Posts Tagged ‘Trader’s Narrative’

Reflections On Market Sentiment

Reflections On Market Sentiment

Courtesy of Mish

Trader’s Narrative has some interesting charts and commentary about market sentiment which suggests a great deal of bullish complacency among the bulls and resignation for the bears.

Here is one of the charts from the article.
 

click on chart for sharper image

Both of the popular weekly sentiment surveys are in agreement showing an extremely bullish mood, which should make any contrarian stand up and take notice. It now stands two standard deviations below its 1 year average. The AAII weekly sentiment survey of retail investors in the US has only 23% bears and a whopping 49% bulls. The AAII ratio hasn’t been this lopsided since May 2008 when the S&P 500 topped out at 1440.

Similarly, the Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter editors has plumbed new depths from last week and reached a new record. We haven’t seen this few bears in 22 years! The II finished off the year with only 15.6% of editors looking forward to lower stock market prices and 51.1% optimistically looking forward to the continuation of the rally.

The keepers of the Investors Intelligence survey, Mike Burke and John Gray, believe that while “some additional gains may occur in the near term, stocks may peak in the first quarter of next year and correct from there.” Smoothing out the weekly results with a 10 week average of the bulls divided by the bulls and bears shows that the market is overbought by 71% – the last time it was at similar lofty levels was back in late July 2007.

There are three other charts in the article and much more analysis. Inquiring minds may wish to take a look.

My friend "BC" who sent me the link writes "Today’s increasingly bullish sentiment is consistent with a B (or 2) wave, which would imply a setup for the most destructive (for financial wealth and confidence) phase of a C-wave decline, lasting 2-3 years. "

What "BC" is describing is similar to the sucker bounce in the early 1930 after the stock market crash of 1929.

I am pleased to inform that "BC" has partially come out of the closet. He is now blogging anonymously at the Economics of Oil Empire and Peak Oil blog.

Here is a link to his post


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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID - new study

 

Here’s where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID – new study

VGstockstudio/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Trish Greenhalgh, University of Oxford; Jose-Luis Jimenez, University of Colorado Boulder; Shelly Miller, University of Col...



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Zero Hedge

Will The Market Flip Green This Week? Here Are The 15 Things On Goldman's Checklist

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Goldman's flow trader Scott Rubner called the year-end meltup and Santa Rally with perfect accuracy, although his call for a continuation of the meltup into January and the new year has so far proven painfully wrong. And with sentiment imploding over the past three weeks, turning from euphoric to cataclysmic in just a matter of days, it is hardly surpris...



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ValueWalk

These Are the Ten Best Performing Options Trading Funds

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Mutual Funds typically invest in stocks and fixed-income securities. However, there are funds that, along with investing in such securities, may also invest in derivatives contracts such as options and futures. Such types of investing allow funds to hedge their risk, and for investors, it helps them to diversify their portfolios. Let’s take a look at the ten best performing options trading funds.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Ten Best Performing Options Trading Funds

We have referred to the last one-year return numbers (from ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq Weakness Has Bears Circling Tech Stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One theme over the past several months has been tech stock’s under-performance. And 2022 seems to be amplifying this theme as we kick off the new year.

Today’s chart focus is on the ratio of the Nasdaq Composite to the S&P 500 Index. We have shared this ratio a few times recently as the price pattern has become a concern.

As you can see in the chart, there’s a potential that the ratio double topped last year at the 2000 highs. And weakness this month has it attempting to break dual support at...



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Politics

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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