Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member

Failing Friday – Rejected at our Strong Bounce Lines – Again!

SPY  5  MINUTE

But I don't know if I can
Open up enough to let you in
Here come those tears
Here come those tears again
Just walk away  - JB

As noted by Dave Fry yesterday:

 "This is the kind of stuff market bulls put out which is the amnesia drug to help you forget crappy earnings from important companies and buy stocks. So after the post-Fed Meeting decline the short squeeze to keep January positive was launched. At the same time there was a report per Sen. Charles Schumer that Yellen privately told democrats there would no rate increase soon. That launched buy programs."

1-29-2015 6-52-19 PM SP500And, of course, after a BS rise in the markets on Thursday, we are giving up essentially all of those gains in the Futures (8:15) ahead of the Preliminary Q4 GDP Report, which has NO chance of matching the 5% Q3 Report and may even disappoint those looking for 3.2% growth based on the earnings reports we've seen so far.  

In short, the Fed is so terrified of failing our weak bounce line on the S&P (now 2,006), that they feel the need to talk up the market every time it's threatened.  Rather than take comfort in the fact that "the Fed has our backs" like most traders seem to – we at PSW are wondering what exactly are they trying to protect us from and, more importantly, what happens to us if they are not up to the task?  

As Genesis (the group, not the bible) reminds us "It's an illusion, it's a game or a reflection – of someone else's name" and more importantly, they warn us "Baby, there's a hole in there somewhere."  We KNOW there's a hole in there somewhere but we also know the Central Banksters are hiding something and, rather than be encouraged by this and going all in on the markets – we are remaining "Cashy and Cautious" for the 2nd quarter in a row.  

8:30 Update:  I was going to say "Maybe we're wrong" but screw that, we're not.  GDP just came out at 2.6%, close to 20%…
continue reading





GMCR – Just bought back my Jan $90 callers on GMCR for a nice $10,000 gain. Thanks for the recommendation Phil! It was nice to cash in on a momo.

- Palotay


I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.

- KMisko


I subscribed to Phils Stock World full service for a year or so and found that it was extremely helpful. Now I just get the Stock World Weekly summary, which I find invaluable. Phil does not baby people and certainly can't make someone into a successful stock operator who does not make the effort on their own behalf, but he is extremely generous with his time in answering newbie questions. Although I found it difficult to follow and implement all his trades in real time, what I did find was that once you got the hang of his methodology and way of thinking, you could work out your own trades and be quite successful. Even just using his patent Rule Number One* alone is worth its weight in gold. Rule Number Two is even better.

- Rookie IRA Investor


Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

- MrMocha


Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

- Bjkeck


Hello Phil, Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!

- Microflux


Phil, I don't know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I'm up significantly in my portfolio and I've never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser


Simply the best blogger with the greatest group of members a person could surround himself with on trading day. I've been trading for quite some time now and the insights & suggestions offered by Phil and the members keep me on a continuous learning cycle.

- DDay


Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…

- Arivera


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman


Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.

- Winston


Hi Phil, Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling. You are the man (of the people)!

- Howard Roake


Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

- Steve


My watch list looks like a grid where Phil's recommendations went UP and everything else went DOWN! It looked something like an ad for Philstockworld. I am half in cash, followed the recommendations (AAPL TASR YHOO) on a 20K portfolio and still up 1% for the day. Thanks!

- Sn0gr00ve


USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88


Thanks Phil another great week of guiding us!

- Steven Parker


AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

- Cap


Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!

- Louis631


I doubled down on our USO June $35 puts on Tuesday afternoon and listened to your posting yesterday and sold 1/2 midday and the rest I sold (luckily) at the top of the market yesterday with the last 1/4 of my contracts at 100% return in less than one day!

- Samlawyer


Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

- JWick1981


Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

- Gel1


Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you! I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure. I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options. You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

- Redfern1


I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.

- 2Can


Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )

- Iflantheman & Gel1


I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.

- Gel1


On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman


Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!

- Singapore Steve


Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

- Josiah


Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.

- Craigsa620


Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.

