Posts Tagged ‘traders’

Presenting The TVIX: A Double Leveraged VIX ETF

Courtesy of Tyler DurdenPresenting The TVIX: A Double Leveraged VIX ETF

Ever feel like this market just does not provide enough unique and suicidal ways for you to lose your hard stolen money within nanoseconds of trade execution? Never fear – here comes the TVIX, a levered third derivative bet on volatility: simply said, the TVIX will be the world’s first double leveraged VIX ETF. According to the ETF creator, VelocityShares, "the TVIX and TVIZ ETNs allow traders to manage daily trading risks using a 2x leveraged view on the S&P VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index and S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures™ Index, respectively, while the XIV and ZIV ETNs enable traders to manage daily trading risks using an inverse position on the direction of the volatility indices. The indices were created by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a division of the McGraw Hill-Companies, Inc." Then again, why not just call these what they are: a novel way (brought to you via the synthetic CDO legacy product known as ETFs) to lose money with a 99.999% guarantee. As always, we wonder why anyone would trade this product, when, with much better odds, one would at least get comped in Vegas…

Here is the full product suite about to launched by Credit Suisse.

One has to love the fine print:

The ETNs, and in particular the 2x Long ETNs, are intended to be trading tools for sophisticated investors to manage daily trading risks.  They are designed to achieve their stated investment objectives on a daily basis, but their performance over longer periods of time can differ significantly from their stated daily objectives.  Investors should actively and frequently monitor their investments in the ETNs. Although we intend to list the ETNs on NYSE Arca, a trading market for the ETNs may not develop. 

In this case, and as in everything else related to the market, our advice is stay away from these synthetic contraptions which are merely CDOs (and now CDOs cubed) for public consumption. On the other hand, we can’t wait for someone to finally release an ETF or any other mechanism, that allows for the simple shorting of GM stock. 


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IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The most recent commitment of traders report (courtesy of Sentiment Trader) shows a massive short accumulation in the Nasdaq 100.  If you look at past occurrences their market timing has been fairly good.  The current net short position is almost twice as large as any occurrence in the last 5 years.  Is the dumb money on the wrong side of the trade or are the institutions about to become fuel for the next leg up?


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With Stocks, It’s Not the Economy

Decoupling between stock prices and the domestic economy – and Zachary Karabell explains why he believes this trend will continue. – Ilene 

With Stocks, It’s Not the Economy

By Zachary Karabell, courtesy of TIME 

 

Illustration by Harry Campbell for TIME

From the beginning of May until late June, stock markets worldwide declined sharply, with losses surpassing 10%. The first weeks of July brought only marginal relief. Ominous voices began to warn that the weakness of stocks was a direct response to the stalling of an economic recovery that has lasted barely a year. Anxiety over debt-laden European countries — most notably Greece — combined with stubbornly high unemployment in the U.S. to create a toxic but fertile mix that allowed concern to blossom into full-bloom fear.

The most common refrain was that stocks are weak because global economic activity is sagging. A July 12 report by investment bank Credit Suisse was titled Are the Markets Forecasting Recession? With no more stimulus spending on the horizon in the U.S., Europeans on austerity budgets and consumer sentiment best characterized as surly, the sell-off in stocks was explained as a simple response to an economy on the ropes. 

It’s a good story and a logical one. But it distorts reality. Stocks are no longer mirrors of national economies; they are not — as is so commonly said — magical forecasting mechanisms. They are small slices of ownership in specific companies, and today, those companies have less connection to any one national economy than ever before.

As a result, stocks are not proxies for the U.S. economy, or that of the European Union or China, and markets are deeply unreliable gauges of anything but the underlying strength of the companies they represent and the schizophrenic mind-set of the traders who buy and sell the shares. There has always been a question about just how much of a forecasting mechanism markets are. Hence the saying that stocks have…
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Trader Takeaways for Obama’s Oval Office Address

Trader Takeaways for Obama’s Oval Office Address

Courtesy of Joshua M BrownThe Reformed Broker 

WASHINGTON - APRIL 05: With his daughter Sasha Obama (C), 8, and Malia Obama (L), 11, at his feet, President Barack Obama reads 'Green Eggs and Ham,' by Dr. Suess, during the Easter Egg Roll at the White House April 5, 2010 in Washington, DC. About 30,000 people are expected to attend attended the 132-year-old tradition of rolling colored eggs down the South Lawn of the White House. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Updated: an absolute joke.  More about confiscation than anything else.  No silver linings or potential prosperity to be found in this bad situation.  Now we’ll get a few more bureaucracies – one commission to figure out the cause of the spill and another to administer relief money from BP.

