Archive for February, 2012

Visualizing GDP

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the Q4 GDP Second Estimate.

The chart below is my way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. I’ve used a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself.

My data source for this chart is the Excel file accompanying the BEA’s latest GDP news release (see the links in the right column). Specifically, I used Table 2: Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product.



Over the time frame of this chart, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) component has shown the most consistent correlation with real GDP itself. When PCE has been positive, GDP has been positive, and vice versa. The contribution of PCE came at 1.52 of the 2.98 real GDP. This is an improvement over the 1.24 PCE contribution to the 1.82 Q3 GDP. But the largest GDP contributor in Q4 was gross private domestic investment.

Note: GDP is normally rounded to one decimal place, currently at 3.0. The 2.98 GDP in the chart above is the sum of the four components expressed to two decimal places in Table 2. Real GDP calculated to two decimal places based on the BEA chained 2005 dollar amounts in Table 3 of the Excel file is likewise 2.98.

For a long-term view of the role of personal consumption in GDP and how it has increased over time, here is a snapshot of the PCE-to-GDP ratio since the inception of quarterly GDP in 1947.



I’ll update these charts when the Third Estimate of Q4 2011 GDP is released on March 29th.





Only 54% Of Young Adults In America Have A Job

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A month ago, Zero Hedge readers were stunned to learn that unemployment among Europe’s young adults has exploded as a result of the European financial crisis, and peaking anywhere between 46% in the case of Greece all they way to 51% for Spain. Which makes us wonder what the reaction will be to the discovery that when it comes to young adults (18-24) in the US, the employment rate is just barely above half, or 54%, which just happens to be the lowest in 64 years, and 7% worse than when Obama took office promising a whole lot of change 3 years ago.

And while technically this means 46% are unemployed, or the same percentage as in Greece, the US ratio, which comes from Pew, shows the ratio as a % of the total population: a very sensitive topic now that every month we see another 250,000 drop off mysteriously from the total labor force. However, unlike those on the trailing age end, young adults by definition are the labor force in their age group demographic, so it would be difficult to explain away this horrendous number by claiming that ever more 24 year olds are retiring. Although, yes, we agree that some may be dropping out of the labor force in order to go to college, incidentally the locus of the latest credit bubble, where they meet a fate worse even than secular unemployment: they become debt slaves of the Federal System, with non-dischargable debt at that, which even assuming they can get a job would take ages to pay back!

But wait: there’s more – of all age groups, this is the one that has actually seen its wages drop the most under the Obama administration.

So not only are they unemployed, young adults are at least poor.

Net result: double the change, zero the hope.


Sean Corrigan Crucifies MMT

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While hardly needing a full-on onslaught by an Austrian thinker, when even some fairly simplistic reductio ad abusrdum thought experiments should suffice (boosting global GDP by a few million percent simply by building a death star comes to mind), Diapason’s Sean Corrigan has decided to take MMT, also known as “Modern Monetary Theory”, to the woodshed in his latest missive in a grammatical, syntaxic (replete with the usual 200+ word multi-clause sentences) and stylistic juggernaut, that only Corrigan is capable of. So sit back in that easy chair, grab your favorite bottle of rehypothecated Ouzo, and let the monetary hate wash through you.

Money, Macro and Markets

by Sean Corrigan of Diapason Commodities Management, and author of the excellent Santayana’s Curse

As regular readers of these scribblings have hopefully come to appreciate, this is not the place to come to slake your thirst for mechanistic ‘models’ and fancy-dan macro-correlation studies (for the technically-minded, this is precluded by the subjectivist, methodological individualism of the Austrian School to which we adhere).

The only exception to this—if, indeed, an exception it is—is to be found in out penchant for mapping out developments in money supply and, in particular, real money supply and relating these to potential changes in the revenue stream percolating through the economic structure and, hence, to their implications for income, returns on invested capital, and the supportability or otherwise of the accumulated debt burden.

