Posts Tagged ‘VLO’

Fresh Interest In Valero Calls

VLO – Valero Energy Corp – Shares in Valero are in positive territory on Friday, up 0.25% at $34.18 as of the time of this writing. Trading traffic in December expiry options this morning suggests one strategist is positioning for the price of the underlying to increase substantially by year’s end.  The stock was cut to ‘perform’ from ‘outperform’ at Oppenheimer today, but was upgraded to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ at Citi on Wednesday.

The most traded options contracts on the refiner thus far in the session are the Dec $39 strike calls, with roughly 15,000 contracts exchanged versus open interest of 5,090 contracts. Time and sales data indicates most of the calls were purchased at a premium of $0.38 each. The far out of the money call options may be profitable at December expiration should shares in Valero Energy rally 15% over the current price of $34.18 to exceed the breakeven point at $39.38. Shares in VLO last traded above $39.38 back on June 10th.  The company is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on October 29th.  


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Weekly Calls In Play On Disney As Shares Rise To Record Highs

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, NTE & VLO

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Trading traffic in weekly call options on Disney suggests traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains, with the stock up as much as 2.2% at a new all-time high of $63.25 today on the heels of an upgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ with a target price of $72.00 at UBS. Shares in Disney are up nearly 50% since this time last year. Traders betting the stock pushes to fresh highs this week appear to be buying the May 03 ’13 $65 strike weekly calls. Roughly 400 contracts have changed hands versus open interest of 13 contracts as of 12:30 p.m. ET, and it looks like the bulk of the volume was purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.07 per contract. Weekly call buyers make money at expiration this week if shares in Disney increase another 2.9% over today’s high of $63.25 to top the average breakeven point at $65.07. Walt Disney Co. reports second-quarter earnings after the closing bell next Tuesday.

NTE - Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. – Buyers of bearish options on electrical components and products provider, Nam Tai Electronics, Inc., last week prior to the company’s first-quarter earnings report ahead of the open this morning are seeing big gains in the value of those contracts, with shares in the name tumbling more than 30% today to the lowest level since August of 2012. Traders last week snapped up front month put options, buying around 1,500 lots at the May $10 strike for an average premium of $0.40 each and roughly 575 puts at the May $12.5 strike at an average premium of $1.48 apiece. The sharp selloff in shares of Nam Tai today now finds the $10 and $12.5 strike put contracts changing hands at $2.40 and $5.00 apiece, respectively, as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. Overall options volume in excess of 12,000 contracts in play on NTE today is substantial versus the stock’s average…
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Bulls Eye Valero Energy And Western Refining Options


Today’s tickers: VLO, WNR & TSN

VLO - Valero Energy Corp. – The largest independent refiner in the U.S. is the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 Index today, with shares in Valero Energy Corp. currently up more than 7.6% at $27.09 as of 12:10 p.m. in New York. Options activity on the San Antonio, Texas-based Company suggests traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the months ahead. April expiry calls attracted buyers today, with the $26 and $28 strike options seeing the most volume. Traders eyeing further upside moves in the stock purchased most of the 2,200 $28 calls in play for an average premium of $0.66 each. Call buyers profit at expiration next month in the event that Valero’s shares rally another 5.8% to surpass the average breakeven price of $28.66. But, it looks like one strategist trading VLO calls on Monday is already sitting on paper profits given the positive price action since the options were purchased. Call open interest in the April expiry is greatest at the $26 strike, with some 4,574 open positions. Most of these positions were initiated in a block of 3,700 call options, purchased on Monday afternoon for a premium of $1.05 per contract. These calls are now trading at $1.95 apiece as of 12:30 p.m. ET, indicating the value of the position has jumped roughly 85.0% in two days. Finally, the largest transaction in Valero options was established within the first 20 minutes of the opening bell. One trader appears to have sold June $24 strike puts to offset the cost of getting long the June $27 strike calls. The bullish position has the potential to become increasingly profitable for the strategist as shares climb north of the $27-level.

