Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member


Follow-Through Friday?

Wow, what a day!! We made money on both sides (short and long)!!

We started off with PCU and X puts, purchased yesterday. Right off the bat, those PCU puts doubled overnight!! We sold them way too early, as both PCU and X continued to drop. But, as the market bounced, we got into RIMM, PCP, SPWR calls, and made money on the long side. This is also why I’ve been staying mostly in cash, so I have the “power” to react when I need to. Still not the time to jump in “head-first”, yet. Please read on.

SPX bounced back to close “UP” by +4.57 points; Nasdaq was off by almost 8 points; and the Dow lost 15.69 points.
indices_8_16_07.jpg
The 2 weak sectors that have been causing most of the problems on the market were actually among the strongest today. Housing (HGX) went up +1.18% and the financials (XLF) went up +3.01%!! VIX went as high as 37.5, but closed flat at almost 31! Semiconductors (SOX) and the biotechs (BTK) hung on well!

Yesterday, I said, “…taking the respective Feb-Mar range for SPX, we’d get 1400-1440. But, if things break down fast, as there’s definitely some panic on the market, we may have to look at 1380 for support!” Sure enough, after big losses in the Asian markets, people panicked and quickly pulled things down further. SPX 1400 wasn’t enough to make a stop!

SPX (15 minute, 5 days)
spx_8_16_07_15_minute.jpg
I don’t normally show an intraday chart, let alone a 15-minute chart. But, I thought this is very valuable to demonstrate. As you can see, the intraday MAs have very sharp down slopes, indicating that the downward momentum is high. This is why I didn’t think 1400 was enough to get the initial stop. SPX quickly penetrated 1380, but, bounced back (Point #1). At Point #2, SPX tested 1380 again. And, it held up. Notice how on the initial bounce from Point #1, it got held down by the 30-minute MA (black line). Once SPX cleared the intraday MAs, there was little intraday resistance, and it jumped all the way to close in the green!

SPX (daily chart, 6 months)
spx_8_16_07.jpg
On the daily time frame, we see that SPX now is within the 1400-1440 support range. We need to see some follow-throughs with higher highs and higher lows to confirm this bottom.

Nasdaq
nasdaq_8_16_07.jpg
Although it didn’t make all the way to green today, Nasdaq did close within its support range, 2400-2475!

CFC today announced that it is drawing from its entire $11.5 billion bank credit line to help facilitate its operations. Its shares fell as low as $15/share! It later bounced back with the market, and continued to gain after the market, trading at nearly 20. HPQ is trading marginally high in AH, as it beats the market estimates on its earnings. Dell is restating its earnings, going back as far as 2003. Surprisingly, its shares are trading +2% higher after the market.

In Asia, Japan is presently down more than 300 points.  Hong Kong is down more than 200 points.  China is down just 10.  They are opening in a similar fashion as the U.S. market; let’s see if they can get a closing bounce in a comparable way.

I’m still being patient, and staying mostly in cash. Let’s see if the market can confirm this bottom.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

This entry was posted on Thursday, August 16th, 2007 at 11:57 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments


  1. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:20 am |     PermalinkIgnore this user

    Great work taking advantage of the reversals Happy!
    ====================================================

    All numbers below are in the red…

    ^AORD All Ordinaries 5,670.30 2:11AM ET 41.90 (0.73%)
    ^SSEC Shanghai Composite 4,648.15 2:49AM ET 117.29 (2.46%)
    ^HSI Hang Seng 19,983.64 2:19AM ET 688.75 (3.33%)
    ^BSESN BSE 30 13,901.70 3:19AM ET 456.51 (3.18%)
    ^JKSE Jakarta Composite 1,908.64 Aug 16 120.45 (5.94%)
    ^KLSE KLSE Composite 1,207.61 Aug 16 44.21 (3.53%)
    ^N225 Nikkei 225 15,273.68 2:00AM ET 874.81 (5.42%)
    ^NZ50 NZSE 50 3,894.34 1:31AM ET 63.59 (1.61%)
    ^STI Straits Times 3,037.98 3:20AM ET 114.18 (3.62%)
    ^KS11 Seoul Composite 1,638.07 2:02AM ET 53.91 (3.19%)
    ^TWII Taiwan Weighted 8,090.29 1:46AM ET 111.08 (1.35%)

    =====================================================

    Europe opening well…was it Crocodile Dundee II when the Colombian bandits were preparing for night fall and said “It will be a long day tomorrow” and Croc Dundee added “and a long night too”….that’s much the way I feel about tonight and tomorrow….now if only I knew a place that made coffee with too much caffeine….oh wait SBUX…let’s see how they’re holding up….

  2. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:32 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    ramana – “a healthy correction to global greed” indeed. As mentioned in the ‘better than pig wrestling?’ post http://www.philstockworld.com/2007/08/16/better-than-pig-wrestling/ this is one of the first times all markets, bond, currencies, commodities, equities are all super-volatile….so many hedge funds must be hurting badly and as Cramer says we entered the “Break The Hedge Fund’ game recently which is always fun (unless you’re a hedge fund that forgot that your job was to HEDGE!).

    Fan – I still have to go back to the UNH, SBUX etc….as Phil said, look for the stocks that hold up well all the way to the end and then get taken out for a beating, they are usually the first to react well on a bounce.

  3. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:43 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Stocks to watch Friday
    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200708162027DOWJONESDJONLINE000906.htm

    ============

    TOKYO (Reuters) – The yen pushed towards a 14-month peak against the dollar on Friday in hectic trade, a day after surging sharply across the board as fears of a worsening global credit crunch forced a huge reversal of carry trades.

    The yen was being whipped around sharply by speculators and investors grappling with the massive moves the previous day that saw the dollar tumble as much as 4 percent against the Japanese currency and the New Zealand dollar plunge 9 percent at one point.

  4. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:55 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Ain’t this the truth…
    “The reason I keep saying “sell until you can sleep” on the Tee Vee isn’t because it’s catch-phrasish (it’s actually kind of hard to say). I’m saying it because bottoms are formed when people who thought they could ride it out call their brokers and dump everything. Every experienced trader has helped form a v-bottom… it’s “Unpleasant”, to say the very least.” Jeff Macke

  5. ramana
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:41 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Asia Markets : Friday, August 17, 2007

    Japan*

    15273.68
    -874.81
    -5.42%

    Hong Kong*

    20387.13
    -285.26
    -1.38%

    DJ Shanghai*

    473.08
    -9.21
    -1.91%

    S.Korea*

    1638.07
    -53.91
    -3.19%

    India

    14184.16
    -174.05
    -1.21%

    * at close
    Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters

  6. ramana
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:45 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Asia Markets (WSJ) – Japanese Shares Decline As Strong Yen Hits Exporters

    Asian stocks dropped further Friday, led by Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, as the effects of the U.S. housing-loan crisis continued to ripple through the region. But the region’s banking shares rebounded after U.S. financial stocks staged a late rally Thursday on speculation of possible U.S. interest rate cuts.

    Japanese stocks were hit by concerns over a strengthening yen, which reduces the local currency earnings of big exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Canon Inc. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index dropped 874.81 points, or 5.4% to end at 15273.68 – the biggest point fall since April 17, 2000. It is off 8% since the start of August

    http://tinyurl.com/35cent

  7. ramana
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:50 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Asia and Euro Markets

    European Stocks Gain Despite Severe Losses in Asia
    European stocks pushed higher Friday, as investors looked beyond huge one-day declines in Asian equities and took confidence from a late-session rally in the U.S. stock market Thursday.

    The yen neared a 14-month high verses the dollar, stoking fears the worsening global credit crunch could develop into more sustained losses caused by a large-scale reversal of carry trades.

    Asian Stocks Slaughtered

    Asian stocks were slaughtered in the afternoon session Friday as markets limped battered and bruised towards their lowest close in a decade, hit by a wave of panic selling triggered by more margin calls and growing anticipation of more fund redemptions. Japan plummeted over 5% — its biggest percentage drop in almost 7 years — over 800 points, while South Korea extended losses by another 3%.

    The markets that were still in session weren’t faring any better. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index suffered four-digit losses, down as much as 5% or 1,100 points. Singapore was down as much as 5.5%, before pulling back slightly. The Straits Times Index is currently off 4%.

    South Korea’s KOSPI shed 3.2%, extending losses after Thursday’s 7% drop and marking its worst week since September 2001, as persisting fears about a global credit squeeze hammered blue chips. The KOSPI is down 10% for the week, but still up 14% for the year.

    China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped over 1% lower, led by large-caps as institutions continued to take profits aggressively. But rises in a wide range of shares — and the fact that no stock fell its 10% daily limit — showed many individual investors remained positive towards the market, believing capital controls would keep China immune from plunges in global markets.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/20304874

  9. ramana
    August 17th, 2007 at 5:01 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Oil, Yen & Dollar and Recession ?

    Oil Prices Are Steady at $71 in Muted Rebound – http://www.cnbc.com/id/20304876

    Oil prices rebounded half a dollar on Friday, lifted by a late Wall Street rally and news of a fire at a big Gulf Coast refinery, a day after slumping 3% when rekindled credit fears slammed financial markets.