To an Austrian, the credit cycle IS the business cycle, while, more generally, the many disruptions to the progressive delivery of greater material satisfaction we suffer —outside of those forcefully visited upon us by the political process—are almost inevitably the result of some unlooked-for departure in the rate of provision of new money from that to which people had become accustomed. Just occasionally  it is not the supply itself, but rather some unwonted alteration to the eagerness with which money’s recipients hold on to that which comes their way which brings about these changes. In other words, every once in a while it may be a question of a changed appetite for, rather than a changed helping of, cash-at-hand which occasions a disruption. Such departures are hard to pick up from an inspection of the raw data, making their interpretation both more challenging and more a matter of…
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Ron Paul Defeats Obama In Head To Head Polling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Here’s a chart you won’t see anywhere in the mainstream media – not the right, and certainly not the left. According to Rasmussen’s 2012 Presidential Election Matchups, which pit Obama against any of the four GOP presidential candidates, while the balance of challengers certainly appear to have no chance of defeating the incumbent (something we touched upon yesterday), today, for the first time, Ron Paul has managed to unseat the standing president, by a thin margin of 43 to 41, for the first time in this series.

Source: Rasmussen Reports (premium subscription required)

On the survey methodology: “Surveys covering three days are of 1,500 Likely Voters and Surveys of Two Days are of 1,000 Likely Voters. All Surveys Have a Margin of Error of +/- 3% .”

Some more from today’s Rasmussen blog:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 25% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).


Just 19% favor increased U.S. involvement in Syria.  The Obama administration receives mixed reviews for handling that situation to date.


On the energy front, 58% believe that free market competition is the best way to get gas prices down. Just 27% think government regulations are a better approach. However, 67% believe that oil companies are using bad news to gouge customers.


In a possible 2012 matchup, Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote, while the president attracts 44%. If Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads by three, 46% to 43%. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern

What is oddly missing is that Ron Paul earns 43% of the vote, to Obama’s 41%.

So on one hand Ron Paul defeats the president head to head, and on the other, the GOP itself tells us he is a distant third to two frontrunners who frankly make one question the sanity of every American voter?

Guest Post: And The Douchebag Of The Year Award Goes To……

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mark McHugh from Across the Street

And The Douchebag Of The Year Award Goes To……

Unless February 29th is the new April Fool’s Day, I’m pretty sure  Alan Dlugash locked up DOTY with this remark:

People who don’t have money don’t understand the stress.   Could you imagine what it’s like to say I got three kids in private school, I have to think about pulling them out?   How do you do that?”

Dluglash is describing the horror of scraping by on $350,000 a year.   Really.  How could you lucky bastards ever understand?

Ordinary Americans, with their fancy foodstamps and foreclosure notices, are increasingly turning a blind eye to the plight of the people who outsourced their jobs.  You  just don’t get it, do you?    These people are light years smarter than you, and they work really hard.  Now things are so dire, some are actually considering sending their kids to school with your germy kids.   It’s bad.

Some have even been forced to shop for discount Salmon.  How could people who enjoy cat food ever understand that kind of humiliation?  If someone doesn’t halt this death spiral soon they may have to settle for Microsoft products (which even poor people hate).  

This is all a joke, right?  Cause if it’s not, wait ’til they find out about Walmart….


UK Parliament Member Lord James of Blackheath Alleges 15 Trillion Dollar Fraud Involving the Fed and Imaginary Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

British Parliament member Lord James of Blackheath has alleged in a speech before Parliament an elaborate fraud involving the US government lying about hundreds of thousands of tons of imaginary gold, illegal wire transfers and loans totaling $15 trillion:

We have no idea whether Lord James is onto something big … or has fallen prey to the equivalent of a Nigerian internet scam.

As the Independent notes:

The House of Lords was treated to a 10-minute speech last week by Lord James of Blackheath, from whom we have not heard much since he announced in 2010 that he was in touch with Foundation X, a “genuine and sincere” secret organisation that wanted to lend the British government £75bn.

David James was a City businessman commissioned by the Tories, in opposition, to report on ways of eliminating government waste. Last week, the 74-year-old peer was exercised about a story he has picked up that $15trn – that is $15,000,000,000,000 – belonging to “the richest man in the world”, Yohannes Riyadi, was deposited in 2009 in the Royal Bank of Scotland. Lord James said he remains baffled after a two-year pursuit of the story, but has all the information on a memory stick, which he is offering to hand over to the Government.

His documents include a letter from the Bank of Indonesia telling him the whole story is a “complete fabrication”. He took his concerns to the Treasury minister, Lord Sassoon, who said: “This is rubbish. It is far too much money. It’d stick out like a sore thumb and you can’t see it in the RBS accounts.”