WNR - Western
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Wednesday Wheeeee – We Love it When a Plan Comes Together!

Once again, we're done with our day before you get up.  

In my 5am note to Members, I said: "I see nothing in the news to justify this pre-market "recovery" and I hate to sound like a broken record but I like shorting oil (/CL) if we get below that $102 line with tight stops and the Dow (/YM) is right at 12,400, which is a great spot to short. RUT (/TF) is at 762 and below 760 (same as yesterday) will confirm a downturn but 12,400 is a great line so why wait?"  By 6:26, I was able to follow it up with:

And wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!  There go the Futures!

It's 7:07 and we're still going down, with oil at $101.24 (up $760 per contract) and the Dow at 12,340 (up $300 per contract) and, as Dennis said: "Good enough for steak and eggs for me!"  Roro got up late but still caught the Dow at 6:16 and that was right on the nose for the oil drop as well as we hit it right on the nose this morning and now we're done and waiting for the next good set-up.  

Of course we scale in and scale out of positions as there's no need to get greedy in the Futures, where a single remaining contract catching a $1 move down in oil (now $101.25 again) pays $1,000.  This week, we have even stationed our own Craigzooka in New Zealand, where it's tomorrow – which makes it much easier to bet on today's action as he can tell us what happened already!  Not that today was all that hard to predict, right?  My comment to Members LAST Wednesday was:

It’s been a pretty reliable bet that they tank the markets into the longer-term note auctions because it scares people into T-Bills and keeps the rates low.  From this line-up, it


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Bulls Feed On Large-Cap Financials Weekly Call Options

Today’s tickers: JPM, GS, VLO & HRB

JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – Financial names are on a tear today, and some options strategists are positioning for the good times to continue in the near term. Weekly call options on some of the large-cap financials are flying off the shelves this afternoon, as traders look to take advantage of the rally while it lasts. Shares in JPMorgan are soaring 8.2% to stand at $32.96, making the stock the best performer of the 15-largest holdings in the XLF, as of 12:30 PM in New York. Investors prepared to benefit from continued gains in the price of the underlying purchased in- and out-of-the-money call options with one week remaining to expiration. Bulls picked up roughly 1,800 in-the-money calls at the Dec. ’09 $32 strike for an average premium of $1.06 each, and bought another 3,000 calls at the higher $33 strike at an average premium of $0.39 apiece. Call buyers may profit at expiration next week in the event that shares in JPMorgan Chase & Co. exceed the average breakeven prices of $33.06 and $33.39, respectively.

GS - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Similar to that observed on JPM, near-term bullish activity in Goldman’s weekly calls indicates traders are willing to shell out premium today to speculate on continued recovery in the price of the financial institution’s shares over the next five trading sessions. Goldman’s shares are up 5.6% at $99.75 in early-afternoon trade. Options players exchanged more than 5,900 calls at the Dec. ’09 $105 strike against open interest of 187 contracts, and appear to have purchased the majority of the contracts for an average premium of $1.05 a-pop. Investors long the call options may profit at expiration next week in the event that shares in Goldman Sachs surge 6.3% to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $106.05. Finally, bullish sentiment spread to the higher $110 weekly call where traders paid an average premium of $0.30 to buy some 630 contracts.

VLO - Valero Corp. – Financial stocks are not the only bright spots in the market today, as evidenced by the 5.0% rally in shares of oil refiner Valero Corp. to $23.22. Options traders hoping the stock will record many more green sessions during the next couple of months picked up January 2012 contract call options this morning. It appears traders purchased around 2,500 calls at the Jan. 2012 $24 strike for…
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Full Throttle Friday – Dollar Dive Does Bears In

Oh what fun this is! 