- Iflantheman




An ETF Rush to Bet on Insiders

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

From  ETFTrends.com: “Betting on insider buying is again proving to be an efficacious strategy as the Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (NYSEArca: KNOW) has been noticeably less bad than the S&P 500 to start 2015. Add to that, investors are warming to the merits of KNOW’s insider sentiment strategy.” [Editor's note: KNOW tracks the Sabrient Multi-cap Insider/Analyst Quant-Weighted Index (SBRQAM)]. Read article





In the News: An ETF Rush to Bet on Insiders

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

(ETFTrends.com by Todd Shriber): “Betting on insider buying is again proving to be an efficacious strategy as the Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (NYSEArca: KNOW) has been noticeably less bad than the S&P 500 to start 2015. Add to that, investors are warming to the merits of KNOW’s insider sentiment strategy.” [Editor's note: KNOW tracks the Sabrient Multi-cap Insider/Analyst Quant-Weighted Index (SBRQAM)]. Read article





Faltering Thursday – Weak Bounce Lines Failing After Fed

This is not a good trend

We are making lower highs and may be on our way to lower lows as the weak bounce lines we predicted two weeks ago (using our fabulous 5% Rule™) begin to fail.  In case you need a refresher, our technical lines in the sand are:

  • Dow 17,280 (weak) and 17,460 (strong)
  • S&P 2,006 (weak) and 2,027 (strong)
  • Nasdaq 4,608 (weak) and 4,656 (strong) 
  • NYSE 10,560 (weak) and 10,670 (strong) 
  • Russell 1,172.50 (weak) and 1,185 (strong)

Looks like it's just those last 3 weak bounce lines holding us up but, as noted in previous posts, we already flipped back to bearish as our strong bounce lines failed – that's what they are there for!  Tuesday, for example, I told you we were shorting Dow Futures (/YM) at 17,550 and yesterday we fell below 17,100.  Futures contracts on the Dow pay $5 per point so that 450-point dip was good for a quick $2,250 per contract profit in less than 48 hours.   Our call to short /TF (Russell Futures) at 1,200 have already produced $3,000 per contract gains as well.  

We'll be discussing Futures Trading in a FREE Live Webinar today at Noon (EST) –


continue reading





Our Stock of the Year Turns out to be the Best Stock of the Year!

Apple knocked it out of the park! 

Last night, AAPL reported the most profitable quarter of any company in history – EVER!!! – making $18.04Bn in the last 3 months of 2014.  That's $8.3M per hour in PROFIT with almost $1Bn/day in revenues ($74.6Bn for the quarter).  The company made $3.06 for each $109 share and that was already up 10% since last Q.  

I'm sure NOW it is obvious why AAPL was our Trade of the Year in 2012 ($52 when we made that pick) as well as 2013 ($72) and again this December, even though it was alread hitting $110 after the split. Of course, we didn't just play the stock at PSW, we played the options and our Top Trade Idea for Dec 17th was:

  • 20 2017 $90/120 bull call spreads at $13.50 ($27,000)
  • 20 short 2017 $85 puts at $9.50 ($19,000) 

Our 2013 Trade of the Year is pictured on the left and made the full 614% expected and our 2014 Trade of the Year parlayed that money into the following:

  • 10 2016 $450/600 bull call spreads at $65 ($65,000)
  • 10 short 2016 $450 puts for $41 ($41,000)

That trade is already 100% in the money and will make the full $126,000 (525%) if AAPL holds $85.72 (post split), which is why we were able to be be nice and aggressive with our 2015 Trade of the Year, going for another 650% if
continue reading





Beware The Correction Of False Prices

Beware The Correction Of False Prices 

Courtesy of Charles Gave of Gavekal Dragonomics

I want to start this paper by reiterating a few of my strongly held convictions about the role of central bankers:

  • Economics is a branch of logic, itself a branch of philosophy, and not a branch of astrology (the good case) or mathematics (the bad case).
  • So when I see the guardians of the Temple of Mammon—otherwise known as central bankers—following an illogical policy, I am mesmerized. I start to have doubts, either about my ability to follow a path of logical reasoning, or about the sanity of the current breed of central bankers. As far as the first option goes, our readers can decide, and the market will be the ultimate judge. As for the second, allow me to make a few remarks…

Four basic postulates for central bankers

To think ‘logically’ one generally starts with a few postulates learnt from experience. What should these postulates be for central bankers?