And an alert Financial Times blogger said that had Lord James googled “Yohannes Riyadi”, the first item to come up would be a warning from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that the name is part of an internet scam designed to get money from the gullible. Two agents are trying to trace who is behind it. Perhaps Lord James should offer his memory stick.

Complete Paulson 2011 Letter

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There are those who voraciously, and blindly, read any and all hedge fund reports, allowing the already useless information to enter one brain hemisphere and exit the other, just so they can brag that they read such and such’s monthly or year end letter. Frankly, we pity them, especially when in their attempt to ape success they confuse luck (which is responsible for 99% of hedge fund outliers) for skill, and in doing so constrain their minds even more. At least hopefully they don’t spend money on self-improvement books. As for trading recommendations, by the time an idea is in writing, the time to implement it is long gone. Anyway, for precisely this subet of people we provide the Paulson 2011 year end letter. Which is 102 pages. It is amazing how when one is printing money, one can get away with two paragraphs of year end ruminations and the LPs will be delighted. When, however one has brought AUM from $32 billion to under $20 billion net of redemptions, much more reading material is required to justify the 2 and 20, especially if the proceeds are used to invest in AAPL (and speaking of Apple, we wonder how long before the company starts charging a fee of 2 and 20 from all of its shareholders). We won’t spend much time dissecting the letter of a fund which blindly invested nearly half a billion in a company that two kids with an office exposed as fraud, suffice to copy and paste the following gem: “We believe this outperformance demonstrates our superior security analysis and selection due to our research edge.” Yup, mmmhmmm. All this and much more in the enclosed paperweight.

Incidentally, when we said 10 days ago that we have “Horrible News For Goldbugs – Paulson Is Bullish On Gold Again“, we were not kidding:

And so the Paulson overhang is back. Couldn’t Paulson just go ahead and buy Bank of America or some other worthless biohazard again? All that remains is for Roubini to say he prefers gold over spam (and always has, he was merely “misunderstood”) and the crash will be imminent.


Or perhaps we will learn following the next $1000 up move in gold that Gartman will have been long gold in

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NYT: No Criminal Case, But MF Global May Possibly Face a Fine of Up To $140,000

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain 

As Janet Tavakoli said the other day, the media coverage of this scandal has been a comedic lightweight fly by that no one in the know could possibly take seriously. 

And as Chris Whalen said, we always have known where the money ended up. And that is a big part of the problem. Corzine is Too Big to Jail and the Banks are Too Big To Fail.

Perfect illustration of the credibility trap that is destroying the economy.

Now the elite New York Times chimes in with its own version of the mysteriously vaporizing, blameless money meme. Maybe someone should look in Judge Crater's pockets, or Jimmy Hoffa's wallet.

Et tu, Gray Lady?

As I said, I have now given up all hope of justice being done in this case. But I think obtaining some of the stolen customer money back from the banks and MF Global Holdings is still possible.

We're not in Kansas anymore, Toto. Smells more like 1920's Chicago.

What we need are The Untouchables, honest public servants not compromised in the web of a credibility trap.

Doubtful Signs of a Criminal Case Against MF Global
February 28, 2012, 8:45 pm

Federal authorities are struggling to find evidence to support a criminal case stemming from the collapse of MF Global, even after a federal grand jury in Chicago has issued subpoenas.

Investigators, unable to find a smoking gun amid thousands of e-mails and documents, increasingly suspect that chaos and poor risk control systems prompted the disappearance of more than $1 billion in customer money, according to several people involved in the case.   (Are these the emails that the lawyer for the Creditors in the bankrputcy case had sole possession of for months?  Vaporization by honest sloppiness – Jesse)

When the money first went missing, prosecutors in New York and Chicago scrambled to stake a claim. Now, four months later, both Preet S. Bharara, the United States attorney in Manhattan, and Patrick J. Fitzgerald, his counterpart in Chicago, are shying away from leading the case, one of those people involved in the case said.

Indeed, a number of federal prosecutors have expressed doubts to others involved in the case that anyone at MF Global — including the firm’s chief executive, Jon S. Corzine, and back-office employees in Chicago — intentionally

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Real GDP Per Capita and the Year-over-Year Change

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: This morning we learned that the Second Estimate for Q4 real GDP came in at 3.0%, up from the Advance Estimate of 2.8%. The latest data does not significantly change the long term view of real per-capita GDP, but it did slightly decrease the recession warning implicit in the latest real GDP year-over-year percent change, now at 1.62%, a fractional improvement over the Advance Release YoY 1.56%, which was an improvement over the 1.46% YoY as of the Third Estimate of the previous quarter.

