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Top Trades for Wed, 03 Dec 2014 09:32

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Top Trades for Wed, 03 Dec 2014 09:32
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Scared/Rms – I'm not looking to scare people but I do want you to be realistic about the risks out there.  What killed people in 2008 was the refusal to accept the fact that the global economy was in real trouble and they kept buying dips as if things were going to magically turn around.  

What does scare me now is that we had NO stimulus then (other than the idiotic Bush tax cuts that drove oil through the roof, which we've only just started recovering from) and now, we have MASSIVE stimulus yet we're already hitting the same troubles we had then.  I don't see how, if we collapse again, that there is enough room in the Global economy for the G20 to double down on bailouts.  

Absolutely I think you should have some gold and plenty of cash available.  Those of us who had cash in the spring of 2009 had the best 5 years in stock market history.  Those who didn't, tended to liquidate then and miss most of the rally and are only just now getting even – if they are lucky.  

I think, if you have 5% of your money in ABX and SLW, for example, if we hit another run of global defaults and debt issues explode, I think that 5% will become 50% over time as gold and silver pop back up when people panic into precious metals.  If not and they continue to decline, then you lose 2.5% but your 50% cash is safe – that's a good hedge!  

ABX is currently $12 and you can sell the 2017 $10 puts for $1.50 for a net $8.50 entry and you can buy the 2017 $13s for $2.40 and sell the 2017 $20s for $1 for net $1.40 so, if you combine those with the puts, you have the 2017 $13/20 bull call spread at $1.40 with the short 2017 $10 puts at $1.50 for a net 0.10 credit on the $7 spread.  

That means, if ABX hits $20 by Jan 2017, you make $7.10 against your 0.10 credit (7,100%) and the net margin on the short puts is just $1, so you are making 710% on margin – which is fantastic.  If ABX goes lower, you have a net entry of $9.90, which is almost 20% below the current price – not bad!  

Worst case is you are assigned 1x of ABX shares at $9.90 and you can risk, for example, owning $9,900 worth of ABX (1,000 shares) and take 10 positions and simply set a stop at net $6 (losing $3,900) and your upside is $7,100 – that's a nice way to play a small allocation.  

On SLW (now $21), you can sell the 2017 $15 puts for $2.25 and use that money to buy the $20/27 bull call spread for $2.20 and it's essentially the same everything as the ABX trade.