Posts Tagged ‘world steel production’

REVALUING THE YUAN – AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

REVALUING THE YUAN – AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

Drunk Man Sleeping After Party

Courtesy of Rohan of Data Diary:

[h/t Pragcap]

Not quite a random walk, more like the one lurch forward, two staggers back, that is how the market has greeted the ‘news’ that China will be taking the yuan to a crawling peg.  First, risk markets rallied as we all looked inquisitively at each other and asked ‘isn’t this what we wanted?’.  Then with bearish trend reversals prominent in markets across the globe, the real response kicked in.

The weight of money now seems to be gathering behind the notion that the Chinese are serious about slowing their economy – and that the crawling revaluation of the yuan is just another plank in this strategy.  The clearest prognostication of the markets reception of these moves to reign in Chinese growth is provided by the Baltic Dry Index:

Baltic Dry Index 400x323 REVALUING THE YUAN AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

It’d be fair to say freight rates have collapsed over the last couple of weeks.  When we read that capesize freight per tonne rates from Australia to China were down 25% last week (from Cotzias Shipping here), the simplest interpretation is that the demand for bulk commodities has taken a turn for the worse.

To place this in a little context, consider the following chart of world steel production:

World steel production 400x209 REVALUING THE YUAN AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

The importance of China to global demand for iron ore and coking coal is self evident.  But to make the point all the more clearly, consider this excerpt from the World Steel Association’s May report (here)

World crude steel production in May 2010 was 9.8% higher in comparison with May 2007, before the impact of the global economic crisis was felt. However, while China, South Korea and Turkey showed increased crude steel production in May 2010 compared to the same month 2007, the US, Italy, Spain and Japan are not yet back to pre-crisis production levels. The EU is -18%, North America -14% and Latin America -9.8% down on the five months to May total in 2007.

Now the point of this thinking is that the reaction of risk markets to the news about the revaluation is understandable.  If we make the broad assumption that the downside risks around Europe have been essentially factored into the markets (for the moment), and that those relating to the US are in abeyance (for the moment), then those around China are to…
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Zero Hedge

US Suffers Record 52k New COVID-19 Cases As Holiday Weekend Begins: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Coronavirus cases in the US hit another daily record on Thursday as Americans prepared for a distinctly joyless Fourth of July weekend that bears none of the sense of joy and revival that the country enjoyed on Memorial Day Weekend. According to JHU, the US reported 52,291 new cases, bringing its nationwide total to 2,739,879.

Source: JHU ...



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Phil's Favorites

Presidents' panel: How COVID-19 will change higher education

 

Presidents' panel: How COVID-19 will change higher education

COVID-19 has altered nearly every aspect of higher education. Gerald Herbert/AP

Courtesy of Walter M. Kimbrough, Dillard University; Ana Mari Cauce, University of Washington, and Samuel L. Stanley, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Presidents' panel: How COVID-19 will change higher education

 

Presidents' panel: How COVID-19 will change higher education

COVID-19 has altered nearly every aspect of higher education. Gerald Herbert/AP

Courtesy of Walter M. Kimbrough, Dillard University; Ana Mari Cauce, University of Washington, and Samuel L. Stanley, ...



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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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ValueWalk

Top 10 most valuable cities in the United States

By Vikas Shukla. Originally published at ValueWalk.

People have been flocking to big cities for decades, driving the prices of residential real estate up in big cities. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the work-from-home trend, which would give people the freedom to live and work from anywhere. It could hurt the real estate prices in big cities such as New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco in the coming years. But for now, these three are the most valuable cities in the United States.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

How do you attach monetary value to a city? ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Chart School

US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?


Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?


The question is always what will the future price action look like ?


This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.



There are two theories: ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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