The Fat Pitch: Weekly Market Summary

 

Weekly Market Summary

Courtesy of  

Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices will often jump 10% or more higher and also attempt to retest the lows.  Volatility will likely remain elevated for several months. But the fall in equity prices, which has knocked investor sentiment to its knees, opens up an attractive risk/reward opportunity for investors. Further weakness, which is quite possible, is an opportunity to accumulate with an eye toward year-end. However, a quick, uncorrected rally in the next week or two would likely fail.

* * *

Equities ended the week higher: SPY and DJIA rose 1% and NDX rose over 3%. Outside the US, Europe gained 1% and EEM gained 3%. The biggest mover was oil, which gained 12%.

The last two weeks have been remarkable. On August 17, SPY closed less than 1% from its all-time closing high. A week later it had lost 11%. And then three days later it had regained half of those loses, jumping 6%.

A drop that much, that quickly, is very rare. According to David Bianco, it has happened only 9 times in the more than 20,000 trading days in the past 80 years. All of these occurrences were precipitated by (perceived or real) political or economic crises.
 

That was the case now as well. Since the Chinese Yuan depreciation began through the low in equities on Monday, 92% of the fall in SPY occurred overnight. Cash hours were nearly flat. The fall in equities had very little to do with domestic earnings or economic reports. It was a reaction to events overseas.

Our view has been that the Yuan depreciation (just 3% to date) is unlikely to have a long lasting affect on the US stock market or its fundamentals. Exports to China account for less than 1% of US GDP. Only 2% of revenues for S&P companies is directly derived from China (data from Barrons).
 

Moreover, the current situation is nothing like the Asian financial crisis in 1997. We detailed this last week with the conclusion that even that…
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Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!

- Gel1


I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

- Pharmboy


GLD I took out my callers and rolled down my longs this morning, woo hoo!

- Ephmen85


Phil- I want to let you know that you really helped me make some money this morning when I probably would have lost on my own. I was stuck in doctors waiting rooms most of the morning starting at 8AM. By following the game plan you laid out and using my smartphone, I went short on oil whenever we got to 61.50 and long at 61 waiting for the spikes ahead of inventory. When 10:30 rolled around I was out after selling longs at 61.60 a few minutes earlier. I went short at 61.75-61.80 and voila, rode it down to 60.60 or so. Thank you.

- craigsa620


That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

- Kwan


Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.

- Smasher


Newer member here, but just wanted to say thank you too. I've learned so much and I hope you'll be around for a long time helping us learn along the way.

- Where


I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.

- 2Can


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman


Phil – just wanted to say a sincere thank you for teaching me how to offset, hedge, roll, and not panic. My account is up 10% in the last two weeks, and far from panic, this is becoming great fun. Thanks again,

- Deano


Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!

- OnWisconsin


Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!

- Barfinger


Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!

- zeroxzero


Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

- Chasw


Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

- Tchayipov


Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!

- RevTodd64


Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.

- Craigsa620


PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.

- Winston


Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

- RMM


I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

- Zucko


I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

- Jerseyside


Simply the best blogger with the greatest group of members a person could surround himself with on trading day. I've been trading for quite some time now and the insights & suggestions offered by Phil and the members keep me on a continuous learning cycle.

- DDay


I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.

- Snow


Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404

- Jordan


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instict which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander


It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.

- Pirateinvestor


Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

- HJ Kobbeman


Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!

- Zeroxzero


Phil / TNA – On Monday you put out the TNA BCS 41/47. As I mentioned I work during market hours so on Tuesday morning on my way out the door (premarket) I put in an advanced TOS '1st trigger sequence' order to fill the BCS. I can control the entry using this method vs. the vertical entry that TOS allows for the BCS. I filled the June 41 long call but never filled the 47 short call. I let that ride into today. OMG ..TNA popped 7.5%!… the $3.60 entry is almost a double! Tomorrow will be a OCO bracket to get out of TNA before Ben speaks. I should be able to preserve 85% – 100% on the trade. For the income portfolio plays in my IRA's, doing very well… I do like collecting premium! Well done and thanks!

- JFawcett


Phil - FAS - I dont know whether to be happier I averaged down and sold calls or that I got myself out of FAZ the other day…thanks for that help

- BCFla




Phil’s Stock World Trading Webinar 8-25-15

This week's major topics: 5% Rule, Short-term and Butterfly Portfolios, Trade Ideas, MSFT, NASDAQ, SPX, S&P, AMZN, WMT, BBY, AAPL, China, and Global Implications

Subscribe to The Phil's Stock World YouTube Channel here.

