Thank GDP It’s Friday!

Can one report pull us out of a slump?

As you can see on the S&P 500 chart, we've gone nowhere since early September, which is where we landed after going nowhere all summer and then dropping a quick 2.5% on the Brexit, from which we recovered quickly before grinding back down to the exact same spot – so I guess that was the right reaction after all.

In between we've hear all sorts of amazing BS as "analysts" try to explain the up and down gyrations of the market and we've heard just as many prediction about where the market was going and, despite the fact that 90% of those people were wrong, most of you are still looking to see where those same idiots think the market is going next.  Why?  Really, why?  I just don't get it.

Back on September 1st I asked: "Are you the dumb money?", noting that the "smart money" was getting out of equities at a rapid rate – even as we were making new highs.   That was the day after I warned about: "Window Dressing Wednesday – End of Month Market Prop Job" and, by the way, there's a great chance to get into that UNG play at the same prices they were back then – still a great trade!  

On August 23rd, I wrote: "Technical Tuesday – 2,200 or Bust!" and the market topped out the next day at 2,193.81 and we are 2.7% below that mark this morning at 2,133.04 – no "bust" yet, just a minor correction.  Oddly enough, we did have a lot of bullish picks in that post and most of them are still playable.  

On Sept 12th, I wrote: " Monday Market Movement – Hedging for Disaster" and laid out the following hedge with the S&P at 2,160 and the Russell at 1,235:

  • Buy 50 (more) TZA Jan $30 calls for $3.15 ($15,750) 

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  • Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.


  • Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...


  • Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.


  • A truly great website with a lot of information for investors. Whether you are a novice, seasoned, or a professional there is a lot to be gained about stock options and options trading from this very informative website.


  • GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.


  • I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.


  • Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,


  • Great calls this week!


  • I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.


  • Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!


  • Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!


  • I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals). In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.


  • Have been a member for about 6 months or there abouts. Signed up for a quarter at first and then for a year. To me, and it's only my opinion, it's an investment and I have made the membership fees back many times over on the strategy advice. Since joining and implementing the strategy of buy/writes and hedges I have cut my portfolio losses for the year and have a really good chance of going positive this year. If I would have continued down the road I was on, I would still have been fumbling around without a strategy and completely inept in what I was doing. I feel now the strategy is working and I am far more comfortable with the risks I am taking. I still have a lot to learn but I feel the fees have been one of the best investments I have made. The returns have been fantastic. Still have problems with the politics but hey nobody is perfect


  • As a fellow "low-end" investor I like Phil's Buy/Write strategy on solid stocks. Before I came here I loved to try to "figure things out" with very little success "TRYING TO FIGURE THINGS OUT"! I traded too much and fell in love with stocks that "should have done" what they didn't do. Now a majority of my accounts are in Buy/Writes suggested here or cash (waiting for a better time for more Buy/Writes). I use 15-20% of my total holding to short term trade and hedge. This is manageable with my full time job as a business owner. I have found Phil's system a more discipline way to achieve the returns I want without relying on my ability (more like inability to "figure things out").


  • I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.


  • Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…


  • Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...


  • I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…


  • Phil// Cashing out of my LT holdings have been going on for over two weeks. However, I have elected not to cash all of the holdings including my AAPL, Jan 16 Short Puts at $470 and $480. Plus, I am being opportunistic in selectively putting on those positions for beat down stocks by selling 2016 Puts. That said, YTD harvested profits now stand at $135k on a current account balance of $683K or a 19.81% YTD return. Thanks for your expertise in teaching me how to be patient, be the banker, but also not being greedy, cashing out and harvesting profits.


  • Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm. In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.


  • Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,


  • GLD I took out my callers and rolled down my longs this morning, woo hoo!


  • Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!


  • Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )

    Iflantheman & Gel1

  • Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast! I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.


  • Hey Phil - writing to thank you! First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable! I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.


  • New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Remember – trade of the year is one he's virtually sure of, and he rarely misses on those


  • Thank you Nantucket. It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. Phil is the Great One, but the membership is absolutely amazing! Had I known this ahead I would probably log in as "awe struck" everyday.


  • Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.


  • Thanks, I managed to make 2k today so I am happy…and feel like I am finally getting it. New equipment and a quiet place to work helps a lot. I am happy for all the members that took your /NKD advice….that was fun I am sure! coke Take your vitamins…I don't know how you do all this! but, keep it up!

    Coke Weekly Trading Webinar Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-26-16

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here!