Now the ECB is lending the IMF about $200Bn, which the IMF can lever up to lend Eurozone countries another $500Bn and that's before the Fed and the BOJ and all the other partners in World Crime get together and pump even more money in.  Nothing gives the old Futures a shot in the arm like MORE FREE MONEY and, interestingly enough, the ECB handing out cash Boosts the Euro, now over the $1.35 line.  

This is, of course, FANTASTIC for our Monday trade ideas, which were:  

 

  • FAS Dec $48/55 bull call spread at $3, selling the $40 puts for $2.40 for net .60 on the $7 spread. 5 in the WCP on that one.  (Now net $4.95 – up 725%)

  • FXE Dec $132/135 bull call spread at $1.20, selling the $129 puts for $1.10 for net .10 on the $3 spread.  (Now $1.45, up net 1,350%)

  • JPM Jan $25 puts can be sold for $1.20 (Now .65 – up 45%)

  • AA 2013 $7.50 puts can be sold for $1.28 (Now $1.05 – up 18%)

  • VLO June $17 puts can be sold for $2.05 (Now $1.40, up  32%)

  • Gasoline (/RB) futures at $2.55 (Now $2.62 – up $2,940 per contract)

Now I know that these are the kind of results you get every week so, whatever you do – don't subscribe to our Newsletter!  Why would you want these ideas EMailed to you every morning before the market opens?  If they make you money, then you have to pay taxes and paying taxes is evil, right?  Premium Membership is sold out but you wouldn't want to get trade ideas live during market hours anyway.  Less than $2 per day, however, gets you our Annual PSW Report Membership and you are able to read our full posts every morning, as soon as they are published.  

Speaking of Premium Memberships, congrats
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Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition)

INSANITY!  

That’s what we have today (and what we’ve been having all month) as the markets celebrate the fact that neither the US consumer or the Euro is dead – yet.  Holiday sales are apparently up 16.4% from last year with 10% of those sales being IPhones and Ipads so we can thank the actually dead Steve Jobs for saving the markets from a total meltdown this month as we were on track for the worst November EVER until today.    

The DOOM meter was certainly set to 100 and, in fact, 100 is about how low the McClellan Oscillator went on Friday – to a state of oversold not matched since August 8th, when the Dow bottomed out at 10,600 so holding 11,200 in this protracted sell-off was a victory, of sorts, for the bulls and certainly a victory for those of you following our Big Chart – which made us perhaps the ONLY newsletter that was bullish on Friday, when I laid out my bullish case and right in the main post – for free – suggested long ideas on:

  • Oil Futures (/CL):  Was $95, now $100 – up $5,000 per contract
  • Gasoline Futures (/RB): Was $2.50, now $2.54 – up $1,680 per contract

And, in Member Chat – our Morning Alert had the following trade ideas:  

  • FAS Dec $48/55 bull call spread at $3, selling the $40 puts for $2.40 for net .60 on the $7 spread. 5 in the WCP on that one.
  • FXE Dec $132/135 bull call spread at $1.20, selling the $129 puts for $1.10 for net .10 on the $3 spread.
  • JPM Jan $25 puts can be sold for $1.20
  • AA 2013 $7.50 puts can be sold for $1.28.
  • VLO June $17 puts can be sold for $2.05

We also speculated on an aggressive AMZN long play with the Dec $200 calls at $2.50 but, overall, we take this 2% bounce after a 10% drop with a grain of salt.  As I said to Members in the alert:  Just like we watched with amusement while things fell earlier this week, we should take a move up just as lightly until we cross back over our Must Hold Lines – to some extent, we have selling fatigue driving this move – keep in mind my bullish discussion
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Rumor Mill Drives Heavy Action In Valero Options