    Yen Gains Broadly in Hectic Trade on Credit Fears – http://www.cnbc.com/id/20304873

    The yen pushed towards a 14-month peak against the U.S. dollar on Friday in hectic trade, a day after surging sharply across the board as fears of a worsening global credit crunch forced a huge reversal of carry trades.

    The yen was being whipped around sharply by speculators and investors grappling with the massive moves the previous day that saw the dollar tumble as much as 4% against the Japanese currency and the New Zealand dollar plunge 9% at one point.

    Traders said Japanese institutional investors seeking higher-yielding foreign assets would likely buy dollars around 113 yen to 114 yen and provide some support, but a further slide in stock markets would prompt a further unwind of carry trades.

    Dollar Plunges to 14-Month Low, Rebounds – http://www.cnbc.com/id/6819596/for/cnbc/

    The dollar dipped below 112 yen for the first time in over a year before rebounding in Asian trading and floundering in a low range as investors dumped the U.S. currency amid a global tumble in shares.

    The dollar was trading at 112.66 yen at 5 p.m. (0800 GMT) Friday in Tokyo after temporarily falling below 112 yen for the first time since June 2006.

    In New York overnight, nervous investors sold the greenback to move out of risky yen carry trades, which involve selling the low-yielding yen in favor of higher-yielding dollars. When investors exit the carry trades, they have to buy back yen.

    Will Wall St. Woes Lead to Recession? – http://www.cnbc.com/id/20314253/for/cnbc/

    The stock market is on a stomach-churning ride, the nation’s once high-flying housing market is sinking deeper into gloom, and credit, the lifeblood of the economy, is drying up. If consumers get nervous enough, many economists believe, all of these troubles could become the perfect storm that will plunge the country into a recession.

  10. Vijay Ramachandran
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:14 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Happy,
    The penguin’s picture was really apt. Good one!

  11. Greg
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:21 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Hi Sage: I note that one of your favorite stocks, GOOG managed to close just above long term support trend line after violating it intraday. I predict that it will not close below it’s support trend during this correction. This is one strong stock and I view it as different from most of the other previously over extended high fliers. I think there are some few runners that deserve to be, as opposed to most which got way ahead of their true value. These are the leaders we need to seperate from the fakers and put on our watch list for after this correction ends. There are alot of fakers that hit ATHs earlier this year that we need to weed out, those with fundamentals and growth prospects totally out of proportion with their nearly vertical rises. Personally, I have had a very hard time buying runners and breakouts. I tend to look for great companies in a long term up trend that have returned to their long term support line or a significant inflection point, where if I am wrong, I can set a stop closely below my entry point. I would like to learn how to identify true breakouts and buy then, maybe when this correction ends, strong breakout stocks that returned to their breakout point will also be good buy candidates, and should also be included on our watch lists.

    Thanks
    Greg

  12. Loonie
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:24 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    FEDERAL RESERVE LOWERS DISCOUNT WINDOW RATE TO 5.75% FROM 6.25%

  13. ramana
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:41 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Pre market is all green…we must expect FED induced wild buying…

  14. coolkid
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:49 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  15. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:50 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Futures go from Down >100 to up >200 after FED announcement. Will this turn into a huge short squeeze? This is playing into my theory that capitulation by the shorts will mark the top before the long slide south.

  16. denver
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:57 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I agree DW may be a good day to buy puts later on.

  17. denver
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:01 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Kinda like a duct tape patch on the Titanic.

  18. harvey
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:02 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    looks like the -300 dip yesterday was the right time to buy calls.

  19. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:09 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Hooray!!! The last day of trading before the Master of the House returns, and what a day

  20. daveo
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:10 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    My question now is should I (we) stay hedged or buy back all of my (our) short calls?

  21. Quarryman
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:11 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Wow. This is going to be a whipsaw day.

    Dollar testing lows, Asian markets correcting, our markets rallied steeply to close even, FED cuts rate [scary], first hurricane in the Gulf, and Options Expiration.

    Oh yeh, I forgot, Phil is vacationing with the Sicilians!

    Mr. J. Pierpoint Morgan was right.

  22. Jonathan Parker
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:12 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I’d still be very cautious… not a fed funds cut yet. I’d be looking for a morning short squeeze, but gonna carefully be adding index puts.. don’t think we’ve seen the end by a long shot

  23. Mr_Sparkle
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:14 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Has anyone considered strangling some of the mortgage names or homebuilders? Several of them (TMA, LEND, etc) have been experiencing pretty violent moves. And while I might believe in the mid to long term they are headed down, on any given day they might jump up 5%.

    Any thoughts?

  24. Jonathan Parker
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:15 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    This will be great if AAPL stays right around 123/124 today… gonna likely buy back those 125s first thing though assuming they are near a nickle… don’t want to take any risk on that today.

  25. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:19 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Need to find the most shorted positions and get on board for the squeeze.

  26. Mark
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:21 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Hey Dragon – What does the discount rate being cut mean for the Yen? With the Fed trying to bring back stability in the market / liquidity I would think investors will move away from the safe havens again. The long bond has already sold off hard… given this is the discount rate, not the fed funds, but I don’t know enough about the currency markets to have a feeling for what this will do over the ST and LT.

  27. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:24 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    This is going to be a fun day again! Jonathan, how can you still be short some $125′s, why didn’t you buy them back yesterday or the days before? You ALWAYS need to look at your risk/reward. Is $0.05 or $0.10 worth risking anything? Anything can happen overnight that could make AAPL jump 10%. Always buy back your callers when it gets to these levels! When you sold it for $3.50, do you really care about $0.10?

  28. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:24 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    What is everyone going in on?

  29. juliet
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:24 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    This is nice surprise to see market very green this morning. I have bought some calls in AAPL and GS yesterday, wonder if I should sell call against it to protect.

    j

  30. jazzkool
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:27 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Any thoughts on where WFR might to today?

    Jazz

  31. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:28 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Now I regret covering yesterday. Would have been unbelievable if I had just kept my naked Leaps from the morning. Oh well, I am not going to complain about this :) At least I don’t have any puts (except for a couple Qs), just sold some way OTM calls.

  32. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:29 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Chem,

    I’m looking at BIG, ISRG for a big squeeze

  33. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:30 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    GOOG – It looks like max pain for GOOG is 500. Since GOOG has shown relative strength in the sell-off, I think I will find a nice play at the open for close at 500 today.

  34. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:32 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    VIX plummeting

  35. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:33 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    killing us on the bid-ask spreads right now

  36. Mark
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:35 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    NFX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  37. Greg
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:37 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I highly recommend reading “Market Thoughts” parts 1 & 2 articles (the 2 most recent posts) on this blog:

    http://eutrapelia.blogspot.com/

    In fact I am pounding the table on reading this!

    Very good write up on whats happened and where we go from here, by a very talented (if a bit eccentric) guy.

    Greg

  38. windywheel
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:38 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    phil has always said to watch out when they bring out cramer to cheerlead the market. hmmmmm

  39. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:39 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    anybody able to get a bid? – i can’t get a single order filled

  40. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:39 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Im getting nothing sage

  41. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:40 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    brave picking 500 strike today dw :-)

  42. Philippe
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:41 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optionsage,

    Strange, I m in Belgium, and all is going really fast (orders, bids, …)

    Philippe

  43. mrn
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:42 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    BBD or Someone who understands all these crazy market factors: How will the metals play into this? My gold and silver positions are running. Time to take some profits or wait?

  44. harvey
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:44 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    CFC is rocking!!

  45. tesorohaters
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:44 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    can i get a quote on XOM SEP 85 calls --my ameritrade shows 2.00 which is obviously wrong.

  46. Brandon WAlker
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:46 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Just sold some qqqq calls I bought yesterday at a nice profit….would now be the time to start buying some puts???

  47. nu2trading
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:46 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    From Options Xpress:
    All Exchanges are experiencing heavy traffic resulting in a floorwide fast market. Quotes are wide, so please use discretion when using market orders.

  48. JPL
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:47 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I am having trouble with bids at ameritrade – asks appear ok….

  49. daveo
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:47 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    This has been great. All of my short calls haven’t really moved at all. The volatility drop sucked a lot of the premium out. yeah

  50. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:47 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Mark not sure but I sold everything and bought aug cfc 20calls last night, I knew something was wrong on the short side. I knew someone knew something I mean BSC going straight up is a little bit of a tell.
    Take your loss and move on now you’ll make up more than everything going long.
    Move into tech and retail
    What are the favs
    RIMM, FFIV, AMZN, JCG, GES, QQQQ calls, AAPL, CME, GRMN, BSC, GS

  51. Tommy
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:47 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    my fidelity options quote did not come on until ~9:40…sucks!

  52. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:48 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Bio went long on CFC with you late in the day due to the gut feeling of a real move.

  53. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    GOOG -Well, I still think it pins at 500, but I couldn’t get my order filled. The premiums were juicy at the open, but I could not get an order filled. :(

  54. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I double down on Qs on this crazy opening. Best lesson I have learned here from Phil: “Always sell into initial excitement”.

  55. Philippe
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    XOMIQ 2.65

  56. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Getting strange fills, all over the place. Got filled on ISRG 50 bucks below the bid that my ToS screen is showing. Dont trust what you are seeing on your screens.