Major Topics:

00:01:39 Checking on the Markets
00:03:16 Bounce Lines on the Markets
00:09:30 Stocks
00:09:41 Natural Gas
00:10:44 CL trade Ideas
00:12:57 Neutralising TSLA for earnings
00:16:23 TSLA Trade Ideas
00:18:34 UNG
00:21:19 US Weather Forecast Maps
00:23:07 UNG Charts
00:25:54 UNG Trade Ideas
00:29:05 Petroleum Status Report
00:33:56 Wells Fargo Strategy
00:41:10 BAC Trade Ideas
00:46:44 SONC Charts
00:48:08 SONC Trade Ideas
00:51:58 SPWR
00:56:12 SPWR Trade Ideas
00:59:36 Market News
01:02:18 Auto Sales Forecast
01:03:25 TM Charts
01:05:57 TM Trade Ideas
01:07:29 Market News
01:10:22 Active Trader: TF, ES, CL, NQ
01:15:00 Companies on Future Trades: Robots (AI)
01:19:15 IBM Charts
01:25:38 NGZ6 Trade Ideas
01:27:33 Elio Motors
01:31:10 More Trade Ideas
01:36:56 SRTY Charts


Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

Thrilling Thursday – Back to our Bounce Lines (Again)

I don't know what people are so excited about?

During our Live Trading Webinar yesterday, we called a long on the Russell Futures (/TF) and nailed the bottom at 1,200 with a target of 1,203, paying $300 per contract.  We quickly made that money but then there was another chance at 8pm and another at 4am and another at 5am and now the Russell is up at 1,206 with $1,500 worth of gains just from making the same trade over and over and over again.  

If you are going to be a day trader – learning to identify channels is the most important thing you can do.  We had similar success with our S&P longs (/ES) off the 2,125 line and we just passed our strong bounce line at 2,140 this morning – which is a good place to cash out with a $750 per contract gain on those (see yesterday's post for bounce lines).  

As we're flashing more green this morning, we're not looking to go short unless we get signals to do so.  You can see what the Labor Market Conditions Index looks like (yuch!) and we have Durable goods at 8:30, Consumer Comfort at 9:45, Pending Home Sales at 10 and the Kansas City Fed Report at 11 – so plenty of data to chew on along with about 200 earnings reports.  I see a lot of reds in those reports but the markets are in the mood to rally – so get out of their way for now.  

How fragile is this recovery?  Well, here's one of those WikiLeak Emails from the new head of the DNC to John Podesta about the mood of the American people:

Here's some quick charts from Harvard via ZeroHedge that illustrate the state of our economy:

You get the picture, but it's a picture that doesn't match the markets, which are still skating along at their all-time highs.  Why is it that Apple (AAPL) can have great earnings and great revenues and
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Now it’s an avalanche


Picture via Pixabay

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

Reuters on the last week’s fund flows:

Mutual fund investors flooded stockpickers with redemption orders during the latest week, cashing out the most money in five years, Investment Company Institute data showed on Wednesday.

The investors pulled $16.9 billion from stock mutual funds in the seven days through Oct. 19, more than in any other week since August 2011, the trade group’s data showed.

By contrast, stock exchange-traded funds took in $2.4 billion. ETFs mostly “passively” track market indexes, while the mutual funds largely employ “active” managers who pick stocks.


Which Way Wednesday – Helter Skelter – Again

Image result for helter skelter

"When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide

Where I stop and I turn and I go for a ride

Till I get to the bottom and I see you again" 

If you think you have deja vu, you are right.  The title of our Wednesday post two weeks ago was "Wednesday Weakness: Controlled Descent or Helter Skelter?" and we predicted the recent movement, saying:

Just as the path of the Helter Skelter is predictable, so is the eventual unwinding of a market rally and, no matter how much QE you pump into it, things do come down eventually.  Only when you build on the base are you able to raise the bottom of the slide.  Otherwise, no matter how high you climb – you will see that bottom again.  

And so, exactly two weeks later, we are back to the bottom of the slide and just as likely to go back to the top where we'll stop and we'll turn and we'll go for another ride until we get to the bottom and we do it again – yeah, yeah, yeah!  

There's nothing wrong with a repetitive market pattern, we're doing fantastically well getting in and out of futures plays and, as I noted that Wednesday, there are plenty of stocks we do like and we're doing plenty of bottom-fishing along the way because, while we're looking for a market correction in the short-term, in the long run we're pretty bullish.  Meanwhile, we're simply looking for the same Futures bounce lines we outlined at the time to confirm a real recovery:

  • Dow (/YM) 18,075 (weak) and 18,150 (strong)

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Tuesday Trauma – Credit Card Delinquencies Hit Post-Crisis Highs

Good news for Visa!  

You know how you get that "teaser" rate on your credit cards or no interest for 12 months when you start?  Well, that all goes away when you have a delinquency and then they get to hit you with 22% interest FOR LIFE AND penalties and then you are DOOMED!!!!  Well, 2.2% of credit card holders are now in that category, the most since the market collapsed in the sub-prime loan crisis.  