Today’s tickers: VLO, EBAY, TMO & TRGT

VLO - Valero Energy Corp. – Reports of takeover chatter fueled frenzied trading in Valero Energy Corp. options, with volume in VLO topping 83,000 contracts by 12:05 pm in New York. Shares in the producer of gasoline, jet fuel and other refined products surged 11.1% to $24.28 in early-afternoon trade. Call options are changing hands at a rate of more than three contracts to each single put option in play on the stock. November and December contracts are the most heavily trafficked thus far in the session, although options plays are present in each available expiry. While trading in Nov. and Dec. calls is mixed, there does appear to be a bullish bias to the transactions. Investors snapped up calls at the Nov. $24, $25, $26 and $27 strikes to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying through expiration next month. The Nov. $25 strike call has generated the most volume, with more than 3,500 contracts having changed hands so far today. It appears buyers of the Nov. $25 strike call picked up more than 1,800 lots for an average premium of $0.99 each. Traders long the contracts may profit at expiration day if shares in VLO rally another 4.7% to surpass the average breakeven price of $25.99. Investors hoping to see sharp gains in the stock over the next few weeks purchased around 515 calls up at the Nov. $31 strike for an average premium of $0.09 each. Premium paid to get long the calls may be lost and gone forever in the event that shares are trading below those levels come expiration day in a few weeks time. Valero Energy Corp. is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell on November 1.

EBAY - eBay, Inc. – Bearish activity in eBay, Inc. options this morning suggests one strategist may profit if shares in the provider of online marketplaces and secure payment services decline substantially within the next four weeks. Meanwhile, trading traffic in November contract call options may be the work of an investor throwing in the towel on hopes for a sharp near-term rally in the price of the underlying. Shares in EBAY slipped 2.75% to $30.80 by 11:30 am in New York. Volume in eBay’s options is heaviest at the Nov. $29 strike, where it appears one trader purchased around 6,000 puts for an average premium of…
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Monday Madness – G20 FinMins Set Two Week Deadline

Two weeks!  

European leaders have two weeks to settle differences and flesh out a strategy to terminate their sovereign debt crisis as global finance chiefs warn failure to do so would endanger the world economy.  “The risk of a recession would be increased dramatically were the Europeans to fail to accomplish goals that they’ve set for themselves,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said after the G-20 meeting on Saturday.

The Brussels meeting “has the potential to turn into a positive historic moment,” Joachim Fels, London-based chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. “But it could also easily turn into a negative catalyst.”

Europe’s plan, which has still to be made public, includes writing down Greek bonds by as much as 50 percent, establishing a backstop for banks and magnifying the strength of the 440 billion-euro ($611 billion) temporary rescue fund known as the European Financial Stability Facility.  “The plan has the right elements,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in Paris. “They clearly have more work to do on the strategy and the details.” 

The G-20 officials — who met to prepare for a Nov. 3-4 gathering of leaders in Cannes, France (and we're fondly remembering London's 2009 meeting with the graphic on the right) — said in a statement that the world economy faces “heightened tensions and significant downside risks.” European authorities must “decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan.

The policy makers held out the possibility of rewarding European action with more aid from the International Monetary Fund, while splitting over whether the Washington-based lender’s $390 billion war chest needs topping up.  Europe’s latest strategy hinges on putting Greece, whose government forecasts its debt to reach 172 percent of gross domestic product in 2012, on a sustainable path. Austerity has plunged the country deeper into recession and provoked civil unrest that threatens political stability.

My reaction to this in Member Chat this Morning was to call for shorting the jacked up Dow Futures (/YM) at 11,600, saying:  

Speaking of the illusion of power – yet another G20 meeting ends with yet another plan to have a plan but this time, for some insane reason, they only gave


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Just Another Manic Monday – Value Investing

Up, up and away!  

As I mentioned in Friday’s morning’s post, we did a lot of bottom-fishing on Thursday as we began to develop Disaster fatigue with long plays on XLF at $11.50, shorting TLT at $123, shorting VXX at $49.50, TNA at $34.50, BRK.B at $65, AA at $10.20, VLO at $19, IMAX at $15.75, BA at $58.32, AGQ at $170, CHK at $27.50, DIS at $30.14 and ABX at $47.50.   They were hedged, of course and, for the most part, you still had a nice chance to make those entries on Friday – but not so much this morning as the futures are up about 1.5% already (7:30).  

