Posts Tagged ‘XLF’

Bulls Binge On XLF Calls Following FOMC Announcement

 

Today’s tickers: XLF, LVS & BZH

XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Traders positioning for financial stocks to extend gains on the heels of Thursday’s FOMC announcement are loading up on XLF call options this morning. Shares in the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF earlier rallied as much as 1.8% to hit a new 52-week high of $16.44. Overall options volume on the fund is well above 500,000 contracts as of 11:35 a.m. ET, with the call-to-put ratio hovering just below 10-to-1. The Oct. $17 strike call has changed hands more than 320,000 times so far today against open interest of 215,271 positions. Much of the previously opened positions were established yesterday as traders stepped up to purchase the contracts for an average premium of $0.07 apiece. This morning, it looks like buyers are once again in the driver’s seat, paying an average of $0.12 per contract for the $17 strike call options. Traders getting long the contracts at around $0.12 apiece stand ready to profit at expiration next month if the price of the underlying rallies another 4% over today’s high of $16.44 to top the average breakeven price of $17.12. Shares in the XLF are off their highs of the day, up 0.90% at $16.30 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York.

LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp.– Shares in the resort casino operator are up sharply today, trading 4.0% higher on the day at $47.21 just before 12:30 p.m. in New York. The Fed’s decision to extend its bond buying program and a number of analyst upgrades on Las Vegas Sands helped lift demand for bullish options on the stock this morning. A number of options market participants appear to be betting that shares in LVS have more room to run in the near term. Plain-vanilla call buying is prevalent across several out-of-the-money strikes in the September and October expiries. Traders positioning to benefit from strong performance in the shares…
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TGIF – Stop the Rally, We Want to get Off!

This rally is never going to end!

Just look at this chart – we're breaking every level.  THIS time is different – not only are we going to go on to 1,450, we're going to 1,500 and 1,550 and then 1,600 and then we're going to 1,700 and 1,800 and 1,900 and then we're going on to take on 2,000 – yeeeeeergh!  

Sorry, I was channeling my inner Dean…  Now that I've calmed down, I realize that this chart that got me so excited was actually the chart from March 5th and, as you can see from my end of February headlines like "Sell in March and Go Away," "This is the End – But For Who?" and "Fake-Out Thursday (March 8th) – Dollar Sacrificed on an Altar of Lies" – where I pointed out that rumors of more Fed easing (by John Hilsenrath of the WSJ, of course) had dumped the Dollar to 79 and that was accounting for the 1% gain in the S&P that day so – don't be fooled!  

The ECB had just dropped $712,800,000,000 in fresh stimulus on the 29th and I asked "Will Another $712Bn Buy Us Another Day at 13,000?"  Was I early?  Yes.  Did we miss the end of the rally?  Yes.  In fact, our $25,000 Portfolio at the time was so bearish, we were down almost $8,000 with huge bearish bets like 10 Short XRT March $55 calls, 10 short GLL March $17 puts, 10 April SCO 31/39 bull call spreads and 10 SCO short March $34 puts, 5 short FAS $88 calls, 5 March TZA $18 calls, 10 short SQQQ June $14 puts, 40 USO April $40 puts, 5 short FAS March $75 calls, 10 long FAS March $85 calls and 10 short FAS March $89 calls (a bearish spread), 10 TLT March $114/115 bull call spreads and 10 DIA March $129 puts.  

The only bullish play we had at the time in our virtual portfolio was DMND, where we had 4 hopeless June $29 calls which we lucked out on when they spike on rumors in mid-March.  Every other bullish position had been dumped and we were practically 100% bearish because the rally, at that point, seemed totally ridiculous.  Just a months later, the Portfolio turned around and was up $8,000 and by May
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Which Way Wednesday?

SPY 5 MINUTEWow!

What a day yesterday.  The Dow dropped over 100 points from the open but then, at 2 pm, a miracle occurred and we recovered almost all of our losses in just 30 minutes.  We had similar action on the S&P and, as TA guru Dave Fry commented:  

Our crack addicted trading desks believe in the Bernanke Put and the global central bank put. It’s quite apparent reading the news from China this morning as pundits were universally calling for more PBOC stimulus—it’s QE contagion. Moody’s cut their European outlook to negative which must be viewed two ways: Moody’s gets no respect and it means more QE.

Speaking of which the ECB is rumored to be launching “unlimited” bond buying (QE) with “conditions” (whatever those might be). The bond buying is said to be 0-3 year maturities with the implication being the problems of austerity and debt would beClouseau-like “sol-ved” during that period. Given that sort of optimism you’d not be incorrect in assuming the ECB will need a bailout itself down the road.

