Posts Tagged ‘world steel production’

REVALUING THE YUAN – AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

REVALUING THE YUAN – AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

Drunk Man Sleeping After Party

Courtesy of Rohan of Data Diary:

[h/t Pragcap]

Not quite a random walk, more like the one lurch forward, two staggers back, that is how the market has greeted the ‘news’ that China will be taking the yuan to a crawling peg.  First, risk markets rallied as we all looked inquisitively at each other and asked ‘isn’t this what we wanted?’.  Then with bearish trend reversals prominent in markets across the globe, the real response kicked in.

The weight of money now seems to be gathering behind the notion that the Chinese are serious about slowing their economy – and that the crawling revaluation of the yuan is just another plank in this strategy.  The clearest prognostication of the markets reception of these moves to reign in Chinese growth is provided by the Baltic Dry Index:

Baltic Dry Index 400x323 REVALUING THE YUAN AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

It’d be fair to say freight rates have collapsed over the last couple of weeks.  When we read that capesize freight per tonne rates from Australia to China were down 25% last week (from Cotzias Shipping here), the simplest interpretation is that the demand for bulk commodities has taken a turn for the worse.

To place this in a little context, consider the following chart of world steel production:

World steel production 400x209 REVALUING THE YUAN AND OTHER TALES FROM A DRUNKEN SAILOR

The importance of China to global demand for iron ore and coking coal is self evident.  But to make the point all the more clearly, consider this excerpt from the World Steel Association’s May report (here)

World crude steel production in May 2010 was 9.8% higher in comparison with May 2007, before the impact of the global economic crisis was felt. However, while China, South Korea and Turkey showed increased crude steel production in May 2010 compared to the same month 2007, the US, Italy, Spain and Japan are not yet back to pre-crisis production levels. The EU is -18%, North America -14% and Latin America -9.8% down on the five months to May total in 2007.

Now the point of this thinking is that the reaction of risk markets to the news about the revaluation is understandable.  If we make the broad assumption that the downside risks around Europe have been essentially factored into the markets (for the moment), and that those relating to the US are in abeyance (for the moment), then those around China are to…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Bank Stocks Sending Bullish Message To Investors?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Just as the health of the banking sector is a big deal to the economy, it’s equally important to the S&P 500 (SPY) and broader stock market.

Although the bull market has grinding higher, it’s awaiting confirmation from the banks and banks stocks.

Today’s chart is of the S&P 500 Bank ETF (KBE) and shows how the banks are at an important juncture in time and price.

KBE (the bank ETF) is testing the upper end of a falling channel, offering bulls an opportunity for a breakout – see point (2).

The banks were at a similar juncture nearl...



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Phil's Favorites

BIS Drops a Bombshell: Four U.S. Mega Banks Are Core of Repo Loan Crisis

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America; WFC=Wells Fargo. (Source: Office of Financial Research.)

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 9, 2019  Yesterday, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) dropped a bombshell report that torpedoed the Federal Reserve’s official narrative on what has caused the overnight lending market (repo loan market) on Wall Street to seiz...



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Zero Hedge

Africom Confirms Russian Air Defense System Shot Down US Drone Over Libyan Capital  

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

U.S. Africa Command (Africom) has confirmed that an unarmed American drone over the Libyan capital last month was shot down by Russian air defenses, reported Reuters.

Africom dropped three headlines via Reuters in the overnight, revealing how the surveillance drone was shot down over Tripoli. 

  • EXCLUSIVE-U.S....



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Insider Scoop

KalVista Shares Sink On Failed Mid-Stage Study Of Diabetic Macular Edema Drug

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of thinly-traded micro-cap biotech Kalvista Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: KALV) are seen moving to the downside Monday.

What Happened

Massachusetts-based KalVista, which focuses on developing small molecule protease inhibitors, said a Phase 2 study that evaluated its KVD001 in patients with diabetic macular edema, who were poor responders to previous treatment with anti-VEGF t...



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Digital Currencies

The Road To Retirement: Millennials Put Their Faith In Bitcoin But Goldman Says Go With Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

"Drop Gold" - the ever-present tagline of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust TV commercial - appears to be working its magic on a certain cohort of society.

2019 has seen assets under management in GBTC soar...

Source: Bloomberg

And for Millennials, according to the lates...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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