  57. daveo
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:50 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I don’t own one stock that isn’t green right now :) Of course, yesterday I think I only had like 5-6 that weren’t red :(

  58. Jonathan Parker
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:52 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Loaded up on QQQQ Sep 45 puts around $0.80… I don’t think we can keep up this momentum

  59. windywheel
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:57 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    bought some QQQQ aug 45 puts at .03 for momentum, and ordered some sept 45 puts at .94 for insurance
    i agree with jonathan that the market is too high to fast, especially since they brought cramer out
    and there’s curbs in place too

  60. Mark
    August 17th, 2007 at 9:59 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Hey Dragon, I think I’m actually going to keep this play for a bit. With HF’s having to sell assets like crazy and buy back the currencies they’ve been short for so long, I think there’s still going to be an unwinding over the next few weeks. I have a friend on the investment management side who knows a ton of currency traders… seems that there’s a rumor going around that another HF out there will “soon” be going down. THIS IS JUST A RUMOR!!! Don’t know anymore than that, so please don’t ask me who, what, when…. don’t know and or care. Will play the news though.

    I don’t think Japan would let the yen fall below 110… they’d have to stabalize it around there… will play FXY accordingly. Thanks for the commentary everyone!

  61. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:00 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    LOL DW with the current action you could well be right :-) fortune favors the brave

  62. Lithium Rocketbottle
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:00 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Careful with the market timing. Wait for a trend.

  63. doubleclick
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:01 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I also sold my QQQQ calls bought yesterday into initial excitement. Net commissions, it’s +25%!

    If I hadn’t followed the rule I’d be looking at only +5%. :o

  64. doubleclick
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:01 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    That is, I bought them yesterday and sold them into today’s initial excitment.

  65. BillBigD
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:04 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    VMW- boring record but picked some up below $55

  66. Greg
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:06 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Zman: On my way to work today, a local radio station was reporting on Hurricane Dean, and everytime they said Hurricane Dean the played the sound clip of Howard Dean’s primeval scream from the 2004 Iowa caucus. Really funny.

    Greg

  67. albo
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:08 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    VIP back above 100.
    You can’t keep those Ruskees down!

  68. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:10 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Buying DE Sept 130 calls, buying QQQQ Sept 47 calls, buying UA Sept 70 calls, Loaded up more on MEDX after the great drug report- Jan 22.50 and 25 calls, RIMM Sept 220 calls for the 3 to 1 split and new cell phones coming.

  69. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:13 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Traded Qs 4 times already this morning. 1 loss, 3 wins, one of them for 100 points drop, this is fun. Dragon, I agree with you, someone knew something yesterday. This is why we jumped. Again, charts precede news. Isn’t it amazing that we get the perfect reversal patterns yesterday and today the fed lowers rates?

  70. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:15 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    optrader- i know a perfect bullish hammer of large proportions I’ve never seen a handle that long ever.

  71. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:15 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    We are always the last to know but can be the first to move when you feel and see something alot of it is gut feelings and experience.

  72. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:16 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    :-) I was just on the phone with an analyst speculating the same thing optrader….waaaay too suspicious!

  73. doubleclick
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:18 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Jonathan P. – Nice call on the downdraft after the open… how long you holding those QQQQQQQQ puts?

  74. Lithium Rocketbottle
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:24 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I am buying DIA calls here. Pure gamble

  75. vishal
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:27 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    whats with CELG…any bad news?

  76. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:28 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    GOOG – Getting interesting again. If I can get >5.5 for the condor, I may bite a few contracts.

  77. Greg
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:30 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader: on a 2 week 15 min chart of the QQQQs, the resistance line (I have had in place since 8/13 and confirmed on 8/15) starts at the top of the 11 am bar on 8/9, touches the tops of the bars at 15:30 on 8/13 and 13:30 on 8/15. The top of the opening bar today also touched this resistance line. This appears (to me anyway) to indicate resistance is holding and that test of the resistance line today would have been the place to buy puts. I wish I could post the chart here, but it wouldn’t be hard for you to pull this up quickly (it may be the same chart you are already watching). Do you see what I see and do you also think this resistance is valid and even strong? I’m thinking about buying some QQQQ Sept puts now, but may wait for a retest of resistance. Also hesitated because I have to leave the office form 11 am – 1 pm CST for a press conference for my real frickin’ job.

    Thanks
    Greg

  78. Henk
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:30 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    VIX increasing!

  79. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:31 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Markets looking to close the gap??

  80. nu2trading
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:33 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Option dragon are these 1 or 2 day plays?
    Buying DE Sept 130 calls, buying QQQQ Sept 47 calls, buying UA Sept 70 calls, Loaded up more on MEDX after the great drug report- Jan 22.50 and 25 calls, RIMM Sept 220 calls for the 3 to 1 split and new cell phones coming
    Thanks

  81. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:36 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Dragon, not surprising so big hammers. In all the years I have been trading I don’t think I have seen us recover from a 350 points drop. Now, as I said yesterday, we need confirmation on Monday. I have not bought anything this morning except for some Q puts. Show me the trend first, then I will jump in. No need to rush. But my LT portfolio is looking much better today :)
    Greg, I see the line on the 15 mn chart. But I would not put weight on any kind of trend lines you can draw on intraday charts.

  82. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:36 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    From the low yesterday to the high this morning: more than 600 points! WOW

  83. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:37 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Felling VERY lucky now that I sold all my puts yesterday morning. Some shorts must have been killed during this run.

  84. alfamike
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:41 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Buying Q’s calls here

  85. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:41 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Why is CELG red?

  86. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:44 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I am looking a month ahead with a fed rate cut coming soon IMO esp if more bad news following. Small cost avg in.
    MEDX is a biotech Melanoma Cancer vaccine developer that has shown real potential and activity. Its the real deal and could very well be the new defacto standard like Avastin. It can be used with avastin and others and doctors will use this off label. i’m looking for a 20 bagger here these types of drugs come out maybe 1-2 a year- blockbuster.

  87. _fab
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:47 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Well, the only good thing I see about today is that for once I didn’t feel the need to get online as soon as I got up. But man does it shove yesterday’s liquidation down my throat with a double take since today’s opening action shows they were unnecessary as I could have managed proper exits.

    I think I’m going to try and appeal with my broker… not much hope for it unfortunately.

  88. _fab
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:47 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    MEDX – Man do I hope the MEDX run can wait a few more days for my funds to arrive and rebuild my strangle…

  89. KeyserSoze
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:50 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Dragon
    MEDX – Are you still building the strangle with NOV12.50 puts or have you shifted more bullish ?

  90. Joseph
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:51 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    This is getting sold off much faster than I thought it would. Sold calls on GRMN, AMZN, IBN, ICE GOOG, AAPL, CTRP and EDU for both Sept and Oct in the excitement at the open

  91. Joseph
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:56 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Also, thinking today is the day to go long precious metals and begin nibbling at financials but I’m second-guessing myself at the moment

  92. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:56 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Keyser, I did have a strangle with the Nov puts but am rolling those to Jan 10.00

  93. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:01 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    OK, just adjusted my positions to a more bullish stance. Took advantage of the drop to buy back some callers and sell some Qs puts. I think at this point my strategy is to start building long positions again, on individual stocks, as their trend changes. But only after the trend has changed AND I will buy market puts to cover those on every run in the market: keep shorting the bounces on the market but start SLOWLY taking positions on strong individual stocks.

  94. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:06 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Picked up some NMX Sept 120s here.

  95. coolkid
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:10 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    VIX at 31 now

  96. Vijay Ramachandran
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:10 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Can somebody help? I kind of messes myself up with CROX. I have the Dec 07 50′s against Mar 08 55′s. Kind of losing money everyday. At this point, What is the best way to come out without losing much. Thanks!

  97. chubby
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:11 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I’m thinking we still need to be very careful – you better have faith and be willing to go for another ride if picking up long calls

  98. Stephane Verlet
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:14 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    anyone has pointer to a strategy to ‘sell’ some volatility – any thought on this strategy – Reverse Diagonal Calendar Spread – http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/03/041503.asp

  99. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:16 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    there was no short squeeze today…
    that must mean the market was going down by sellers and not by shorts?

  100. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:17 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Greg, I think you can add X to the list. The chart is absolutely not there yet, but this has been corrected way too much. $127 to $81!

  101. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:19 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rd2.0, what do you mean “no short squeeze”? That was a huge one since yesterday afternoon. 600 points. WHy do you think there was no shorts squeeze? It seems to me that the most shorted stocks are the ones up a lot.

  102. Jonathan Parker
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:20 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Windy – nice on those Aug 45 puts on momentum… I tried getting in when bid was at $0.02 but didn’t get filled… you get out already?

  103. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:21 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader, since the market gapped up so much in the morning, shouldn’t it have kept going higher if there were a lot of shorts out there…
    But it kept going down after the open..

  104. alfamike
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:21 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    If the market were going to end the day strong, it would have to first dip in the morning. Even if you’re a bull you can’t expect it to go straight up all day on a nice even progressive line. Just the scenario I choose to believe.