As you can see from Dave's SPY chart, the real volume for the day came to the downside while more volume sold off into the close than took us up in the afternoon. 

That's the beauty of the HFT algos – they punch the market up all afternoon and then dump it on the mutual funds that come in after the bell and buy (for you – you retail sucker) at the day's closing prices.  Pump and dump – that's the game the big boys get to play every day and it's clear as a bell that yesterday was dump, pump and dump with 2-3 times more volume selling that buying

That's why this chart of On Balance Volume has such a massive divergence, again, much like the one that led to a 20% drop in the market last year that "no one saw coming."  OBV measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days – clearly…
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Big Block Of Upside Calls Trades On XLF

 

Today’s tickers: XLF, SBUX & BKS

XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Options on the XLF are among the most active by volume this morning after a large block of upside calls changed hands in the first 45 minutes of the trading session. Shares in the ETF rose 0.70% to $15.03 earlier today, just below the three-month high of $15.06. Heavy trading traffic in the October expiry calls suggests one options market participant may be positioning for the price of the underlying to soar to a new 52-week high during the next couple of months. It looks like a block of approximately 87,000 calls were purchased at the Oct. $16 strike for a premium of $0.12 apiece. The sizable position may pay off at expiration in the event XLF shares increase 7.5% over the current price of $15.00 to exceed the effective breakeven price of $16.12. Shares in the ETF last traded above $16.12 in May 2011.

SBUX - Starbucks Corp. – Shares in Starbucks are continuing to recover today, with the stock up better than 2.6% on the session at $47.67 just before 11:30 a.m. in New York, on the heels of a rough patch that saw the price of the underlying slide 30% from a record high of $62.00 in April down to a six-month low of $43.04 in August. Options activity on the seller of Frappaccino Blended Beverages, Bistro Boxes and various baked goods today suggests some traders are positioning for the recovery story to continue to play out, at least through the end of this week. Fresh interest in upside calls is heaviest at the Aug. $48 strike this morning where 2,400 calls changed hands against open interest of 492 contracts. It looks like most of the call options were purchased for an average premium of $0.29 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit should SBUX shares rally another 1.3% to exceed the average breakeven price of $48.29 at expiration…
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XLF Put Options Suggest Rally May Have Short Shelf Life

 

Today’s tickers: XLF, AKAM & OI

XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – All 10 sectors of the S&P 500 index are in positive territory today after ECB President Mario Draghi said policy makers will do what is necessary to preserve the euro. Shares in the XLF, although off their highs of the session, continue to trade up 1.2% on the day at $14.44 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. Draghi’s market-moving comments did not manage to make an optimist of one options player who appears to have pulled the trigger on a large position in XLF puts this morning just as the price of the underlying was reaching its highs for the day. It looks like the trader is positioning for shares in the ETF to sustain double digit decline during the next few months by purchasing approximately 70,000 puts at the Oct. $13 strike for an average premium of $0.25 apiece. The bearish position may be profitable at expiration in the event XLF shares slide more than 11% to trade below the average breakeven price of $12.75. Though the transaction was not tied to stock, it is possible the put buyer is hedging a long position in shares of the XLF as opposed to taking an outright bearish stance on the financials. The cost of securing downside protection in the form of Oct. $13 puts is relatively cheaper to come by today with shares in the ETF up and the cost of the options down $0.08 since Monday.

AKAM - Akamai Technologies, Inc. – Strong cloud-computing demand helped Akamai Technologies post better-than-expected second-quarter profit and sales after the closing bell on Wednesday, sending shares in the name screaming to the upside on Thursday. Shares in Akamai are up better than 23% in early-afternoon trade to stand at $34.82 and it looks like some options players are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the second half of…
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TGI False Hope!

SPY 5 MINUTEI love it when a plan comes together! 

As you know, we took an aggressive, protective short on Wednesday afternoon so it was "wheeeeeee!" on the dip with our prediction of XLF  hitting $14 coming in to the penny while our JPM bottom target of $34.75 missing by .10, as we bottomed out at $34.85 before popping back $1 (3%) but, in all fairness, I did say "around $34.75" in the morning – so we knew it wasn't an exact target

While we bottom-fished all day, I officially called the turn at 2:48, saying to our Members in Chat:  

 If you want a thrill ride, you can now buy the QQQ next week $61/62 bull call spread for .55 and that should be able to stop out with a .20-25 loss if things go badly tomorrow but make a nice double if the Qs head back up (now $61.58).  Note we got wiped out on our this week $63s so not at all a sure thing.  

Also, UCO just seems silly at $23.50 with July 4th coming up – I like the July $23/24 bull call spread at .50.

