Posts Tagged ‘U-shaped’

When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.

Robert Reich explains why the old economy will never recover, instead something new will take its place.  

When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.

Tynemouth Priory, July 2009 by Tyneside-Rob.Courtesy of Robert Reich writing at Robert Reich’s Blog

The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops, the faster it gets back on track. And because this economy fell off a cliff late last fall, they expect it to roar to life early next year. Hence the V shape.

Unfortunately, V-shapers are looking back at the wrong recessions. Focus on those that started with the bursting of a giant speculative bubble and you see slow recoveries. The reason is asset values at bottom are so low that investor confidence returns only gradually.

That’s where the more sober U-shapers come in. They predict a more gradual recovery, as investors slowly tiptoe back into the market.

Personally, I don’t buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery doesn’t depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.

Problem is, consumers won’t start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don’t have the money, and it’s hard to see where it will come from. They can’t borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water — owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can’t are hunkering down, as they must.

Eventually consumers will replace cars and appliances and other stuff that wears out, but a recovery can’t be built on replacements. Don’t expect businesses to invest much more without lots of consumers hankering after lots of new stuff. And don’t rely on exports. The global economy is contracting.

Lonely Poppy, July 2009 by Tyneside-Rob.My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy


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ValueWalk

AstraZeneca Shares Slide After Weak Covid Vaccine Results

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine results and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

AstraZeneca Shares Fall After Annoucing Weak Results Of Its Covid Vaccine

The major indices are mixed and flat at midday despite a positive start to the session on Wall Street. The Nasdaq’s relative weakness has been weighing on the broader market in early trading, following yet another promising ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Phil's Favorites

The Untold Story of Mnuchin's Demand for the Fed to Shut Down Emergency Lending Programs

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Actress Louise Linton and Husband, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin

Fourteen days before U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin released a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, demanding the return of taxpayers’ money and the end to specific Fed emergency programs by the end of the year, four Senate Democrats had...



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Zero Hedge

Navy To Test Resupply Drones For Warships 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division (NAWCAD) recently launched a pilot program to assess just how useful delivery drones are for hauling critical cargo to surface ships, read a US Navy press release

NAWCAD engineers and military pilots are set to evaluate a commercially procured logistics Unmanned Air System (UAS) prototype - called the Blue Water Maritime Logistics UAS - for long-range naval ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore cargo transp...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 vaccines were developed in record time - but are these game-changers safe?

 

COVID-19 vaccines were developed in record time – but are these game-changers safe?

The pandemic rages as the world waits for COVID-19 vaccines. Peter Zelei Images/Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

There are now two COVID-19 vaccines that, at least according to preliminary reports, appear to be 94.5% and ...



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Politics

Why Trump's election fraud claims aren't showing up in his lawsuits challenging the results

 

Why Trump's election fraud claims aren't showing up in his lawsuits challenging the results

Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani alleges election fraud during a news conference at the Republican National Committee headquarters, Nov. 19, 2020, in Washington. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Courtesy of Steven MulroyUniversity of Memphis

There seems to be a real disconnect betwee...



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Chart School

Inflation Deflation Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Structural change forces the current narrative to change. One such structural change would be a period elevated inflation.

Inflation is a condition which effects many economic models, we only have to review the history books of the 1970's to see how asset classes reacted then and how they may react in the future. 

In periods of inflation there are short periods of deflation, as markets adjust from one theme to another it usually does so with some pain. The short answer: Nothing moves in a straight line and high volatility will shock the most experience investor.  

Long term cycles raise the question, if happened before is it likely to happen again. Price does not always fit the sine wave cycle neatly, but if the cycle is tru...

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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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