by phil - November 26th, 2014 6:14 am
Let's not worry.
We're in the midst of a fantastic bull run so why ruin it with rational thinking? Barry Ritholtz used to be a rational guy but now he shills for Bloomberg (#8 on the Forbes 400 with $35Bn) and posts things like "Current Dow rally below average in both duration and magnitude" in order to encourage the beautiful sheeple to keep BUYBUYBUYing what his boss is SELLSELLSELLing.
I've warned before about how the smart money is leaving in droves while the dumb money piles in. Back on Sept 8th (S&P 2,010), for example, I wrote "Clear Proof of Massive Market Manipulation", saying:
It's pretty similar to what happened every day last week, with a high-volume (relatively) sell-off followed by a recovery on almost no volume into the close, giving us the impression that the markets are flat.
It is unbelievable, as in – something that should not be believed by intelligent people. When you see a magician on stage sawing a woman in half or levitating – you might be amazed at what a good trick it is but you don't start believing in magic, do you? What if that magician asks you to bet your retirement on the fact that he is really levitating people or that his assistant can medically be cut into pieces and reassembled?
You wouldn't risk your money on such obvious fakery, would you? You wouldn't give your hard-earned money to a person whose job it was to deceive you, would you? THEN WHY ARE YOU PUTTING YOUR MONEY INTO THIS FARCE OF A MARKET?
by phil - November 25th, 2014 8:08 am
Another day, another new high.
Yawn. We'd be a lot more impressed if all the gains for the day didn't come pre-market – in the even thinner-traded futures, followed by a day of choppy trading on anemic volume.
Still, it is what it is and what it is is another new high and another record monthly gain and we don't know why but we made $10,000 yesterday in our Short-Term Portfolio as our bullish positions (because we thought we were too bearish last week) came through for us in spades.
$10,000 is, of course, a ridiculous amount of money to make in a single day in a $100,000 porfolio. In part, it's a reflection of the extreme volatility in the options chains, as those prices fluctuate wildly. Since we sell a lot of premium when the VIX is high, we benefit when it gets low again. Also, we're getting closer to January and we have a lot of January plays where time is on our side – it's not really an accident, this is how we set up our trades – they are simply working out better than we expected them to.
Now we're up 70% for the year again and we have to consider whether or not we should take the money and run or just let them ride. To some extent, we're protecting the much larger gains in our $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio, which is up 26% for the year ($130,000), which puts our $70,000 gain in the STP into the proper perspective.
If we cash the STP, then the LTP is unprotected (as it's all bullish) and that's not acceptable but we COULD decide to cash out our longs and that would leave us VERY BEARISH in the STP, probably over-protecting the LTP but that might be a good thing into January.
So, let's consider our STP longs and what we should do with them:
20 USO Jan $29 calls at $1.05, now $1.30 – up 23.8%
by Sabrient - November 24th, 2014 2:16 pm
Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics
With warmer weather arriving to melt the early snowfall across much of the country, investors seem to be catching a severe case of holiday fever and positioning themselves for the seasonally bullish time of the year. And to give an added boost, both Europe and Asia provided more fuel for the bull’s fire last week with stimulus announcements, particularly China’s interest rate cut. Yes, all systems are go for U.S. equities as there really is no other game in town. But nothing goes up in a straight line, not even during the holidays, so a near-term market pullback would be a healthy way to prevent a steeper correction in January.
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.
Last Friday brought a very nice opening pop to U.S. markets when China decided to cut its lending rate, making U.S. assets more attractive to global investors. Moreover, the ECB indicated its willingness to implement greater stimulus measures, including government bond purchases. Japan has slipped into recession with GDP decreasing by -1.6% in Q3 versus expectations of +2.2%. And Germany only expanded by a paltry +0.1%. The euro fell to near 2-year lows versus the U.S. dollar, while the yen fell to new 7-year lows against the dollar.
The combination of economic weakness in these major global economies and increasing U.S. oil production continues to push down the price of oil, and the resulting wealth effect of rising equity prices and low gasoline prices is expected to create a boon for retailers this holiday season. Adding to the seasonal strength for stocks is that corporations tend to do much of their buybacks this time of the year. Also, elevated short interest can provide yet another short-term catalyst.
M&A activity is another catalyst, and last week Allergan (AGN) and Actavis plc (ACT) both rose when ACT agreed to pay about $66 billion for AGN. Also, Halliburton (HAL) announced its acquisition of Baker Hughes (BHI). All four of these companies have been Sabrient favorites and…
by phil - November 24th, 2014 7:53 am
It's a short week.
That means we won't expect much volume and that's good because the volume we had on Friday was all downhill from the open. Friday's volume was almost double the other days of the week and you can see how the TradeBots took full advantage of the gapped up open – courtesy of China and Draghi's 1-2 combo stimulus.
This morning, we're drifting up again – resetting the pins for another knockdown but probably not into the end of the month (Friday), as "THEY" want to post what will end up being one of the strongest months in the market OF ALL TIME!
That's right, we're getting all-time great returns (as evidenced by our Top Trade Alerts) and the hits just keep on coming as more and more stimulus is poured on the fire. That's giving us the third highest p/e in the S&P's history, higher than the crash of 1901, higher than the crashes of 1966 or 2007 but still not quite as overpriced as 1929 and, of course, a far, far cry from the dot com crash of just 14 years ago, when YHOO was $300 a share:
Of course, if we were to throw out the ridiculous 1,000x valuations of the internet darlings of 2000 and we look at the AVERAGE 15.7x for the S&P, then we're simply 80% overvalued to the norm. That's not so terrible, is it? Oh wait, I'm sorry, that's actually pretty much the definition of terrible…
If you are paying a company 27 times what they earn, then it will take you 27 years to get your money back. That's a 4% return on your investment. With rates artificially low (now negative in some countries), 4% returns on capital seem pretty good, so money flows into the markets but, as we discussed in Member Chat this weekend, we're getting more and more divorced from the Global realities that USUALLY matter to the markets. Dangerous waters.
by SWW - November 23rd, 2014 1:52 am
Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the Happy Thanksgiving Edition of Stock World Weekly!
Picture via Pixabay.
by phil - November 22nd, 2014 5:17 am
Happy Thanksgiving (almost)!
We added a new feature last month called Top Trades™ (Members Only) so I thought it would be a good time to see how we're doing as well as give a few tricks and tips to our new subscribers. Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member's Chat Room. These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample. Let's see how they performed so far:
We already reviewed our first Top Trade Alert™ in Thursday's post and our first 7 ideas are already up a combined 3.7% for the month but, officially, GSK was the actual Top Trade that day, and it's already up 6.1% for the month – a great way to get started! Also on Thursday, we checked out out 2nd Top Trade Idea for CAT and, with Friday's 4.27% gain, the stock is already up 9% in a month but, of course, we don't just play boring old stocks at Philstockworld – our option trade Idea was:
As a new trade on CAT, I'd sell the 2017 $80 puts for $7.30 for a very nice $72.70 net entry. That's more than the $5.60 dividend you'd make owning the stock for 2 years and a 26% discount if put to you. That's great as a stand-alone play or it can be paired with the $100/115 bull call spread at $5.50 and you still have a net $1.80 credit (so net $78.20 entry – 20% off) but 100% of the upside over $100 for the next two years.
As of yesterday's close, the $80 puts were $5.70 (up 21.9%) and the bull call spread is now $7.35 for net $1.65 plus the original $1.80 credit is $3.45, up 191% in a month on the option play. Isn't that more fun than just making 9% on the stock?