  105. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:32 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Markets – DIA and SPY filled the gap. Q’s did not, but strength in the PC space may keep it above yesterday’s close.

    MM tricks will keep market leading stocks at benchmark levels unless there is significant buying or selling. (AAPL 120, GOOG 500, QQQQ 46).

    Just my opinion!!

  106. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:33 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rd2.0, the squeeze started yesterday, not this morning. You don’t come back from 350 points without some help from the shorts. This is the only way this could have happened, no way it was all buying all of a sudden. A lot of them thought that we were going to break the lows of the day and panicked when we started bouncing. Then of course there was a lot of buying from bottom feeders as well.
    This morning, if I remember correctly we did not go down immediately, but went up more than 100 points from opening. This is not nothing, and I am sure a lot of shorts were panicking at that point as well. 600 points is a huge move! Just my $0.02. In fact no one knows exactly what happened, but I believe there was some serious short-covering. Also, some of the positions I follow with little shorts position did not move much this morning.

  107. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:34 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Alfamike, I agree. Also, there is a lot of profit-taking from yesterday’s buyers.

  108. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:36 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    CELG almost green. This is amazing.

  109. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:36 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Anyone going long natty stocks over the weekend with Dean churning out there?

  110. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:43 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    ILMN extremely strong.

  111. coolkid
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:45 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader
    ILMN
    a lot of shares short.. 12m out of 48m floating..

  112. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:45 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Vijay-CROX. Please tell mw what you were trying to achieve with this position, where did you think the stock was going? what was your goal? Did you have a stop, a strategy to modify it?

  113. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:47 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Yes, coolkid, this is one of the reasons why I like it. There is nothing better than when people short a stock just because it’s been up a lot. I am curious to see the next report though.

  114. coolkid
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:50 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader
    short seller=hedge funds.. always loose over time??

  115. BillBigD
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:54 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    OPtrader-why the excitement on CELG, my low trade shows down a $1 am I wrong?
    VMX- trade 2, buy below $55, sell $56.25 to $56.50 range. I hope LOL.
    Shorts- read yesterday that alot of Hedges covered shorts to meet cash expected withdrawls

  116. Phil
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:58 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Hey guys – only time for a quick comment as I have a ton of things to do and very little web time before a night full of activities.

    Sticking to my plan from yesterday so puts (and sold calls) stopped out, leaving me 90% cash and very bullish on remaining positions, now way up due to yesterdays WTF. I followed through with my strategy and dumped the puts except for what is now my DIA Sept $130 puts which I will crank up into the close to cover my very bullish remaining postitions. I AM NOT VERY BULLISH – my stops just made me that way!

    Don’t forget this is options expiration day and any month I would be saying not to take a 300-point move too seriously so that goes super double for this week. Early next week is key, if Asia doesn’t buy our bounce it will be in vein but Europe is loving it and who are we to argue with the most powerful economy on earth? Don’t forget those juicy FXI calls, worth a shot again just in case we get a nice snap back next week and the EWJs are worth a look too.

    On the downside, we just proved that we CAN test 12,500 and it would be way strange to just test it once so lower DIA puts, like Sept $127s are a fun way to add protection if you need it. I’m stopping out of calls with any loss of 20% of the profits and EOD I will pick a cover amount but lightening up all the way so I will have plenty of ammo as we see how next week shakes out.

    If I’ going to miss something, if the market is going to go back to 13,500 so fast that I miss opportunities, I would still rather be in cash than invest in a psychotically volatile market!

    Last day on the boat for me, I’ll tough base near the close but don’t get sucked in today, stay well hedged – oil isn’t down low enough, rates aren’t stable enough and they carry trade hasn’t unwound enough for us to say there has been a fundamental change this week, just the subsiding of pure panic that I said would wear off yesterday (but the way we run back from panic to euphoria is VERY disturbing).

    Have fun,

    - Phil

  117. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 11:59 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optiondragon,

    looking at doubling down on AAPL oct 140 calls, but with the VIX still at 30.7 would be better to wait?

  118. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:06 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    BBD, when I posted about CELG, at 11:36, it was almost green, after being down $1.40. This is why I was excited :) It is now down $0.55 on my screen. Maybe one of us has bad quotes?

  119. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:12 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    from globeinvestor.com :

    Stocks may have pared gains on concerns that there is more bad news in store.

    Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., said the Fed’s decision to cut the discount rate rather than the funds rate may indicate that the Fed anticipates some institutional failure as soon as today, probably not a bank, but rather an institution that has substantial bank liabilities that may not be able to clear.

    “Markets should not be calmed by this tactic. Unlike the Fed funds rate — which affects all banks’ cost of funds — a discount rate cut only lowers the cost of emergency borrowing by institutions in distress,” Mr. Weinberg said. “This move is not going to provide any relief to the overall economy.”

    In his mind, however, the Fed’s move raises the odds of Fed funds rate cut at, or perhaps even before, the slated September meeting.

    full story http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070817.wfedstaff08171/GIStory/

  120. mar
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:15 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    speaking of the FXI – it did work out well for me this morning
    despite a huge bid/ask spread.
    may have to do it again on phil’s recommedation for next week…

  121. Vijay Ramachandran
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:18 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader – CROX, this was in my 10KP. When it went down this week, out of panic i made some changes. I did not have a stop set as i sold the Dec 50′s and bought the Mar ’08 for $.20 spread. Now, i see the 50′s losing more than what the Mar’08 gains. Looks like i did something wrong. Please let me know if you need anymore information to help me to come out. Thanks again!

  122. BillBigD
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:19 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader- I have fidelity so it is probably me. LOL
    BUCY-a little further breakdown I might start building a stake.

  123. mar
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:20 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    interesting post mike p.

    i was already thinking this morning that things must be worse than they are for the fed to move in so quickly after basically saying they were going to let it play out by itself.

  124. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:21 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I wish I could say I got up early and sold thoses CFC calls fro 1.50 but I didn’t.

    :(

  125. BillBigD
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:21 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    MAR-Happy it worked for you! I might do the same today

  126. gmiles
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:22 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Anyone can tell me if it is the best time to buy PERU stocks PUT, after earth quake worst earth quake in 30 years. Does it sound bad enought to move stocks that operate in Peru lower?

    I am thinking of PCU Puts! Any suggestion?

    Thanks,
    Miles

  127. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:22 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    MikeP- yes wait, AAPL looks like it is not going anywhere fast so I would take Phil’s advice and wait til Monday. your not going to miss anything and those calls are perfect for earnings play.

  128. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:22 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Vijay-How many contracts do you have of each? Same number? It was down big yesterday and up big today, so did you make some changes yesterday? But more important, what are you trying to achieve? Where do you think the stock is going? Why did you sell the Dec’s instead of the front-month?

  129. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:26 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optiondragon- thanks for your insight

  130. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:28 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Mike p, good article. One more reason to be very prudent.

  131. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:30 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Bio- that totally sucks. man that was nice timing though thanks for the reminder that ugly girls are a good backup plan!

  132. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:38 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    getting drunk cost me $1400.

    I guess I’ll learn eventually. I mean seriously, I’m 30 years old for Christ’s sake!

    [shaking it off]

    moving on, no sense in crying over spilled milk. I’m still flying first class this weekend … :)

  133. Vijay Ramachandran
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:42 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader – on CROX, I have 5 contracts on each. I’m trying to achieve a decent profit by having some protection in case something bad happens in the near term. I thought the stock has a very good potential to go up but was beaten down by the general market. The reason i did the Dec instead of the front-month was that the premium was too high.

  134. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:47 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    just for the lesson – TMA calls was where the play was, 12.50 calls traded for 0.50 yesterday, hit 6 (yes that’s S-I-X) today and are still at 2.60 (up 420%) for drinkers who miss the bell ….

  135. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:50 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    from RBC morning comments:

    Cameco (CCO) – A unit at the Bruce nuclear power plant that was only recently returned to service after an unplanned two-week outage was abruptly taken down again Thursday. Engineers were still trying to find out exactly what the issue was with the system, but there were no environmental or safety issues, a spokesman said.

    Research in Motion (RIM) – US$198.02 – Fresh Checks Show Momentum Ahead of Pending Catalysts
    Top Pick, Above Average Risk, Target Price: US$250
    **Note RIM is trading at 3-1 split price in Toronto**
    Checks this week at retail stores in major US cities, Rogers in Canada, and online retailers, suggests BlackBerry sales momentum remains strong. RIM has a busy fall launch cycle, with over 8 product launches including two new Pearl versions, and 3 versions of Curve. RIM may also be readying handsets with new handheld form factors and more powerful multimedia capabilities. Pending launches suggest RIM may provide healthy Q3/F08 guidance on sell-in and sub adds. RIM is currently trading at 27x PE, versus 21-37x historically, which RBC CM believes is an attractive buy-in price for investors seeking quality growth names with strong fundamentals. RBC CM maintained its Top Pick, Above Average Risk rating and US$250.00 price target.

