DIS/Yodi – My brain doesn't work that way. I would want to see something really good, like $110-120 and, otherwise, why do I need DIS when there are other stocks that ARE on sale? As much as I like DIS overall, $141 is $260Bn and they are not "only" dropping $10Bn to the bottom line for 2020 and MAYBE $11Bn in 2021. It's not the kind of stock that will get to $13Bn in less than 5 years so buying it for $260Bn now says that, for the next 5 years, I can't imagine a market event that re-values stocks to 20x earnings. Nope, no thanks…
| Year End 28th Sep | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | CAGR / Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
$m
|
48,813 | 52,465 | 55,632 | 55,137 | 59,434 | 69,570 | 81,350 | 86,571 | 7.34% |
|
$m
|
11,435 | 13,171 | 14,202 | 13,853 | 14,845 | 14,459 | 4.80% | ||
|
$m
|
7,501 | 8,382 | 9,391 | 8,980 | 12,598 | 11,054 | 9,912 | 11,239 | 8.06% |
|
$
|
4.26 | 4.90 | 5.73 | 5.69 | 7.23 | 6.25 | 7.93% | ||
|
$
|
4.29 | 4.92 | 5.79 | 5.70 | 6.94 | 5.01 | 5.43 | 6.13 | 3.17% |
|
%
|
+19.5 | +14.8 | +17.6 | -1.61 | +21.8 | -27.8 | +8.41 | +12.8 | |
|
x
|
28.7 | 26.5 | 23.5 | ||||||
|
|
3.41 | 2.07 | 1.75 | ||||||
How about VIAC? $37.22 is $23Bn and they should make around $3.3Bn this year and more next year. In fact, that's a good one for the LTP:
- Sell 10 VIAC 2022 $32.50 puts for $4 ($4,000)
- Buy 30 VIAC 2022 $35 calls for $7 ($21,000)
- Sell 30 VIAC 2022 $42.50 calls for $4 ($12,000)
That's net $5,000 on the $22,500 spread so the upside potential is $17,500 at $42.50 and the risk is owning 1,000 shares of VIAC for net $37.50 (about where it is now). This is a first round, of course, we hope it gets cheaper and we can sell more puts and add more longs or widen the spread but, if it doesn't – we'll take the $22,500 as we should end up with at least 20 positions in the LTP (plus 20 naked short puts) – even in a "normal market" (we had more like 40 long positions in the last LTP.
Picard starts tonight on CBS All Access – I bet that will get it off the floor as people begin to notice their streaming service.
