Posts Tagged ‘work week’

We’re In A One-and-a-half Dip Recession

We’re In A One-and-a-half Dip Recession

Courtesy of Robert Reich 

We’re not in a double-dip recession yet. We’re in a one and a half dip recession.

Consumer confidence is down. Retail sales are down. Home sales are down. Permits for single-family starts are down. The average work week is down. The only things not down are inventories – unsold stuff is piling up in warehouses and inventories of unsold homes are rising – and defaults on loans.

The 1.5 dip recession should be causing alarm bells to ring all over official Washington. It should cause deficit hawks to stop squawking about future debt, blue-dog Democrats to stop acting like Republicans, and mainstream Democrats to get some backbone.

The 1.5 dip recession should cause the President to demand a large-scale national jobs program including a new WPA that gets millions of Americans back to work even if government has to pay their wages directly. Included would be zero-interest loans to strapped states and locales, so they didn’t have to cut vital services and raise taxes. They could repay when the economy picked up and revenues came in. The national jobs program would also include a one-year payroll tax holiday on the first $20,000 of income.

The President should stop talking and acting on anything else – not the deficit, not energy, not the environment, not immigration, not implementing the health care law, not education. He should make the whole upcoming mid-term election a national referendum on putting Americans back to work, and his jobs bill. Are you for it or against it?

But none of this is happening. The hawks and blue dogs are still commanding the attention. Herbert Hoover’s ghost seems to have captured the nation’s capital. We’re back to 1932 (or 1937) and the prevailing sentiment is government can’t and mustn’t do anything but aim to reduce the deficit, even though the economy is going down.

It looks like there’ll be an extension of unemployment benefits. (If it weren’t for the human suffering involved, I wish the Republicans had been forced to filibuster that bill all summer and show the nation just how much they care about people without jobs.) But the fiscal stimulus resulting from this will be tiny. Jobless benefits are humane but they alone don’t get jobs back.

And what about the Fed? It’s the last game in town. The 1.5 dip recession should…
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Zero Hedge

Markets Are "On The Cusp" Again

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

For the third month in a row markets are on the cusp of breaking their bull market trends. And once again they need a magic rescue into month end to avoid such a break.

What if you have a license to rally and stocks sell anyways? Not a g...



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Phil's Favorites

What should the House do? Part 1: Veto-proof actions... then aim for a thousand vetoes

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author, and one of the “World’s Best Futurists” — explores a myriad of topics on his lively and always interesting blog: politics, science, history, science fiction, etc. For more posts by David, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Small caps could fall 20% from here, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This chart looks at the Russell 2000 over the past 30-years, where it has spent the majority of that time, inside of rising channel (A).

This chart reflects that the long-term trend in small caps remains higher. Weakness this year has it testing rising support tied to the 2009 lows at (1).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- If the Russell breaks below support at (1), it could work its way over time to channel support at (2), which is currently around 20% below current prices.

Very important support test in play ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptogeddon Continues - Bitcoin Plunges To 2018 Lows Amid 'Cash' Chaos

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Crypto markets have accelerated their losses again overnight with Bitcoin crashing to new 2018 lows, Ethereum back into double-digits, and Bitcoin Cash utterly devastated as lawsuits fly.

Once again a sea of red across the crypto space...

Source

Bitcoin Cash is down 40% this week alone...

...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for December is schedule for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • Data on wholesale inventories for October will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on natural gas stocks in underground storage is schedule for release at 10:30 a.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Member of the Board of Governors Lael Brainard is set to speak in Washington D.C. at 12:15 p.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the recent week will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET.
  • Data on consumer credit for October will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET.
  • ...


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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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Chart School

Golds Xmas Gift

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Three things have tweaked the fundamentals for gold.

1) Bitcoin is not attracting the hot cash, unlike 2016.

2) Fed's Powell dovish switch, now less expectations for interest rate hikes in 2019.

3) China to import more goods from the USA, hence more US Dollars required.

The question now is will this move gold back to resistance before year end? 

Gann angles look good, cycle looks attractive, now we wait for volume and a price to break into new ground. Profits could be golden for Xmas.

Gann Angles



 

Cycle picture
...



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Biotech

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Vchal/Shutterstock

By Joyce Harper, UCL

A scientist in China claims to have produced the world’s first genome-edited babies by altering their DNA to increase their resistance to HIV. Aside from the lack of verifiable evidence for this non peer-revie...



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Members' Corner

Cheri Jacobus on Politics with PSW

 

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shared her thoughts about the current political environment with us in our August interview, and now we’re following up. 

Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?

Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women. 

Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats ...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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