  • 00:00 Disclosure
  • 2:40 Butterfly portfolio, review positions, MSFT, WMT trade ideas
  • 17:28 Hedges
  • 24:50 Short-term portfolio, review positions, hedging
  • 35:00 NASDAQ, AAPL, S&P, AMZN, WMT, McDonald's, Uber trade Ideas
  • 58:00 MSFT, IBM, HP, trade ideas
  • 1:09:20 Hedge SPX trade ideas, review positions
  • 1:21:15 BBY, AMZN, AAPL, trade ideas
  • 1:33:10 NASDAQ 15% drop, 5% rule
  • 1:43:58 China, global implications
  • 1:53:26 Richmond Fed, Home sales, S&P Home Price index, FHFA Housing index




Dumb Money Redux

 

Dumb Money Redux

Courtesy of Joshua Brown

engineer_syllogism

Cartoon by XKCD

Responses are pouring in from my post Computers are the new Dumb Money. A few of the quants I know told me the link was hitting their inboxes all day from friends and colleagues around the industry. A few desk traders I talk to had some anecdotes backing my assumptions up. One guy, a “data scientist”, was furiously angry, meaning he probably blew himself up this week or has some other deep-rooted insecurity about what he’s trying to do and needed to vent.

If you haven’t read it yet, go here: Computers are the new Dumb Money (TRB)

One thing worth keeping in mind about algorithmic trading is that there will always be some strategies that are better executed than others and many that will thrive while their competitors are chopped to pieces. In this respect, they’re no different than any other traders or funds.

For example, the quant funds that were probably most injured this week were those who were in the business of selling volatility or gamma. If they’re short gamma, they end up having to dump a ton of stock when volatility breaks out and prices dive. This kind of action is what exacerbates declines and makes a down-2% day into a down-4% day – especially when everyone is doing the same thing (see ‘portfolio insurance, 1987’). If they’re short vol, then they could be running one of those fabled strategies that picks up nickels fairly consistently until the steamroller flattens them – taking in options premiums in small, yet reliable amounts, and then a crisis forces them to actually make good on all that insurance they’ve been writing.

This has happened before, it will happen again. It doesn’t mean that all quant or algorithmic trading is foolish. It just means that the alchemy still isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

Sunrise, sunset. 

[Picture via Pixabay]





The Data Still Says “Go”

 

The Data Still Says “Go”

Courtesy of Joshua Brown

Ethan Harris, US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, put this out to clients two days ago:

As the markets continue to sell-off, an increasingly popular view among investors is that the Fed won’t hike until next year. Global growth is weak, Chinese policy mistakes have destabilized their markets and the US equity market has finally succumbed to the pressure, with a roughly 10% correction. Thus far only a handful of economics teams at major houses have shifted their Fed call to next year, but both market pricing and most clients we talk to see a significant delay in Fed tightening.

We think some delay is possible, but a big delay is unlikely. It is always dangerous to make big forecast changes during periods of turmoil in markets. It is a bit like going food shopping right before dinner—your gut, instead of your mind, starts driving your decisions. Yes, if the Fed met today, they would very likely take a wait and see attitude and delay hiking. Why create further market volatility? Why not wait to see whether this is an economically important shock? However, there are three weeks before the Fed decides. If the markets stabilize, the Fed outlook will feel a lot different.

In the 48 hours since this note, the US economic data has continued to come in stronger than expected. Yesterday’s 3.7% revised print for 2Q GDP growth was the obvious highlight, along with some new data this morning on consumption and personal income.

WSJ:

Personal spending, measuring how much Americans paid for everything from home rent to dental care, rose 0.3% in July from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday. Consumption climbed 0.3% in June and 0.8% in May.

Personal income, reflecting Americans’ pretax earnings from salaries and investments, climbed 0.4%, replicating the gains of the prior three months. Within that category, workers’ wages and salaries climbed at the fastest pace since last November, as did their disposable income.

Combine this with a sanguine James


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TGIF – Yesterday’s Fake GDP Number Allow Windows to Be Dressed

Oops, sorry, I'm not supposed to do this.  

Sometimes we know things in advance and we are not allowed to talk about them until the data is release and Personal Income and Spending reports don't come out until 8:30 but we already know Personal Income and Spending are heading lower, not higher as expected, because it's right in yesterday's GDP Report, which shows Real Annualized Per Capita Disposable Income at $37,843, which is down $3 from the last estimate, not up at all.