    Wall Street investment banks have started to lay the groundwork to offload billions of hung bridge loans and financing commitments. According to several market sources, banks have begun calling investors to sound them out about buying the loans. The investment banks, which have had to sit on billions of dollars worth of LBO-related debt they haven’t been able to syndicate over the past few weeks, had previously been unwilling to sell the debt at what they perceived as fire-sale prices. That they seem more willing to consider the possibility suggests that a logjam created by a growing number of willing buyers for the loans, and a dearth of sellers, may be about to break. TheDeal.com

    The yen continues to strengthen as the carry trade continues to unwind in the face of global risk aversion, currently trading at ¥112.3/$ and ¥150.6/€.

  136. Philippe
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:51 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Bio,

    Not possible to tell this yesterday ? ;-) …

  137. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:55 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    On TMA

    Too bad the Flux Capacitor in my DeLorean is Broken :(

  138. happyTrading
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:57 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    PCU
    very strong today!

  139. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:57 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    RIMM trading at 73.98 cdn Sep 76.625 calls 3.05

    thoughts?

  140. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 12:59 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Vijay, shouldn’t you sell the contracts with more premium? I agree about buying the Mar 08′s but selling the Dec’s is what I don’t understand. Let me run some numbers and I’ll get back to you, but my first advice is that you read something about calendars. A very good place to start would be Sage’s book. A great strategy would be to buy the Mar’s 08 for example, like you did, and sell premium against them every month. To do this you need to start by selling front-month. But this is of course if you don’t think the stock is going to run right away.

  141. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:01 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Oh Vijay did you sell the Mar $55′s? Do you have a reverse calendar?

  142. Vijay Ramachandran
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:04 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader – I did not sell Mar 55′s. I bought Mar 55′s and sold Dec 50′s with a spread of $.20.

  143. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:05 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    from RBC today:

    Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL; 117.05)
    Rating:
    Risk Qualifier:
    Price Target:
    Outperform
    Above Average Risk
    175.00
    Back-To-School Mac Sales To Rise
    • Rising Mac Sales Expected. Data from RBC’s Technology Adoption Panel
    point to increased Mac momentum. We expect 2.0M Macs shipped Q4, up
    27% Y/Y; our Q4 ests are for $6.2B and $0.76 EPS vs street at $5.93B, $0.81
    EPS.
    • Fresh Checks Affirm Sustained iPhone Momentum. Checks at
    Apple/AT&T retail stores affirm sustained iPhone momentum. We reiterate our
    outlook for 13.4M end CY08. Checks at large retailers suggest iPod
    cannibalization appears minimal, with solid demand.
    • Reiterating Outperform Thesis. Our OP thesis is based on (1) upside surprise
    in Mac momentum (2) iPhone exceeding 10M goal by end CY08 (3)
    iPod/iTunes dominance maintained. Recent weakness, in our view, is an
    attractive opportunity for investors seeking quality growth names with strong
    fundamentals. Our $175 target is DCF-based (10.5% WACC, 4.5% terminal
    rate, FTM cash $25.49/share) and equates to 39x our F08 EPS, inline with
    “Premium Technology” peers at 36x, and vs. historical 25x-38x.

  144. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:05 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    PCP aug 125 puts still have a decent premium, considering we are so close to the close. If I had more margin, I would sell them

  145. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:06 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    RIMM Sept 230 also

  146. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    market creeping up…. let’s have another 300

  147. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    AAPL – I’m trying to remember what happened last month, but I believe AAPL opened higher, moved to 120, then took off in afternoon trading to close ~124. I’m considering speculating on a few AUG 120 contracts to see if we can get an afternoon rally.

  148. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:09 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    CROX-I looked at the numbers, and I still don’t understand your position if you are bullish the stock and think it is going to bounce. In fact I don’t understand the position especially if it is a RC. Your break even point will be at $62 at December’s expiration. Every single day your break even point moves higher, so this is why you are losing money everyday. Reverse calendars are good for when you expect a huge move in a very short period of time, like for earnings, but in that case it is better to play front month. Or when you expect IV to really increase on the front-month.

  149. albo
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:10 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Biodieselchris: TMA

    TMA has 3 preferred stocks. I own the pfd C. Stock is up 90% from its
    closing price of $9 on Tuesday. Pays a $2.00 dividend. As you probably
    know, no common share dividends can be paid until after the preferred
    dividends are paid. It is also Cumulative which means that if they skip
    the dividend for several quarters, they are required to pay missed
    dividends once they resume the dividend payment.

    No adrenaline rush, but great investment nonetheless.

  150. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:10 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    the market goes down a few days in a row and in march the socialists.

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/8/17/82546/5111

    typical.

  151. Lithium Rocketbottle
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:14 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    SPY Aug put open interest is massive. If I had the power to squeeze….

  152. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:15 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Dragon,

    What are your thoughts for monday, are you going to hold front month long calls into the weekend

    Thanks

  153. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:15 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    CROX, I meant a decrease in IV of course.

  154. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:15 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Nile, definitely not a diamond today

  155. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:16 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    diesel chris,

    Awesome. I look at DKos everyday to see what the crazies are dreaming up over there. There wasnt a mention about the market going up on that site until the correction. Danger: Too much liberalism will cause your eyeballs to explode!

  156. coolkid
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:18 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    RIMM to the moon

  157. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:18 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Nadir- yes I am but with good amount of QQQQ puts as a hedge. Flatlining here is big. Means we go up.
    Computers kicking in. they need to stop putting in curbs when it goes up though! i mean we are trying to avert disaster and they put curbs in to the upside? hello?

  158. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:19 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I got 50,000 shares of TELA asking where that big hurricane is…

  159. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:20 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    chemistry – I majored in chemistry

    LOL! rock on!

  160. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:20 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Does anybody know the all time one time point gain for the indicies?

    I

  161. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:23 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Vijay, I’ll be happy to try to help you find a good strategy if you are telling me what you want to do. Please tell me where you think CROX is going, and when, how much you want to risk, where do you want to exit if it turns against you, and I will suggest a position for this, using spreads if you want.
    But in general, and it is good for everyone, you should read a couple books before getting into spreads. It is sometimes very complex, not only to enter but especially if you start messing with them trying to adjust.
    There is obviously a big issue here as you said you thought that CROX had been killed and should rebound but you built a bearish position. Not only that but a position suffering from your near-term call having a greater theta, and thus suffering more from time decay.

  162. mj23
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:25 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    sold some naked QQQQ 46 puts this morning at .5 avg.

    I am happy that most likely we will see some pinnings today, conforming that things might be getting under control. If no pinnings at the end of the day, then god help us.

  163. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:26 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Nice diesel. PhD in organic chemistry myself.

  164. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:26 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I better change my handle lest I be the target of eco-warriors

    http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/venture/archives/117598.asp

  165. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:29 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    chemistry. quick. whats the formula for benzene

  166. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:30 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    childs play rd :)

  167. mj23
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:32 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    XOM can move the same way as a cheapo $2 biotech.

    The Wilshire 5000 and Russel 2000 seem to be leading the way up. NDX could be the last. Bought some VTI (which tracks the Wilshire 5000) yesterday in my long term portfolio.

  168. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:36 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    And yes, in point of fact I did use the a birch reduction to selectively deprotonate the tertiary carbons in naphthalene.

    Dissolving pure sodium into liquid ammonia is quite an experience.

  169. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:40 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    anybody who has traded for years… ever see a big rally on options expiration day?

  170. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:45 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Chris-Na/NH3….definitely deep blue fun.

    Late day rally- Im selling some just OTM august calls here, getting a few quarters for each. Only a couple of hours left!

  171. Lithium Rocketbottle
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:48 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    chemistry

    You only need one volatile last hour to blow your plan, be careful.

  172. happyTrading
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:49 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    MA is flying!!

  173. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:52 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Bio- i got friend high up at Imperium, knows the owner very well, I think he was one of the original first 10 employees. i never knew Palm oil ws destructive but at the same time those protestors are probably Big Oil funded.

  174. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:56 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    optiondragon – the company I started is a R&D/product-dev stage technology for remediating biodiesel production waste (glycerine). very cool tech. Maybe your friend would be interested in discussing…

  175. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:56 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Talking about CROX, I was short some Aug $50′s puts yesterday, covered by some longer term puts. That was in fact the last puts position I had. These we worth $6 yesterday, I just bought them back from my caller better $0.15 and $0.20. This poor guy must be real mad right now. This is truly insane.
    Of course my longer puts suffered a lot today, but they are still way ahead since the beginning of the drop and before the end of the day I am going to sell some Sep puts against them. This is Phil’s strategy of collecting rent every month and it works pretty well.

  176. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 1:59 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    MA – sweetness, Sept-100′s dropped to 0.95

    I’m getting in.

  177. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:00 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mj23, are you serious????

    Why would you do this? You sold naked Qs puts this morning? This is extremely dangerous! What if we go down 300 points again? You are risking a lot of money to get $0.05. Why not buy calls if you are feeling bullish? At least your risk is limited and your profit unlimited.

  178. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:00 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Noted Lithium. Got stops on them of course.

  179. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:01 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    (105′s)

  180. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:02 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p – you seem to have a lot of insight on Canadian markets/companies. Do you follow these closely? Any specific companies your watching?

  181. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:03 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    oops – I fixed the link on my handle BTW. Although that woman was pretty cute….

  182. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:03 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    MA- I might join you. Chart is looking good, with price above 5MA. Bio, you mean Sep $165′s?

