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The Oxen Report: $10000 Buy Pick Virtual Portfolio Up 43% This Year, Gained 22% in June; Short Sell Virtual Portfolio Up Nearly 10%

June was a terrific month for the Oxen Report. I thought I would update everyone on how our three virtual portfolios are doing. Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Virtual Portfolio for 2010 is up 43% so far this year with 64 trades. We have gotten 48 of these 64 actionable trades correct, giving the virtual portfolio a 75% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio is up nearly 10% thus far this year on 36 trades, and it has a 75% success rate as well with 27 correct trades. Finally, we have a new virtual portfolio that just started in May for Long Term Investments. The virtual portfolio is not one that needs to be updated on a daily basis, but we will continue to watch for developments that would change my thoughts on our fair value estimates for them. Our 2009 virtual portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.

The way that my virtual portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account virtual portfolio for June of 2010 is available. The virtual portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – May, click here.

 

The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Virtual Portfolio

06/01/2010 – 06/03/2010 QZK 4.6 4.78 4.00% 101.62


2906.87 11954.13
06/02/10 HOV 6 6.18 3.00% 68.5 2619.62


12022.63
06/02/2010 – 06/03/2010 XIDE 4 5.45 36.25% 1095.45   4142.5     13118.08
06/07/10 LUV 11.99 11.66 -3.00% -100.4     3260.42   13017.68
06/07/2010 – 06/09/10 MW 18.54 19.44 4.80% 132.4       3039.27 13150.08
06/08/2010 – 06/09/10 MTN 37.35 38.2 2.25% 51.5 2671.12       13201.58
06/09/10 – 06/11/10 NSM 13.32 13.72 3.00% 116   4258.5     13317.58
06/14/2010 – 6/17/10 WGO 11.25 12.73 12.25% 390.82     3651.24   13708.4
06/14/10 AVNW 3.96 4.06 2.75% 68.7       3107.97 13777.1
06/16/10 DRV 6.1 6.22 2.00% 44.44 2715.56       13821.54
06/17/2010 – 06/21/10 JBL 13.56 14.1 4.13% 167.84   4426.34     13989.38
06/21/2010 – 06/24/10 LEN 14.8 15.05 1.69% 53.5     3597.74   13945.88
06/21/2010 – 06/24/10 LEN 14.56 15.05 3.37% 96.37       3204.34 14042.25
06/22/2010 – 06/23/10 JBL 13.8 14.88 9.00% 203.68 2919.24       14245.93
06/23/2010 – 06/24/10 DFS 13.8 14.42 4.50% 190.4   4616.74     14436.33
06/24/2010 – 06/29/10 MU 9.66 9.64 -0.21% -15.44     3582.3   14420.89
06/28/2010 -07/01/10 SCHN 42.5 40.43 -4.87% -163.25       3041.09 14257.64
06/29/2010 – 07/01/10 SCHN 40.2 40.43 0.32% 1.36 2920.4       14259
06/29/2010 – 07/01/10 WOR 13.4 12.9 -3.73% -180   4436.74     14079

 

The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio, which is up 10% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Virtual Portfolio. The only difference is that the Virtual Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.

06/03/10 ERY 11.6 11.4 2.00% 36 2596.66     8109.59
06/07/10 BMY 24.35 23.87 2.00% 44.32   2720.61   8153.91
06/16/10 BHP 68.25 67.75 -0.75% -28.5     2809.81 8125.41
06/18/10 TSO 12.16 12.5 -2.75% -80.42 2516.24     8044.99
06/22/10 ARBA 16.4 16.9 3.00% 74.5   2795.11   8119.49
06/24/10 ERY 11 11.33 -3.00% -92.15     2717.76 8027.34
06/28/10 – 06/29/10 NWS 14.68 14.25 3.00% 65.53 2581.77     8092.87
06/29/10 SMSC 24.75 23.46 5.00% 136.48   2931.59   8229.35

 

Long Term Virtual Portfolio

This virtual portfolio is our only blemish. The rough second half of June hurt these positions, but I expect them all to bounce back.

Date of Entry Stock Entry Price Current Price % Change Fair Value Estimate
05/27/10 TSL 17.65 20.52 16.25% $30.00
06/04/10 GMCR 24.05 26.33 -9.50% $15.63
06/14/10 CAAS 18.3 16.5 -9.84% $28.78
06/18/10 JWN 38.65 33.42 -12.50% $52.00
06/25/10 JCI 27.5 27.46 -0.15% $46.25

 

 

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Comments


  1. RussianQ

    apparently JCG is also missing

  2. David Ristau

    Russian -

    FDO was in July. I must have missed JCG as I was going through.

  3. chip

     David nice year so far. I had a horrible June after deploying 50% cash in the middle of the month. I am basically flat for the year now. Guess it could be worse but wishing I had been trading with you since Jan. As you know I’m relatively new to PSW…any advice on how approach things now would be appreciated. Chip

  4. David Ristau

    Chip -

    Yeah just follow my trades for a bit to see what they are all about and do some of your own research. When you feel comfortable, pull the trigger. I would start to play my trades with a weekly play. It is the easiest and least time consuming. Let me know if you have any questions.

  5. hia_5

    gEE YOU NEVER LOST MONEY ON A TRADE ???  INTERESTKING

  6. David Ristau

    Hia -

    Well I did, and each position corresponds with stories I wrote that you can fact check with down to the minute…no lies here.

  7. millstone99

    So much for JASO…

  8. SaiRam

    David,
    what to do with JASO

  9. millstone99

    My second short sell on David’s recommendation, and my second disaster. I think I’ll avoid them from now on.

  10. millstone99

    I’m guessing it’s going to gap up and then fall. What do you think, David?

  11. SaiRam

    David
    Are you still holding JASO

  12. millstone99

    I dumped it.

  13. millstone99

    David, where are you when we need you? Hopefully preparing a boffo overnight pick… To help make up our losses.

  14. hazeltine

    I’m still holding JASO.  I’m in at 5.45.

  15. David Ristau

    Millstone -

    You act like all I do is make terrible picks. You have made money with me. I’m not a prophet. I have criteria that I go by and usually it works…sometimes it doesn’t. JASO didn’t work. I am sorry I wasn’t around, but I had some family matters to attend to this morning.

    For everyone else -

    I got stopped out this morning on it at the open at 5.68…not a good one.

     

    We are having a bit of a rough start to the week. I am going to work on a new trade.

  16. millstone99

    Sorry, David, don’t mean to rag on you. Just painful to have two losses in a row.

  17. jeanc

    Great job David,
    I’ve been following your picks for a year and I can assure you that I would not be here if you did not have a good performing portfolio. I follow four different offerings like yours and you are right at the top with another one.  Pretty good in my book.
    I must admit I don’t take all of your recommendations, responding to my own concerns and preferences as I see fit.
    But, whatever the outcome, I take responsibility for all of my trades. The good ones and the bad ones.
    I consider you a terrific partner to trade with.
    John

  18. millstone99

    I accept the underhanded criticism.

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