Posts Tagged ‘statistical recovery’

US Rail Traffic “Statistical Recovery”

US Rail Traffic "Statistical Recovery"

Courtesy of Mish

US Rail traffic is improving on a year over year basis, but looks are deceiving as the comparison is against very feeble 2009 traffic. Let’s take a look at Railfax Data through April 24, 2010.

Total US Rail Traffic

The table shows the 4 week rolling average of auto traffic is up 32% from a year ago. However, auto traffic is still down 31.8% compared to 2008.

The same holds true for metals, up a whopping 71% from a year ago, yet down 18.5% from two years ago.

13 Week Rolling Averages – Year Over Year Comparisons

Please refer to the article for still more charts.

Traffic is up, but only based on anemic comparisons. This is what’s known as a statistical recovery. By the way, it took trillions of dollars of global stimulus to generate that "recovery". Guess what happens when the stimulus stops?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


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JOHN MAULDIN: 40% CORRECTION COMING

JOHN MAULDIN: 40% CORRECTION COMING

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors LLC talks about the potential for a recession in 2011 and a 40% decline.  I can’t recall too many market calls from Mr. Mauldin (or perhaps I haven’t been paying close enough attention), but this is a bold one:


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Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery

Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery

Rock Salt: Miners at

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts from the Frontline

Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery
Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics
The Problem of Seasonal Adjustments
The Job Creation Engine
A Double-Dip Recession?
Dad Gets a Lively Lesson

We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out this summer, it is going to be a recovery in the statistics and not in the things that count, such as income and employment. This week we look at the nascent recovery (which could be at 3% this quarter) and try to peer out into the future to see what it means. We look at how recoveries come about, and why I am concerned that we will see a double-dip recession. Plus, I learned some new tricks courtesy of my new granddaughter, to whom Tiffani gave birth this week1 There is a lot to cover, but it should be interesting.

But first, a quick commercial nod to my subscription service, “Conversations with John.” It was one year ago this week we launched the service, and we are pleased that so many of you have subscribed. As a bonus for renewing or subscribing, I am going to be doing a special predictions issue, where I will interview at least six analysts who have been right the past few years and ask for their specific predictions for the coming year.

For new readers, this is where I sit down with some of my friends and hold an in-depth conversation, generally 45 minutes to an hour, and post it on our web site, along with a transcript. We have had some fairly well-known names over the past year, and the reviews from subscribers have been excellent.

As a Holiday Special, we are offering a subscription at the special price of $129. Just click on the link and type in the code JM09 when asked to do so in the subscription process (at the conclusion of the process, not the beginning, but we’re working on that.) This is a big savings over the regular $199 price. Just click on the link to learn more and see what subscribers are saying. http://www.johnmauldin.com/newsletters2.html

Plus, when you subscribe you get access to the Conversation archives. That is worth the price of admission…
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Weak consumer spending will last for years

This is an excellent overview of our economic situation.  Edward goes beyond consumer spending and discusses debt, capacity, a "balance sheet recession," inflation, deflation, retail sales, commercial real estate, government policy, a statistical recovery and the new normal. - Ilene  

Weak consumer spending will last for years

consumer spendingCourtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

It has been my thesis for some time that we are seeing a secular change in consumption patterns in the United States.  This will have grave implications for a world economy used to seeing the American consumer as an economic growth engine and consumer of first choice. Retail sales in the United States have fallen 10% since peaking in November 2007. Much of this decline represents a permanent fall in consumption by overly indebted American consumers.

Having finally had a chance to dissect the retail sales data from last week, I wanted to show you a few graphs which indicate how much consumption has fallen in the present downturn and what the implication is for the future global economy. But, first, I want to start with a broader discussion as to why the fall in US consumption is a longer-term change and not a cyclical one.

The Balance Sheet Recession

Numerous economies seem on there way to recovery: Germany and France, Singapore, and Hong Kong, to name a few, have all posted positive economic growth.  China looks likely to hit its 2009 growth target of 8%. But, the U.S., generally assumed to be a leader in recovery, is looking like a laggard.  Mind you, there are other laggards like Spain and Ireland too.  Why are these countries lagging?  The Balance Sheet Recession.

debtNomura’s Chief Economist Richard Koo wrote a book last year called “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics” which introduced the concept of a balance sheet recession, which explains economic behaviour in the United States during the Great Depression and Japan during its Lost Decade.  He explains the factor connecting those two episodes was a consistent desire of economic agents (in this case, businesses) to reduce debt even in the face of massive monetary accommodation.

When debt levels are enormous, as they are right now in the United States, an economic downturn becomes existential for a great many forcing people to reduce debt.…
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ValueWalk

Bitcoin Investors Buys The Dip But The Dip Kept On Dipping

By Eloise Williams. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In the world of cryptocurrency it is exciting and challenging all at the same time. Investors are realizing that this currency could be the way of the future. But in the recent weeks Bitcoin has dropped a significant amount.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Disclaimer: This is a satirical article.

Investors Dump Money In Bitcoin

Some investors frantically sol...



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Phil's Favorites

Indiscriminate selling

 

Indiscriminate selling

Courtesy of 

There are a few green stocks in the market today, and by “a few”, I mean you can count them on two hands and still have a few fingers left over. To gag yourself with. Those green stocks are things like Kohl’s (a special situation takeover story) and then it’s like grocery stores and shoe cobblers. That’s really it. Tesla is being absolutely mangled, which tells you which type of mutual funds and ETFs are being redeemed (liquidated?) today.

I have some buy limit orders in at completely out...



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Zero Hedge

Asian EM Stocks Clubbed Into Corrections As Monetary Tightening Takes Away Punch Bowl

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Major equity indexes in Asia are approaching or have already entered corrections as central banks (ex-China) prepare to hike this year. 

On Tuesday, Andrew Tilton, the chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs, told clients that Asian central banks (ex-China) would join the so-called "normalization train" with other monetary authorities and begin to hike interest rates in the second half of the year. 

Tilton points out that emerging market policy tightening is well underway. This means EM assets will face a challenging macro backdrop as elevated valuation...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases

 

How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases

Nucleic acid vaccines use mRNA to give cells instructions on how to produce a desired protein. Libre de Droit/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Deborah Fuller, University of Washington

The two most successful coronavirus vaccines developed in the U.S. – the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines – are both mRNA vaccines. The idea of using genetic material to produce an immune response has opened up a world of research ...



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Politics

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine - and why the US is involved

 

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine – and why the US is involved

Courtesy of Tatsiana Kulakevich, University of South Florida

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Jan. 19, 2022, that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine, and cautioned Russian president Vladimir Putin that he “will regret having done it,” following months of building tension.

Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine over the past several months.

In mid-January, Russia began moving ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq Erases 7 months of Gains With Sharp Decline! Just Getting Started???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech wreck has been fast and furious. And considering that the stock market correction is still relatively new, we really don’t know if it will end soon or carry on for weeks/months.

Today’s chart is “linear” and takes a long-term “monthly” view. As you can see, the Nasdaq Composite Index registered a bearish monthly reversal at the top of the channel at (1).

And in the first 21-days of the year, this broad index of technology stocks has wiped out the prior 7 months of gains!...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.