  183. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:05 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    nope – puts

  184. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:06 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Don’t forget I’m the mega-bear in the room

    8)

  185. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:06 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Oh, so you are bearish on MA? Sorry..

  186. mj23
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:11 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    optrader, yes, it is a risky trade, but I had a very tight stop. You are right I could have bought calls but did not want to pay the premium. BTW: I sold them for 0.5 and was going to get out if we broke the lows of the day.

  187. Greg
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:13 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    biodieselchris – “I love the smell of napalm in the morning”

    Is that how you feel when the market opens down big and you are sitting on a boatload of puts? ;-)

    Greg

  188. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:15 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    E-Trade sucks! I can’t seem to even get my trades in at or above the Ask price in a timely execution.

  189. ramana
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:15 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    LOL Greg nice one

  190. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:16 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    So … buy the CFC Oct-5 puts for 0.35 and sell the Sept’s for 0.30? Yes please.

  191. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:18 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    yes and then my wife gets all randy and we have crazy sex while throwing cash around the room like confetti …

  192. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:21 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Mj23, Are you still in the trade? Where is your stop? At the low of the day, which is $45.60? So you would lose $0.45 to gain a max of $0.05?
    The calls don’t have any premium if you don’t buy the ATM.

  193. Bryan Edgerton
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:21 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Dean upgraded to a Cat3.

    The path of this thing is too perfect, it’s almost scary. This one could be very very bad. First it’s going to wipeout Jamaica, then just clip the Cancun region so that it doesn’t weaken too much, then move over the warm waters of the gulf before it strengthens again and heads to Houston.

  194. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:24 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Anyone suggestions on how to get this site to re-fresh automatically when new post are added?

  195. mj23
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:27 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader, yes. I am still in. I sold them at 0.50 avg, right now it is 0.13/0.14, I am +0.35 on the trade.

    My stop was at 0.65, loss of 0.15 on the trade with max profit of 0.50

    Buying calls ATM might have been good option, but I did not have enough buying power in the account.

  196. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:27 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Rahul,

    I live in Canada and so get lots of exposure from that side. Follow Globeinvestor.com daily as well RBC reasearch. If I see an article that looks like it would of importance/interest to Phil’s members I try to post it. Hope I have’nt been overdoing it. Have been trying to follow APPL,RIMM,POT,CCJ. Was actively trading
    Uranium stocks Palladin,Uranium Participation,Uranium One untill last March but that market seemed to go soft then. I’m 98 % cash now and looking at APPL,CROX,TASR,POT waiting for a bottom….

  197. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:29 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Bryan,

    I live in Miami, so I pay close attention to hurricanes, and I think it is still to early to put stake in that forecast cone.

    Speaking of hurricanes. . . Go Canes, I cant believe theyre not in the top 25 this year, All great things must come to an end. I am a Canes Alumnus (MBA class of ’05)

  198. Vijay Ramachandran
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:33 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader – Thank you so much for helping me out. Here is my thoughts. I feel bullish about CROX in the long term. Would like to have some protection (medium risk). I would like to exit if it goes more than 15% down.

  199. Mark
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:33 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Kahn! You know the Canes year will be finished when they fly back from Norman 09/08 night after a major Sooner Stompin’!! They’ll be bleed’n Crimson and Cream… :-)

  200. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:34 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Nadir – The Texas Aggies are playing at Miami in late September. That will be a fun game to watch as a Texas Longhorn fan. I’ll be rooting for the Aggies, one of the few times in my life.

  201. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:34 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p – I’m in Canada too. Do you follow any mineral plays like First Quantum (FM)? Who’s the broker your using and what is your expecience with them? I’m using E-Trade and it nothing but a huge frustration. I also have an OptionsXpress account and the site and service is great.

  202. BillBigD
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:35 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    CANES- new coach no QB isn’t a surprise. I might come over and watch the A&M game
    Byron thanks for the Dean update

  203. Loonie
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:35 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Here is a Canandian stock I traded recently called VRS on Toronto Stock Exchange. It is not listed in US.
    Very good stock and lots of potential. Do your own DD.

  204. Greg
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:36 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Did anyone read the “Market Thoughts” article I posted a link to this morning. Here is the link again (now the 2nd post down) http://eutrapelia.blogspot.com/

    I really thought it was the most fascinating, insightful, and timely market analysis I have read in a long time. I even said I am pounding the table on reading this.

    Please someone tell me if you actually read it to and if you also thought it was worth my pounding the table on it.

    Thanks
    Greg

  205. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:37 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Chemistry, this is off topic for here but just had to ask…

    Do chlorinated parafin oils have much of a cancer risk? Use Rapid Tap for tapping threads in holes at the machine shop on a regular basis and usually get blasted with the mist when blowing the cutting oil,chips out of the threaded holes.Wondering if that type of chlorinated parafin has estrogenic properties?

  206. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:38 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Mj23, I am so sorry, I thought you sold them for $0.05. I was going crazy here, I apologize. I like it much better, especially with a tight stop. Well done!
    I am surprised that you would not have the buying power to buy the calls but that your broker would let you sell naked options without asking for a lot of buying power. Optionsxpress or TOS are not that nice unfortunately.

  207. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:38 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Biodiesel- I’ll let him know and see. They are pretty secretive and private about their operations and technology and walk as though they need no one.

  208. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:41 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rahul, read http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?page_id=235 to download the Yrefresher plugin for IE

  209. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:42 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Mike P,
    There is a slight risk there, especially with chronic exposure. Maybe a flip down mask would prevent ingestion of those aresolized droplets.

  210. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:42 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rally “protection” – taking IBM Sept-120 calls for 0.65, maybe 0.70

    just in case the US market isn’t TOTALLY screwed from this mortgage mess…. :)

  211. mj23
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:43 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    thanks Optrader. Your comments have been very helpful and educating always. Thanks.

  212. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:45 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    c’mon goog, lets make a trip to 505 before dropping back to 500

  213. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:46 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Rahul,

    I use Tradefreedom mostly and also RBC Action Direct wich has nice research.Can’t do trailing stops on options with Tradefreedom.For mineral plays Polaris PLS might be good as it is supplying gravel to California.We actually built some of their equipment at work.Like POTand Hudson Bay Minerals HBM but that just lowered by RBC.TECK might be good on this pull back….

  214. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:46 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    GOOG – Here comes 500!

  215. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:47 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    dragon -sounds good, email is biodieselchris at gmail…

  216. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:48 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Vijay, first you should close your spread. or at least adjust it. To save on commissions and spillage I suggest that you keep your december calls, just buy back the other leg. Then you need to sell some front-month (September at this point) calls. This is not reducing your risk that much from the calls but it is reducing your cost. You can sell the $57.50′s for good premium. Will lower the cost of you back calls by $2. Your risk, you can only reduce with proper money management and exit strategy. If the stock goes down 15%, sell everything. Also remember that with this strategy you are betting that CROX is going to go back up but not straight away , and not real fast.
    If you think CROX is going to go up right now, just buy some naked calls, with a tight stop. Sometimes a calendar gives you a false sense of reducing risk but the same can be simply achieved by reducing size and you don’t give up potential profits. The advantage of a Calendar though is that it protects you better against an overnight drop where you could not activate your stops. Hope this helps.

  217. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:50 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    google closes within 25 cents of 500. they do this every time now!

    it’s almost a guaranteed money maker to sell naked options once the pin price is known …. (starts thinking)

    you could sell the 500 call and put for $2 right now!!

  218. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:52 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Chemistry

    thanks, have one of those and was using it for a while but need to be more diligent….

  219. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:53 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Bio, true, I noticed that as well. It never fails. But instead of selling naked, as we don’t know what could happen in this market, I would just build a delta-neutral position. Sell the 500 calls and buy enough Sep so that you have a delta neutral position. No risk and you might get $2 in your pocket by the end of the day.

  220. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:53 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    bio, it might depend on open interest… if there are more 510 Puts In the money than 500 Calls, they might pin it at 505…

  221. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:54 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I meant calls and puts of course, for the $2.

  222. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:57 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    OK, getting to the last hour. Would be nice to have a quiet one for once. But I am not dreaming.

  223. Vijay Ramachandran
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:58 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader – CROX – you mean, you are suggesting to sell my Mar’08 and keep the Dec 50′s that i sold. Also, sell Sept 57.50′s. Correct?

  224. Lithium Rocketbottle
    August 17th, 2007 at 2:59 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I want to thank Happy and everyone else for stepping in for Phil. We may have missed him, but he missed a couple of weeks for the record books. I had a ton o fun and make so scratch too. thanks all.

  225. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:03 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rd2.0 – thanks – I got the refresher working. Do you know how this works with multiple IE windows and more importantly if I’m running Yahoo plugin for multiple web pages in one IE window? Looks like it’s trying to refresh my brokerage account window even if PSW is my active window. This seems to be a problem with secured site.

  226. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:04 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    SPY wants to go up

  227. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:06 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    500

  228. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rahul, havn’t used it with tabs in IE 7. but it works fine in IE6. refreshes each window separately

  229. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p – can you do trailing stops on options at RBC? Any canadian brokerages?