TNA next weekly $47 calls at $2.15 are also fun but those can cost you if things go the wrong way but TNA was $50 2 days ago and $52.50 2 weeks ago so they could make a nice payoff quickly. 

Damn, I guess I still think the EU comes through tomorrow….

SPY WEEKLYWe didn't have to wait until tomorrow, of course.  Someone (who will never be investigated) jumped the gun with a $3.3Bn block purchase of 50,000 S&P E-Mini Futures and that reversed almost all of the day's drop into the close.  Then we got word of the expected $120Bn whatever they are calling it from the EU after hours and we got even better news at night as they took various steps to do stuff that I really don't care about because it isn't enough cash and it's going to fail again unless they pump it up by about 3x today.  

As we know from PSW's…
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Frustrating Thursday – From .EUphoria to .DEspair

SPY 5 MINUTE.DE is Germany's web domain.

So I'm trademarking .DEspair to consolidate all the anti-EU statements coming out of Germany this week as the rhetoric reaches a crescendo and goes up from there.  .EU is, of course the EU domain and .EUphoria is where we will store all the glowing pro-EU rhetoric that makes the market rise (until someone in Germany says something).  

It's a typical case of .DE said, SH.Eu said and all the kiddies can do is hide in their room until Mommy and Daddy stop fighting.   

Things were getting silly enough on the plus side as we rallied for no reason at all that we added a very aggressive short position on the Russell using TZA.  My 3:07 comment in Member Chat was:  

Big RUT move makes TZA fairly cheap at $20 and the July $20/24 bull call spread is $1, which makes for a nice hedge and if the RUT pops, you can offset it with the July $18 puts, now .45, for $1 or better or, of course, there's always the TWIL List

We had no long plays to make yesterday as we added them all when the market was much lower (told you so!) and now it has moved to the top of the bottom of our range and we pick up a short – this is not rocket science, folks.  It's going to be a choppy, terrible market until either the EU saves us by tomorrow or we crash and burn horribly and my comment to Members in the Morning Alert at 10:24 was: 

We still need the Dollar to go lower and this morning it's zooming higher (82.80) and keeping us from a better move up on the indexes.  This will go on for the next few days with each syllable uttered by anyone of presumed authority in the EU so – if you can't stand the heat – stay in cash!  

FXE WEEKLYThe Dollar had worked it's way down to 82.50 into the close but now (8am) it's been jammed back to 82.90 as the Euro plunges back to $1.2426 on whatever silly thing someone just said.  Financials are dragging everyone down as they are DOOMED if the EU can't pull things together.

Financials are also hurting as the NY Times Dealbook Blog is reporting that JPM's Trading losses "may reach $9Bn."  I'm a little…
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Technical Tuesday – Red is Dead

OK, now we are pushing it.

Our danger zone is the bottom of the top of those "V" patterns that we formed in the early June dip.  Those lines must hold and they are roughly Dow 12,400, S&P 1,310, Nas 2,800, NYSE 7,450 and Russell 750 – all are holding so far but we really can't afford another red day here if we want to stay bullish.  

Although we reminded Members to watch our primary hedges (TZA and EDZ spreads) in the Morning Alert - both of them have bullish offsets (short BTU and USO puts) that will zero out the trade if the market recovers – so we do remain generally bullish as long as our levels hold (and we can stop out our short puts and go more bearish if our levels fail).  

Our other trades for the day were still bullish pokes from our very cashy positions – still hoping for the EU to lead us to the promised land – or at least give us a fix that gets us high for another day or two.  That's all we need man, just a fix, come on Angela – do us a solid!   

SPY DAILYWe added more CHK longs as they tested $17 again – that is one fun stock to trade if you have good range discipline!  TLT got high again so we went short on them in both of our $25,000 Portfolios and we reiterated Friday's AAPL play (see Stock World Weekly) and we went long on oil Futures at $78.50 for a lunch-time trade and got a quick .75 gain ($750 per contract) along with the Dow at 12,400, which gave us a quick 50 points but "just" $5 per penny per contract ($250) for that one.  

For the Futures-challenged, we added 20 USO July $29/30 bull call spreads at .52 to both our Aggressive and Regular $25,000 Portfolios and USO promptly shot up to $29.80, which is just lovely as we seek to turn $1,040 into $2,000 in 24 days with no margin required on the straight bull call spread.  FAS was also too tempting to turn down and we went with a more aggressive spread there and that's using margin to get a 500% return in 24 days if all goes well.  

So still bullish with what little cash we have…
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Monday’s Mobbed-Up Markets – “Investment Banks are the Mafia”

You HAVE to watch this!  