Nobody wins here right now, and The Great Orator offered little in the way of solace to the stricken.  Also, there was not much in the way of progress for alternative fuels.  No natural gas mention, just more nonsense about wind energy and other Dr Seuss-ian fantasy fuels.

Good luck putting a sail on an 18 wheeler.  Whatever, Barack.  Go back to bed.

***

The guys down here are only interested in a few items out of President Obama’s Oval Office Address this evening.

1.  Rhetoric:  As we speak, Transocean ($RIG) is up over 7% having lived through a "month without a bottom".  BP ($BP) is green as well, staying above the $30 mark.  These stocks are anticipating less talk about "ass-kicking" and a more constructive discussion on liability and some clarification on the offshore drilling moratorium.

2.  Natural Gas:  Will he or won’t he?  Obama’s been in the tank with the fictitious "Clean Coal" consortium since day one, but a couple of weeks back he finally mentioned natural gas in a positive light.  Nat gas and its related stocks have been on fire for days going into this.  Even the radioactive Nat Gas ETF whose name must not be spoken has been rallying.  Hard.  Based on the single stock price action I’m seeing, the traders are betting that Obama mentions nat gas as a viable alternative fuel.

3.  The Dividend:  Will the US government continue its mission to make all decisions for private companies?  Will the Prez weigh in on whether or not BP "has the right to pay a dividend?"  If so, the ramifications could be significant (read: not so cool).

Anyway, these are the items me and my guys are listening and watching for tonight.  How about you? 


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DOJ Antitrust Division Considering Launching Investigation Into Silver Market Manipulation By JPM

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Eric King reports the breaking news that in a letter obtained by Ted Butler, the DOJ’s Antitrust department is considering launching an investigation into silver market manipulation by JP Morgan. Should an announcement of a full formal probe of manipulation by JPM follow, it would be tantamount to a confirmation of what numerous individuals have been claiming over the years, that JP Morgan, the LBMA, the CFTC, various banks, and even that kindly old grandpa who was so much against derivatives except when he was about to lose money as a result of regulation that he is spending the whole weekend telling his investors in Omaha to run, not walk, to Borsheim’s, and buy all their massively overpriced trinkets (you can’t be a quadrillionaire without first being a trillionaire), are nothing but a borderline criminal cabal that traffics in wealth extraction courtesy of a few monopolist players. As Eric King discloses in its letter the Anti-Trust division announces that "it will carefully consider the issue of silver market manipulation by JP Morgan and other traders. Generally the CFTC investigates these types of market manipulations. However, the suggestion that JPMorgan Chase may be signaling other traders, warrants further analysis. The DOJ will carefully consider the issue you raise, and you can be assured that if we conclude that silver traders have engaged in anti-competitive conduct, we will take appropriate enforcement action."

Ted Butler, always cutting to the point, says: "It’s about time a major government organization stepped up to end what has been a very serious crime in progress that has basically covered two decades…[JP Morgan's] level of concentration only exists in the silver markets. Concentration is the hallmark of manipulation or a monopoly. Our markets are supposed to be free markets, they are not supposed to be controlled by anybody. Right now the silver market is a monopoly, the chief monopolist is JP Morgan, and the only entity that can step up to JPM is the Antitrust division of the DOJ…If you want to put it into perspective, more important and more serious than what is currently happening with Goldman Sachs. This is a crime in progress, this is an allegation of current market manipulation. This is as serious as you get. You don’t get bigger than market manipulation."

And, as a scheduled daily reminder to Christine Varney: if you are evaluating JP Morgan…
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U.S. Stocks: Will The Bears Relinquish Control?

U.S. Stocks: Will The Bears Relinquish Control

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International, by Nico Isaac

In case you were hiding out Tiger Woods’ style far away from the mainstream media during the past month, let me be the first to say: January saw an abrupt end to the U.S. stock market’s record-setting winning streak. Last count, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 4% in its worst monthly loss in a year.