  230. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Vijay, keep the ones you are long with, and sell the Sep.

  231. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:08 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rahul,
    FM sure has come down.Do you have it or thinking of buying?

  232. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:09 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    AAPL crossing 5MA

  233. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:10 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader, you look at 5MA on “Daily” chart or on “15-mn” charts

  234. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:11 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    This AAPL chart looks REALLY good now, with a bottom island reversal. Very difficult to not get excited about this.

  235. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:11 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    5MA: daily and weekly chart only.

  236. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:13 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Rahul,

    RBC does’nt have trailing stops for stocks so would’nt likely for options…..don’t know about the other banks

  237. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:13 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    GOOG – Out of my short 500 put. Glad to be done!

  238. Bryan Edgerton
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:14 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Nadir,

    I hope your right. They probably created a worst case scenario forecast cone. I was in Playa Del Carmen in May which is south of Cancun and they are still cleaning up from the last one that hit there.

    BTW, if you guys ever want to go someplace nice, Playa Del Carmen is off the chart. I haven’t been to Cancun but from what I’ve heard it’s very touristy and Playa Del Carmen is not. Very quaint and sophisticated. Nice beaches and nice scenery if you know what I mean.

    Bryan

  239. Bryan Edgerton
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:16 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Speaking of the Canes from a Pac 10 guy, I think they will do alright this year. USC is way overrated so don’t expect them to be #1 for very long. I don’t think the Pac 10 will represent very well this year so I’m thinking it’s going to be the Big 10 again. But watch out for my Beavs!

  240. _fab
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:18 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    AAPL…

    Trying very hard not to be bitter…
    Trying very hard not to be bitter…
    Trying very hard not to be bitter…

    Seeing all my past positions recovering smoothly and according to plan is very, very hard to swallow. Knowing I can’t do anything about it makes for a rather bitter aftertaste.

  241. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:18 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    My AAPL Leaps are looking much better now, especially the ones bought yesterday at $112 and $114.

  242. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:20 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    _fab, really sorry about this. But you never know, we might not have seen the bottom yet. Anyway, I am not sure it would be a good day to buy today. I am sure you’ll still have plenty of time when you get your money.

  243. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:21 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Maybe you should be careful with using margin, if there is a lesson to be learned here.

  244. BillBigD
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:22 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    VMW-got my $2
    OII- adding cuz the chart looks good and Hurricane Dean
    Playa vs Cancun- totally different and Cancun is full of tourists.

  245. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:23 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p – re:FM – I got stopped back at 102. Looking for a re-entry into the stock (not options) and doing covered calls until this volatility settles down. re:brokers – if you’ve got US$ accounts, I suggest Optionsxpress for options trading.

  246. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:25 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    c’mon sell me the stupid CFC oct-5 puts for 0.45 already …

  247. Pitch78
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:27 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Mark, you in Oklahoma?

  248. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:28 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    hahaha I’m in! this turd is sunk.

    a bank run???? oh my goodness, what, is this 1929?

  249. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:28 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Slowly building new Qs puts position. Starting to buy right now just in case we drop again in the last 30 minutes, but if we keep going up I will slowly add to be fully covered by day’s end. No one knows what could happen over hte weekend.

  250. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:30 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I’m withdrawing money out of ING direct. I’m actually started to get a little scared, I mean all that market hater stuff I spew is just to have a little fun with the drama, but this is starting to get more serious ….

  251. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:31 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    covered my naked GOOG for a quick 0.60 ….

    out of GOOG completely until next week

  252. mar
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:32 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    i second optionsxpress!
    :)

  253. OptionSage
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:33 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    DW you and me both! I’ve been in bull puts at 490/480 most of the day after the dip and then moved to 500/490s which I am about to close – what a day though!

  254. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:33 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I think the awnser is dutch/new amsterdam

  255. rdj
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:35 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Mike P,
    Which broker do you use for options trading on RRSP accounts?

  256. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:39 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Wheres my badge?

  257. Gordo
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:42 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    AAPL printing as “abandoned baby” with doji bottom on daily chart. Very rare and usually indicates a strong reversal.

    I’m in

    Gordo

  258. _fab
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:43 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Optrader – Thanks… I’m not sure we’ve seen the bottom either and wouldn’t be buying anyway.

    But the knowledge I had over 25k flushed down the drain as a side effect of market panic handling by my broker, leaving me with having to fund back an additional 10k to be left with 5k to work with next week and seeing the market clearly showing I wasn’t completely wrong in my expectations make for a tough pill to swallow.

    The mistake I made was to not put a front month lid on my VIX shorts or cover them earlier… I won’t do that mistake again. I was expecting volatility, but not so much that it wouldn’t have dropped just a little more to finalize a roll or a covering. I could have thought of ratio-ing a n:1 set of 30 strike lid-calls instead of focusing on a roll for example.

    And I’ll be much more careful with margin. I was to some extent, but it’s the sudden change in margin requirement by IB on VIX calendars that was the last drop to break the dam. I mean, going from 100 to 800 per spread in a matter of minutes?! Come on!

  259. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:43 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    RIMM – On a tear

  260. dooog1
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:45 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    albp, you showed some interest in this stock so I’ll send this along in case you missed it.
    MPEL
    HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Macau’s casino gambling revenue in the second quarter rose 50% to MOP19.57 billion (US$2.45 billion) from MOP13.03 billion in the year-earlier period, the Chinese territory’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau said Monday. Melco PBL Entertainment (Macau) Ltd. (MPEL:
    All major construction and finishing works at Crown Macau were completed during July. We believe Crown Macau will receive full recognition as a pre-eminent VIP gaming experience in Macau.
    MPEL
    “In the 50 days of operations during the second quarter, average daily VIP rolling chip volume at Crown Macau was US$20 million. Average daily VIP rolling chip volume increased by 120% to US$44 million in July 2007 and it has improved by a further 25% to over US$55 million since the beginning of August, demonstrating the ongoing sequential improvement in Crown Macau’s core VIP business.

  261. Optrader
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:53 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Finally I decided to buy some Sep puts on individual stocks. Just to protect the gains in Leaps from today.
    New puts: DRYS, POT and TTWO. Will be careful especially with POT as I like the company but chart looks broken, and anything that is weak today does not look very good.
    To compensate I went a little bit more bullish on AAPL :)

  262. happyTrading
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:53 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    RIMM
    going for 220, WOOHOO!!

  263. albo
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:53 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    RIMM

    Great call dragon. Thanks!

  264. KC
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:54 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    _fab – other than this particular VIX trade, are you happy with interactive brokers? I like their fee structure; it’s better for trading smaller number of contracts, but my cursory exploration suggests their platform/tools are not intuitive. I understand they have a fee to change entered orders as well. Appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.

  265. mj23
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:54 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    guys, you might want to double check and close any in the money short august calls/puts.

  266. Mark
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:56 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Pitch78 – My wife and I were born and raised in Texas, and we reside in Dallas, but we’re both OU alumns. Boomer Sooner!!

  267. chemistry
    August 17th, 2007 at 3:58 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    NMX ramping into the bell.

  268. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:01 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Aug 210 calls today you could have spent $40K and made almost $1 million and 400K for 10 million. Thats what Im talking about.

    Shit RIMM aug calls were a grand slam today. If i wasn’t so cautious I would have nailed it outta the park.
    Gotta be happy about my multiple baggers today on RIMM sept though! :)
    Always be happy, grateful.

  269. mj23
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:02 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Good to see some pinnings. No breakdowns in the last hour.

  270. _fab
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:03 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    KC – Other than this particular issue, yes I’m happy with IB. They have very good execution, great pricing when working with small quantities and I appreciate the wide range of products they offer. The interface is not the most intuitive indeed (still wonder whether my stops are properly set, let along trailings ones) and their graphing sucks but other than that… ah yeah, you need a decently up to date PC/Mac to run the workstation smoothly (aka. I do need to replace my 5+ years PC soon).

    I definitely can’t say I’m unhappy with them, but I now know that their automated liquidation system is very aggressive.

  271. optiondragon
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:04 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Thanks to Optionsage and Happy for holding the fort down while Phil was away, I hope I helped too with my homeruns! Take it easy everyone and see you guys back with Phil!
    Man he missed a doozy!!!! I feel for him though the day I went to Maui early this year when the market dropped 500 points I could of made a killing but you gotta draw the line somewhere and the best thing about the market is there is always tomorrow forever.

  272. biodieselchris
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    goog closed at 500.04. wow were those naked options free money or what?

    good thing I didn’t pull that trick with RIMM though….

    have a good weekend all.

  273. happyTrading
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    RIMM
    sept 220 calls bought yesterday, partially cashed out, as high as +164%!!

    Have a great weekend, everyone!!

  274. Philippe
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:08 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Dragon,

    You re the king man !
    investment x3 within 2 days …

    It s evening here in Belgium, and I wanna drink a beer to celebrate !
    Cheers !

    Have a nice WE !