My monthly updates on GDP and its revisions feature column charts illustrating real GDP. These have the advantage of highlighting the patterns of change and the correlation between negative GDP and recessions.



Real GDP Per-Capita Growth

For a better understanding of the historical context, here is a chart of real GDP per-capita growth since 1960. For this analysis I’ve chained in current dollars for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on the mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence my 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data series is available in the FRED series POPTHM. I used quarterly population averages for the per-capita divisor. Recessions are highlighted in gray. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale.



The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the Great Recession. In fact, at this point, 14 quarters beyond the 2007 GDP peak, real GDP per capita is as far off the all-time high as the trough that followed the recession in the early 1990s. We can also see…
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Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on March 30, 2012

The S&P 500 closed February with a gain of 4.06% from the January close. All three index signals indicated an invested position. See the specifics here.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.

Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the precise top or back in at the very bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve experienced this summer.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops.

A look back at the 10- and 12-month moving averages in the…
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Phil's Favorites

The Biggest Risk of a Clinton Presidency


The Biggest Risk of a Clinton Presidency

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism

Hillary Clinton will be a one term President. The reason I say this is because I suspect that her economic plan will not be very stimulative and I think that four more years of weak economic growth will be intolerable. And the main driver of my thinking here is deeply rooted in Bill Clinton’s presidency.

Back in the late 90’s the US government ran a brief budget surplus. It was heralded as an act of “fiscal responsibility” at the time. Of course, when the economy tanked immediately following the surplus the government was driven back in the red as tax receipts cratered and automatic spending jumped.


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Zero Hedge

Chinese Politician Given Suspended Death Sentence After 200 Million Yuan In Cash Was Found In His Apartment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When corrupt Chinese oligarchs and politicians are unable to transfer millions in illegally obtained funds offshore they resort to the next best option: storing the money in the form of cold, hard cash stashed away inside their apartments. However, this is a rather risky proposition as one of them found out when investigators, along with a live-rolling media crew, showed up at his apartment where he had managed to conceal over 200 million yuan in cash.

As Sha...

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Global Asset Management 3Q16 - Cash is a Capital Allocation Strategy

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Global Asset Management commentary for the quarter ended September 30, 2016.

Also see


Dear Friends,

Year-to-date we’v...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The Brexit economy: falling pound and rising inflation fuel fears of slowdown (The Guardian)

The British economy’s post-Brexit vote bounce is losing momentum as the weak pound and higher inflation herald a squeeze in living standards, according to a Guardian analysis.

S&P 500 Skew Unwind Shows Complacency Over Clinton Win: Analysis (Bloomberg)


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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks- This is putting a smile on this sector

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Historically, when strong bull markets have taken place, Banks go along for the ride. Since the summer of 2014, banks have under performed the broad market by around 12%, as the S&P is just a couple of percent from all-time highs. Are banks about to act healthier and put a smile on this sector, which could help the S&P breakout above the 2,150 level?

Below looks at the Bank Index (BKX)



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 23, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

A sleepy week indeed as almost all the “action” came out of a gap up Tuesday morning and a gap down Friday morning (which was met with buyers).  Outside of those events, the indexes stuck closely to unchanged most of the week.  Earnings began in earnest but outside of some individual high profile stories it was a lot of beating lowered expectations.

“Despite a couple of good reports, we’re in the midst of another earnings season that is hardly painting a bright picture,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Having another quarter where profits contract is not an underpinning for stocks to advance, and the market is searching for, if not demanding, a catalyst to move higher. At the moment, one is lackin...

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Members' Corner

The Orlando Massacre Part 3

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

A continuation of a Naybob of IT's Natterings from Part 1 and Part 2...

While many Christian churches expressed grief and offered free funeral services for the victims of the Orlando shooting, the fundamentalist Westboro Baptist Church held an anti-gay protest during the funeral of the victims.

But the Westboro Baptist Church's protest rally was blocked by about 200 people who formed a human barricade on the main street in downtown Orlando, ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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