Posts Tagged ‘US default’

CDS And A U.S. Default: What’s The Point?

CDS And A U.S. Default: What’s The Point?

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark at But Then What

John Carney has a really smart post over at Clusterstock regarding the pricing of credit default swaps for Campbell Soup, JPMorgan and the US government. In case you haven’t been following all of this, the cost to insure credit risk on Campbell Soup and this country are essentially the same while the cost to insure JPMorgan risk is approximately three times as much.

Bloomberg makes an argument that this makes no sense since Morgan is essentially a GSE. In the event of failure, strike that word failure, in the event of a problem with Morgan we can all count on the government coming once more to the barricades. True, but as Carney points out this misses some important elements of risk:

Let’s run through some risks that Reilly seems to be overlooking when it comes to JP Morgan’s debt.

We know that the government isn’t going to let JP Morgan go bankrupt. But we definitely do not know what form future bailouts will take. Maybe creditors will be protected in a future bailout. Maybe they won’t. Keep in mind that in the recent bailouts of the auto sector forced bondholders to take deep haircuts.

We also know that the failure of JP Morgan would almost certainly mean that the financial system was in great distress. In that case, anyone who sold insurance on JP Morgan would likewise probably be distressed, making paying off the insurance more costly. It seems what’s happening here is that sellers of swaps are smartly taking into account this risk.

That kind of risk doesn’t apply to isolated failures due to corruption or embezzling. If Campbell’s went down, the credit markets wouldn’t suddenly freeze up. Those who sold the credit default swaps wouldn’t necessarily have trouble getting the liquidity they need to fund the obligations.

Overlooking these kinds of risks is a problem for Reilly’s argument. It’s hard enough to establish you know how to price risk better than the market. And it’s pretty much impossible when you over look important risks.

I particularly like the way John gets to the real point about letting the markets sort the risks out, but I still don’t quite understand the concept of writing CDS on US government debt.

It seems to me this is a pointless…
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Trump's claim that Europe is 'losing its culture' is racism - and it must be challenged

 

Trump's claim that Europe is 'losing its culture' is racism – and it must be challenged

Courtesy of Chris Allen, University of Leicester

According to Donald Trump, Britain and Europe is “losing its culture” as a result of immigration. In an interview with The Sun newspaper, given in Brussels shortly before travelling to London, Trump explained how migrants from the Middle East and Africa are permanently changing Europe for the worse.

Speaking about the pain it causes him, given that both his mother and father were European, he added:

I think what has happened to Europe is a shame. Allowing the immigration to take place ...



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Zero Hedge

How CEOs Actually Spend Their Time: It's Not How You Think

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

Legendary Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter and the dean of HBS have a new must-read article out; we have a summary and our take below. The topic: how CEOs actually spend their time. It’s not how you think...

When we came across a new study in the Harvard Business Review on how CEOs spend their time, we took notice. Time is especially scarce for CEOs after all, and how they use it sends a message about their ...



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Chart School

Reading the tape of ticker CVR Partners (UAN)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

This stock is going from very bad, to bad, but this change is good enough to change share price.


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Reference turnaroundstockinvesting.com, fundamentals for CVR Partners (readtheticker.com is not a member nor has any association to this service).






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Insider Scoop

Pot Stocks, ETFs, Top News And Data From The Cannabis Industry This Week

Courtesy of Benzinga.

This week, Tilray and Sproutly Canada went public, Sunniva announced plans to spin off its Canadian assets, Zynerba Pharmaceuticals posted positive data for its Phase 2 trial for ZYN002 in Fragile X syndrome, and Zogenix released positive top-line results from its second pivotal Phase 3 study of ZX008 in Dravet Syndrome.

Michigan added 11 new ailments to its list of qualifying conditions for medical cann...



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Digital Currencies

Mythbusting: Why Bitcoin Can Never Go To Zero

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Darryn Pollock via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin’s polarizing effect has people on both ends of the scale either proclaiming it is going to the moon or it is going to zero. The volatile, unprecedented, and revolutionary monetary system that is cryptocurrency has a future that not many can accurately pred...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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Biotech

Opioids don't have to be addictive - the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opioids don't have to be addictive – the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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