    Philippe

  275. BillBigD
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:08 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    KHHHHAAAN- I actually remember the answer also. Not bad for 40 years ago
    CROX- whew all 50/45 put creditspreads were safe. Nice payday but the stress wasn’t worth it.
    MJ23- great reminder I think we should have a reminder given at 2:30 every opt ex. Hope all remembered to cover your RIMM AUG from Happy trades.
    BIDU- I like but didn’t hold 50 EMA
    All have a good weekend and let’s start making that shopping list that Greg keeps suggesting.
    Steak and Wine for me tonight

  276. KC
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:09 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    _fab – thanks for the info on IB. I’ve have to look into them further.

    Have a great weekend all.

  277. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:09 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    What a way to end the phil-less fortnight. Thanks all that were “philling” in. See you guys on monday

  278. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:14 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rdj

    sorry,was away staining the gable vent….for trading my options with RSSP accounts Im using RBC Action Direct and Tradefreedom with their Edge platform

  279. rd2.0
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:32 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Dragon, Is there a way make an educated guess using open interest etc…where the market makers are going to pin the stock?

  280. Lithium Rocketbottle
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:40 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Have a great weekend all

  281. jazzkool
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:46 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Thanks, Happy, Sage, and Dragon. Lost my shirt this week, but hopefully learned some hedging lessons. My only regret was that I didn’t sell all my WFR at the opening. What a miserable performer. At one point, it was down below Thursday’s close.

    Have a great weekend.

    Jazz

  282. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 4:50 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rd2.0,

    A lot of people feel that the jury is still out on whether pinning is a real phenomenon, but it usually falls between peak put and call open interest

  283. Vladimir Sadov
    August 17th, 2007 at 5:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    I think you can take a look at todays BA chart to see whether pinning is a real phenomenon :-)

  285. DW
    August 17th, 2007 at 5:39 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Pinning – The MMs for GOOG are masters of the pin job. Only one out of the last 6 or so expirations went out at > $.50 from a strike price. This month it was 500. Two days ago you could see the huge open interest in 500 puts and small open interest in 480/490 calls.

  286. rdj
    August 17th, 2007 at 5:55 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p,
    For your RRSP’s at RBC Direct, are you allowed to buy puts.

  287. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 6:01 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    rdj,

    No,and not at Tradefreedom either.Wish we could but think it’s the law here.

  288. rdj
    August 17th, 2007 at 6:04 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p,

  289. rdj
    August 17th, 2007 at 6:07 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p,
    Now I have an account at ALTAMIRA SECURITIES (run by National Bank) and they allow you to buy puts.
    The Montral Exchange says its legal for your RRSp to buy puts. So who’s right.

  290. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 6:13 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    how about that, i’m going to have call Tradefreedom and see if it’s possible,maybe somethings changed.
    Was told could only by puts in a cash account with margin..

  291. mike p
    August 17th, 2007 at 6:16 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Jim Cramer thinks the market has hit the turning point and will go up

  292. rdj
    August 17th, 2007 at 6:57 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    mike p,
    Another problem I have with RBC DIRECT is that they take 2-8 mins to process a US Options order. Way too slow for volatile markets. Altamira Securities is faster.

  293. cap1
    August 17th, 2007 at 7:22 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    No time to post today during market hours. Options expiration Friday is usually an insane day for me; all the more so w/ today’s news.

    Holy Cow is all I can say. Hope no one here got crushed holding index puts overnite. When the Fed news hit, the SPY went crazy; up 4 handles in seconds.

    AHR !

    TMA !

    Easing the liquidity crunch huge for these companies.

    More later; want to read up on y’all.

    Was hoping to see much more strength today. Cramer on TV this morning predicted a record up day. Wrong again Jimbo.

    As senor Phil would say; sell into the initial excitement.

    We may see more volatility; but the Fed clearly gave the shorts a warning here.

    I have to admit, I have less overall confidence in trading the market intraday right now; the usual dynamics are all out of whack.

  294. cap1
    August 17th, 2007 at 7:25 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Also, I don’t understand the pundits on TV claiming we haven’t seen capitulation yet; I have seen plenty of what looks like capitulation. What do you guys think ?

  295. rahul
    August 17th, 2007 at 7:36 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    CCRA allows put options to be purchased in retirement accounts. E-Trade allows – hey one positive thing about E-Trade! Although I don’t believe they allow these to be traded on-line – got to deal with their service people :-(

  296. thedraz
    August 17th, 2007 at 8:00 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    DNDN up AH on what seems like old news!!

  298. Nadir khan
    August 17th, 2007 at 10:57 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    alfamike,

    lol

  299. Phil
    August 18th, 2007 at 3:52 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Hi all. Yesterday was way too crazy as we had to pack up by 10pm even though we weren´t off the boat ´till 7am. I´m at the airport now and about to fly back so I can make a wedding 3 hours after I land!

    My intention is to get home and review were the hell we are after 2 amazing weeks that, yes, I regret missing but I sure do feel very good and ready to get back in it with all of you!

    Lots of very impressive level-headed comments today. It was a BS move by the Fed, I can´t even imagine who actually benefits from that .25% drop on the discount rate but it was the most they could do without actually doing anything and again, as I said last week, what they really accomplish is making the shorts nervous, which is generally enough to get them to cover.

    Cramer predicted a big rally because he, for some reason, thought his buddies (GS,MER, LEH…) would back him up with some BUYBUYBUYs. While it was a very respectable run, because of expiration it proves nothing until they show us the money next week and I´ll be taking a close look at the patterns tomorrow (I CAN´T wait to get back to my screens!) so we can figure out what this action really means.

    Fundies still suck and the rich (or at least the ones I´m traveling with) are looking for a change so we can expect a lot of hard questions to be put to fund managers and a lot of money movement as the summer winds down. Catching the next hot sector could be a real gold mine (and gold mines may be the hot sector) coming into the close of the year. If these hurricanes don´t pan out, we can still expect more pain in the energy sector but that ain´t over ´till it´s over.

    I´ve really missed talking live to you guys, it will be great to be home!

    - Phil

  300. ramana
    August 18th, 2007 at 6:19 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Welcome back, Phil. :-)

  301. size123
    August 18th, 2007 at 7:40 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Have a safe trip Phil and welcome home.

  302. workdog3
    August 18th, 2007 at 10:39 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Welcome back, Phil. You’ve been sorely missed.

    Here’s a great article from contrarian Bill Fleckenstein whose been calling for this credit shakeout for quite some time now.

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/CentralBanksAreStealingFromTheAverageCitizen.aspx

  303. juliet
    August 18th, 2007 at 11:31 am | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Oh Phil, good to hear that you will be home soon. Have a safe trip back home.

    j

  304. mike p
    August 18th, 2007 at 12:13 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    the real story?

    “The idea is you go to the discount window, you take money at the cheap rate and you lend it, but you also get the credit risk that comes with those loans, and banks are unwilling to take on that much extra risk — for most, they’re trying to trim their risk,” said one senior commercial banker.

    If the Fed’s move doesn’t work, a cut in overnight rates may be unavoidable, even if it does raise criticism that policy makers are bailing out billionaire hedge fund investors and other market speculators who took heedless risks while hopped up on cheap loans.

    “If you know that the Fed will always come along to bail you out, what difference does risk make?” said John Riley, chief strategist of U.S.-based Cornerstone Investment Services. “What risk is there in a market that is not allowed to have declines, to eliminate excesses? Will the Fed always come to the rescue and bail out investors? Is that their job? The answers to those questions will be debated for the next several weeks, but our opinion is that natural economic cycles are bigger than anything the Fed can do and natural cycles always win. A cycle delayed only gets bigger and more dangerous.”

    full story http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070818.wrmarketswrap18/GIStory/

  305. mike p
    August 18th, 2007 at 12:17 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Tradefreedom has a security issue, if you trade with them get in touch with your broker.

  306. happyTrading
    August 18th, 2007 at 2:09 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    What 2 busy weeks we’ve had. Just had time to catch up on the comments from Friday.

    Vijay, yeah, I thought that penguin picture was pretty funny! :-)

    Bio & chemistry, I was a double-major in ChemE and MSE. Don’t remember much, since I went to work for George Lucas after graduation. My dean thought I was nuts for not taking MIT’s solicitation to attend. Always feel some familiarity with those who are active in related fields. I was more into solid-state chem, though. Did 4.5 years of research on super-conductivity.

    Welcome back, Phil.

  307. chemistry
    August 18th, 2007 at 3:14 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    Sounds like you have quite a life story Happy! And superconductivity……..get that up to ambient temperature, and we would all be doing well :)

  308. doubleclick
    August 18th, 2007 at 9:03 pm | PermalinkIgnore this user

    A last-minute thanks to those that filled in and a welcome back for Phil!

    -doubleclick

Dashboard

 Sector Performances (Today)

 Thermal Imaging
Utilities-0.54 %
 
Aerospace-0.61 %
 
Retail-Wholesale-0.62 %
 
Finance-0.79 %
 
Consumer Staples-1.09 %
 
Medical-1.09 %
 
Consumer Discretionary-1.14 %
 
Business Services-1.14 %
 
Computer and Technology-1.15 %
 
Transportation-1.35 %
 
Multi-Sector Conglomerate-1.40 %
 
Industrial Products-1.60 %
 
Oils-Energy-1.62 %
 
Auto-Tires-Trucks-1.64 %
 
Construction-1.74 %
 
Basic Materials-1.90 %