Matt Taibbi and Yves Smith, two people who really understand what the Banksters are up to, explain to Bill Moyers how Investment Banks are no different than any other form of organized crime except for the fact that they completely own the politicians and the judges and the regulators who are supposed to be prosecuting them and the ones that can't be bought – like Elliott Spitzer – are destroyed.  

 

Things are not going to get better in this country – or anywhere in the World – until we begin to treat these Banksters like what they are – criminal organizations that are stealing the wealth of the World.  The problem is they are smart enough to share their ill-gotten gains with the little people along the way who look the other way – so there's no one in power who wants this game to end.  This is obvious to anyone who saw that farce last week when Jamie Dimon went to Capital Hill so all the Congressmen and Senators could apologize to him for wasting his valuable time.  

Jefferson County in Alabama is bankrupt thanks to JPM, Stockton California is now filing for bankruptcy as well with $700M in bond debt going into default.  Tiabbi exposed the auction-rigging that has led to these bankruptcies (as well as those in Europe) in "The Scam Wall Street Learned From the Mafia" and the fact that you hear almost nothing about this in the MSM shows you just how far the Banksters control of the media extends.   

ALL of the major banks were involved in the systematic rigging of bond auctions throughout the country yet very few Americans even know it happened.  They did the same thing in Europe but it's the people who are being blamed for spending money they didn't have – not the people who sold them the loans at unrealistic rates that were essentially a massive Ponzi scheme aimed only at generating fees for the lenders – who were not just lenders but the consultants who deemed the spending programs "necessary and affordable."

The muni bid-rigging investigation described in the article, as large as it is in scope, is


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TGIF – Hail to the Cash!

SPY DAILYWheeeeee – that was fun!

A bit more violent than we expected but now you can see why we went to cash on Wednesday.  We even took a bullish bet on the Qs at the end of the day as we were hoping for a bounce this morning and we had really cleaned up with DIA July $124 puts from the morning Alert to Members, which came in at .95 and ran all the way to $1.85 but we took the money and ran at $1.40 for a nice 47% gain on the day

We also picked up AAPL weekly $570 puts for .50 and those made a quick 40% as well, closing at .70 at the day's end.  

In the afternoon, we took our winnings and played the QQQ next weekly $63s for .75 and they dropped a dime to .65 but we're playing with house money and a stop at .50 on the hopes there will be a rumor of stimulus that spikes the market back up.  

We were too scared to play the Financials bullish with the Moody's downgrade looming but we will be restarting our FAS Money Portfolio today in the hopes that this will be a bottom for the Financials (about $14 on XLF) that we can begin to makes some bets on.  Fas Money was, by far, our most profitable portfolio in the first half of the year, cashing in Wednesday with a virtual $12,175 profit with almost no cash in play (but using margin to sell FAS puts and calls on a regular basis).  

There are still rumors that MS will suffer heavy margin calls.  I say rumors because The Street reports $6.8Bn as a fact but, since Cramer is behind it, I don't believe a word they say.  

Moody's lowered its long-term senior unsecured debt rating for Morgan Stanley to Baa1 from A2, with a negative outlook, while cutting its short-term rating for the firm to P-2 from P-1 but this move was a long time coming and MS stock has already plunged from $21.13 in March to $12.26 in early June and that's very close to the $10 line they hit in 2009 – which they tripled off by June.  

We don't trust MS enough to bet on them directly but, if they DON'T blow up, XLF should do quite well and, even if…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX Index Hits Two 18-Year Support Lines, Creates Large Bullish Reversal

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Has the DAX index from Germany experience a large decline of late? Yes, it has!

Has the decline broken long-term rising support lines? Not so far!

This chart looks at the DAX index on a monthly basis over the past 25-years. Over the past 6-years, it has traded sideways inside of the blue rectangle at (1).

The decline this year saw the DAX hit two 18-year rising support lines at (2) last month, where a large bullish reversal took place.

Until broken, important support remains in play at (2), which is bullish for this key index....



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Zero Hedge

Aaand Its Gone... The Biggest Support For Asset Prices

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Since the passage of “tax cuts,” in late 2017, the surge in corporate share buybacks has become a point of much debate. I previously wrote that stock buybacks were setting records over the past couple of years. Jeffery Marc...



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Phil's Favorites

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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ValueWalk

Activists demand revamp of anti-redlining law

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Over 100 California Community Organizations and Leaders Call for Banking Regulators to Stop Planned Revamp of Anti-Redlining Law during COVID19 Crisis

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Worker, Housing, and Small Business advocates call on all resources to be dedicated to saving lives and responding to Coronavirus

San Francisco--Amongst an unprecedented public health crisis that threatens hundreds of thousands of lives, as small businesses are shuttered across California and the nation, and as millions file for...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.