Friday morning, in my Alert to Members, I reminded them that BCS looked like an excellent VALUE to me, no matter what the PRICE was ($8.75 after hitting $8.40 the day before) and this morning, that PRICE is up well over 10% in EU trading.  Did the VALUE of BCS change materially over the weekend?  Of course not, certainly not by the $4Bn their market cap gained – like the song, the VALUE remains the same – only the highly variable price of a share of BCS is undergoing ch-ch-changes…  

I pointed out similar hedged, long-term plays could be made on GS ($94), MS ($13), BAC ($6) and C ($24).  Of course we hedged them per our discussion in the morning post (TZA was our morning choice but we’re out over 650 on the RUT) but then we went long on EWG (Germany) again with the very aggressive Oct $16,18 bull call spread at $1.30, offset by the sale of the $17 puts for .90 for net .40 on the $2 spread.  10 of those in our virtual $25,000 Portfolio cost $400 and can return $2,000 in less than 30 days if EWG is over $18 and, guess what – they’re over $18 this morning!

Another bullish bet we placed was USO Nov $28/30 bull call spread at $1.30, selling the $27 puts for $1.10 for net .20 on the $2 spread with a 900% upside if USO simply doesn’t drop from where it is now.  That’s what’s nice about options – you don’t need the market to go up to make money good money.  On this trade idea, your worst-case scenario is owning USO at net $27.20, about 10% lower than it…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Experiencing A 20-Year Breakout, While Small Caps Are Near 20-Year Lows!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Successful investors are often rewarded by owning strength and avoiding weakness.

Could two key sectors be experiencing 20-year strength and weakness extremes at the same time? Yes!

The NDX 100/S&P ratio (left above) is currently experiencing a 20-year breakout at (1).

At the same time, the Russell 2000/S&P ratio is near 20-year lows at (2).

This 2-pack reflects that the place to be at this time continues to be Tech...



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Zero Hedge

Plunge In Consumer Credit Continues As Americans Repay Record Amounts Of Credit Card Debt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One of the striking changes to US consumer behavior spawned by the economic shutdowns from the coronavirus pandemic, was the unprecedented surge in personal savings which  exploded to a record 32% of disposable personal income before easing modestly last month to 23.2%.

Now, thanks to the latest consumer credit data released by the Fed, we know what much of that saving went to: paying down debt.

...



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Phil's Favorites

"Just because you're buying stock, doesn't mean you're an investor"

 

“Just because you’re buying stock, doesn’t mean you’re an investor”

Courtesy of 

Josh here – in the mid 1960’s, investors decided that there was a group of fifty growth stocks whose outlook was so bright that it didn’t matter what price you paid for them, as long as you were buying. By the early 70’s, they were learning a critical lesson about starting valuation – McDonalds, Coke and Procter & Gamble did indeed have a very bright future, but that didn’t prevent them from being cut in half. Investors in these names would have ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

5 COVID-19 myths politicians have repeated that just aren't true

 

5 COVID-19 myths politicians have repeated that just aren't true

The purveyors of these myths aren’t doing the country any favors. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Courtesy of Geoffrey Joyce, University of Southern California

The number of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has jumped to around 50,000 a day, and the virus has killed more than 130,000 Americans. Yet, I still hear myths about the infection that has created the worst public health crisis in A...



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ValueWalk

100 Days Since The Roll Back Of Fuel Efficiency Standards

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

“100 Days Since…” Trump Rolled Back Fuel Efficiency Standards While Public Health, Economic Fallout Accelerated

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Rollback Of Fuel Efficiency Standards

WASHINGTON, D.C. – One hundred days ago today, the Trump administration finalized its rollback of fuel efficiency standards — a s...



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The Technical Traders

Credit/Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels.  The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 07:49:29 PM

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Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s



Date Found:...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.