is that even if that does occur, this stock is going to come down. In after hours today, Moody’s Investor Ratings commented that they were putting LUV on a possible credit downgrade due to the weak demand and market for airfare. The airline industry has been struggling, but Southwest Airlines always seems to be a step in front of the competition. This news of a likely downgrade spells bad news for Southwest, especially because the stock has really no upside right now.

What will Southwest do?  If the market is looking to trend down after the earnings reports, LUV will drop right away and continue to trend down on a red day. If, however, the market jumps out of the gate and looks bullish, LUV will most likely have some type of small gains into the day, but it will not be able to sustain those gains and move backwards. Further, one has to wonder even if the earnings are positive, how much more this market has to go with four straight days in the green and a lot of quickly overvalued stocks. Additionally, if CIT goes bankrupt it could add more fuel to a downward market. LUV technically is, outside of its upper bollinger band, way overbought. So, its technicals all point towards downward movement.

Entry: Recommend selling 15-30 minutes into session if earnings are good, right away if bad. 
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all entry in prices
Upper Resistance: 6.60 (lower)
Oxen Rating*: 5

 

 


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China: Economic Catastrophe Unfolding

China: Economic Catastrophe Unfolding

china real estateBy Terence Doherty, guest author

Here’s some recent news about the real estate markets in China. I think it is fascinating watching how these things unfold. This proves once again that the lesson of history is that we don’t learn the lessons of history.

I predicted over 2 years ago that the Chinese stock markets would implode dramatically, much to everybody’s disbelief and skepticism. It began a few months sooner than I thought, but, that is exactly what has happened. Now for the last year or so, I have predicted that things will get VERY bad in the Chinese real estate markets over the next several years. Again, most people I have talked to about this (especially Chinese) have almost universally dismissed this notion as absurd.

But this is not just a guess.  When you read these articles, you will see just some of the evidence that leads me to this conclusion. There are a lot of data on this, and most of it comes from statistics issued by various Chinese government agencies. But it is not advertised by the mainland press or TV.   So, many Chinese are not at all aware, and think that everything will soon be wonderful, because that is pretty much what they constantly hear from the official media.

That is one thing I noticed immediately about China: there is a constant barrage everywhere you turn—-TV, advertisements, magazines, newspapers, billboards, etc.—-that essentially suggests that everything is wonderful and getting more wonderful all the time, and everybody is just happy, happy, happy, and China is getting better and better and stronger and stronger.  I was really struck by this. It was like living in a never-ending infomercial. Maybe some go to China and are not very aware of this, but to me it was like a constant din.

Actually, at least some of this data is readily available on the mainland. But it requires digging.  The official news agencies like Xinhua and the People’s Daily just keep repeating the same mindless mantra in endlessly varying ways every day: “Everything is good, there are only a few small little problems, but the Motherland is unstoppable and will just get mightier and mightier.” If the Falun Gong would just chant that mantra, they would get to keep their organs and they would have no more problems in China. 

 

 

The news here…
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Pick: Ultra Proshares Oil and Gas ETF (DIG)

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Pick: Ultra Proshares Oil and Gas ETF (DIG)

Courtesy of David at the Oxen Group 

DIG - Oxen TradeThe Oxen Group, for Thursday, is optimistic to hope for a good day from the market. Too many red days even in a bearish trend, means a correction every few days. Tomorrow, futures are already up as investors may be getting excited about jobless claims, which have been bullish for the past few weeks. Additionally, Research in Motion will be releasing earnings that are expected to be very positive for the tech sector and TARP paybacks were successful.

The market is due for a fundamental correction, as there are some bargains presenting themselves again. One of these is oil, oil service companies, and oil ETFs. After oil prices have slipped, with a late small gain today, oil may be ready for a move on Thursday. Gasoline wholesale prices have continued to slip, which is signalling a pullback in gas prices. Further, oil may get a boost from a very bullish Chinese inventory announcement that shows the Chinese economy is pumping again, helping to increase oil prices in the Asian market. We like Ultra Proshares Oil &Gas (DIG) to rally, with major holdings in Exxon and Chevron, which have both been hit with losses for the past four days. DIG has lost 13% in the past four days and moved down too quickly, presenting an opportunity for money to pour into the stock. If jobless claims are bullish and gas prices rescind, investors will push this stock up as inventories really did not get a chance to increase the oil market, which was a bullish indicator. Oil looks ready to rise, therefore, BUY DIG!

Entry: Recommend buying within first 10-25 minutes.
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Upper Resistance: 30.50

David’s Oxen Trade Results:

Date  


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Wednesday – What Color Is Your Beige Book?

The Fed's Beige Book comes out at 2pm today.

Our last Beige Books came out Jan 14th (down 250), March 4th (up 100 ahead of huge drop) and April 15th (up 100) so we are anxious to hear what the Fed has to say today in their anecdotal report of economic conditions through the end of May.  On May 20th we had Fed minutes and the market didn't like that one bit. so let's hope they've cheered up since that last meeting.

