Angela Merkel wins a fourth term in office – but it won’t be an easy one

 

Angela Merkel wins a fourth term in office – but it won't be an easy one

Courtesy of Patricia Hogwood, University of Westminster

Angela Merkel will continue as chancellor of Germany. But following an election that saw the rise of smaller parties – most notably the far right – her fourth term will probably be an eventful one in ways she would not wish for.

Early exit polls show the Union parties (Merkel’s CDU and sister party CSU) in top place with just under 33%. They did nevertheless lose almost 9% over their previous election result of 2013.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), coalition partner to the Union parties, finished a distant second, with just over 20% of the vote. For the SPD, this is a historic low: almost 6% down on the last election. Party leader Martin Schulz failed to come up to scratch in a lacklustre campaign.

Four smaller parties appear to have managed to meet the 5% threshold to qualify for seats in parliament.

The right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved a dubious milestone in post-war German history. With a vote share expected to be just over 13%, some 2% of which was gained in the last days of the campaign, it will be the first overtly far-right nationalist party to enter the federal parliament.

The Left Party (die Linke) and the Green Party (Bündnis ‘90/die Grünen) made marginal gains to score 9% and just over 9% respectively. Big gains went to one party that had been more or less written off after the last election and to another that many commentators hoped never to see in parliament at federal level. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) rose from the ashes to return to parliament under their charismatic new leader Christian Lindner. With 10.5% of the vote, the party more than doubled its tally of the last election.

Forming a government

The new government will need to control 316 seats in the parliament to achieve the majority needed to take office. While probably technically possible, a continuation of the current Grand Coalition (GroKo) between CDU/CSU and SPD now seems unlikely.

Having sent mixed messages before the election, the…
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  • Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

    Kinkistyle

  • I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!

    craigsa620

  • I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.

    Snow

  • I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

    Zucko

  • Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

    Neverworkagain

  • Blessings, ALL: So we have completed two months of 2015. So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015.

    IHS4GOD

  • Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!

    Newthugger

  • The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)

    Chaps

  • There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.

    Jr Mints

  • Phil I must say that it was really nice to have a portfolio that was looking very stable in the face of a rough day for the markets. I ended the day up 0.3% which includes another successful day of futures trading. So with a portfolio of mostly cash, a few of our faves like Apple and LL, JO, TOL, DIS, etc., along with a couple of hedges that paid off nicely today, and my futures trades, I never had to break a sweat during that madhouse today. Yes, by George (or Phil), I may be learning this system!

    Craig

  • Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!

    Kustomz

  • Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

    RMM

  • Sold the BG puts I got yesterday at $1.30 for $2 just now. Might be a little early, but I'm happy with that gain. Thanks Phil.

    Smasher

  • Thanks super helpful re: UGN example…..other inflation/market-correction-defensive-related play you threw out that has jammed UP in less than a month is TITN 6/14 $15 puts, up 40%. Excuse my enthusiasm but haven't had those types of gains in multiple plays in years let alone days doing it on my own…….maybe I should host the PSW infomercial!!!!

    stevegeb200

  • Great call on expe Phil! Went long 50 shares and sold for a nice profit! And Great call on the nkd shorts as well. I didn't use a stop that tight and was able to cover for a $400 gain. Works been keeping me pretty busy and I'm jealous of all the members who are able to check in here more often! It's almost always quite profitable! Looking forward to Vegas!

    Jromeha

  • Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.

    Jomptien

  • Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

    RMM

  • Phil- I want to let you know that you really helped me make some money this morning when I probably would have lost on my own. I was stuck in doctors waiting rooms most of the morning starting at 8AM. By following the game plan you laid out and using my smartphone, I went short on oil whenever we got to 61.50 and long at 61 waiting for the spikes ahead of inventory. When 10:30 rolled around I was out after selling longs at 61.60 a few minutes earlier. I went short at 61.75-61.80 and voila, rode it down to 60.60 or so. Thank you.

    craigsa620

  • Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

    Ben1Be

  • Hey Phil – I ignored your call to sell those AAPL $580s for $1 so not sure whether to thank you or not (just kidding) for my $5 winner. Actually I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart, that was an uncanny call.

    TheChaser

  • Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

    Steve

  • Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke

    Coke

  • I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…

    Kwan

  • Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

    MrMocha

  • I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.

    2Can

  • Phil.... I remember back in March of '09, you stated " Unless you think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, NOW is the time to do your buying". Do you remember ? I took your advice, and bought leap $2.00 calls on F, approximately 200,000 shares using the options, for just pennies. Now that was the best Ford I ever owned.... made over $1 mil - thanks go to you Phil. I now drive a Mercedes but still "love" the Ford.

    1234Gel

  • I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

    Brenteaz

  • Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.