Overall Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which includes our Corporate Masters, increased just 0.6% in the 2nd quarter, compared to 0.4% in the first half.  This does not seem like the kind of number that would lead us to have a MASSIVE upward revision in GDP – from 2.3% to 3.7% in the second estimate and up 3.1% (400%) from Q1's anemic 0.6% growth rate.  

Category Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2
GDP 3.7% 0.6% 2.1% 4.3% 4.6%


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Computers are the new Dumb Money

 

Computers are the new Dumb Money

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker

You want the box score on this latest weekly battle in the stock market?

No problem: Humans 1, Machines 0

Because if you think it was human beings executing sales of Starbucks (SBUX) down 22% on Monday’s open, you’re dreaming. And if you believe that it was thinking, sentient people blowing out of Vanguard’s Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) at a one-day loss of 26% at 9:30 am, you’ve got another thing coming.

By and large, people did the right thing this week. They recognized that JPMorgan and Facebook and Netflix should not have printed at prices down 15 to 20% within the first few minutes of trading and they reacted with buy orders, not sales. They processed the news about the 1200+ individual issue circuit-breakers and they let the system clear itself.

Rational, experienced people understood that an ETF with holdings that were down an average of 5% should not have a share price down 30%.

Conversely, machines can only do what they’ve been programmed to do. There’s no art, there’s no philosophy and there’s no common sense involved. And volatility-shy trading programs have been programmed to de-risk when prices get wild and wooly, period. Their programmers can’t afford to have an algo blow-up so the algos are set up to pull their own plug, regardless of any qualitative assessment during a special situation that is obvious to the rest of the marketplace.

Warren Buffett once explained that “Paradoxically, when ‘dumb’ money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb.” Ordinary investors, in the aggregate, have learned their limitations the hard way over the last few decades. This is why 25% of all invested assets are in passive investment vehicles and Vanguard is now the largest fund family on the planet. Retail players gave up on the fever dream of Mad Money long ago; Mom and Pop are now investing in the missionary position from here on out.

Software, on the other hand, has not learned this lesson. The problem with computers is that they can’t be…
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Phil's Favorites

Greek Snap Election Confusion; Tsipras' Questionable Gamble; Unwieldy Coalition Coming Up?

Courtesy of Mish.

Questionable Gamble

In the wake of reneging on major election promises, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras resigned and called for snap elections. He did so out of fear of losing a vote of confidence that would have forced the same result down the road.

In addition, Tsipras wanted the vote out of the way before further rounds of pension cuts and tax hikes took their toll on the economy.

His gamble now appears questionable.

Please consider Alexis Tsipras Rallies Supporters as Syriza Takes Knock in Polls.
Alexis Tsipras tried to rally Syriza party members behind him at the weekend in advance of a snap election, as opinion polls reflected deepening disappointment among voters with his gove...



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Zero Hedge

It Gets Even Uglier In Canada

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by testosteronepit.

Wolf Richter   www.wolfstreet.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter

The Province of Alberta, the epicenter of the Canadian oil bust, may be sliding into something much worse than a plain-vanilla recession. And it’s not exactly perking up the rest of Canada.

Layoffs are already cascading through the oil patch, as companies are retrenching and adjusting to the new reality. New vehicle sales are plummeting. And home sales are ...



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Chart School

Rally Stalls Out

Courtesy of Declan.

After all the volatility during the week, Friday's action was a little reprieve. Markets sit a point where shorts will fancy their chances, although further upside should not be viewed as surprising given the level of volatility markets experienced last week. If there is an indication bears are going to come back with a vengeance, it's that buying volume has been well down on prior selling.

The Nasdaq finished on former trading range support, turned resistance. Watch for a short squeeze from this level, up to the 200-day MA.


The Nasdaq 100 may have given an indication of what to expect on Monday as it started to edge more into t...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

After all that, the stock market finished the week higher (Business Insider)

The stock market had a wild ride this week. And it ultimately ended up even better than it started. 

This week we saw a 1,000 point drop in the Dow in minutes, another drop of around 600 points in an hour of trading, and another day that saw one of the largest single-day point gains for the Dow in history.

Worried about your investments? Here’s the best advice (Market Watch)

The market is on a ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dangerous Place for a kiss of resistance, says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Anyone noticed its been a wild week? Has anything been proven with all the volatility the past 5-days?

What happens at (1) below, could tell us a good deal about what type of damage did or didn’t take place this week!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The large decline on Monday cause the S&P 500 to break support of this rising channel.

The mid-week rally pushed the S&P higher and as of this morning it is kissing the underside of old support as resistance now, near the 50% retracement level of the large decline over the past few weeks.

Why could th...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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ValueWalk

Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Battered After "Governance Coup"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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