Close-up of a businessman making a face in front of a telephone receiver

And, according to one Feb. 1, 2010, MarketWatch story, "The time to consider an exit strategy" has officially arrived. Here, the article captures the public’s astonishment turned acceptance of the Dow’s boom-to-gloom shift:

"The Dow has shocked the bulls out of their complacency. After all, analysts were looking for the bull market to last until at least the second half of the year. Investors were not prepared for such a sharp decline and now at least some of the chatter has gone from ‘how high will the market go?’ to ‘how low will it fall?’ [emphasis added]"
Let me get this straight. The powers that be say it’s time to "consider an exit strategy" — AFTER the Dow has already plunged 700-plus points to land at its lowest level in two months. That’s about as helpful as building a life raft AFTER your ship has begun to sink.

Let me get this straight. The powers that be say it’s time to "consider an exit strategy" — AFTER the Dow has already plunged 700-plus points to land at its lowest level in two months. That’s about as helpful as building a life raft AFTER your ship has begun to sink.

Those same sources go on to say investors were "not prepared" for the degree and depth of the stock market’s decline. This is only partly true. On Main Street, the early January flood of bull-is-back-type headlines gushed in and washed all the bears away.  Yet, on our "Elliott Wave" Street, preparation for a "sharp" decline in the Dow was in place. One week before the market turned down from its Jan. 19 high, Elliott Wave International’s Short TermUpdate went on high bearish alert with this note:

"a trend reversal is fast approaching. A potential stopping range is 10,725-10,740. A close beneath [critical support] will confirm that the diagonal is over and the market has started a down phase that should draw prices significantly


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EUR/USD: What Moves You?

EUR/USD: What Moves You?

It’s not the news that creates forex market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news.

Courtesy of EWI’s Vadim Pokhlebkin

What moves currency markets? "The news" is how most forex traders would undoubtedly answer. Economic, political, you name it — events around the world are almost universally believed to shape trends in currencies.

A January 14 news story, for example, was high up on the roster of events that supposedly have a major impact on the euro-dollar exchange rate. That morning, the European Central Bank announced it was leaving the "interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1% for an eighth successive month." (FT.com)

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar after the news. But could it have rallied instead? You bet. In fact, traditional forex analysis says it should have. Here’s why.

Analysts always say that the higher a country’s interest rates, the more attractive its assets are to foreign investors — and, in turn, the stronger its currency. Well, U.S. interest rates are now at 0-.25% and in Europe, at 1%, they are 3 to 4 times higher. Isn’t that wildly bullish for the EUR? Apparently not, and wait till you hear why — because in today’s announcement ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet warned that European recovery would be “bumpy.” Ha!

By no means is this the first time a supposedly bullish event failed to lift the market. On June 6, 2007, for example, the ECB raised interest rates. Bullish, right? But the euro didn’t gain that day, either — the U.S. dollar did.

Watch forex markets with these "inconsistencies" in mind and you’ll see them often. In time you realize that it’s not news that creates market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news. That’s a subtle — but hugely important — distinction.

So the real question becomes: What determines how traders interpret the news? The Elliott Wave Principle answers that question head-on: social mood — i.e., how they collectively feel. Currency traders in a bullish mood disregard bad news and buy, leaving it to analysts to "explain" why. Bearishly-biased traders find "reasons" to sell even after the rosiest of economic reports.

If you know traders’ bias, you know the trend. How do you know? Watch Elliott wave patterns in forex charts – it’s reflected in there, on all time frames.

Today, the EUR/USD stands well below its November peak
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Low Volume When The Market Rises Strongly

Low Volume When The Market Rises Strongly

Courtesy of Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges

I showed yesterday how a very-low volume day during a decline can often lead to a short-term reversal. Today I will review a study that first appeared in the blog on 5/13/2008. It looks at extremely low volume on strong up days – like Monday. (Volume studies typically use the symbol $TVOL in Tradestation, which is their measure of NYSE volume. This is what is being used in the below study.)

low volume rises in SPX
[click on table to enlarge in a new window]

We’ve seen several studies like this over time and many of them were identified by the Quantifinder on Monday. With so many studies confirming each other, it seems the downside edge in these very low volume rises is for real. One caveat with Monday’s action though is that it was Yom Kippur, meaning a lot of traders were out of action and somewhat lower volume could be expected. Still, it’s been a steady enough edge that I decided to it was worth review.