  1. I expect central bankers to know that the future is unknowable. This has been generally accepted wisdom at least since the time of the New Testament: “But of that day and hour knoweth no man.”
  2. Since Karl Popper, central bankers should know that the amount of risk in a system is roughly constant over time and that any effort to minimize risk or volatility at any point in time (usually just before an election) will lead to its more forceful re-emergence later on (hopefully after the election). In this sense an economic system is much like one of Alexander Calder’s mobiles: if you restrict the motion of one of its branches, any disturbance of the system will lead to much bigger movements elsewhere.
  3. Since Knut Wicksell, central bankers should know that the greater the difference between the ‘natural’ interest rate and the ‘market’ rate, the bigger the subsequent booms and busts. If sustained, a false price for the cost of money increases the risk in a system exponentially. A false price for interest rates leads to a false price for the exchange rate. From there all prices become false and the economy moves ex-growth,


continue reading






 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Greeks Turn to Gold on Bank Bail-in and Drachma Risks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

The Greek stock market is down over 36% year to date; the risk of global contagion in the event of a Greek exit is very real. Ordinarily such a crisis would require a massive coordinated effort from global stakeholders, perhaps directed by the IMF or some other pan-national financial body. But not in this case; the rhetoric is nationally-based and biased without unity of purpose across finance ministries. Recent official soundings from the UK and German governments saying that exposure to Greece is limited only underscores the depth of denial, ignorance and lack of consensus that exists within the euro area. A Greek exit from the euro would profoundly weaken the euro experiment and create a dangerous precedent for a...



more from Tyler

Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages I track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the open on the last day of the month, three S&P 500 strategies are now signaling "invested" -- unchanged from last month. Two of the five of the Ivy Portfolio ETFs, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) and PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC), are signal "cash" -- also unchanged from last month.

If a position is less than 2% from a signal, it is highlighted in yellow.


Note: My inclusion of the S&P 500 index updates is intended to illustrate a popular moving moving-average timing strategy. The index signals also give...



more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With "Rottenly Constructed" Troika; Mish's Game Theory Math

Courtesy of Mish.

Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’

It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners.

For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’, Yanis Varoufakis Says
Greece will no longer co-operate with the “troika” of international lenders that has overseen its four-year bailout programme, the country’s finance minister said.

Yanis Varoufakis also said Greece would not accept an extension of its EU bailout, which expires at the end of February, and without which Greek banks could be shut off from European Centr...



more from Ilene

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Sabrient

In the News: An ETF Rush to Bet on Insiders

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

(ETFTrends.com by Todd Shriber): "Betting on insider buying is again proving to be an efficacious strategy as the Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (NYSEArca: KNOW) has been noticeably less bad than the S&P 500 to start 2015. Add to that, investors are warming to the merits of KNOW's insider sentiment strategy." [Editor's note: KNOW tracks the Sabrient Multi-cap Insider/Analyst Quant-Weighted Index (SBRQAM)]. Read article

...

more from Sabrient

Market Shadows

What Would You Do?

What Would You Do?

Courtesy of Paul Price

Suppose you had the technical ability and raw materials to print up counterfeit dollars, euros or yen that were identical to the real things. Assume you could spend them as fast as you could create them with no fear of any repercussions.

Would you prudently print up only as much fresh currency as you needed for your current lifestyle? Would you create just a bit more than that to help relatives or those in need?

It is most likely you’d have your printing press running 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Becoming the richest person in the world would confer great power upon you.

You could rationalize this action because you plan to use the money for good purposes. Imagine the warm feeling you’d get by giving every person in America one million do...



more from Paul

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 26th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Digital Currencies

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services

So as I was saying yesterday (Bitcoin: The Biggest Clown Show In History?), Bitcoin has several obstacles on the path to potential success as an alternative currency. But I forgot to mention hacking and theft at Bitcoin exchanges and other technical problems. This is related to the lack of government backing and the fact that the value of Bitcoins is based entirely on confidence.  

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services 

By 



more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



more from Pharmboy

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

more from SWW

Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



more from Caitlin

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>