Oil has cheered up, hitting $71.50 in pre-market trading.  All of our indexes are flying as Asian trading rocketed higher on a RUMOR that China's Friday Industrial Production Report rose 8.9% in May and Tomorrow's  Fixed Asset Investment Report will rise 37% for the month.   This came from the Ming Pao Daily, who cited "unnamed market sources."  This information is stunning, especially in light of the ACTUAL PPI falling 7.2% for May and the ACTUAL CPI, that showed a 1.4% decline but, since we have long ago entered the "no thinking zone" (in fact, on Mad Money yesterday, Cramer made fun of us for thinking!), so happy rumors trump ugly facts every time.

Perhaps it's true, perhaps China did increase Industrial Production 9% while driving input costs down 7% during a month when commodities rose over 20%.  If so, all the more reason the Republicans should shut up and let us go Communist ASAP because those guys REALLY know how to get things done!  We're already giving them Hummer and it's very likely, by 2011, we'll be importing 2M Electric Hummers a year from China.  Boy that joke will be on us, right? 

[The hidden costs of China stimulus charts]China is leading the global stimulus bandwagon, of course with a massive increase in debt financing this year.  "There is no such thing as a free stimulus package. There is a huge amount of unreported government debt, and we're adding to it now clearly," said Stephen Green, an economist for Standard Chartered in Shanghai.

The stimulus package in China is working so well that there is now a 2-month wait to buy a car in China as direct subsidies and a cut in retail taxes has pushed millions of…
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Phil's Favorites

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

 

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

It is critical to learn more about SARS-CoV-2, including its source and why transmission appears to be more efficient than with previous coronaviruses. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Marc-Antoine De La Vega, Université Laval

With an increasing number of confirmed cases in China and 24 other countries, the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus (now known as SARS-CoV-2) looks concerning to many. As of Feb. 19, the latest numbers listed 74,280 confirmed cases including 2,006 deaths. Four of these de...



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Biotech & Health

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

 

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

It is critical to learn more about SARS-CoV-2, including its source and why transmission appears to be more efficient than with previous coronaviruses. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Marc-Antoine De La Vega, Université Laval

With an increasing number of confirmed cases in China and 24 other countries, the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus (now known as SARS-CoV-2) looks concerning to many. As of Feb. 19, the latest numbers listed 74,280 confirmed cases including 2,006 deaths. Four of these de...



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Members' Corner

Why do people believe con artists?

 

Why do people believe con artists?

Would you buy medicine from this man? Carol M. Highsmith/Wikimedia Commons

Courtesy of Barry M. Mitnick, University of Pittsburgh

What is real can seem pretty arbitrary. It’s easy to be fooled by misinformation disguised as news and deepfake videos showing people doing things they never did or said. Inaccurate information – even deliberately wrong informatio...



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Zero Hedge

Easily Overlooked Issues Regarding COVID-19

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World,

We read a lot in the news about the new Wuhan coronavirus and the illness it causes (COVID-19), but some important points often get left out.

[1] COVID-19 is incredibly contagious.

COVID-19 transmits extremely easily from person to person. Interpersonal contact doesn’t need to be...



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The Technical Traders

Gold Rallies As Fear Take Center Stage

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Gold has rallied extensively from the lows near $1560 over the past 2 weeks.  At first, this rally didn’t catch too much attention with traders, but now the rally has reached new highs above $1613 and may attempt a move above $1750 as metals continue to reflect the fear in the global markets.

We’ve been warning our friends and followers of the real potential in precious metals for many months – actually since early 2018.  Our predictive modeling system suggests Gold will rally above $1650 very quickly, then possibly stall a bit before continuing higher to target the $1750 range.

The one thing all skilled traders must consider is the longer-term fear that is build...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Precious Metals Eyeing Breakout Despite US Dollar Strength

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold and silver prices have been on the rise in early 2020 as investors turn to precious metals as geopolitical concerns and news of coronavirus hit the airwaves.

The rally in gold has been impressive, with prices surging past $1600 this week (note silver is nearing $18.50).

What’s been particularly impressive about the Gold rally is that it has unfolded despite strength in the US Dollar.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of Gold to the US Dollar Index. As you can see, this ratio has traded in a rising channel over the past 4 years.

The Gold/US Dollar ratio is currently attempting a breakout of this rising channel at (1).

This would come on further ...



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Insider Scoop

68 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Trans World Entertainment Corporation (NASDAQ: TWMC) shares climbed 120.5% to $7.72 after the company disclosed that its subsidiary etailz entered into a deal with Encina for $25 million 3-year secured revolving credit facility.
  • Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLDX) fell 39.8% to $3.1744. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on Celldex Therapeutics with an Overweight rating and a $8 price target.
  • TSR, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSRI) gained 36.2% to $8.17.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 02:18:22 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Wall of worry, or cliff of despair!



Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 06:54:30 AM

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Comment: Interesting.. Hitler good for the German DAX when he was winning! They believed .. until th...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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