    Chaffey

  • Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

    Tchayipov

  • I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

    Captain Mogul

Twin earthquakes expose Mexico’s deep inequality

 

Twin earthquakes expose Mexico's deep inequality

Courtesy of Luis Gómez Romero, University of Wollongong

Early in the morning on Sept. 16, 1810, priest Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla rang the bell of his church in the small town of Dolores, near Guanajuato, Mexico. His parishioners gathered round, and he urged them to revolt against Spain’s two-year-old Napoleonic government.

Hidalgo’s call to arms, which later became known later as the Grito de Dolores (Cry of Dolores), triggered the Mexican War of Independence. Every September 15, the president of Mexico takes to the balcony of the National Palace in Mexico City to reenact it.

This year, just a week before Independence Day, a historic earthquake struck Mexico’s southern coast, killing nearly 100 people. So President Enrique Peña Nieto added a poignant element to his Grito by including in the incantation a reference to the impoverished states that were most devastated by the quake, crying “Long live the solidarity of Mexicans with Chiapas and Oaxaca!”

This year, the president’s ‘Cry of Pain’ included Oaxaca and Chiapas.

It was a nice twist on tradition, but these two states will need more than expressions of solidarity to recover. The 8.2 magnitude quake is the strongest Mexico has experienced in 100 years, surpassing even the Sept. 19, 1985 earthquake that killed up to 40,000 people in and around Mexico City, according to the highest estimates.

It was also significantly more powerful than the recent 7.1 magnitude earthquake that killed upwards of 200 people in and around Mexico’s capital on September 19.

Natural and man-made disasters

This latest quake shook Mexico City 32 years to the day after the 1985 “big one.” I was 11 years old when the quake hit, and I recall the government of President Miguel de la Madrid reacting with what can only be described as criminal apathy: In the first days after the disaster, he prevented the army from rescuing victims and rejected international aid.

The people of Mexico City, however, took to the streets, distributing food, water and blankets among those who needed them and digging neighbors free from…
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What Should Keep Facebook Shareholders Up At Night

 

What Should Keep Facebook Shareholders Up At Night

Courtesy of 

The power of Facebook advertising – let’s say they can identify 2 billion people around the world based on 200 points of data, which allows them to offer advertisers the holy grail of targeting. Now companies know exactly who is seeing their ads – only the “right” potential consumers. This is unheard of in the history of the world.

Facebook’s shareholders have been rightfully rewarded for the company’s marketing prowess. It now sports a market capitalization of $500 billion – the only two companies worth more are Apple and Microsoft. Exxon, J&J, Google, JP Morgan, Berkshire – they’re all worth less.

So it is true that Facebook has an amazing marketing product and it is also true that the world now fully appreciates this fact.

But what if not everyone agrees to play along? What if this ability to micro-target every living human being to the degree of 200 individual data points is not okay anymore? For example, what if a foreign government – say, Germany – decides that 200 data points is too much information for Facebook to collect and make available about their citizens to advertisers? What if Germany says, “You know what? This is not okay. From now on, you can only utilize 100 of those 200 data points. We don’t want our sovereign citizens targeted to that degree by anyone – dishwashing detergent firms, political parties, special interest groups – it’s too much influence.”

Now what if this happens, and Facebook acquiesces so as to stay out of court, and then a month later Japan says they’d like the same thing? And then the Netherlands? And then the state of Florida? And then the city of Las Vegas? And so on? What if the world begins to make the decision that no entity – corporate or otherwise – ought to have the sort of broad, unchecked free reign that Facebook (and to a lesser extent, Google) has enjoyed over the last few years?

Does Facebook face them all down, one after another, to


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Friday Failure – OPEC Does Not Agree to Extend Production Cuts

This will be interesting.

After saying they would for the last 10 days, driving oil from $47.50 on 9/11 to $51 (7.4%) on Wednesday (now $50.45), OPEC has now decided they will "wait and see" what happens between now and their March meeting.  As U.S. shale oil continues to thrive and seasonal demand wanes, the surplus that has weighed on markets for three years could return. If OPEC doesn’t extend the supply curbs, the market will return to oversupply again, forecasts from the International Energy Agency indicate.  

Our average on the Oil (/CL) Futures shorts is $50.48 on 10 contracts and we're waiting fo the great unwind, which probably won't happen today as the weekend is here but these contracts run until 10/20 and there are 1.267Bn FAKE!!! orders over at the NYMEX in the front four months – so we're pretty confident there will be a catastrophic sell-off at some point.

