by Sabrient - March 10th, 2014 12:46 am
Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics
After a requisite knee-jerk selloff, stock market bulls shook off Russia’s military action in Ukraine and Crimea as just another buying opportunity. Even adding the Russian Bear to their arsenal couldn’t give bears the upper hand for long. The S&P 500 large cap index set yet another all-time intraday high and closed at a new record high on Friday. Also, the Russell 2000 small cap index set new record intraday and closing highs last week north of 1200. However, the technical condition is getting overbought, and Sabrient’s SectorCast rankings have moved from bullish to a more neutral bias.
The eagerly-awaited jobs report on Friday showed greater jobs creation than expected in February, and January’s figure was revised higher, as well. Friday was the S&P 500′s fifth record closing high in the past seven sessions. But rather than rally into the close, traders preferred to stay cautious into the weekend given the unstable state of affairs in Ukraine.
Of course, Ukraine is the story de jour and the latest brick in investors’ “wall of worry.” The country now faces a critical crossroads. It has a long and dizzying history of governments and allegiances that is hard for us Westerners to follow or understand. But today, it seems that if the pro-Western majority and new leadership in Kiev are determined to join the European Union, they will face intense pressure to allow Russia to annex the Eastern regions and Crimea. After all, the borders of Ukraine were drawn casually and almost arbitrarily in 1954 when it was all part of the Soviet Union, and these regions today are predominately pro-Russian. But if it is more important to Kiev to keep the borders intact, then it seems the country would need to remain neutral and independent. In spite of the recent escalation in military “exercises” on both sides, investors (at the moment) seem to be of the mind that a broader international war is unlikely.
Among the ten U.S. business sectors, the performance leaders last week were Financial, Basic Materials, and Industrial, which is typical bullish behavior. The S&P 500 is now up over +170% since the March 2009 V-bottom recovery.
by ilene - March 9th, 2014 11:23 pm
By John Mauldin
“The belief that wealth subsists not in ideas, attitudes, moral codes, and mental disciplines but in identifiable and static things that can be seized and redistributed is the materialist superstition. It stultified the works of Marx and other prophets of violence and envy. It frustrates every socialist revolutionary who imagines that by seizing the so-called means of production he can capture the crucial capital of an economy. It is the undoing of nearly every conglomerateur who believes he can safely enter new industries by buying rather than by learning them. It confounds every bureaucrat who imagines he can buy the fruits of research and development.
“The cost of capturing technology is mastery of the knowledge embodied in the underlying science. The means of entrepreneurs’ production are not land, labor, or capital but minds and hearts….
“Whatever the inequality of incomes, it is dwarfed by the inequality of contributions to human advancement. As the science fiction writer Robert Heinlein wrote, ‘Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances that permit this norm to be exceeded – here and there, now and then – are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of society, the people slip back into abject poverty. This is known as bad luck.’
“President Obama unconsciously confirmed Heinlein’s sardonic view of human nature in a campaign speech in Iowa: ‘We had reversed the recession, avoided depression, got the economy moving again, but over the last six months we’ve had a run of bad luck.’ All progress comes from the creative minority. Even government-financed research and development, outside the results-oriented military, is mostly wasted. Only the contributions of mind, will, and morality are enduring. The most important question for the future of America is how we treat our entrepreneurs. If our government continues to smear, harass, overtax, and oppressively regulate them, we will be dismayed by how swiftly the engines of American prosperity deteriorate. We will be amazed
by phil - March 9th, 2014 7:46 am
We got off to a hell of a start.
Part one of our trade review was a very busy week where we went bottom-fishing with 46 trade ideas (mostly bullish) in just one week and only 7 of them were misses for a very nice 84% success rate to start off the month.
Of course bullish trade ideas are like shooting fish in a barrel when the market goes up and up like this – the smart part is that we had 46 of them and that we went heavily bullish in the last week of January, right when we were bottoming – giving us the best possible prices.
That's why these channels are so important to watch, we trade inside of them, playing the odds that the tops and bottoms will hold and we try to catch the turns. That's why, at the moment, we are BEARISH – until and unless we break over the tops of our channels – at which point we can go back to betting on new highs.
Most of the trade ideas we review here are from inside the daily PSW Member Chat Room (and you can join here) but some are right in our morning posts, which you can have delivered to your mailbox via our Report Membership, while it's in progress, at 8:30 ALMOST every morning (some mornings I miss the mail-bot deadline). In fact, today I'll put a couple of **'s next to trade ideas that were in the morning post – just to see how well those work out.
At the moment (7:50 am) our Futures are doing what they usually do in the morning – rising on very low volume. We went long in Member Chat already (6:44) because you don't have to show us the same move 10 times in a row before we finally get it. Already we picked up a nice move off the bottom with our /NKD longs up 50 points already ($250 per contract) and the Dow (/YM)
by SWW - March 9th, 2014 3:05 am
Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Please click on the new Stock World Weekly and sign in with your user name and password.
We discuss the Ukraine/Russia conflict, Bitcoin, and more. We also share some new trade ideas from Phil.
by phil - March 7th, 2014 7:10 am
Sorry but this "rally" is just too much BS for me.
As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, we're running up on ZERO volume in the Futures and then we sell off all day on very low volume (because there are no buyers and the Funds are exiting slowly) and then we have dip at the finish as the ETFs that HAVE to buy at MOC (Market on Close) pricing get shares jammed down their throats by the pumpers.
It's a complete and utter farce and completely ignored by the MSM, especially the Financial Media, who just play along as if none of this matters. While you may consider the manipulation of currency and metals markets to be news (both are under international investigation at the moment) – it doesn't rate a mention in the Financial Media, who's advertising revenue comes mainly from the companies that are being investigated for fraud and manipulation.
You know about the LIBOR scandal, you know Credit Suisse helped their top 1% clients evade taxes (duh!) and finally got caught, you know JP Morgan was fined the GDP of Jamaica for various wrongdoings, as were BAC and other Banksters – yet you still have your money in those banks, don't you? Fraud, manipulation, tax evasion, forging mortgage documents…. it's all just the business the Banksters are in, isn't it? And we accept it – even though we are the people they are committing all these crimes against. What the f*ck is wrong with us?
And these same criminal organizations, these same fraudulent operations – are the same ones who are telling us to put all our money into the stock market by endlessly upgrading the companies they have banking relationships with – like Morgan Stanley's very questionable pumping of TSLA last week, the day before their bond sale – which was underwritten by Morgan Stanley.
There's not even an investigation about that one – it's just business as usual on Wall Street. Normally I don't care, because we love a rigged game – as long as we can figure out how it's rigged and play along with…
by Option Review - March 6th, 2014 3:20 pm