 


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Wells Fargo Shareholders Ignore Gloom And Doom Reports

Wells Fargo Shareholders Ignore Gloom And Doom Reports (WFC)

well fargo

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock

Over the past week there’s been a lot of talk about Wells Fargo (WFC) and whether it mistakenly swallowed a hand-grenade when it bought Wachovia late last year.

So how’s the market reacted? Mostly ignoring it. In the middle of last week the stock took a hit, but it’s only back to where it was 5 days ago, and certainly the hit has been nothing of the scale you’d imagine if the bank were really in so much trouble.

At this point, we’re inclined to believe the market, which in the past has done a pretty good job of sussing out the banks that are in trouble. That the market isn’t freaked out by a few articles speaks volumes.
 

wellschart.png

 

See also:

Sanford Bernstein: You Are All Wrong About Wells Fargo (WFC)

Did Wells Fargo’s Auditors Miss Repurchase Risk? (WFC)

 


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OIL UP TO THE EYEBALLS

Must see video. Stephen Schork – oil "coming out the wazoo," – a repeat permformance of last year, high prices the justification for high prices, another mini bubble. – Ilene

OIL UP TO THE EYEBALLS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

If you can tell me where the price of oil is going in the next few weeks I’ll tell you where the S&P is going.  Stephen Schork believes oil is heading to $85 if we settle over $75.  Unfortunately, the fundamentals say the price of oil should be $50.  Schork is short-term bullish, but long-term bearish.

 
 

 


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Zero Hedge

Cord Cutting Apocalypse: More Households Now Subscribe To Streaming TV Than Cable

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

American consumers are plagued with First World problems. There appear to be too many online streaming platforms for consumption. The average consumer now subscribes to three streaming video services, and for the first time, more households are subscribing to streaming TV than to traditional cable, according to a new report from Deloitte.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Federal Regulator: Wall Street Stock Trading Plunged 88.6 Percent in Q4

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal regulator of national banks, which includes the largest banks on Wall Street, quietly issued its quarterly report on trading in cash instruments and derivatives on Friday. The report contained a shocker: stock (equity) trading had plunged 88.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 versus the fourth quarter of 2017 on a consolidated basis at the bank h...



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ValueWalk

Micron this week was the poster child for this "bull-trap" lunacy

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

From Crescat Capital

Thursday had the feel of a blow-off top for the bear market rally. We are near historic valuations for US stocks across at least eight fundamental measures and at a record late stage in the business cycle. Equity markets appear more stretched relative to underlying deteriorating fundamentals than ever.

Micron this week was the poster child for this “bull-trap” lunacy. Investors bid Micron’s stock up 10% on Thursday after the company released earnings. The move sent the semiconductor index to a record high on Thursday. The truth was that Micron gave terrible forward guidance on the conference call forcing analysts to slash estimates for revenues, earnings, and free cash flow for 2019 and 2020.

Friday the market start...



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Chart School

Palladium Action Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Palladium is near its peak, or at least a consolidation. Russia and South Africa are the producers of palladium, and it looks like Putin has been able to play US Futures market for a lot of Russia gain! Which metal is next?


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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

NYSE Index Suggesting The Top Is In, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a very broad stock index suggesting that a top is in play? What this index does to close this week should go a long way to answering that question!

This chart looks at the NYSE Index on a weekly basis over the past 4-years. Over the past 15-months, it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of the shaded falling channel. It hit strong support around Christmas at (1) and a counter-trend rally started. The rally now has it testing the top of the falling channel at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- The NYSE index could be cre...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Buckingham cut the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE: TRN) from $32 to $26. Trinity Industries shares closed at $22.96 on Thursday.
  • Canaccord Genuity lowered the price target for Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) from $396 to $275. Biogen shares closed at $226.88 on Thursday.
  • H.C. Wainwright cut the price target on Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CNAT) from $8 to $1.50. Conatus Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $2.91 on Thursday.
  • Wedb...


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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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