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Nov'17 50.73 50.78 50.32 50.39


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 09-20-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:02:02 Checking on the Markets
00:06:44 Platinum
00:07:25 Ford
00:08:09 Petroleum Status Report
00:18:01 S&P 500
00:26:14 Crude Oil
00:29:23 USD
00:30:00 EUR
00:34:07 TSLA
00:47:33 Apple
00:52:29 Apple Watch
00:54:24 AAPL Charts
00:56:54 Checking on the Markets
00:58:15 FOMC Statement
01:16:14 Checking on the Markets
01:08:42 Active Trader
01:10:10 Trade Ideas
01:13:58 Bra prices
01:15:27 LB
01:23:48 IBM
01:25:20 WPM
01:27:17 IBM Trade Ideas
01:41:08 Checking on the Markets
01:44:52 XRT
01:48:10 ATI Trade Ideas
01:55:32 AAPL Charts
01:58:43 Russell 2000
02:09:36 TEVA Charts and Trade Ideas
02:14:06 Active Trader

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Thursday – F*cked by the Fed (there’s no other way to put it)!

Well, that's that!  

The great unwind has begun and I was off by $100Bn (20%) yesterday, when I predicted the Fed would aim for $500Bn a year in balance sheet reductions (they are going for $600Bn) although, to be fair, they are gradually stepping up to $600Bn so the net effect will be the same $500Bn a year, which is what we calculated would be the most even a recovering economy could withstand.

Keep in mind that treasuries are only half of the assets the Fed holds, they also have a lot of stock they need to dump and a whole lot of real estate and mortgages they need to find buyers for as well and you KNOW what happens when a seller HAS to sell to raise cash by a certain time – they are simply not going to get great prices for the assets they are dumping.  

It's a lot easier to write a check to buy things than it is to sell them – ask anyone who's thrown a garage or estate sale.  Whatever the Fed ends up writing off will be losses that transfer to Treasury and ultimately add to our deficit.  None of this is accounted for in Trump's already pure-fantasy budget and, in fact, the Fed ADDED $97.7Bn in profits to the Treasury last year, reducing our defict.  If instead they lose $100Bn a year – that's a $200Bn swing in our deficit.  That's 5% of Government spending – no small item!

The market seems oddly calm about all this but, as we discussed in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (where we shorted Oil (/CL) at $51 and the Russell (/TF) at 1,445), the process for large funds and banksters involves several meetings and perhaps board votes before they begin to unwind their own assets – so the real reaction is likely to be delayed into next week.  

The quick reaction was a 1% drop in the indexes, a half-point drop in bonds (higher rates) and goaaaaallllll!!! on our Dollar trade, as it blasted up to our 92.50 target from the Morning Report and that was good for same day gains of over
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Phil's Favorites

OPEC's Premature Victory Lap

 

OPEC’s Premature Victory Lap

By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price 

OPEC met on Friday to review the progress of their work over the past 9 months, assessing whether or not they should extend their current production cuts beyond the March 2018 expiration date.

OPEC gathered in Vienna at a time when the oil market arguably looks tighter than it has in a very long time. Demand is growing at a rapid clip – increasing at a 1.6 million-barrel-per-day rate this year – global supply fell in August, and inventories have drained at a much swifter pace in recent months. Kuwait’s oil minister Issam Almarzooq ...



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Zero Hedge

Colorado Landfills Contain Radioactive Substances From Oil Sector

Courtesy of Zainab Calcuttawala, OilPrice.com

(As posted at Zero Hedge)

Landfills in Colorado have begun to fill their space with low-level radioactive substances from oil and gas activities, state health officials have said, according to the local news site the Daily Camera.

After a series of meetings with local officials, state authorities have ...



more from Tyler

Chart School

Russell 2000 Hits Its Target

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday delivered the upside target of 1,450 I was looking for in the Russell 2000. Next will be some follow through in line with the S&P and Dow breakouts, but this will require a resistance break which will be harder than a resistance tag. Technicals are healthy and relative strength is working strongly in Small Caps favour.


The S&P had a quiet Friday; volume was lighter, technicals are strong, and Thursday's sell off was stalled by Friday's recovery. However, the S&P continued its relative underperformance...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

Dotard Vs. Madman: The Linguistic War Between Trump And Kim

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The war of words between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea has escalated… again. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened to “tame with fire” U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he referred to as “mentally deranged U.S. dotard.”

Gage Skidmore / Flickr

An official statement released by Kim on Thursday came as an apparent response to Trump’s newly announced eco...



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Insider Scoop

Healthcare Stocks Spike After McCain Announces 'No' Vote On Graham-Cassidy Proposal

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AET Your Easy Guide To Credit Suisse's New Top Stocks List Vornado Realty Has An Intri...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Jamie Dimon Faces Market Abuse Claim Over "False, Misleading" Bitcoin Comments

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A week after Jamie Dimon made headlines by proclaiming Bitcoin a "fraud" and anyone who owns it as "stupid," the JPMorgan CEO faces a market abuse claim for "spreading false and misleading information" about bitcoin.

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past week, you will be well aware of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's panicked outburst wi...



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Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks" But TNN Says "Not So Fast"

What do you think? (There's a comment section below )

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

******

Rebutal by The Nattering Naybob, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>