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US Rail Traffic “Statistical Recovery”

US Rail Traffic "Statistical Recovery"

Courtesy of Mish

US Rail traffic is improving on a year over year basis, but looks are deceiving as the comparison is against very feeble 2009 traffic. Let’s take a look at Railfax Data through April 24, 2010.

Total US Rail Traffic

The table shows the 4 week rolling average of auto traffic is up 32% from a year ago. However, auto traffic is still down 31.8% compared to 2008.

The same holds true for metals, up a whopping 71% from a year ago, yet down 18.5% from two years ago.

13 Week Rolling Averages – Year Over Year Comparisons

Please refer to the article for still more charts.

Traffic is up, but only based on anemic comparisons. This is what’s known as a statistical recovery. By the way, it took trillions of dollars of global stimulus to generate that "recovery". Guess what happens when the stimulus stops?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


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Dashboard

 Sector Performances (Today)

 Thermal Imaging

Basic Materials2.01 %
 
Oils-Energy1.80 %
 
Aerospace0.64 %
 
Computer and Technology0.55 %
 
Industrial Products0.41 %
 
Retail-Wholesale0.35 %
 
Transportation0.33 %
 
Finance0.25 %
 
Consumer Discretionary0.25 %
 
Multi-Sector Conglomerate0.22 %
 
Auto-Tires-Trucks0.11 %
 
Utilities-0.06 %
 
Business Services-0.08 %
 
Construction-0.09 %
 
Consumer Staples-0.10 %
 
Medical-0.36 %