Of course, we'd never make that mistake again, right?  So what have our beloved credit card companies been doing about it?  Well, they issued over 20M new credit cards to subprime borrowers in 2015 and that's up 56% from 2013.  And the borrowers paying those crazy penalty rates are, of course, the ones who can least afford them:

Missed payments in states with large oil or energy sectors continue to worsen. The share of card balances that were at least 90 days past due increased 12% in Oklahoma, 10% in Texas and 20% in Wyoming in the third quarter from a year prior, according to TransUnion. The Wall Street Journal reported in April that rising unemployment in the energy sector was pushing up delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans, raising the risk of new losses for banks.

Wells Fargo account scandal impactDon't worry about bank losses – we'll bail them out – where's the risk in that?  Speaking of criminal banking institutions, 14% of Wells Fargo (WFC) customers have decided to leave the bank, the other 86% seem oblivious to the news.  Of course the other banks are eager to meet the former WFC customers, so they can cross-sell the crap out of them!  This is how the free market is supposed to work, where the customers punish wrongdoers by withdrawing their support.  Unfortunately, you wouldn't know there we wrongdoers without regulatory oversight and, even then, it apparently takes years and years to uncover.

Bank app download rates after scandalRather than put our money into WFC and expecting a recovery (and they are only down about 20% despite the fact
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Centaur Value Fund Adds To Cognizant On FCPA News Dip

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Centaur Value Fund produced a return of -0.8% net to partners for September. Investors may have been disappointed with this performance but year-to-date the fund is up 8% gross and 7.5% net compared to 7.8% for the S&P 500. Over the longer term, the fund has whipped the index producing a gross total return of 466.1% (346.3% net) since inception (August 1, 2002) compared to the S&P 500’s total return of 217.5% over the same period.

Hedge Fund Letters To Investors

According to the fund’s letter, a copy of which has been reviewed by ValueWalk. reported a net market exposure of 50.3% at the end of September. The fund was 59% long at the end of the quarter, and 11.9% short. The t...

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Zero Hedge

Q3 GDP Jumps 2.9% On Rise In Inventory And Exports, Offset By Weak Consumption And Investment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For once it appears that the Atlanta Fed, with its 2.1% Q3 GDP nowcast was overly pessimistic - although perhaps the November 8 election may have had something to do with it - and moments ago the BEA reported that in the third quarter, US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9%  according to the first "advance" estimate released up more than double from the Q2 real GDP of 1.4%, and beating Wall Street consensus of a 2.6% rise in the quarter. The move higher was driven by a jump in inventory accumulation and exports, while consumption disappointed, as...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Amazon; Potential bearish reversal pattern, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Without a doubt, Amazon (AMZN) remains in an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) over the past decade plus. Last nights earnings does NOT change this trend!

Below updates the pattern on Amazon and highlights that this week, it is could be creating a pattern it has seldom created, over the past 10-years.


As mentioned in the chart, a few t...

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Phil's Favorites

Cybersecurity's weakest link: humans


Cybersecurity's weakest link: humans

By Arun Vishwanath, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

There is a common thread that connects the hack into the sluicegate controllers of the Bowman Avenue dam in Rye, New York; the breach that compromised 20 million federal employee records at the Office of Personnel Management; and the recent spate of “ransomware” attacks that in three months this year ha...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Investors are fleeing stock funds at the fastest pace in over 5 years (Business Insider)

Retail investors seem to have cooled on the stock market.

According to a note from Bespoke Investment Group, equity mutual funds have experienced their largest weekly outflows since August 2011.

Deutsche Bank's earnings call was the most brutally honest, angsty thing we've heard in a long time (Busines...

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Digital Currencies

Needham Raises Bitcoin Price Target To $848: Here's Why

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With bitcoin breaking out of its recent trading range as Chinese buyers once again flock to the currency as the Yuan slides (as we predicted over a year ago they would), even Wall Street analysts are starting to pay attention, and in a recent report by Needham's Spencer Bogart, the analyst has raised his price...

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Members' Corner

Heil The Candidate?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Remember the 2016 Presidential Election is only thirteen days away. During this election campaign, both 2016 election candidates and the incumbent President, have been amongst other things, vilified as Hitler-esque.

Above Heil Hitlary! courtesy of LULZY T-Shirts

Above Heil Trump! image...

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Chart School

Tech Hold Breakout,.but S&P Wedge Bound

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a mixed day for indices. Large Caps remain bound by wedge support/resistance, but Tech broke upside yesterday from similar wedges and held those breakout today.

There was little change for the S&P over the last couple of days. The one technical change was the MACD trigger 'buy' as other technicals stayed on the bearish side.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq cleared wedge resistance yesterday, and was able to hang on to the breakout despite today's loss. It too enjoyed a MACD trigger 'buy', but had an On-Bal...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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