Posts Tagged ‘Value Line’

VALUE LINE HASN’T BEEN THIS BEARISH SINCE 2000

VALUE LINE HASN’T BEEN THIS BEARISH SINCE 2000

bearish, value lineCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Value Line, the well known stock picking digest, has turned more bearish on U.S. equities than at any point in the last 10 years.  The company is telling subscribers to pare back equity exposure to just 60%-70%.  That’s a low figure for most Wall Street research firms.  MarketWatch reports:

“according to one top-performing newsletter, there’s been too much of a good thing in the stock market since this rally began last March.The newsletter is the Value Line Investment Survey, which is in a tie for first place for risk-adjusted performance over the three decades the Hulbert Financial Digest has been monitoring the investment newsletter industry.

In its Aug. 21 issue, which was emailed to subscribers early Monday, Value Line reduced its recommended equity allocation to the range of 60% to 70%.

This reflects a cautious to outright bearish posture on Value Line’s part, since the firm has never lowered its recommended allocation to below 50%. The last time it was lower than it is now was October 2000.?

Value Line’s rationale for lowering its recommended equity allocation was not that the economic and financial news is about to take a big turn for the worse, however. Instead, the firm’s concern is that the stock market has rallied so far, so fast, that it has gotten too far ahead of itself.

“The equity market’s relatively high level assumes a lot of things going right within the economy,” Value Line wrote in its issue received Monday morning. “If some of these things go wrong, the reaction could be swift and severe.”

That was written before Monday’s stock market rout, of course. But the market’s sell-off would appear to be a good illustration of the phenomenon: The major reason given for the sell-off was not bad economic news but the mere fact that overseas stocks markets fell.

 


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Phil's Favorites

How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work

 

How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work

Unemployed people wait outside a government office in NYC in 1933. AP Photo

By Jay L. Zagorsky, Boston University

CC BY-ND

The U.S. unemployment rate climbed from a half-century low of 3.5% to 4.4% in March – and is expected to go a lot higher.

But could the rate, as ...



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Zero Hedge

Mysterious Colorado Doomsday Shelter For When "Law & Order Breaks Down" Sees Spike In Interest

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As the pandemic unfolds across the US, city dwellers are getting the hell out of dodge and escaping to rural areas. We noted this last week, with many leaving large metro areas in California, fleeing for the mountains and rural communities to limit their probabilities of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Why wear face masks in public? Here's what the research shows

 

Why wear face masks in public? Here's what the research shows

People have resorted to using scarves and bandanas as face masks to protect against spreading coronavirus. While cloth masks aren’t as effective as surgical masks, research suggests they can limit the spread of droplets. Jens Schleuter/Getty Images

Hector Chapa, Texas A&M University

With the coronavirus pandemic quickly spreading, U.S. health officials have changed their advice on face masks and now recommend people wear cloth masks in public areas where social...



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ValueWalk

Junior gold stocks offer a place of refuge in a falling market

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Junior gold stocks have taken a beating alongside other stocks, but history suggests this could be the time to dive in. The Vaneck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is down from where it was in February, although it’s starting to show signs that it could revive soon.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Crescat likes junior gold stocks

In their March update to investors, Crescat Capital said junior gold stocks retested the lows of a nine-year bear market. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Depression Coming or Is the Bottom Already In? Joe Friday Says Your Answer Lies Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we headed towards a Depression or is the worst already behind us? In today’s world, comparisons to the great depression are easy to find.

Are the Depression concerns well founded or are the declines of late already pricing in a bottom?

In my humble opinion, this chart and the upcoming price action of this index will go miles and miles towards telling us if we are headed towards very tough times or if the huge declines of late are actually in a bottoming process.

This chart looks at the Thomson Reuters Equal Weighted Commodity Index on a monthly basis over the past 54 years. The index has been heading south, reflecting weakness in demand for basi...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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