Posts Tagged ‘statistical recovery’

US Rail Traffic “Statistical Recovery”

US Rail Traffic "Statistical Recovery"

Courtesy of Mish

US Rail traffic is improving on a year over year basis, but looks are deceiving as the comparison is against very feeble 2009 traffic. Let’s take a look at Railfax Data through April 24, 2010.

Total US Rail Traffic

The table shows the 4 week rolling average of auto traffic is up 32% from a year ago. However, auto traffic is still down 31.8% compared to 2008.

The same holds true for metals, up a whopping 71% from a year ago, yet down 18.5% from two years ago.

13 Week Rolling Averages – Year Over Year Comparisons

Please refer to the article for still more charts.

Traffic is up, but only based on anemic comparisons. This is what’s known as a statistical recovery. By the way, it took trillions of dollars of global stimulus to generate that "recovery". Guess what happens when the stimulus stops?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


Tags: , ,




JOHN MAULDIN: 40% CORRECTION COMING

JOHN MAULDIN: 40% CORRECTION COMING

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors LLC talks about the potential for a recession in 2011 and a 40% decline.  I can’t recall too many market calls from Mr. Mauldin (or perhaps I haven’t been paying close enough attention), but this is a bold one:


Tags: , , , ,




Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery

Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery

Rock Salt: Miners at

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts from the Frontline

Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery
Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics
The Problem of Seasonal Adjustments
The Job Creation Engine
A Double-Dip Recession?
Dad Gets a Lively Lesson

We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out this summer, it is going to be a recovery in the statistics and not in the things that count, such as income and employment. This week we look at the nascent recovery (which could be at 3% this quarter) and try to peer out into the future to see what it means. We look at how recoveries come about, and why I am concerned that we will see a double-dip recession. Plus, I learned some new tricks courtesy of my new granddaughter, to whom Tiffani gave birth this week1 There is a lot to cover, but it should be interesting.

But first, a quick commercial nod to my subscription service, “Conversations with John.” It was one year ago this week we launched the service, and we are pleased that so many of you have subscribed. As a bonus for renewing or subscribing, I am going to be doing a special predictions issue, where I will interview at least six analysts who have been right the past few years and ask for their specific predictions for the coming year.

For new readers, this is where I sit down with some of my friends and hold an in-depth conversation, generally 45 minutes to an hour, and post it on our web site, along with a transcript. We have had some fairly well-known names over the past year, and the reviews from subscribers have been excellent.

As a Holiday Special, we are offering a subscription at the special price of $129. Just click on the link and type in the code JM09 when asked to do so in the subscription process (at the conclusion of the process, not the beginning, but we’re working on that.) This is a big savings over the regular $199 price. Just click on the link to learn more and see what subscribers are saying. http://www.johnmauldin.com/newsletters2.html

Plus, when you subscribe you get access to the Conversation archives. That is worth the price of admission…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




Weak consumer spending will last for years

This is an excellent overview of our economic situation.  Edward goes beyond consumer spending and discusses debt, capacity, a "balance sheet recession," inflation, deflation, retail sales, commercial real estate, government policy, a statistical recovery and the new normal. - Ilene  

Weak consumer spending will last for years

consumer spendingCourtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

It has been my thesis for some time that we are seeing a secular change in consumption patterns in the United States.  This will have grave implications for a world economy used to seeing the American consumer as an economic growth engine and consumer of first choice. Retail sales in the United States have fallen 10% since peaking in November 2007. Much of this decline represents a permanent fall in consumption by overly indebted American consumers.

Having finally had a chance to dissect the retail sales data from last week, I wanted to show you a few graphs which indicate how much consumption has fallen in the present downturn and what the implication is for the future global economy. But, first, I want to start with a broader discussion as to why the fall in US consumption is a longer-term change and not a cyclical one.

The Balance Sheet Recession

Numerous economies seem on there way to recovery: Germany and France, Singapore, and Hong Kong, to name a few, have all posted positive economic growth.  China looks likely to hit its 2009 growth target of 8%. But, the U.S., generally assumed to be a leader in recovery, is looking like a laggard.  Mind you, there are other laggards like Spain and Ireland too.  Why are these countries lagging?  The Balance Sheet Recession.

debtNomura’s Chief Economist Richard Koo wrote a book last year called “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics” which introduced the concept of a balance sheet recession, which explains economic behaviour in the United States during the Great Depression and Japan during its Lost Decade.  He explains the factor connecting those two episodes was a consistent desire of economic agents (in this case, businesses) to reduce debt even in the face of massive monetary accommodation.

When debt levels are enormous, as they are right now in the United States, an economic downturn becomes existential for a great many forcing people to reduce debt.…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Movie theaters are on life support - how will the film industry adapt?

 

Movie theaters are on life support – how will the film industry adapt?

A movie theater in Brea, Calif., has shuttered its doors due to the coronavirus pandemic. AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

Courtesy of Matthew Jordan, Pennsylvania State University

Since the start of the pandemic, the film industry has been in free fall.

As deaths have continued to climb, ...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Wearable fitness devices deliver early warning of possible COVID-19 infection

 

Wearable fitness devices deliver early warning of possible COVID-19 infection

Fitness information from wearable devices can reveal when the body is fighting an infection. Nico De Pasquale Photography/Stone via Getty Images

Courtesy of Albert H. Titus, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

The difficulty many people have getting tested for SARS-CoV-2 and delays in receiving test results make early warning of possible COVID-19 infections all the more important, and ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Zero Hedge

Fake ID Seizures, Mostly From China, On the Rise

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Petr Svab via the Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has been seizing an increasing number of fake IDs, including driver’s licenses, in recent years. Most come from China and are good enough to fool an average person, an agency official said.

...

more from Tyler

ValueWalk

Value Does Not Have To Mean Cheap: ANGI A Good Example

By Jonathan Boyar. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It’s a scenario value investors dream about: a growing company whose shares are selling at a statistically cheap price. Of course, these types of stocks can be hard to find—and the search for them may lead you straight into a value trap. But just as a stock selling for a low valuation doesn’t always mean a bargain, a richly valued stock doesn’t always mean value investors ought to automatically look elsewhere. The Boyar Value Group recently identified one high multiple stock that may be worth paying up for. Keep reading to find out more.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, con...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

History Says Gold Correction Could Lead to Big Rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Over a decade ago, Gold rallied past its 1980 highs and over $1000/oz at (1) on today’s chart.

That rise to new highs was met with a 30 percent correction at (2), followed by a blast off rally to new highs.

Is gold setting up for a repeat of its past?

Gold recently rallied past its 2011 highs and above $2000/oz. Could Gold soon turn lower for a sharp correction before another blast off toward $3000?

If so, Gold bulls should look for a pullback, before blasting higher. Stay tuned!

This article was first written fo...



more from Kimble C.S.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.






XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.





SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image i...



more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



more from Bitcoin

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



more from Our Members

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.