Posts Tagged ‘Trading 201’

Can Money Supply Tell Us How the Funny Money Rally Will End?

Can Money Supply Tell Us How the Funny Money Rally Will End?

funny moneyCourtesy of Damien at Wall Street Cheat Sheet

This is a guest post by Precision Capital Management.

While much has been made of the expiration of the Federal Reserve’s $300 Billion quantitative easing program, there are still many more ways in which the Fed can pump the markets with liquidity that need never be paid back to the recipients.  In this article, we take a look at the ramifications of some recent developments with regard to the Treasury and Federal Reserve that will again provide fodder to the equities markets, as well as revisiting our previous work on how money supply has impacted the economy and what it tells us of the potential correction down the road.

As we wrote two days ago, Treasury is effectively winding down its Supplemental Financing Program, the stated intention of which on its inception in September 2008 was to, “drain reserves from the banking system, and therefore offset the reserve impact of recent Federal Reserve lending and liquidity initiatives.”  Delving into the mechanics of it, here is what happened:

Treasury announced special auctions for cash management bills, the proceeds of which were placed on deposit with the Federal Reserve in a special account (as opposed to the proceeds being kept by Treasury to fund the government).  This allowed the Federal Reserve to use these funds (which topped out at $558.9 Billion in November 2008) to borrow or buy securities primarily from banks and broker dealers to help “unfreeze the credit markets.”  The Fed could have simply borrowed or bought securities with money it printed, but this would have expanded its balance sheet by creating excess reserves in the accounts that banks are required to keep with the Fed.  These reserves can be multiplied by at least ten times and used by banks for lending.  At the time, the Fed was rightfully concerned about inflation becoming unmanageable once the credit markets thawed, and about being able to keep the Fed overnight lending rate (fed funds target rate) above zero.  Accordingly, Treasury’s SFP helped to keep the Fed balance sheet under control (if you can call a multiple hundred percentage increase “under control”).  The amount of money that flowed into the financial markets from the SFP was the same as it would have been had the Fed printed the money; however, SFP…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




Special Macro Chart Analysis by Master Trader Fari Hamzei

Special Macro Chart Analysis by Master Trader Fari Hamzei

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet

Master Quant Trader Fari Hamzei was scheduled to contribute a chart to this week’s installment of Chart Junkie, however he offered us a special proprietary treat we had to bring to you all alone:

 
SPX

SPX
 

This is our coveted SP1-MoMo Chart.  We have THREE components in an extremely overbought condition screaming a SELL to us all at once.

On the DAILY S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Chart (above), we see:

1) CI Diff, in the lowest subgraph, is now RED (crossed below 0);

2) CI reading is 27.5 !! This is an extremely high reading.  This is due to a very high ramp-up rate the market has traded at since Meredith Whitney woke us on that faithful Monday (July 13th) to remind us all that “in GS she trusts” — at least for this quarter; and,

 
SP1

SP1
 

3) Divergence between long-term [modified] Advance-Decline Line on the subgraph SP1 (above) and its short-term sister MoMo.  THESE DIVERGENCES always work out.  Note the previous three divergences: two bullish and one bearish, in mid-June, early March, and late November.

Bottom line: A pause is in order. In our humble opinion, at minimum to 954 (38% retracement) or down to the 937 area (50% retracement).

Good Trading to All!

 


Tags: , , , , , ,




Demystifying High Frequency Trading

Demystifying High Frequency Trading

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet

High Frequency TradingThe media recently flipped the floodlights on the new black box de jour: High Frequency Trading (HFT). Only a handful of people who work closely with the exchanges truly understand HFT, so I asked for some color from my friend and top pro quant trader Fari Hamzei from Hamzei Analytics.

Damien: Fari, why is High Frequency Trading one of the hottest new topics in the financial media?

Fari: HFT firms deploy co-located servers at the exchanges/ECNs and Dark Pools. As a result, they take advantage of seeing some of the order flow using very high speed computers with very low latency. The computers execute trades ahead of both retail and institutional orders. The execution times are in milliseconds due to co-location.

HFT is an extremely profitable business — over a $20 billion run rate now. These days, HFT can account for up to 60% of the volume in certain equity names. HFT firms also get liquidity rebates from exchanges/ECNs for their order flow they provide to the exchange — about $0.005/share.

However, this is not market making. Rather, this is artificial volume creation. As evidence for this fact, please look at share trading volumes in Citigroup (C), Bank of American (BAC), and CIT Group (CIT). On some days their combined volume is 10% of all US equities! That’s unbelievable! We have three stocks out of over 5000 names with a constant bid/ask present in the three to five cents range!In addition to seeing the order flow mentioned above, HFT computers can see institutional flash orders.

The Associated Press reported that, “So-called flash orders allow certain members of Direct Edge, Nasdaq and BATS exchanges access (for a fee) to buy and sell order information for milliseconds prior to that information being made available to the public. High-speed computer software can take advantage of that brief period to allow those members to trade ahead of those orders — at better prices — and therefore profit from advanced knowledge of buying and selling activity.” Sen. Charles Schumer is fuming about this issue.

Damien: Is HFT the mystical black box de jour, or a fundamental change in the auction process?

Fari: HFT is a trading strategy, not a necessary component of the auction process. HFT is all high-speed algorithmically…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

5 reasons the coronavirus hit Italy so hard

 

5 reasons the coronavirus hit Italy so hard

A nursing home resident in Rome is moved to a hospital. Mauro Scrobogna/LaPresse via AP

Sara Belligoni, University of Central Florida

Italy is one of the nations worst hit by the global coronavirus pandemic. As a scholar in the field of security and emergency management who has studied and worked in Italy, I have determined that there are at least five major reasons why the country is suffering so much.

1. Lots of old people

Italians have the ...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

5 reasons the coronavirus hit Italy so hard

 

5 reasons the coronavirus hit Italy so hard

A nursing home resident in Rome is moved to a hospital. Mauro Scrobogna/LaPresse via AP

Sara Belligoni, University of Central Florida

Italy is one of the nations worst hit by the global coronavirus pandemic. As a scholar in the field of security and emergency management who has studied and worked in Italy, I have determined that there are at least five major reasons why the country is suffering so much.

1. Lots of old people

Italians have the ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Zero Hedge

Stocks Bid Into Month-End Despite Americans' Unprecedented Scramble For Cash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Amid an ever-escalating guess at the size of pension fund re-allocations funds (latest we saw was $150 billion) into month-end, both bonds and stocks were bid early on today, but as the day wore on, bonds weakened as stocks gained (driven by record IG issuance-driven rate-locks)...

Source: Bloomberg

But while some are rebalancing into stocks, the scramble for cash among average Americans has almost never been more panicky...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Testing 9-Year Support, With Fear Levels At 2009 Highs!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important Tech Index sending a bullish message to investors? It is making an attempt!

Does that mean a low in this important sector is in play? Humbly it is too soon to say at this time!

This chart looks at the Nasdaq Composite Index over the past 25-years on a monthly basis.

The index has spent the majority of the past 9-years inside of rising channel (1), as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs. It created bearish reversal patterns in January & February as it was kissing the underside of the top of the channel and...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

With Everybody Stuck At Home, Investor Conferences Are Going Virtual

Courtesy of Benzinga

With the world at a COVID-19-induced standstill, many conference organizers have either gone online (Benzinga is one of them) or had to cancel upcoming events altogether. There is no clear timetable on how much longer we will be in this state.

Publicly traded companies are already limited in wh...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



more from Bitcoin

The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

more from ValueWalk

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.